Turkey’s $50-billion jet program in question

[cabatli_53]

Yes, complement but do we need 100+ strike aircraft? Yeah, they're not really ground attack but multi-role aircraft but their A2A capability is known to be limited in terms of a maneuverability and while @cabatli_53, you seem to know a lot maybe about the decision making process itself, wouldn't it make more sense to cut down on F-35 orders to procure more TF-X?

The more F-35s we buy, the more expensive our indigenous fighter will be, am I right?

The desicion of numbers are taken in accordance with strategic planning of military tactics regarding their future squadrom plans on different bases, the range of effective number of strike aircrafts on problematic regions locating next to our borders, the amount of air superiority aircrafts which is designated to protect planned future strike forces and the size of the country which the number of strike aircrafts to be seperated. Decreasing the amount of strategic systems may cause some future aversiveness risks especially for defencive gears, If you are charged to protect a big country which is locating quite problematic region whose nations periodically make bloodbath so If there is a big number of aircrafts to be acquired with "vital codes" which Your own industry doesn't have a plan to develop an equivalent for next 50-60 years, It means It is vital to purchase big numbers for your countries security without asking money flow to foreign manufacturers.

BTW, F-35 is a big stealth strike aircraft, While (Contrary to rivals) Air to air roles are impressively enhenced thanks to technological advantages of aircraft. F-35 can do air superiority missions not by its high manouvrability profile but impressive Electronic/Electro-optic devices which helps a strike aircraft to survive on its own If It is needed. Even in this circumstances, Being quite advanced in air to air roles doesn't make F-35 an air speriority aircraft as a competitive of F-22 or F-16.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

You know the fact is Turkey is closer to Pakistan brotherhood, we have shared numerous of projects in the past, we have some valuable armor inputs to your Altay Tanks. Why would Turkey afraid of working with Pakistan regarding jet program?

with a F**** UP economy we cant provide funds

 

[monitor]

your own child is always yous what ever the cost of bringing it . turkeys economy is growing and hopefully defence budget would be increase significantly in future so money is not a big obstacle. moreover 50 billion is only for your procurement and development cost if you can get some customer the per unit cost would reduces more . but to reduced the possibility of any flaws i think turkey should take expert input from china russia and other western countries along with sweeden .

 

[TheThreePashas]

your own child is always yous what ever the cost of bringing it . turkeys economy is growing and hopefully defence budget would be increase significantly in future so money is not a big obstacle. moreover 50 billion is only for your procurement and development cost if you can get some customer the per unit cost would reduces more . but to reduced the possibility of any flaws i think turkey should take expert input from china russia and other western countries along with sweeden .

Plus, that $50 billion dollars is going to trickle down into the rest of the economy, increasing Turkey's technological portfolio and creating jobs, etc.

 

[gr8vision]

Plus, that $50 billion dollars is going to trickle down into the rest of the economy, increasing Turkey's technological portfolio and creating jobs, etc.

Turkey is not there technologically, nor does it have $50 billion USD to pay for anything now or in 5 years for that matter. Participating in the F-35 project was a very smart idea, which raises Turkey's profile and attractiveness for the entire world, as well as increases its scientific potential.

Turkey hasn't even deployed a single domestic tank yet (forget about helicopters, submarines or even 4th generation fighter or bomber jets) - who prevents her from doing that? If that can't be done faster than it is being done, then how is it supposed to build a F-35-like jet, even if it suddenly gets $50 billion today, to spend on this?

 

[olcayto]

Turkey is not there technologically, nor does it have $50 billion USD to pay for anything now or in 5 years for that matter. Participating in the F-35 project was a very smart idea, which raises Turkey's profile and attractiveness for the entire world, as well as increases its scientific potential.

Turkey hasn't even deployed a single domestic tank yet (forget about helicopters, submarines or even 4th generation fighter or bomber jets) - who prevents her from doing that? If that can't be done faster than it is being done, then how is it supposed to build a F-35-like jet, even if it suddenly gets $50 billion today, to spend on this?

You're wrong on the 50 billion $ part.

First of all the project it self is spread way over 10 years. According to the news report the initial costs of the project up to 2023 are just 13 billion $ (development costs). Purchasing costs are for after 2023.

For comparison İ can state this. The high speed railway project that is supposed to end in 2023 has a total cost of 45 billion $.
Turkey can find the funds for projects like these.

 

[TheThreePashas]

Turkey is not there technologically, nor does it have $50 billion USD to pay for anything now or in 5 years for that matter. Participating in the F-35 project was a very smart idea, which raises Turkey's profile and attractiveness for the entire world, as well as increases its scientific potential.

