The Pakistani State is Collapsing at a Very Fast Pace!

[airmarshal]

We always seen racism and violence between ethnicities, militancy, PPP Sindh party v PmlN Punjabi party, MQM etc. When PTI/IK came, they united all Pakistanis on one platform. I thought this was a clever plan to unite all Pakistanis but shocking how we have gone back to square one. I can't possibly find any benefit in what the establishment is doing.

Imran and PTI is a uniting force. In all this mess, there are a lot of positives too. We are thinking as one nation. We have recognized the real faces playing game of smoke and mirrors with us for last 7 decades. We have clarity, we have purpose.

One thing needs to be done. General Bajwa must be hanged. For once, a military general has to stand trial and be held accountable. He has done in 1 year what India or any of our perceived enemies could not have in a generation.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Either army succeeds in killing Ik

Army has no such plans.. this is just a one big Lie being propagated by some dumb vloggers
Parroting the lie doenst make it true

 

[Menace2Society]

What do you think the aftermath of a collapse would be?

The army is too strong for it to collapse but it will go bankrupt and we will discover how deep the corruption is. All will be laid bare.

If there is risk of civil war PA has full immunity. They could genocide and the west will look the other way.

When congress asked are Pakistans nukes safe, it was code for is the army in control. He said yes.

I hope the army come on the same page as IK and dump PDM and save a lot of turmoil.

 

[Pakstallion]

Army has no such plans.. this is just a one big Lie being propagated by some dumb vloggers
Parroting the lie doenst make it true

So I guess u support an army officer killing his superior when he gives him this illegal order to kill IK?

There have been complex attempts on his life JIT being sabotaged and people forced to change their statements. He hasn’t been allowed as a former PM, to register an FIr which is his right. It’s like saying they didn’t kill Arshad but basically every ounce of evidence points at them. They certainly hounded the patriot out of the country and are trying to do the same to him. U can say it’s a few bloggers but it’s what the people and the world will think if it happens. It is the army job to protect Ik if not as former PM then to protect their own reputation.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

So I guess

Keep guessing.. you need good practice at tha

 

[xyx007]

There is no benefit in the balkanization of Pakistan in favor of India because it will break India as well. In the entire middle east and south asian region, this will create big unrest that we could not have ever imagined at that time. In Pakistan, people don't like CC control Morsi in Egypt or in Malaysia, all calculations go wrong if you touch Imran Khan, and if you touch him off course there is no option left for people in power but to kill Imran Khan.

 

[PakAlp]

Imran and PTI is a uniting force. In all this mess, there are a lot of positives too. We are thinking as one nation. We have recognized the real faces playing game of smoke and mirrors with us for last 7 decades. We have clarity, we have purpose.

One thing needs to be done. General Bajwa must be hanged. For once, a military general has to stand trial and be held accountable. He has done in 1 year what India or any of our perceived enemies could not have in a generation.

I am blaming the establishment for their fake cases, trials, arrests etc. Regarding the NCM, having foreign interference makes no difference because Usa and west have always been doing this. We all know IK lost the majority in the parliament and PTI allies and lotas betrayed IK. This was his downfall. Yes Bajwa allowed it but I am sure PDM also must be pressurising Bajwa to take his hand off from IK back. Regarding foreign policy, I agree establishment had major disagreements with IK.

Army has no such plans.. this is just a one big Lie being propagated by some dumb vloggers
Parroting the lie doenst make it true

What was the solution to the NCM? IK clearly lost the majority and the opposition removed him from power. I however would say it was clearly visible the differences between Bajwa and IK, regarding Russia/Ukraine, Palestinian Issue, Kashmir issues, Malaysian summit etc. The army simply allowed the opposition to take on IK and remove him. IK needs to make sure his party is without any traitors and lotas so next time noone can remove him. PTI also took politicians from PPP and PMLN, as the saying goes "PPP wicket fell" PMLN wicket fell"

 

[ziaulislam]

Quite the contrary, Central Punjab never made decisions. It's a myth created and parroted mindlessly by ethno-nationalists from other regions of Pakistan. Central Punjab has never dominated Pakistan Army. Nor are Pashtuns an oppressed ethnic group. They have always been as much a part and parcel of our system/establishment as Punjabis are

Agreed on the second part though, "missing list updated" was never a smart thing to say, and now majority of Punjabis (too) realize this. As they say,

واہ پیا جانے یا راہ پیا جانے
Wah piya janey ya rah piya janey

People of Punjab, esp the urban middle class, never had to 'deal' with Pak Army before so they had no idea about what people of Balochistan, some parts of KP and MQM had been going through

Oh bhai? Apart from few exceptions at benazir time any govt formed had to win from central Punjab.

