Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[era_shield]

Every minute is a loss,Assad getting closer to UAE/KSA every day,the YPG close to striking a deal with Assad which would mean that Trump made a ''Master'' move,he will use the GCC to protect the YPG and hit my country.
Im sure the 3 months departure time was demanded by the US from Erdogan.
In this timeframe,the KSA/UAE and Israel/US will have made a deal with Assad and the YPG,which means we are out and Russia will follow.
That is the only reason why the French are staying.
Try telling explaining that to the BLiND dumb idiot Erdogan fanboys.

Now's a good time to review your genius opinions about past operations: -

We wont take al-Bab at all,they will come up with an excuse of a deal made so that the SAA can take it.
''Its their country,let them take it'' kind of statement.

Not sounding so smart today, eh?

It is political,you are right but why the fvck do they come with these empty words,''Afrin operation blah blah'' when nothing is ever going to happen.

Words of a genius, eh?

This is the problem with the world - it's got too many idiots who are proven wrong over and over again but still they delude themselves into thinking that those whom oppose them are the idiots.

 

[Khagan1923]

Erdogans statement are actually very clever.

It counters YPG narrative „we will stop fighting against ISIS when Turkey attacks us“ which in truth was to cover their inability to fight against ISIS alone without any help by American soldiers and airstrikes. But now they have no choice but to fight because Erdoğan took away their excuse, he dismantled their narrative they were building up.


The whole world will be watching them now fight against ISIS on their „own“ and the whole world will see their incompetence as ISIS will steamroll through them. YPG biggest fear is becoming reality. Their lies and incompetence will be on full display for the world, pictures of burned out YPG Humvees will be shared on the internet for everybody to see. Turkey attacking them would have been as bad but they at least could have built a narrative. Now they can’t even do that.



Assad doesn’t have the manpower to occupy anything in the east other than oil fields. They have barely enough young children for Idlip. What do you think will happen the second Assad pulls majority of its militants towards the east? The rebels groups not under our control will start an offensive. That’s how you keep everybody in line. Israel will use it to bomb every single Iranian, Syrian base maybe even invade further than the golen heights. Assad doesn’t have shit to pressure anybody with. Not Turkey nor Israel. The second they try something the Turkish Army will steamroll through to Raqqa and suddenly Assad has to deal with rebels who occupy half of the country, his worst nightmare.

 

[striver44]

It seems that all of the Eastern Euphrates will be cleaned including ISIS pockets (Deir Ezzor area) if Assad don't do it first.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076103359898243072

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076118953506885632

 

[Taskforce]

Assad doesn’t have the force to pull a military operation similar to what Turkey was planning.

If YPG joins Assad’s forces it will mean that on the long term there will still be a threat to Turkey and Assad could, just like his father use this Syrian PKK against Turkey.

On the other hand if we do invade north Syria and make all the sacrifices in men and material, what would the point be? Can’t keep north Syria because we are in the same boat as Russia and Iran.

Seems like the only option is that Turkey makes a deal with Assad so that he gives guarantees that PKK in Syria is uprooted. Difficult task because a lot of Syrians don’t trust Turkey anymore.

 

[Taskforce]

Basically Erdogan said this today: we have to make a deal with Assad.

Something we said for ages but for some reason some thick headed people weren’t getting.

For Turkey the priority should be this
-refugees should be able to return without fear of prosecution
-no fragmentation of Syria

And that is about it. If that means we have to pay war reparations to Syria so be it. Or even handing out the Turkish politicians who are responsibility for flaming the civil war in Syria. That is a small price to pay for the stability on the southern border and the elimination of the refugee problem in Turkey.

 

[HannibalBarca]

January 8th - Meeting.
If conclusive, OP may follow shortly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076151734085607424

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Maybe this way the Americans will ensure that Assad can't invade regions which will be evacuated by the Americans?

 

[HannibalBarca]

Maybe this way the Americans will ensure that Assad can't invade regions which will be evacuated by the Americans?

For that you will need a Transfer of "Rule" or at least a bilateral ruling put in place, and maybe incoming meeting could be for that.
Otherwise, an OP from North to South + a Sudden Void in Leadership in Deir ez Zor/Raqqa etc... (By US removal) could push Pro-ASSad militia movement in those region with the help of YPG and therefore a lose of influence.

 

[Taskforce]

Maybe this way the Americans will ensure that Assad can't invade regions which will be evacuated by the Americans?

Did you even read Erdogan’s latest comments on Assad?

 

[kartal1]

I think US and French forces will ensure the safety of SDF forces in Deir Ezzor untill we are ready for the operation because leaving the SDF uncontrolled in that way can immediately result in SDF giving areas to DEASH and Assad. I think French troops will conduct patrols close to our borders, Manbij and will support SDF in Deir Ezzor. In that time I think Turkey will work with the local Arab tribes and parts of SDF to recruit them in FSA and later these forces will control parts of the territory while the terrorists will be forced out of the cities and eliminated or forced to surrender. We know that big part of the fighting force in Deir Ezzor is consisted of Arabs so Turkey could coordinate with France on the field acting as advisors and coordinators until the main Turkish forces or its representatives are there. Looking at the terrain the offensive will be on very fast temp and small villages and cities will be taken very fast so advancements to south would be very fast to. Due to the big empty parts it must not be so hard to encircle the big cities while the other forces advance. For sure that operation will be huge and a lot of personnel will be involved. The most interesting parts of the operation for me would be Qamishli, Hasakah and Sinjar area. I don't know why but I am not so excited about Ain Al Arab or Manbij.