Turkey hasn't even deployed a single domestic tank yet (forget about helicopters, submarines or even 4th generation fighter or bomber jets) - who prevents her from doing that? If that can't be done faster than it is being done, then how is it supposed to build a F-35-like jet, even if it suddenly gets $50 billion today, to spend on this?

Like @olcayto said, it's not like we're going to spend that amount in a short period of time. It's a long term investment and procurement costs are not even remotely finalized yet.

Yes. participating in the F-35 project was smart, we're in agreement there.

Turkey hasn't deployed a tank yet? That's coming soon. Helicopters? Coming soon.

You can't look at the issue as "Oh, Turkey hasn't even done a 4th gen jet project yet or any fighter jet in its history." That's absolutely retarded (no offense to you, I'm not saying you're retarded, just the mindset). If that was the case then there would never be a country that entered the jet market after this period. Obviously we're going to need to dump a lot of resources into catching up but this is very possible for Turkey. Rome wasn't built overnight but we're not trying to build it overnight.


Turkey has an advantage developing a jet stemming from our very diverse relations with other countries. We don't have to build the entire thing. We can buy engines from NATO allies (or hell, even from China once they're working). The jet can be armed with existing U.S. missiles. We have radar systems that, granted aren't upto AESA spec or whatever we're going to put on it but there's a ton of countries Turkey could get help from. We will also be the only Muslim majority nation producing modern fighters, which gives us advantages in exporting the product if we're smart about it. Countries like Pakistan (I know you guys are broke) or Saudi A. would be much less worried about Western pressure of sanctions. Central Asian and other Turkish partners (Azerbaijan) would, imo, be very willing to buy our products as they currently have little alternative to Russian armaments and I'm sure they would love to leave The Bear's sphere of influence.

Don't count Turkey out. Where there's a will, there's a way man.


(Edit: I said we're the only muslim majority country producing modern fighters only because it seems that China stops Pakistan from exporting the JF-17)

 

[fazlaaa]

F-35 is too expensive ////

 

[gr8vision]

You're wrong on the 50 billion $ part.

First of all the project it self is spread way over 10 years. According to the news report the initial costs of the project up to 2023 are just 13 billion $ (development costs). Purchasing costs are for after 2023.

For comparison İ can state this. The high speed railway project that is supposed to end in 2023 has a total cost of 45 billion $.
Turkey can find the funds for projects like these.

What exactly was I "wrong" about? I never said the $50 billion is for 1, 5 or 10 years - I just used the figure that was presented in this thread above, and which is from the media reports.

And no, Turkey can't "find" such funds for a project like this - do you know Turkey's GDP and its massive multi-billion dollar debt? If Turkey could have found such money, it would have done it alone, or with preferred partners, and if done it in partnership, would have gotten a higher share. Turkey is not printing dollars, so it can't just "find" $50 billion, even if it's "just" $5 billion per year for 10 years, or $2.5 billion per year for 20 years.

Turkey's entire military budget is just over $14 billion for 2013 (see: ECONOMICS - Turkey )

SIPRI says it's $18 billion. Fine, let's go with $18 billion then, as the higher of the two, so that everyone here feels more proud and happy (however artificial and inflated that feeling is in this context). At least 50% of that defense budget would go to pay for soldiers and officers, and various non-combat costs. So for arms acquisitions, maintenance and R&D there is only the other 50% - and that's at best, an optimistic scenario. So we have just $9 billion per year, at most, in Turkey, for R&D and arms acquisitions. In reality, historically, at least since 1990, Turkey spends only about 25% of its defense budget on arms acquisition and R&D - that's $4.5 billion.

But anyways, this simple "putting things in context" should explain to everyone that $50 billion dollars - whether over 10 or even 20 years - is a lot of money for Turkish defense budget, and considering how expensive it is to maintain the oversized Navy that Turkey has, as well as all those old tanks and jets, there is even less left for F-35, or any indigenous production and development of own fighter jet, especially 5th generation.

Just as a reminder - even the Altay tank (which is not even combat-proven yet) is in reality a borrowed tank design from South Korea, i.e., not a true indigenous production. Even its boron composite materials passive defense is from S.Korea and/or Pakistan. Same with virtually all Turkish weapons systems, which are mostly old German and other variants. This is not criticism, it's normal - same is true for most countries, such as China, North Korea, Iran, etc. But let's remain more cold-headed in our analysis and not jump on each other just because one thinks that his "patriotism" is at stake.