PMLN formed govt this yr despite being party restricted to just central Punjab.

Central Punjab has 100 seats out of 242

Pushtoons and pushtoons parties have been under pressure since the 1950s and FATA has been bombed and destroyed since 1990s so I don't know which alternate world you live in.

Khan Abdul ghaffar surely supported Congress because he liked ghandi struggle against the British but people decided to vote for Pakistan but he was still apart of political process yet was kept in jail for his views. He supported and nominated Fatima Jinnah againt ayub, signed the 1973 constitution while heartedly yet his govt was overthrown and ultimately party banned completely ...

Now if that's not taught to you or if you don't study independently it doesn't mean it never happened.

Problem in Pakistan is that people see things as black and white not the true colors which a re several hundred shades..

If someone past is the measurement of them then shouldn't Jinnah be considered traitor for his support for Congress before he joined PML???

WHY was NP banned in 1970s, why was a drone campaign and extra judicial killing allowed in KP is the question

 

[YeBeWarned]

When was Pakistan a State ?

 

[Mirzali Khan]

Disintegration of the state. Unfortunately, there are too many fault lines in Pakistan and society is polarized.

The institutions have become a tool of oppression and dysfunctional.

Ultimately, that isn't about Imran Khan anymore. It's gone way beyond that. The state has started to implode and the real powers military establishment have lost control and they only know one thing: force.


This force (i.e. open terrorist) by Pakistani military establishment is going to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

Yeah past year showed they are true duffers.

I genuinely have no idea who in the upper echelons of power thought it would be a good idea to get Ishaq Dar onboard.

Both PPP and PMLN started off as national parties. Bhutto ko Bhutto Punjab ne bnaya tha. Later on PMLN got a two-thirds majority in the national assembly in 1997.

They had their chances, and they failed to deliver. Their own incompetence and corruption, coupled with GHQ political manoeuvering led to their ultimate downfall.

Gillani also made inroads in 2008 in Punjab.

Do you think if Gillani was successful in his attempt to get army under civilian control we wouldn't have this problem today?

But then their plan backfired, and now they don't know what to do.

Their plan backfired because now youth and social media is 2 steps ahead of faujeets.

Or some army officer refuses illegal order to kill IK, kills the treasonous officer who gives that illegal order and get presidential pardon from Alvi.

Definitely not happening.

WHY was NP banned in 1970s, why was a drone campaign and extra judicial killing allowed in KP is the question

And why was Akbar Bugti allowed to take the reins of power in Balochistan.

That's another question faujeets need to answer.

 

[ziaulislam]

Not quite. It’s not going to collapse nor there will be a civil war. America won’t allow it as the country serves as a pressure point to keep Afghanistan, Iran, and India in line. This is how’s US foreign policy works, support countries against each other to extract maximum benefits for itself.

I doubt even without foreign intervention there will be a civil war now. Chances are historically low infact.

As there are no two groups that can fight a civil war.

It's just army vs people previously there was a risk(Punjabi vs Pathan/Baloch/Sindhi etc) but now everyone agrees what the problem is i.e un constitutional moves /extra judicial moves by the army

It either will be hybrid govt or democracy simple as that..more like a Myanmar situation minus the Muslim problem there.


Army will either suppress or fail to suppress the people

I expect hybrid approach to run as politicans have happily sold their soul

When was Pakistan a State ?

Since 5000 years ago/Indus civilization

 

[M. Sarmad]

Central Punjab has 100 seats out of 242

First of all get your facts straight.

