Let me underline a few basic facts:
There is not even the slightest news about the J-10, on the contrary, it has been repeatedly denied by official sources. Why did it have to be denied, the first news about it appeared in a foreign media source and then the neo-eurasianist and pro-China media outlet Aydınlık reported it, but in reality there was no such interest and no official contact at all. Unfortunately, there is not a shred of information to believe that this one of news outlet claim is true, but -a wish- in a 'propandized' way. It is a platform that I personally like btw. But unfortunately there is nothing concrete.
The TAF's plan is to modernize the entire 240 F-16 C/D Block30/40/50/50+ fleet. To this end, the TAF signed probably one of the most important contracts in the history of the company in the field of avionics with Aselsan under ÖZGÜR-2. Aselsan's share values increased by 35% after this contract.
In addition to indigenous modernization, there is a stalled issue in the US Congress for the procurement of the B70 modernization kit for 70 jets and 40 new F-16s. If these kits do not arrive, Aselsan-TAI and other contractor companies will subject the entire F-16 fleet to an indigenous modernization program, which has already been initiated years ago.
Turkiye has a well-established F-16 industry. Since the training, logistics and maintenance lines of the air force are based on this platform also, every jet roll out the production line can enter the active inventory in a very short time. This offers not only cost but also time advantages in terms of logistics, training and infrastructure.
If the US continues to stall on 40 additional jets, funding for alternative plans will increase. For example, the legally secured funding allocation for the KAAN project has exceeded $20 billion. This will be followed on a smaller scale by platforms such as Hurjet LAJ, Hurjet-II, KE-I/II, ANKA-III/IV.
I think we missed the train for the purchase of a foreign fighter jet. The 2016-2019 period was the window of opportunity, and that period has passed. I can't blame for this, the country was creating a security perimeter with significant cross-border military operations and this was a serious cost.
2025 is a target for start KE deliveries, 2027/8 KE-II and Hurjet LAJ, start of deliveries of KAAN to the air force from 2028/29 and FOC target by mid-2030s. In the meantime, deliveries of the ANKA IV (penetrator bomber) and twin-engine KE begin. This is how the main structure will develop. What are we going to do for the last 5-6 years and for the next 5-6 years?Commissioning of the National Warning and Command and Control System, the start of active service of tons of strategic avionics for existing fighter jets, including the indigenous mission computer, Iff, data link, and thus maximizing the effectiveness of the indigenous ammunition range. Closing the gaps in all ammunition groups.
This is the general picture, and if the Turkish air force nevertheless takes steps towards an urgent foreign purchase in the face of this situation (other than US-origin), understand that TR is preparing to go to war.