Turkey surrendered in Syria’s Idlib after losing key town – op-ed

[JackTheRipper]

The loss of the key strategic town of Saraqeb in Idlib, northwest Syria, means that Turkey has lost the war for the last rebel-held province to Syrian government forces that are set on recapturing the country in full, said Scott Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector, in the American Conservative.

Turkey signed a deal with Russia to cease fighting in Idlib last Thursday, a week after an attack by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces killed 36 Turkish soldiers, triggering a heavy Turkish response.

But the battle over Saraqeb, near the intersection of the key M4 and M5 highways, had been simmering for weeks before Turkey launched its retaliatory operation, Ritter said.

After Syrian government forces began to push forward into Idlib with Russian air support, Turkey began reinforcing the 12 observation posts it had built. Their advance left several of the Turkish posts stranded, and Turkey responded by deploying thousands of soldiers to the province and providing artillery cover to rebel counter attacks.

But on Feb. 6, Assad’s troops captured Saraqeb, bringing the conflict to a new phase as the rebel counterattack mounted and Turkish soldiers began falling in reprisals by Syrian government forces.

Fighting over the territory around Saraqeb intensified in the following weeks, with Turkish-backed rebels capturing the nearby town of Nayrab on Feb. 24. Turkey and its allied groups then set their sights on Saraqeb, and began deploying man-portable air defence systems, forcing Syrian and Russian jets to abort their missions in the area. Assad’s forces retaliated with the Feb. 27 attack that killed dozens of troops, Ritter said.

The military operation that Turkey launched in response failed to make headway in Saraqeb, and by March 4 “the situation facing the Turkish-backed rebel fighters was so dire that they gave up all pretence of independent operations, and instead intermixed themselves within the Turkish outposts to avoid being targeted by the Russian Air Force,” Ritter said.

The ceasefire deal that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 5 was “very much a document of surrender for the Turks” that ceded control of the air above Idlib and forced Turkey to jointly patrol the M4 highway with Russian military patrols, said Ritter, adding that Turkey will also have to disarm jihadist groups that have been the fiercest rebel fighters in the province.

“For Syria and Russia, the Battle of Saraqeb was about restoring Syrian sovereignty over the totality of Syrian territory; for Turkey, it was about securing lasting Turkish control and influence over the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib,” Ritter said. “Turkey lost on both accounts.”

https://ahvalnews.com/idlib/turkey-surrendered-syrias-idlib-after-losing-key-town-op-ed

https://www.theamericanconservative...y-lost-a-battle-of-wills-and-force-to-russia/

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

With the sharp fall in oil price let’s see how far and how long Russia can go on bailing out the Syrian regime on a 24/7 basis!! Avoiding the direct confrontation with Russia while keeping the half of Idlib under her control is quite a feat for Turkey....

Turkey has physically shown with the audiovisual presentations of the destructions that 15% of the regime strength can be wiped out by carrying out ops with 30 drones in a week. Now, how many days will it take to take out the 100% of regime’s strength with 300 drones? It’s a 5th grade level arithmetic problem....

Turkey has gained time to get her military gadgets at the optimum level, while Russia has got time to wind down her ops in Syria for she might not be wanting to go down the way the Czar and the Communists went down thanks to the WW1 and the Afgan war, respectively...

What looks like Sher may have Khair in it, while what looks like Khair may have Sher in it....

Turkey’s objective is Damascus, not some random towns....

 

[Beast]

With the sharp fall in oil price let’s see how far and how long Russia can go on bailing out the Syrian regime on a 24/7 basis!! Avoiding the direct confrontation with Russia while keeping the half of Idlib under her control is quite a feat for Turkey....

Turkey has physically shown with the audiovisual presentations of the destructions that 15% of the regime strength can be wiped out by carrying out ops with 30 drones in a week. Now, how many days will it take to take out the 100% of regime’s strength with 300 drones? It’s a 5th grade level arithmetic problem....

