The possiblity that China become the world largest economy in 1-2 years?

[Raphael]

Nope, 2025 at the very minimum even if COVID-19 drives US into a recession for the next two years.

With the world entering a recession, China's growth is going to slow to a crawl.

Slow growth is better than 20%-30% contraction. Before, economists predicted 2030 would be the nominal GDP changeover date. Now I think 2025 is the latest, could be as early as 2022.

Anyway, I hope central government manages the economy steadily and cautiously. Wen Jiabao's 2008-2009 4T¥ RMB stimulus was one of the dumbest things the government has done in recent memory. Why did we need double-digit growth during a worldwide recession and financial crisis?

Instead, this slow-growth period is a good opportunity to sort out banking sector and especially non-performing loans.

CN 2023

@Viva_Viet 's favorite emoji is actually the smoking one
...

 

[Viva_Viet]

So when this happened, US started buying lots of Chinese goods?

Actualy its US products manufacturing in CN. I still keep a zipo made in US after VN war

 

[Nilgiri]

@Viva_Viet 's favorite emoji is actually the smoking one

You sure about it?

https://defence.pk/pdf/search/20715344/?q=:cool:&o=date&c[user][0]=40895

 

[S10]

If the USA is so devastated by the virus, who will buy all of China's stuff?

Trade with US represents less than 20% of China's foreign trade. In total less than 5% of GDP is related to US trade, and 60% of products were geared for domestic consumption. Don't inflate your ego too much.

CN is also servive based economy now, 2/3 factories are leaving CN due to high labour cost and trade war.

CN is no longer manufacturing powerhouse, not mentioning CN is running out of rice and Xi has to keep trying to buying rice from other countries. No one buy CN 5G and car during the pademic.

LOL at China no longer being a manufacturing powerhouse. Bold statement to make considering China has the world's largest industrial output. Agent Orange poisoning is serious with this one.

Double LOL at China running out of rice. We got more than 100kg of rice produced for each person in China annually. That's not counting other crops such as wheat and barley. Maybe you're running out of brain cells.

 

[Han Patriot]

CN 2023

I always thought you were a smarter Indian. Alas, still the same.

 

[Viva_Viet]

LOL at China no longer being a manufacturing powerhouse. Bold statement to make considering China has the world's largest industrial output. Agent Orange poisoning is serious with this one.

Double LOL at China running out of rice. We got more than 100kg of rice produced for each person in China annually. That's not counting other crops such as wheat and barley. Maybe you're running out of brain cells.

Okay, then how many 5G stuff, how many car did CN sell around the world this year?? Is it almost Zero ??

And abt rice, stop lying, ur leader Xi keep begging VN to sell more to save hundred million Cnese from starving to death now.
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Rice export to CN increase 595 in quantity, 724% in value equal wt 67.000 tons ,abt 37 million usd
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...this-break-the-dominance-of-usd.660237/page-5

I always thought you were a smarter Indian. Alas, still the same.

Some Cnese here realize that CN is in big trouble in 2022, even sooner than my prediction 1 year. R those Cnese not smart too or actually u r just a dumb red guard peasant ??

 

[Han Patriot]

Okay, then how many 5G stuff, how many car did CN sell around the world this year?? Is it almost Zero ??

And abt rice, stop lying, ur leader Xi keep begging VN to sell more to save hundred million Cnese from starving to death now.
------

Rice export to CN increase 595 in quantity, 724% in value equal wt 67.000 tons ,abt 37 million usd
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...this-break-the-dominance-of-usd.660237/page-5


Some Cnese here realize that CN is in big trouble in 2022, even sooner than my prediction 1 year. R those Cnese not smart too or actually u r just a dumb red guard peasant ??

Ok I am just waiting. So if by 2022 China doesn't collapse, then you are an idiot right? Lol

 

[TruthSeeker]

Trade with US represents less than 20% of China's foreign trade. In total less than 5% of GDP is related to US trade, and 60% of products were geared for domestic consumption.

I hadn't realized that China's internal market GDP was such a large part of China's recent growth. The figures I found for 2019 are China: Total exports $2.4T, exports to USA $ .5 T, GDP $14T. Meanwhile USA exports $2.5 T and GDP $22 T. So China's total exports represent 17% of GDP whereas the USA's exports are 12%, not too different. I had not realized that 83% of China's GDP was internal. And China's exports to the USA are only 3.5% of China's GDP. That is very good news. It means that USA companies can leave China without causing too much disruption in Chinese society. We need to leave China as much as we possibly can.

 

[Mista]

US, probably not.

But EU without the UK? Very likely in the next 2 or 3 years, or maybe this year if the EU goes into a deep recession.