Central Punjab has 83 seats out of 266
That's less than one-third

PTI formed the government in the center despite losing to PMLN in central Punjab

Your claim that no party can form government without winning from Central Punjab is factually incorrect

We can discuss the rest of the points you raised if you are willing to accept plain facts and figures

 

[Maula Jatt]

for my doomist friends

For civil war to happen we have to disagree like north, south US disagreeing on slavery - here everyone agrees on the problem- who are we going to fight against? Each other - but what for?
There's no ideological differences here we are a federation and all of us agree on proper democracy, decentralization of power down to the local bodies like 18th amendment

None of us are in disagreement when it comes to our issues politically speaking

Yes civil war can happen if Pakistan's administrative units wants to secede through thier provincial assemblies - I don't see that happening in any provincial assembly as of now
although with the power hungry people in power IDK, they can to maintain power over their political fiefdoms do anything, our elites are notoriously short sighted and selfish
Would never consider the plight of their people afterwards

Third and likely solution - run this hybrid system where you have a civillian set-up from all political parties and you have only one Big opposition party to deal with
Government runs purely because it's backed by the Army - no election no nothing, use court's to forcefully give this power grap a legal cover

This will lead to a slow civil war - as in you kill that bigger party, your united opposition dies out, now those disunited but aggitated people look towards ttp, bla, Punjabi Taliban groups - all kinda groups along both ethnic, islamic lines and sometimes both at the same time
This is the recepie for eternal chaos - they'll never be powerful enough to take down the state but powerful enough to make everyone's life hell, even if they succeed in taking down the state than that'll lead to x10 bigger problems - your women will be sold in slave markets of Kabul to Delhi to ME
That's the absolute worst case scenario

4th option- Burma, Egypt solution where people and army are not thinking alike - thus repression follows to maintain their grip on power, Martial law zero f's given

@Areesh @Olympus81 @TNT @M. Sarmad @ziaulislam

 

[ziaulislam]

for my doomist friends

For civil war to happen we have to disagree like north, south US disagreeing on slavery - here everyone agrees on the problem- who are we going to fight against? Each other - but what for?
There's no ideological differences here we are a federation and all of us agree on proper democracy, decentralization of power down to the local bodies like 18th amendment

None of us are in disagreement when it comes to our issues politically speaking

Yes civil war can happen if Pakistan's administrative units wants to secede through thier provincial assemblies - I don't see that happening in any provincial assembly as of now
although with the power hungry people in power IDK, they can to maintain power over their political fiefdoms do anything, our elites are notoriously short sighted and selfish
Would never consider the plight of their people afterwards

Third and likely solution - run this hybrid system where you have a civillian set-up from all political parties and you have only one Big opposition party to deal with
Government runs purely because it's backed by the Army - no election no nothing, use court's to forcefully give this power grap a legal cover

This will lead to a slow civil war - as in you kill that bigger party, your united opposition dies out, now those disunited but aggitated people look towards ttp, bla, Punjabi Taliban groups - all kinda groups along both ethnic, islamic lines and sometimes both at the same time
This is the recepie for eternal chaos - they'll never be powerful enough to take down the state but powerful enough to make everyone's life hell, even if they succeed in taking down the state than that'll lead to x10 bigger problems - your women will be sold in slave markets of Kabul to Delhi to ME
That's the absolute worst case scenario

4th option- Burma, Egypt solution where people and army are not thinking alike - thus repression follows to maintain their grip on power, Martial law zero f's given

@Areesh @Olympus81 @TNT @M. Sarmad @ziaulislam

Fully agree I think the chance of civil war actually historically at lowest since 1975!!

However we may end up either with hybrid regime like Burma eygpt or democracy..either way it won't be a civil war may be few 100s people will die in crack down like we saw in China Myanmar and eygpt but that's pretty much it.

Will we bankrupt yes..no doubt unless last minute China or uncle Sam change their mind


Will it change anything major ..no..

We bankrupted in 1998 as well.

It will mean poverty and prolonged era of slow growth but nothing else really

Future?

Maryum Nawaz and Junaid safder..why??

Bradery system is still strong in Pakistan you may hate maryum but you won't hate your cousin who is fighting elections on her ticket..

Maryum and family has made deep connections and those connections won't be destroyed in Punjab PMLN Will live on in Punjab for next 100 years unless leader ship fractures(ie maryum juanid safder, shahbaz and hamza leaves permanently)

 

[NagaBaba]

This isn't the first time the Pk military has interfered in politics and removed a sitting PM

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_coups_in_Pakistan

53, 58, 77, 99