 

[gr8vision]

Here's another good read for everyone to have realistic and factual understanding and opinions, not just gung-ho patriotism:

"According to Undersecretary Murad BAYAR, as of June 2010 the total value of ongoing TüBiTAK-funded Defence and Aerospace R&D projects is US$ 242 million, and the total value of the 19 TüBiTAK R&D projects that have already been funded is US$157 million. The total value of DISF-funded defence R&D projects is US$ 85 million. MoND M. Vecdi GÖNÜLhas disclosed that during last two years 15 defence related R&D projects have been completed and currently a total of 77 R&D projects are being carried out. According to SaSaD’s 2010 Defence Industry Sector Report, in 2010 Turkish defence industries allocated a total of US$666 Million for their R&D programmes, US$113 Million of which was met from their own resources. Prof. Mehmet AYDIN, Turkish Minister of State in charge of Science, Technology and Information (also covering TüBiTAK), says that the Security Technologies Research Group (SAVTAG) of TüBiTAK had so far provided a total of TL561 million (around US$370 million) to support 47 R&D projects in the field of defence, and that 16 of them had already been completed, with the products entering into the service of TAF." A Comprehensive Overview of the Turkish Defence Industry: Full Report | TR Defence

 

[Hyperion]

Mate, although I do appreciate your effort in getting those links etc etc etc.... however, please note that building a fifth generation fighter is something completely different to manufacturing:

a - "sub-components" of AMRAAM assembly.
b - Pressing wing-tips.
c - Surface metallurgy of a drone to that of super cruise capable 5+ gen jet.
d - Stress on component/subcomponent external and internal.
e - Designing an engine...

100 different types of integrated sensors (aircraft), 5000 different components of payloads.. the list goes on and on and on and on...... there is no end to it..... I haven't even started with the software requirements yet.

The combined might of GCC can not either afford or comprehend to build one. The science is for the very select few.

Now more important questions:
1. Can Turkey build it? Yes it can.
2. Can it build it alone? No it can't.
3. Will any western nation help Turkey? No they won't.
4. Does Turkey require the help of GCC etc etc? No it doesn't.
5. Who can Turkey ask for help? :::

A - CHINA (DESIGN & BODY METALLURGY) (30%)
B - RUSSIA ENGINE DESIGN AND METALLURGY (20%)
C - ITALIANS RADARS AND AVIONICS (10%)
D - INDIA (SOFTWARE) (10%)
E - REST OF 30% TR WOULD HAVE TO GO IT ALONE AND STEAL IF NECESSARY.

Budget? More than USD 30 - 35 Billion.

Then remove all your doubts, aside from their possible substancial financial contribution:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/231406-saudis-aec-develop-f-15sa-sub-systems-amraams.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...industries-begin-f-15sa-wings-production.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...cally-developed-gyro-stablization-system.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/253079-saudi-psatri-inaugurates-new-research-centers.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/248286-saker-family-saudi-uavs.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/milita...ia-plans-1000-military-industry-projects.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...uilding-city-dedicated-military-industry.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/233654-saudi-made-drone-showcased.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/234029-3-saudi-military-uavs-unveiled.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...eils-al-tariq-precision-guided-bombs-kit.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/milita...ding-all-tornado-jets-indigenous-systems.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle-east-africa/212754-sabic-build-carbon-fiber-plant-kingdom.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...ense-radars-electronics-research-program.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...ectronics-company-upcoming-defense-giant.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/202517-saudi-arabia-manufacture-f-15sa-wings-locally.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-d...s-saudi-arabia-tot-contract-al-salam-aec.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/195190-saudi-pannesma-signs-jv-rayethon.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle-east-africa/190836-psatri-signs-tot-agreement-italian-psa.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/milita...g-500kg-1000kg-variant-ybhon-xtreme-jdam.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/milita...nt-uae-ukranian-helicopter-project-quest.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/military-forum/133297-yabhon-xtreme-uae-jdam.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/military-forum/185004-middle-east-propulsion-company-mepc.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/arab-defence/192249-made-uae.html


Their military budget is separated from the state's, it's about $7bn, and they have some experience with building advanced trainers and air industry in general.


Well, our contribution would be limited due to financial restrains and relatively modest experience in aviation industry.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Mate, although I do appreciate your effort in getting those links etc etc etc.... however, please note that building a fifth generation fighter is something completely different to manufacturing:

a - "sub-components" of AMRAAM assembly.
b - Pressing wing-tips.
c - Surface metallurgy of a drone to that of super cruise capable 5+ gen jet.
d - Stress on component/subcomponent external and internal.
e - Designing an engine...