Turkey has gained time to get her military gadgets at the optimum level, while Russia has got time to wind down her ops in Syria for she might not be wanting to go down the way the Czar and the Communists went down thanks to the WW1 and the Afgan war, respectively...

What looks like Sher may have Khair in it, while what looks like Khair may have Sher in it....

Turkey’s objective is Damascus, not some random towns....

You forget China is a strategic ally of Russia. What Russia lack(money), we make it up for them. Do u know why Syria government thanks China despite not a single soldier from China participate in Syria civil war? There is a lot of background support from China backing both Syria and Russia to fight in this war.

Even with corona virus saga going on, China foreign reserve still stood at staggering more than USD 3 trillion.

https://www.capebretonpost.com/busi...-forex-reserves-fall-to-3107-trillion-420720/

 

[Saddam Hussein]

With the sharp fall in oil price let’s see how far and how long Russia can go on bailing out the Syrian regime on a 24/7 basis!! Avoiding the direct confrontation with Russia while keeping the half of Idlib under her control is quite a feat for Turkey....

Turkey has physically shown with the audiovisual presentations of the destructions that 15% of the regime strength can be wiped out by carrying out ops with 30 drones in a week. Now, how many days will it take to take out the 100% of regime’s strength with 300 drones? It’s a 5th grade level arithmetic problem....

Turkey has gained time to get her military gadgets at the optimum level, while Russia has got time to wind down her ops in Syria for she might not be wanting to go down the way the Czar and the Communists went down thanks to the WW1 and the Afgan war, respectively...

What looks like Sher may have Khair in it, while what looks like Khair may have Sher in it....

Turkey’s objective is Damascus, not some random towns....

Let's send you to Damascus so you can die sooner

 

[riscol]

By increasing oil production and lowering the price it's also hurting Saudi Arabia. This move is just trying to punish Russia after President Putin refused to halt the oil production cut. Russia alone dictates the policy no longer OPEC and Russia holding a large foreign reserve is in a better position today. I have to say it's a master stroke from Putin because his ultimate target was the US shale gas industry. Russian economy can take the hit as it does not depend solely on oil. Turkey on the other hand is not doing so well economically, diplomatically and at the militarily front.

 

[Glass]

By increasing oil production and lowering the price it's also hurting Saudi Arabia. This move is just trying to punish Russia after President Putin refused to halt the oil production cut. Russia alone dictates the policy no longer OPEC and Russia holding a large foreign reserve is in a better position today. I have to say it's a master stroke from Putin because his ultimate target was the US shale gas industry. Russian economy can take the hit as it does not depend solely on oil. Turkey on the other hand is not doing so well economically, diplomatically and at the militarily front.

Ur projecting to much. Russia economy is shit. It's energy run with no future whatsoever. The US at the end will win that energy war because let's be honest here you won't even reach their spit.

With regards to Turkey, 4-5% growth this year, Turkey profits massively from cheap oil, just recently humiliated and decimated Russian air defense systems via homegrown systems in Syria and with that killed billions of arms contracts for them and letting the refugees go to Europe is a good thing one way another

 

[mustafa erkan]

You forget China is a strategic ally of Russia. What Russia lack(money), we make it up for them.

How much money are you talking about? China doesnt give it if it doesnt get an important gain as turnback.That is the way it works.

 

[Jamaal Yelmaaz]

Turkey has no lost any teritory under its or its proxys control. The teritory had been captured by regime was on hand of Al Nusraa..

 

[zzzz]

With the sharp fall in oil price let’s see how far and how long Russia can go on bailing out the Syrian regime on a 24/7 basis!! Avoiding the direct confrontation with Russia while keeping the half of Idlib under her control is quite a feat for Turkey....

Turkey has physically shown with the audiovisual presentations of the destructions that 15% of the regime strength can be wiped out by carrying out ops with 30 drones in a week. Now, how many days will it take to take out the 100% of regime’s strength with 300 drones? It’s a 5th grade level arithmetic problem....

