The possiblity that China become the world largest economy in 1-2 years?

[casual]

Best of luck to china to be world's largest economy with -9% GDP growth projection.

Anyone who forcasts -9% is just pulling numbers out of their asses.

 

[Surya 1]

Anyone who forcasts -9% is just pulling numbers out of their asses.

Anyone who says that China will become number one economy within 2 years in pooling the numbers from his backside.

 

[Zsari]

I hadn't realized that China's internal market GDP was such a large part of China's recent growth. The figures I found for 2019 are China: Total exports $2.4T, exports to USA $ .5 T, GDP $14T. Meanwhile USA exports $2.5 T and GDP $22 T. So China's total exports represent 17% of GDP whereas the USA's exports are 12%, not too different. I had not realized that 83% of China's GDP was internal. And China's exports to the USA are only 3.5% of China's GDP. That is very good news. It means that USA companies can leave China without causing too much disruption in Chinese society. We need to leave China as much as we possibly can.

Since when are the American companies concerned with disruption in China. They are in China for one thing, the Chinese market. US companies earning inside China is greater than the trade surplus China has with the US.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...rump-s-not-talking-about-20180613-p4zl8w.html

 

[TruthSeeker]

Since when are the American companies concerned with disruption in China. They are in China for one thing, the Chinese market. US companies earning inside China is greater than the trade surplus China has with the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...rump-s-not-talking-about-20180613-p4zl8w.html

I didn't mean that USA companies would care. They wouldn't. They are only concerned with profits and shareholder value. I meant, if the USA political system institutes policies that encourage or force USA suppliers of various goods (i.e., pharmaceuticals and electronic components) to be located in the USA or a friendly nation, then China can't objectively complain that such USA policies hurt it.

 

[Zsari]

I didn't mean that USA companies would care. They wouldn't. They are only concerned with profits and shareholder value. I meant, if the USA political system institutes policies that encourage or force USA suppliers of various goods (i.e., pharmaceuticals and electronic components) to be located in the USA or a friendly nation, then China can't objectively complain that such USA policies hurt it.

Good luck forcing these companies out of China. Remember Trump ask GM to make ventilators? GM asked for 1 billion and Trump backed off quickly. Remember Foxconn opening factory in India to supply Iphone? They have given up on make the latest iphone there as expertise and infrastructure are simply not there.
And most importantly, these companies will be locked out of the Chinese market, the primary reason they are there in the first place. China won't object as there are always others to replace them.

 

[S10]

Okay, then how many 5G stuff, how many car did CN sell around the world this year?? Is it almost Zero ??

And abt rice, stop lying, ur leader Xi keep begging VN to sell more to save hundred million Cnese from starving to death now.
------

Rice export to CN increase 595 in quantity, 724% in value equal wt 67.000 tons ,abt 37 million usd
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...this-break-the-dominance-of-usd.660237/page-5


Some Cnese here realize that CN is in big trouble in 2022, even sooner than my prediction 1 year. R those Cnese not smart too or actually u r just a dumb red guard peasant ??

So you chose to ignore actual facts and data, and instead continue to screech like a brain damaged monkey? Sounds typical of you.

Even if industrial output and crop production dropped by half, we are still beyond your shithole of a country. The only thing you will be exporting is frozen corpses to Europe.

 

[riscol]

Corona virus inside the frozen mongrel is at least an insurance it will not be spreading further in Europe. Something for the English to keep in mind, keep them frozen.

 

[Faith_Lock]

I don't think US will have prolong recession at all. I think the worse is over already (economic wise, not disease wise).

This is an election year. US politicians will keep on borrowing and flood the country with USD. If anything, I think it will have big jump in GDP in 3Q and 4Q this year.

Of course, future generations of USA will pay for it. But the politicians' re-election has to be priority number 1.

 

[nang2]

I think the chance is very real for China becoming the largest economy (in GDP term, otherwise she has been already) in 1-2 year frame:

With COVID-19, the US economy will take a very heavy hit, due to the pathetic execution of the shutdown, the COVID-19 is likely to be around in the US for a very long time until maybe 12-18 months later when vaccine become widely available.

The US is a service-based economy (80% of their GDP) with very little industrial power and a giant money-printing machine, they could not afford a national lock-down for long, their economy will take a very huge hit.

And on top of it, even after the lock down, the long term impact is still very painful as we have found in China, even with the lift of shutdown, COVID-19 will particularly destroy the confidence of customer in service sector like the catering industry, the film and entertainment industry, and the tourism industry and such, even the medical service industry take a hit.

That's why one US Fed bank boss forecast the US economy can down 50% and unemployment rate hit 30% with national lockdown, and most US-based IB forecast the economy will down 5% if the COVID-19 will be gone in a quarter(which it wont, thanks to the massive incompetence of US).

So it is realistic to believe the US's economy will be down 20%+ in 1-2 years, and the dollar currency wont be at this position any longer, with their even more aggressive money-printing scams to try to cure coronavirus....

With China's great ability to control the disease and being the world only super industrial power, with relatively little dependence on service sector, and with the massive investment projects (to science and industry and infrastructure, not to stock market like the US), I think the impact will be minimized.

So I think China will become the world largest economy within 1-2 years.

How much money did you put down for this bet?

 

[S10]

Best of luck to china to be world's largest economy with -9% GDP growth projection.

If China recedes by 9% and everybody else recedes by 18%, then it's surely possible.

Right now it's a race to see who comes out with the least damage. China is the frontrunner.

 

[Old School]

Now explain the benefits if China becomes the world's largest economy. For the Chinese people as well as others.

 

[Viet]

I hadn't realized that China's internal market GDP was such a large part of China's recent growth. The figures I found for 2019 are China: Total exports $2.4T, exports to USA $ .5 T, GDP $14T. Meanwhile USA exports $2.5 T and GDP $22 T. So China's total exports represent 17% of GDP whereas the USA's exports are 12%, not too different. I had not realized that 83% of China's GDP was internal. And China's exports to the USA are only 3.5% of China's GDP. That is very good news. It means that USA companies can leave China without causing too much disruption in Chinese society. We need to leave China as much as we possibly can.

The trend of leaving China is there and will continue. The chinese lose every year between 1 to 1.5 percent in US foreign tradings to other countries with Vietnam and Mexico on the top that take the largest shares. In number: the percentage sinks from 67 percent in 2013 to 56 percent last year 2019.

I expect great impact on US/China relation should the share of China sink under 50 percent that is expected 4 or 5 years. The US will see it as success in decoupling from China.

This virus disaster shows clearly that relocating too much manufacturing on a single country is a way to abyss. The US, EU, UK with Germany on the top should continue moving manufacturing out of China. Nobody should feed a tiger.

 

[tower9]

I don't think US will have prolong recession at all. I think the worse is over already (economic wise, not disease wise).

This is an election year. US politicians will keep on borrowing and flood the country with USD. If anything, I think it will have big jump in GDP in 3Q and 4Q this year.

Of course, future generations of USA will pay for it. But the politicians' re-election has to be priority number 1.

I hope this is the case. Either way the US will be printing a lot of money and be deeper in debt after this, like it was after the last recession.

 

[Mista]

I hope this is the case. Either way the US will be printing a lot of money and be deeper in debt after this, like it was after the last recession.

Yeah. It's going to have a long term impact on the US economy after QE and the massive stimulus.

 

[Paul2]

So when this happened, US started buying lots of Chinese goods?

YES