 

[blackeyes90]

I think US and French forces will ensure the safety of SDF forces in Deir Ezzor untill we are ready for the operation because leaving the SDF uncontrolled in that way can immediately result in SDF giving areas to DEASH and Assad. I think French troops will conduct patrols close to our borders, Manbij and will support SDF in Deir Ezzor. In that time I think Turkey will work with the local Arab tribes and parts of SDF to recruit them in FSA and later these forces will control parts of the territory while the terrorists will be forced out of the cities and eliminated or forced to surrender. We know that big part of the fighting force in Deir Ezzor is consisted of Arabs so Turkey could coordinate with France on the field acting as advisors and coordinators until the main Turkish forces or its representatives are there. Looking at the terrain the offensive will be on very fast temp and small villages and cities will be taken very fast so advancements to south would be very fast to. Due to the big empty parts it must not be so hard to encircle the big cities while the other forces advance. For sure that operation will be huge and a lot of personnel will be involved. The most interesting parts of the operation for me would be Qamishli, Hasakah and Sinjar area. I don't know why but I am not so excited about Ain Al Arab or Manbij.

I dont think SDF will cooperate with USA for much longer. If they wuld reach an understanding with Damascus they will sell USA before USA sells them. But who knows, this is Syria we are talking about. Nobody can predict what is gonna happen tomorrow in these chaotic land.

 

[TheMightyBender]

Here is my take on this:

• Trump asked Erdogan to wait till US forces evacuate, which is fair.
• According to hurriyet when Trump pledged to retreat from Syria in his phone call with Erdogan, both bolton and Erdogan were surprised.
• Turkey is not ready for such a large scale operation anyways. Only 15000 TFSA soldiers were in the operation planning.
• Turkey delaying an attack on YPG exposes YPG to the world. They will start losing ground to ISIS.
• Delaying the op also prevents Trump from looking like an idiot. Because if YPG got their asses handed to them the day after Trump withdraws, he would be under serious scrutiny.
• Our biggest goal here was to make the US withdraw its support from the YPG, not invade Syria. That is done. So even if we dont invade it is still a big success.
• Delaying the op makes no difference. There is little chance SAA would protect the YPG in exchange for anything. The only remote possibility for YPG to be shielded is for them to hand over their lands to SAA.
• Russia and Iran want the syrian quagmire to end asap, so it is highly unlikely that they will try to protect ypg.
• If ypg hands over territory to saa that eliminates the need to invade in the first place. Remember this is geopolitics, TAF is not there to satisfy the wet dreams of some internet fanboys. Such an operation is a huge undertaking with grave risks and should be avoided if possible. If saa eliminates terrorist rule in northeast syria then so be it.

To sum up the only entity that could come in the way of Turkey attacking ypg is saa. Which in itself cant do it in the first place, because they dont have that kind of power and iran and russia are not willing to back them up. Even if they do come in the way of Turkey it would be by completely overtaking the areas from YPG because saa are not fools who would take such a risk for anything else.

In the off chance that the saa does take over northeastern syria, that means we took care of ypg without firing a single bullet and spending nothing. Since SAA is weak in itself, Turkey could even impose some conditions on saa.

In other words there are two outcomes to this whole issue: win or big win.

Every minute is a loss,Assad getting closer to UAE/KSA every day

Can you provide some sources to back up that claim. I havent seen or heard anything like that claim and I would love to read up.

 

[Oublious]

Funny members talking like they are smart ahaha, if we do or this and then this and that. Pathetic members talking behind ther monitor nothing else, remembers me a coffeehous wher all wortheless people come together and talk how they 'make a mountain of a molehil'.

 

[TheMightyBender]

Funny members talking like they are smart ahaha, if we do or this and then this and that. Pathetic members talking behind ther monitor nothing else, remembers me a coffeehous wher all wortheless people come together and talk how they 'make a mountain of a molehil'.

You do realize that everything you said also applies to yourself, dont you Einstein?

 

[Taskforce]

Here is my take on this:

• Trump asked Erdogan to wait till US forces evacuate, which is fair.
• According to hurriyet when Trump pledged to retreat from Syria in his phone call with Erdogan, both bolton and Erdogan were surprised.
• Turkey is not ready for such a large scale operation anyways. Only 15000 TFSA soldiers were in the operation planning.
• Turkey delaying an attack on YPG exposes YPG to the world. They will start losing ground to ISIS.
• Delaying the op also prevents Trump from looking like an idiot. Because if YPG got their asses handed to them the day after Trump withdraws, he would be under serious scrutiny.
• Our biggest goal here was to make the US withdraw its support from the YPG, not invade Syria. That is done. So even if we dont invade it is still a big success.
• Delaying the op makes no difference. There is little chance SAA would protect the YPG in exchange for anything. The only remote possibility for YPG to be shielded is for them to hand over their lands to SAA.
• Russia and Iran want the syrian quagmire to end asap, so it is highly unlikely that they will try to protect ypg.
• If ypg hands over territory to saa that eliminates the need to invade in the first place. Remember this is geopolitics, TAF is not there to satisfy the wet dreams of some internet fanboys. Such an operation is a huge undertaking with grave risks and should be avoided if possible. If saa eliminates terrorist rule in northeast syria then so be it.

To sum up the only entity that could come in the way of Turkey attacking ypg is saa. Which in itself cant do it in the first place, because they dont have that kind of power and iran and russia are not willing to back them up. Even if they do come in the way of Turkey it would be by completely overtaking the areas from YPG because saa are not fools who would take such a risk for anything else.

In the off chance that the saa does take over northeastern syria, that means we took care of ypg without firing a single bullet and spending nothing. Since SAA is weak in itself, Turkey could even impose some conditions on saa.

In other words there are two outcomes to this whole issue: win or big win.


Can you provide some sources to back up that claim. I havent seen or heard anything like that claim and I would love to read up.

Hold your horses. Waiting months will also mean YPG will trench in and perhaps even mine the place (given by certain countries)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076148301077069829