Turkey has gained time to get her military gadgets at the optimum level, while Russia has got time to wind down her ops in Syria for she might not be wanting to go down the way the Czar and the Communists went down thanks to the WW1 and the Afgan war, respectively...

What looks like Sher may have Khair in it, while what looks like Khair may have Sher in it....

Turkey’s objective is Damascus, not some random towns....

How exactly 100+ Syrian soldiers and 20 tanks/vehicles are 15% of regime strength?

Ur projecting to much. Russia economy is shit. It's energy run with no future whatsoever. The US at the end will win that energy war because let's be honest here you won't even reach their spit.

With regards to Turkey, 4-5% growth this year, Turkey profits massively from cheap oil, just recently humiliated and decimated Russian air defense systems via homegrown systems in Syria and with that killed billions of arms contracts for them and letting the refugees go to Europe is a good thing one way another

Last time i checked a poor 3rd world army with the help of Russian air defence just humilated so called "2nd strongest NATO army" that failed to achieve anything with its useless "drone army", capitulated and retreated, losing cities and wasting hundreds of millions in process. Wake up. Reality check. What do you think people are going to buy now?

As for the tourism dependent Turkish economy it is going to crash this year hugely because of coranavirus.

 

[Glass]

Last time i checked a poor 3rd world army with the help of Russian air defence just humilated so called "2nd strongest NATO army" that failed to achieve anything with its useless "drone army", capitulated and retreated, losing cities and wasting hundreds of millions in process. Wake up. Reality check. What do you think people are going to buy now?

As for the tourism dependent Turkish economy it is going to crash this year hugely because of coranavirus.

Hahahahha, useless drone army u little buttfucked russian lmao. The fact that ur "state of the art" air defense systems got utterly annhiliated kinda indicates how useless ur air defense systems are. We will have a closer look on the S400 next month

And they are still not worth hundreds of millions in fact u downed 4 uav´s which at most cost maybe 10 million alltogether and Russia today isnt going to change that. The footages are also not from arma,libya or adobe premier but straight from Syria

The Turkish economy is Energy dependent and guess what, ur current war with the Saudis and Opec is a blessing for the Turkish economy

"The lower price of Brent crude oil and natural gas may benefit energy-dependent countries such as Turkey. Since it imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas, economists said the selloff could keep a lid on the country’s inflation and current account deficit.

Şekerbank Chief Economist Gülay Elif Yıldırım said every $10 drop in the price of a barrel of oil trims the deficit by as much as $3.5 billion.

Turkey managed to achieve a higher-than-expected current account surplus in 2019, its first and highest surplus since 2001. The current account balance ended the year with a surplus of $1.67 billion. Measures taken and the rebalancing in the economy brought a gradual decline in the annual current account deficit that dropped from about $58 billion on a 12-month basis in May 2018.

If oil remained at current levels through year-end, Turkey’s current account deficit would be $10 billion lower than otherwise, Yıldırım told Reuters, adding that uncertainties around energy production and the effects of the coronavirus are big wild cards.

It will be a “lost year” for global growth, she said. The stimulus provided by larger economies “will benefit Turkey in the medium term... but in the short term there is a market crash everywhere.”

“The lower the price, the less Turkey pays for its oil, all of which is imported. The longer this lasts, the better (for importers),” John Bowlus, editor-in-chief at Energy Reporters, told TRT World.
https://www.dailysabah.com/business...tive-for-turkeys-account-deficit-erdogan-says
"

 

[zzzz]

Hahahahha, useless drone army u little buttfucked russian lmao. The fact that ur "state of the art" air defense systems got utterly annhiliated kinda indicates how useless ur air defense systems are. We will have a closer look on the S400 next month

And they are still not worth hundreds of millions in fact u downed 4 uav´s which at most cost maybe 10 million alltogether and Russia today isnt going to change that. The footages are also not from arma,libya or adobe premier but straight from Syria

The Turkish economy is Energy dependent and guess what, ur current war with the Saudis and Opec is a blessing for the Turkish economy

"The lower price of Brent crude oil and natural gas may benefit energy-dependent countries such as Turkey. Since it imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas, economists said the selloff could keep a lid on the country’s inflation and current account deficit.

