the gap between China and US GDP will jump from $5.3 Trillion in 2021 to an estimated $8.3 Trillion in 2022

[letsrock]

Chinese vaccines work better, US still suffers 500 death everyday and their life expectancy dropped by 2 years in 2 years. US is not an example for China to follow, China will open up but in her way method, China actually had already successfully dodged a bullet, now the covid is becoming much less deadly and researchers became much familiar with this virus , many vaccines , drugs and treatments are available, even China opens up now, the virus won't devastate China like it did to US and India.

Then why are you so upset with zero covid policy.

 

[beijingwalker]

Then why are you so upset with zero covid policy.

I m upset because I think there are better ways to deal with it, but US approach is the worst which can happen to the humanity which I never think it's an option.

 

[FuturePAF]

Chinese vaccines work better, US still suffers 500 death everyday and their life expectancy dropped by 2 years in 2 years. US is not an example for China to follow, China will open up but in her way method, China actually had already successfully dodged a bullet, now the covid is becoming much less deadly and researchers became much familiar with this virus , many vaccines , drugs and treatments are available, even China opens up now, the virus won't devastate China like it did to US and India.

I have to disagree on the efficacy of Chinese vaccines compared to the two mRNA vaccines, but at the end of the day, they are good enough.

How China’s Sinovac compares with BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine

The need for three doses for similar protection has large implications for China

www.economist.com

As has been indicated, China plans to open up slowly over the next 6 months (hinted by Li Keqiang) . US Covid response was not optimal (in fact a lot was sub-optimal, I know cause I was taking care of Covid patients day in day out that whole year) but it did allow most people to return to their normal ASAP. The official Chinese death count is considered suspect by most of the world, so no one really now how many people actually died, but at this point that is besides the point.

At this point, China is the last country with major lockdowns, and most people seem to want to get back to normal ASAP, and who can blame them, especially after the 20th party congress and political reasons.

My original question was, do you think the Chinese economy will significantly rebound to its past trajectory when the lockdowns end, or will internal (housing market) and external (global recession) potential hindrances significantly slow that recovery down?

 

[tonyget]

Due to slow growth？The US's real GDP is in negative growth，it's more like due to exchange rate，USD has appreciated so much relative to other currencies

 

[beijingwalker]

I have to disagree on the efficacy of Chinese vaccines compared to the two mRNA vaccines, but at the end of the day, they are good enough.

How China’s Sinovac compares with BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine

The need for three doses for similar protection has large implications for China

www.economist.com

China bashing western and Indian reports are of no value at all, the facts always speak more volume, over 1 million Americans had already died and they are still dying in hundreds every 24 hours from covid non stop, this is how effective their vaccines are. Their vaccines brought their average life expectancy down by 2 years in 2 years.

 

[beijingwalker]

The official Chinese death count is considered suspect by most of the world, so no one really now how many people actually died, but at this point that is besides the point.

I live in China and I know the facts free of western China bashing media, I personally knew no one got this virus let along dying from it. The west always tries to argue about the authentiy of the Chinese figures to justify how pathetic their own response to covid, in China , every single case and its close contacts and time and space possible contact are reported and updated twice a day on media and onto your cellphone, the western media takes advantage that most of its receivers don't read Chinese and have no access to Chinese media to fool and brainwash them.

 

[aziqbal]

Russia and China should make a bipolar world and counter the US at every opportunity and by that I mean also militarily

Russia did not support Iraq against US like US is supporting Ukraine against Russia why?

and China just stays quite

 

[beijingwalker]

My original question was, do you think the Chinese economy will significantly rebound to its past trajectory when the lockdowns end, or will internal (housing market) and external (global recession) potential hindrances significantly slow that recovery down?

The covid has been around for 3 years already, judging the economic performance of the past 3 years as a whole and see whose economy fared relatively better during this global crisis.

or will internal (housing market) and external (global recession) potential hindrances significantly slow that recovery down?

Housing market? declined or 0,01%, not enough for me to buy a new house.

Nov 1, 2022 — Prices in 100 cities in China dropped for a fourth month in October, falling 0.01% month-on-month after a decline of 0.02% in September https://www.reuters.com/world/china...-falling-prices-sales-covid-bites-2022-11-01/

 

[beijingwalker]

Comparing to US...

Wall Street: U.S. housing market to see the second-biggest home price decline since the Great Depression​

Wall Street: The U.S. housing market to see the second biggest home price decline since the Great Depression

There's a new consensus on Wall Street: We're headed for a historically sharp home price drop.

fortune.com

 

[StraightEdge]

View attachment 895307

^^ This graph itself is fake. IMF predicts US GDP growth to be about 1.6%. China to grow about 3.2% even with lockdowns. Even a 6th standard student can tell you that the graph is incorrect/fake.

