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November 1, 2015 10:53 am
Syrian Kurds exploit Russian presence to strengthen hand
Erika Solomon in Beirut and Geoff Dyer in Washington
Stronger PYD risks jeopardising US efforts to combat Isis
They have been the most valuable ally to the US-led coalition against Isis in Syria — but now Syria’s Kurdish forces could become its biggest headache.
As the US-led coalition tries to step up its offensive on Islamist militants Isis, Syria’s dominant Kurdish faction is making its own plans. In recent weeks, it announced a new autonomous district in northern Syria, a decision that has riled neighbouring Turkey, a coalition partner that hosts airbases for US jets.
More worryingly, observers say, the Democratic Union party (known by its Kurdish acronym PYD) is also discussing its ambitions for greater self-rule in diplomatic meetings with
Russia — America’s rival and President Bashar al-Assad’s international backer.
Emboldened by their crucial role against the jihadi threat in Syria, the PYD and its partners are moving to strengthen their hand politically. But such steps also risk jeopardising US efforts to combat Isis, by antagonising its partner Turkey as well as Arab rebels on the ground.
Observers say the PYD’s talks with Russia are aimed at pressuring the US for more military support and, ideally, political recognition.
“It’s like a reconnaissance mission to see what the positions are. Everyone else is meeting to discuss their options — why shouldn’t the PYD?,” said Nawaf Xelil, a former PYD official who now runs the Kurdish Studies Centre in Germany. “We want recognition for regional self-administration, so we need to expand our relationships.”
Kurds are the world’s largest ethnicity without a state, sprawled across Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.
But in the midst of Syria’s multi-sided civil war, they have carved out a region of self-rule in the country’s north-east, which they call
Rojava, similar to the autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq.
Most of Syria’s Sunni Arab majority is against this — as is neighbouring Turkey, wary that its own Kurds on the other side of the border could make similar demands.
If self-rule for Kurds in
Syria once seemed an unlikely outcome of the war, it now looks almost inevitable since Syria’s Kurdish militia proved themselves to be an effective ground partner for coalition air strikes against Isis.
As they pushed out Isis under US air cover this year, the Kurds cemented and expanded their control of Syria’s north-eastern Kurdish region and sought to link it with Kurdish territory further west.
Many Kurds feel history justifies forceful tactics: they have often been abandoned by international allies in the final hour. The US twice aborted support of Kurdish rebellions against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, leaving tens of thousands of Kurds to be slaughtered.
“They feel this is their moment, and they’re not going to take orders,” said Aaron Stein, a non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Council. “They’re going to make history, not just accept it.”
That risks putting the PYD on a collision course with
Turkey, which fired on Kurdish positions last week. If such attacks escalate, anti-Isis coalition members would essentially be pitted against each other.
This comes at a trying time for Washington, which has been revamping its efforts after the collapse of its $500m programme to train rebels against Isis at the same time that Russia launched air strikes against both Isis and rebels Washington supports.
Some US officials link Kurdish talks with Russia to the broader
contest for influence in Syria between Moscow and Washington. Russian outreach to the Syrian Kurds, including quiet encouragement of their demands for greater autonomy within the country, some US officials believe, could be part of a broader push to try to drive a wedge between the US and Turkey by playing on Ankara’s fears about the creation of a Kurdish state.
Even if the main objectives of Russia’s meetings is to discuss a political solution to the war, others say, the potential these talks have for complicating relationships between the US and its partners is likely to be a welcome side-effect.
And for Turkey, the stakes are high. In a speech on Wednesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a warning in response to Syrian Kurds’ announcement of a new self-ruling district for Tel Abyad, a town they captured from Isis under US air cover this year. “If you try to do this elsewhere, Turkey doesn’t need permission from anyone. We will do what is necessary,” Mr Erdogan said.
Both the PYD and the militia linked to it are sister organisations of the
Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a group branded as terrorists by much of the west as well as Turkey, which has fought the group for decades.
Turkey does not distinguish the Syrian affiliate from the PKK, but has tolerated the US support for it. The fear now, Mr Stein said, is that talks with Russia have encouraged the Kurds to push west towards the largely Kurdish border town of Jarablus, currently in Isis hands.
Turkey considers the town a red line — if captured, the Kurds could link nearly all pockets of Kurdish territory — and could take stronger military action. “It could fracture the coalition,” he said.
Kurdish commanders say they have no plans to push on the town, although many political leaders argue it is critical to cutting Isis supply routes.
PYD official Idris Naasan, who has called for pushing on Jarablus, said Russia looked willing to support plans for self-ruling districts inside Syria.
“We have become an influential player and they want to increase their diplomatic relationships with us for their future interests in the country,” he said, but insisted they would never risk losing their burgeoning alliance with the US.
Many Syrian Kurds say these forces will push as much as possible, not just for more military support, but for the political recognition they crave.
“The Kurds still have a lot of concerns. International sympathy never goes beyond their military fight against Isis,” said journalist Zana Omer, a Syrian Kurd in the PYD-run town of Qamishli. “What they want is political recognition for their sacrifices. And they still don’t have that.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/w...ed-alliance-in-syria-exists-in-name-only.html
U.S. and Turkey on a Collision Course in Syria | David L. Phillips