Şekerbank Chief Economist Gülay Elif Yıldırım said every $10 drop in the price of a barrel of oil trims the deficit by as much as $3.5 billion.

Turkey managed to achieve a higher-than-expected current account surplus in 2019, its first and highest surplus since 2001. The current account balance ended the year with a surplus of $1.67 billion. Measures taken and the rebalancing in the economy brought a gradual decline in the annual current account deficit that dropped from about $58 billion on a 12-month basis in May 2018.

If oil remained at current levels through year-end, Turkey’s current account deficit would be $10 billion lower than otherwise, Yıldırım told Reuters, adding that uncertainties around energy production and the effects of the coronavirus are big wild cards.

It will be a “lost year” for global growth, she said. The stimulus provided by larger economies “will benefit Turkey in the medium term... but in the short term there is a market crash everywhere.”

“The lower the price, the less Turkey pays for its oil, all of which is imported. The longer this lasts, the better (for importers),” John Bowlus, editor-in-chief at Energy Reporters, told TRT World.
https://www.dailysabah.com/business...tive-for-turkeys-account-deficit-erdogan-says
"

You lost 20 drones each one cost from $5mil(TB2) to $20mil (Anka-S). How exactly you annihilated or humilated anyone if you failed to achieve anything and was defeated? Your drones was defeated by Russian SAM. You lost. You have your own special definition of military victories in Turkey? Wake up, its not Turkish Baghdad Bob session here, this is reality check

Coronavirus. Google what it will do to Turkish economy.

 

[Glass]

You lost 20 drones each one cost from $5mil(TB2) to $20mil (Anka-S).

At least 200 and the costs are as high as a f22 raptor for each one of these.

How exactly you annihilated or humilated anyone if you failed to achieve anything and was defeated? You drones was defeated by Russian SAM.

No, Ur air defense was defeated by Turkish UAV`s and you can jump around as much as u want but thats the reality hahaha

You lost. You have your own special definition of military victories in Turkey? Wake up, its not Turkish Baghdad Bob here, this is reality check

Vladi, dont drink to much Vodka, its not good for u.

Coronavirus. Google what it will do to Turkish economy.

 

[zzzz]

At least 200 and the costs are as high as a f22 raptor for each one of these.



No, Ur air defense was defeated by Turkish UAV`s and you can jump around as much as u want but thats the reality hahaha



Vladi, dont drink to much Vodka, its not good for u.

Yep i see, Baghdad Bob alternative reality. So Syrian army managed to clear the skies from Turkish drones in two days by just moving SAMs to Idlib. Made your drones completly useless, stopped their activity and then forced you to retreat advancing freely and taking cities from you and your drones were nowhere to be seen. And that is called air defence was defeated by Turkish UAV in Turkish Baghdad Bob reality

 

[Glass]

i know that propaganda in Russia is heavy but the stuff they feed you must be extremly heavy.

 

[beijingwalker]

How much money are you talking about? China doesnt give it if it doesnt get an important gain as turnback.That is the way it works.

China’s ‘rebuilding’ role in Iraq could serve as a template for Syria after years of conflict

So far, China has made commitments to Syria for projects to the tune of $2 billion as it aims to fast-track its rebuilding effort.

Sunday 01/03/2020

Dubai - With the Syrian civil war’s outcome all but settled by Russia’s military intervention, Damascus has been turning attention to the massive rebuilding programme that lies ahead. By Syrian President Bashar Assad’s own admission, almost every sector of the Syrian economy has been damaged in the course of its nine years of conflict.

The predicted price for Syria’s rebuilding varies widely depending on which estimate is considered but a figure of $200 billion is commonly referenced. If there is one certainty about Syria’s massive rebuilding, it is that the country will need huge amounts of international investment and financial assistance to deal with this challenge.