100 different types of integrated sensors (aircraft), 5000 different components of payloads.. the list goes on and on and on and on...... there is no end to it..... I haven't even started with the software requirements yet.

The combined might of GCC can not either afford or comprehend to build one. The science is for the very select few.

Now more important questions:
1. Can Turkey build it? Yes it can.
2. Can it build it alone? No it can't.
3. Will any western nation help Turkey? No they won't.
4. Does Turkey require the help of GCC etc etc? No it doesn't.
5. Who can Turkey ask for help? :::

A - CHINA (DESIGN & BODY METALLURGY) (30%)
B - RUSSIA ENGINE DESIGN AND METALLURGY (20%)
C - ITALIANS RADARS AND AVIONICS (10%)
D - INDIA (SOFTWARE) (10%)
E - REST OF 30% TR WOULD HAVE TO GO IT ALONE AND STEAL IF NECESSARY.

Budget? More than USD 30 - 35 Billion.

I understand that, it's true that the GCC can't build it on their own. What I was saying is JV among the countries, in which every country builds assigned parts pf the plane. If Turkey can get foreign help, then why not GCC? All I'm saying is that the GCC, namely the UAE and the KSA are starting to get serious tech of aerospace industry and yet can help out in the fields assigned to them. Plus, the KSA are planning to get most critical parts F-15 SA TOT, they fully maintain their planes in home, and manufacture electrical parts and now their wings as well as critical parts of their engines. The UAE as well is working on the TOT of 4.5 plane at home (don't remember it's name). Jordan established it's own industrial private company which manufacture and develop aerospace tech, albeit it's relatively modest but it can help out as our products reached countries like the USA, India, Iraq..ect.

Anyhow, it was just a suggestion. You guys can ignore it and move on with your discussions. Good luck.

 

[-SINAN-]

I
Anyhow, it was just a suggestion. You guys can ignore it and move on with your discussions. Good luck.

Mate, don't get upset now, we are just discussing.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Mate, don't get upset now, we are just discussing.

Well, people are ignorant. Every time the word Arab brought up they start their typical BS of their incompetence. I spent sometime getting those links but nevertheless nothing changed. However, I don't like hypothetical talks, our discussion is built on sth not real which is a JV in building this plane, after-all, it's not like our regimes would take this into consideration. You should continue in the frame of Turkey, as it should have been.

 

[gr8vision]

Turkey hasn't deployed a tank yet? That's coming soon. Helicopters? Coming soon.

"Soon" does not count - I am asking about and referring to *now*.

And when it will be introduced, it will still need many more years to prove itself worthy. Lab and testing grounds are one thing, but real life maintenance and battle conditions in war time are two very different things.

You can't look at the issue as "Oh, Turkey hasn't even done a 4th gen jet project yet or any fighter jet in its history." That's absolutely retarded (no offense to you, I'm not saying you're retarded, just the mindset). If that was the case then there would never be a country that entered the jet market after this period. Obviously we're going to need to dump a lot of resources into catching up but this is very possible for Turkey. Rome wasn't built overnight but we're not trying to build it overnight.

Sorry, but this is demagoguery (no offense please). By the same token all Muslim countries can declare themselves far more powerful than they are. Kazakhstan can say they are a space nation since Baikonur is on their territory. Uzbekistan can claim to produce military aircraft because they used to (until recently). Azerbaijan can declare itself the first and only Muslim space nation since it used to manufacture parts for the Soviet space shuttle "Buran" in the 1980s and it had world's first space general. But reality is unforgiving - doesn't matter what was in history, or what we all think will be in the future. The reality is about now, it is about today. If you don't have a real mass-produced and battle tested weapons - please don't talk about "soon", prototypes, and other wishful thinking.

Don't count Turkey out. Where there's a will, there's a way man.

Absolutely, and I agree 100%. I don't count Turkey, or Turks, out - I am very clear and obvious about that. But at the same time I am a hard-core realist, and prefer to talk about today, as well as make very conservative and realistic, fact-based projections and forecasts based on hard and verifiable numbers.

(Edit: I said we're the only muslim majority country producing modern fighters only because it seems that China stops Pakistan from exporting the JF-17)

China doesn't even own that engine - it's a Russian engine from what I know. China has been stealing Russian designs for decades, and most recently US designs. It does not have any major military know-how that is domestically, home-grown.