 

[beijingwalker]

^^ This graph itself is fake. IMF predicts US GDP growth to be about 1.6%. China to grow about 3.2% even with lockdowns. Even a 6th standard student can tell you that the graph is incorrect/fake.

This is what IMF predicted Last month, but they always change month by month

15 October, 2022, 06:10 pm

The world is facing a difficult 2023 as growth slows in most developed economies. The extent of the deceleration depends in large part on how decisively President Xi Jinping props up the Chinese economy after next week's key Party Congress.

The world's second-largest economy has had a tough year. Its top problem is a crashing property market; real estate is the country's traditional growth engine, accounting for a fifth of GDP. The danger is that the crisis will spill over into the financial sector, torpedoing investment. Meanwhile shocks stemming from Xi's regulatory crackdowns and extreme zero-Covid policy have also taken their toll. The International Monetary Fund forecasts published this week reckon China's GDP will expand by just 3.2% this year, down from 8.1% in 2021.

Yet as the developed world suffers a slowdown next year prompted by rising interest rates and higher energy costs, China offers a relative bright spot. Though the IMF has trimmed its forecasts for the country, it expects the People's Republic will grow by 4.4% in 2023. If that's accurate, using last year's nominal country GDP figures as a base, and applying the IMF's forecast 2022 and 2023 inflation-adjusted growth estimates for each, China will account for 30% of aggregate global growth next year. The world economy will expand by 2.7% in 2023, per the IMF.

China's contribution to global growth will be more than three times greater than the United States. Though America remains the world's largest economy, the IMF expects it to grow by just 1%, while the Euro area will expand at just half that rate. The top bright spot, India, isn't nearly big enough to offset much gloom. The South Asian nation produces roughly 3% of world GDP. Even if it expands by 6.1% as forecast, it will account for just 7.7% of global growth.

So, the big hope rests with Xi. After the political meeting that is likely to secure him an historic third term is out of the way, he may be able to return his focus to economic expansion. Even if China does decide to revive growth, it's far from clear that it will succeed. But the fate of exporters from Australia to South Korea and multinational consumer groups will depend to a large extent on decisions made in Beijing.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts the global economy will grow 2.7% in 2023.

Wall Street: The U.S. housing market to see the second biggest home price decline since the Great Depression

There's a new consensus on Wall Street: We're headed for a historically sharp home price drop.

fortune.com

 

[letsrock]

Modern world is built of steel

In 2020, total world crude steel production was 1877.5 million tonnes (Mt). The biggest steel producing country is currently China, which accounted for 57% of world steel production in 2020.[1] In 2020, China became the first country to produce over one billion tons of steel.

View attachment 895501

This is a little exaggeration. Yes - steel production is a proxy of economic growth but not as much as these graph indicates - China and india use a lot of steel in construction of residential properties whereas in us its only used in high rises.

Second is that us infrastructure is mostly built out whereas china still has catch up to do on per capita basis. So it is building at frenetic pace to catch up.

And yes china manufacturing also is there.

 

[etylo]

If China accepts the BioNTech vaccine from Pfizer and opens up, taking the chances with covid cases, do you think the economy will recover?

He probably only has 5 years left if he doesn’t get the economics right.

China doesnt really need western vaccines, its just Chinese attitude on the pandemic that is really matter, that is too cautious now.

 

[Black Tornado]

China and india use a lot of steel in construction of residential properties whereas in us its only used in high rises.

Really? India and China has more high rises and skyscrapers in construction than USA.

 

[etylo]

If there are hundred

I have to disagree on the efficacy of Chinese vaccines compared to the two mRNA vaccines, but at the end of the day, they are good enough.

How China’s Sinovac compares with BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine

The need for three doses for similar protection has large implications for China

www.economist.com

As has been indicated, China plans to open up slowly over the next 6 months (hinted by Li Keqiang) . US Covid response was not optimal (in fact a lot was sub-optimal, I know cause I was taking care of Covid patients day in day out that whole year) but it did allow most people to return to their normal ASAP. The official Chinese death count is considered suspect by most of the world, so no one really now how many people actually died, but at this point that is besides the point.

At this point, China is the last country with major lockdowns, and most people seem to want to get back to normal ASAP, and who can blame them, especially after the 20th party congress and political reasons.

My original question was, do you think the Chinese economy will significantly rebound to its past trajectory when the lockdowns end, or will internal (housing market) and external (global recession) potential hindrances significantly slow that recovery down?

If there were hundred of thousands or million of deaths in China as some westerners believe in the pandemic, then there are should be corpses lying on the streets and parks, and burning corpses in the public becos the crematories just couldnt handle them, people would have pictures of corpses circulating in the internet, no way to hide.