Yet the “Friends of Syria” coalition, which includes the United States, United Kingdom and Canada, among others, has frozen $9.6 billion in pledges until a political process towards a post-Assad setup takes hold. As it stands, few if any Western countries appear to be politically willing to become involved in Syria until a national reconciliation restores political legitimacy to its leadership.

With traditional international donors out of the frame, Syria does not have many options when it comes to bankrolling its rebuilding effort. Its two biggest allies, Russia and Iran, are not enough. Russia itself cannot take on the burden or financial commitment of rebuilding Syria and Iran’s capacity to play a major role is declining fast in the face of Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign.

Moreover, the isolation of Damascus internationally does not instil confidence in business communities, whether Russian, Iranian or others, for a private sector-led rebuilding effort to materialise.

Proposals for an Arab-led rebuilding programme for Syria, which was suspended from the Arab League in 2015, have been floated and, while the restoration of ties with Arab capitals is speeding up, it is the potential Chinese role that has become a focal point, especially for Damascus.

China may be the only country that could consider making the large-scale, long-term commitments to Syria’s needs. China’s Syria policy has meant Beijing has been able to preserve goodwill with the regime and put itself in a strong position to negotiate favourable terms for market access or investment initiatives.

With more than $3 trillion in foreign currency reserves, China has cash to spend, invest and loan. Beijing’s ambitions with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provide another apparently complementary strategic context for it to assume a leading role in Syria’s rebuilding.

The Chinese role in neighbouring Iraq’s rebuilding probably offers the best guide to Beijing’s likely approach to Syria. China’s role has grown significantly in Iraq in recent years but it began cautiously.

Chinese activity and investments in Iraq, driven by its state-owned enterprises, focused on infrastructure for the oil sector or operations closely related to it, such as electricity generation. Much of Baghdad depends on supply by Chinese electricity companies, for example.

China is looking for a major role in the construction of the Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline and is moving closer to building a 300,000 barrel-per-day-capacity oil refinery on the Iraqi coast in Al-Faw. This is unsurprising given that Chinese-Iraqi ties are increasingly anchored to oil trade; almost one-tenth of China’s oil comes from Iraq.

In October, China and Iraq signed an “oil for projects” agreement that is to facilitate a broader development focus beyond oil and related infrastructure to include housing, health and education. The focus is gradually broadening but China, which generally likes projects of scale, is easily put off by political instability and violence.

In short, China’s activities in Iraq have focused on a smaller number of high-value projects that have long-term strategic value. It has stayed risk-averse and avoided developing a large, diversified portfolio of projects that it has the capacity to undertake should it so wish.

Cash reserves or BRI have not let officials in Beijing get carried away and China’s geopolitical agenda may at times get overstated even on primarily investment-driven issues, which could again become the case as it grows the footprint of its companies in Syria now.

However, while China is poised to win major contracts in Syria, the problematic backdrop of Syria’s highly internationalised conflict means Beijing will opt for a go-slow approach that is more limited in nature, with a capability to ramp up in the years ahead.

Beijing’s starting point in Syria’s rebuilding is thus likely to be characterised in a shortlist of pre-selected sectors, such as transportation, logistics and energy, but also focused geographically around safe, politically stable regions that pose low risks.

China, which is Syria’s largest trading partner, is likely to make important contributions to Syria’s rebuilding effort but it is unlikely that it will be able to fill the gap left open by Russia and Iran. So far, China has made commitments to Syria for projects to the tune of $2 billion as it aims to fast-track its rebuilding effort.

Syria is also likely to benefit from a $23 billion fund announced by Beijing for loans and aid to its partners in the Arab world as well as from BRI at large. Ultimately, Damascus will need to carve out a role in its rebuilding for Arab countries as well and probably also, somehow, Europe.

https://thearabweekly.com/chinas-re...uld-serve-template-syria-after-years-conflict