EU 2019 GDP: $16 trillion excluding the UK
China 2019 GDP: $14 trillion

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I hadn't realized that China's internal market GDP was such a large part of China's recent growth. The figures I found for 2019 are China: Total exports $2.4T, exports to USA $ .5 T, GDP $14T. Meanwhile USA exports $2.5 T and GDP $22 T. So China's total exports represent 17% of GDP whereas the USA's exports are 12%, not too different. I had not realized that 83% of China's GDP was internal. And China's exports to the USA are only 3.5% of China's GDP. That is very good news. It means that USA companies can leave China without causing too much disruption in Chinese society. We need to leave China as much as we possibly can.

I'm actually quite surprised that you're willing to correct your misconceptions based on fact. Not something I've seen your countrymen do often, props to you. Unfortunately for you, American companies desperately want to do business in China and have no intention of leaving if the choice were up to them. Given the political power of American capital and the sway it holds over the government, the choice is pretty much up to them.

 

[nang2]

I'm actually quite surprised that you're willing to correct your misconceptions based on fact. Not something I've seen your countrymen do often, props to you. Unfortunately for you, American companies desperately want to do business in China and have no intention of leaving if the choice were up to them. Given the political power of American capital and the sway it holds over the government, the choice is pretty much up to them.

The political power of capital comes from its profit. The more profit it generates, the more political power it is willing to wield. Doing business in China or not depends on the profit. If China market is hostile towards American companies, it affects the profit. If US-China relationship goes sour, it posts greater risks to the profit. So, you see, the choice is not much up to them but to the environment in which they try to make a profit.

 

[Viet]

US, probably not.

But EU without the UK? Very likely in the next 2 or 3 years, or maybe this year if the EU goes into a deep recession.

EU 2019 GDP: $16 trillion excluding the UK
China 2019 GDP: $14 trillion

The US, EU and UK will slip into recession in Q1. Q2 too if we can’t stop the virus spread. The demand of chinese goods except face masks will sink to an invisible level. The world has no appetite for big imports. We all will suffer, including China. I don’t think they will be better off. 500,000 chinese companies went burst permanently in Q1. More closures are coming. The US, EU, UK reconsider manufacturing in China because they see the risk. Even after the virus is gone, because the West is highly indebted they will not buy huge made in China products. They first have to pay back the debts. But Ok let the chinese with their superpower dream.

 

[dbc]

I hadn't realized that China's internal market GDP was such a large part of China's recent growth. The figures I found for 2019 are China: Total exports $2.4T, exports to USA $ .5 T, GDP $14T. Meanwhile USA exports $2.5 T and GDP $22 T. So China's total exports represent 17% of GDP whereas the USA's exports are 12%, not too different. I had not realized that 83% of China's GDP was internal. And China's exports to the USA are only 3.5% of China's GDP. That is very good news. It means that USA companies can leave China without causing too much disruption in Chinese society. We need to leave China as much as we possibly can.

 

[casual]

More like 10-20 years. Starving camel is still bigger then a horse and all that. Besides, China will be badly affected by covid19 as well. Until China can turn up domestic consumption and challenge dollar reserve currency status, I don't see it happening.

 

[Surya 1]

I think the chance is very real for China becoming the largest economy (in GDP term, otherwise she has been already) in 1-2 year frame:

With COVID-19, the US economy will take a very heavy hit, due to the pathetic execution of the shutdown, the COVID-19 is likely to be around in the US for a very long time until maybe 12-18 months later when vaccine become widely available.

The US is a service-based economy (80% of their GDP) with very little industrial power and a giant money-printing machine, they could not afford a national lock-down for long, their economy will take a very huge hit.

And on top of it, even after the lock down, the long term impact is still very painful as we have found in China, even with the lift of shutdown, COVID-19 will particularly destroy the confidence of customer in service sector like the catering industry, the film and entertainment industry, and the tourism industry and such, even the medical service industry take a hit.

That's why one US Fed bank boss forecast the US economy can down 50% and unemployment rate hit 30% with national lockdown, and most US-based IB forecast the economy will down 5% if the COVID-19 will be gone in a quarter(which it wont, thanks to the massive incompetence of US).

So it is realistic to believe the US's economy will be down 20%+ in 1-2 years, and the dollar currency wont be at this position any longer, with their even more aggressive money-printing scams to try to cure coronavirus....

With China's great ability to control the disease and being the world only super industrial power, with relatively little dependence on service sector, and with the massive investment projects (to science and industry and infrastructure, not to stock market like the US), I think the impact will be minimized.

So I think China will become the world largest economy within 1-2 years.

Best of luck to china to be world's largest economy with -9% GDP growth projection.