In last years it is very clear that Turkey experienced very hard economic warfare with some global players because of Erdogan's stand firm, not surrender against f..king USA policy in syria especially and S400, closing to Russia, Venezuela, protecting Qatar, making policy without seeking USA interests. Despite all diffuculties in 2018 Turkey now start to smoothing economical parameters well.
And the country you tried to compare Turkey with, biggest economy in the World ( and biggest gangster state manipulating everything in the way of their economic interests, ex: gangster attitude to huawei)
(It is good to say that in China min. wage 1400 yuan - appx 180 euro, 205 dollars,and every Turks knows well how much the min wage in old days before 2002, AKP ( ERDOGAN).)
Years----------Net Min Wage (TL) (Not Gross) ----------DOLAR Currency (TL)
2001----------122.186.520------------------------------1.251.537
2002----------184.251.937------------------------------1.573.152 (117 dollars)
2003----------225.999.000------------------------------1.402.799
2004----------318.233.475------------------------------1.466.527
2019----------2020 TL------------------------------5.35 (377 Dollars now, and will be better inshallah )
Well lets hold our horses shall we?
USD too loses its value, and just like we are now, we were always an emerging economy and emerging economies are not only expected to grow, but they are expected to grow far faster than advanced economies in ratio.
Soo, lets look at some stats and do some basic math!
Turkey's population was about 65 million in 2002. At the end of 2017 it is estimated to have reached 82.835.090 people.
That is a whopping increase of 27.5%!
Our nominal GDP was $238.4B in 2002. At the end of 2017 it was around $851.5B. But this is the current USD value and USD lost about 40% of its value between 2002 and the end of 2017. When adjusted to that our gdp at the end of 2017 was about $608.2B in 2002 USD values.
And that would mean an economic growth of about 155% from 2002 to the end of 2017.
And guess what, our economy will shrink for a few years to come due to all this 155% economic growth having been done by bubbles, and there is also a busting cycle of bubbles that too will take too much time. And that means our testing time range of 16 years will actually be even bigger in the future while having an even smaller gdp and bigger population.
Keep all these in mind when trying to evaluate a government's economic success.
Now where were we.. Right, 155% economic and 27.5% population growth over 16 years.
That means the gdp per capita has risen an impressive 100% during these 16 years.
And that also means an actually-very-impressive annual growth of gdp per capita of around 4.4%!
But again, this average annual gdp per capita growth rate has been done during the boom stage. But a full cycle isnt only made up by a boom stage, it also includes the bust stage too.
As you guys can see out of this bubble-burst (or boom-bust) graph of constant-priced GDP, in the long term economies tend to scale upward in an exponential curve.
That is because real economic growth in the long run tends to be the same.
But while 5% economic growth of 1000B leads to 1050B, the next year's 5% growth will lead to 1102.5B, and thus exponential.
Our economy is expected to stay in recession for at least two years. That would be 2021 as the ending.
AKP came in 2002, that would be a 19 years of governance with at least the current gdp levels.
As you can see from the graph our gdp was fluctuating around (due to the keynesian economic policies that I dont support) $175B. And the latest data isnt in, but it is seen that we were going for the boom cycle's edge in 2017 (due to the negative real interest rates our smart government was running), and now it is obvious that we are experiencing that cycle's bust part.
And Id say the bust would be at around $400B in the best case scenario.
So ok, now lets do the simple math:
Average growth = (root*19)(400B / 175B) - 1
= (root*19)(2.286) - 1
= 1.044 - 1
= 0.044
= 4.4%
As you guys can see, what they did was not extraordinary in the slightest.
An emerging economy growing 4.4% annually is not something to be surprised about.
Here in this post I also included the few years ahead, so a part of the bust cycle, into my calculation of average gdp growth.
(And oh the found 4.4% result there has no relation to the 4.4% I just found for my new calculation in this post! The metrics and the time frames are all different! The values are equal just by a big coincidence!)
And so when you actually include a part of the estimated bust cycle we would get a gdp per capita growth of about 47.5% over 19 years and that would mean a 2% annual growth rate of gdp per capita which, again, is not bad at all!!! But it is still no where close to what you people try to illustrate all around! It is actually a rate that should be expected from an emerging economy which, again, isnt bad! It is actually pretty good!
I also didnt even bash your AKP. My post above yours doesnt really say anything against AKP or your beloved Erdogan. I just merely stated some facts to break some delusions here and there and that is it. I dont even support gdp growth as a whole, couldnt care less about it. I am more of a Hayekian so that I am more efficiency-focused rather than Keynesian quantity orientation. So I think even if gdp were to fall, as long as gdp per capita is rising in real value I am totally fine with that. What I am not fine with however is the exaggeration of either sides' delusional worldviews.
But I also admit that any other party would have done far worse than Erdogan's government as most of them are just outright communist, but that is a different topic.
