China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

[beijingwalker]

ah! the Zhengwei of the peanut gallery has arrived. You sure debunked my post with a single meme. Well done!

What your post? western media said the same thing about China's economy for 4 decades at least, when would it really happen? until last month, China's exports still hit the record high, China recently locked down some cities which may cause some short term stagnation in those regions and you see it as China growth coming to an end?

 

[MultaniGuy]

What your post? western media said the same thing about China's economy for 4 decades at least, when would it really happen? until last month, China's exports still hit the record high, China recently locked down some cities which may cause some short term stagnation in those regions and you see it as China growth coming to an end?

Everything in the world is manufactured in China.

From the smallest things to advanced computers.

China will be the world's largest economy by 2025.

 

[aviator_fan]

16 wheel transport by air? Which world are u living in for such commercial deal for mass scale? Tell me?

It said 16 wheel trucks. I didn't say by air.

Its the default way that everything that China sends outside to all over the world gets moved on any continent. It doesn't suck if China is getting its goods to the end consumer.

 

[aviator_fan]

Lol.. let me ask u. Since China aviation is so reliant on US components. Why didn't US ban components export to C919 since our r/s with US is so bad?

You think we really need their components? If not for facilitate FAA approval. We don't even need a single import. You are so naive and brainwashed by neocon media.

Without a single US parts, which US companies will fight for C919 FAA approval for COMAC? Tell me genuis?

Hey 'Beast', i know the censors prevent what you can see and not see within China so the only way you interact with outside world is forums like these.

That is fine since many of us want to understand what is going on in China (which is why we debate on this forum) vs. listen to the press blindly. So stop being a stooge and putting funny emojis and 'lols' on because you are frustrated that a fact that you find out here does not match up with what you are told from school on up. We are keen to debate/learn or debunk. Putting 'lols' makes you sound like an informed person vs. somebody coming here with facts.

I want China to be successful, but I am not going to take baseless facts or some assumptions that CHina is super human and its figured everything out. Thats what Xi tells you to stay under the lockdows by the millions and to relect him for rest of life, but pls don't make that super human mentality to this forum. And this is NOT me promoting some western narrative. I would call somebody out the same way at s**t if its baseless about somebody describing a western economy in superlatives.

Since China is great and independent and doesn't need anything, why would it need FAA certification? Your domestic traffic is large enough. Just like you don't get FDA certification for Chinese pharmas you sell in China, it makes no sense why you would do that for aviation targeted for China.

Fact is China doesn't have an equivalent of Honeywell for avionics (at least not civilian avionics) and no economically, safe engine at this time for commercial travel.

I am sure experts in other industries probably have similar examples. The world is an interdependent place. Nobody in any advanced economy can say they are completely independent and don't need the world for anything but somehow the Chinese on this forum seem to continue to parrot it and assume any counter argument is an insult to China.

And for the record, nobody knows what the future holds with economies. Nobody could have predicted 20 years ago what would have happened today and what would happen in the future.

 

[MH.Yang]

plenty, start with demographics, decline in productivity, transition from low cost manufacturing to high value economy, declining returns from investments, financially stressed state owned banks and enterprise, urban-rural inequity, environmental issues including carbon footprint and pollution. I haven't even scratched the surface, but I'm sure you think all of the above is western MSM lies so it's kinda pointless to expect an honest assessment from you. The above issues have been highlighted by Chinese economist in several peer reviewed papers and reiterated by state officials.

But around here Chinese members are less interested in an honest discussion they'd rather flex to the theme of 'China stronk' encouraged by a chorus of cheers from the peanut gallery. I'd rather hear the opinion of someone with knowledge supported by facts and I believe Mista fits the description.

1. China does have a declining population growth rate, but it will take decades for this problem to have a serious impact. We still have time. It is actually the only problem you mentioned correctly, and it is also the real problem we face.

2. Do you think China's production efficiency is declining? If the production efficiency drops, it will be directly reflected in GDP. In fact, due to the popularity of high-tech equipment such as robots, China's production efficiency is rising rapidly.

3. Our transformation from low-tech to high-tech is very smooth. Now we have crossed the "middle-income trap" and become a high-income country. Moreover, the crazy interception behavior of the United States just proves our success.

4. The bad debt rate of China's state-owned banks is only 1.5%, which is much better than that of western countries. I don't know why you think China's state-owned banks will have financial problems.

5. There is indeed Urban-Rural Inequality in China, which is also a universal problem in the world. However, with the smooth implementation of the "poverty alleviation plan", this situation has been greatly improved.

6. China's environmental pollution has been greatly improved. Only two of the top 50 cities with the highest pollution in the world come from China, and these two cities are not industrial cities. Their pollution comes from the desert. The problem now is that the United States and European Union countries are renouncing the Carbon neutralization goal. Only China still insists on improving the environment.

https://www.iqair.com/world-most-polluted-cities

Draft law shows Germany plans to revise key emissions target for energy sector

Germany's ruling coalition is to revise a key climate target to reach greenhouse gas emissions neutrality in the country's energy industry by 2035, a draft law seen by Reuters showed on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Mista]

aren't you trivialising structure issues by calling it economic headwinds. So far, the Chinese response to these 'headwinds' is more stimulus with a large share going into infrastructure kicking the can (pain) a little further into the future.

how does China eliminate all that red ink from its ledger? You sound like you know a thing or two about economic fundamentals and quite a bit about China. So, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the subject.

start with demographics, decline in productivity, transition from low cost manufacturing to high value economy, declining returns from investments, financially stressed state owned banks and enterprise, urban-rural inequity, environmental issues including carbon footprint and pollution.

The problems you listed here won't be going away. To be fair, these problems aren't unique to China. In Singapore we've been talking about upgrading the economy and improve productivity since the 1980s, we even have a mascot for it, and today after 40 years we are still talking about it. It's a never-ending marathon to improve ourselves. Western economists like Paul Krugman also criticize Singapore and other Asian Tiger's economic growth in the 1990s as not sustainable, but we know how that turn out in the end.

https://www.gsid.nagoya-u.ac.jp/sotsubo/Krugman.pdf

After half a century of success, the Asian tigers must reinvent themselves

They must move from growth-obsessed developmental states, to growth-friendly welfare states, say Simon Rabinovitch and Simon Cox

www.economist.com

Demographics is a real problem for them though, in Singapore we can manage to ameliorate it through immigration but China can't.

These problems in China have existed for the past decade or so, it didn't stop them from growing at average of ~5% in 2020/2021. The reason why they have slowed down dramatically this year is due to Covid lockdowns which halts economic activities in cities affected and also dampen consumer/investment sentiments in those cities not under lockdown. However these lockdowns are temporary because they are simply not sustainable and one day they will learn that they will have to live with Covid like the rest of world did, which I think they will then resume their growth trajectory.

 

[aviator_fan]

The 'stronger' usa gdp gets, the shorter americans' lives.
Looks like they have invented new economic theories.

China's life expectancy is now higher than that of the US

China's life expectancy is now higher than that of the US By Mary Hui Sept. 1 2022 The US’s life expectancy continued its decline from 2020 to 2021, dropping sharply to 76.1 years. With the latest decline, US life expectancy is now at its lowest since 1996, according to new data (pdf) from...

defence.pk

Did you even bother reading the full article: biggest contributor is COVID. But guess what, after that one time hit, life in most western countries i have visited is normal. Travel is pre-peak and everything is humming. Its the oppsite as everything is overtaxed.

Millions of elderly have not been vaccinated in China. These mass city lockdowns would work but for how long? Hong Kong being a microchasm has the highest death rate in the world. I am talking 'RATE" not absolute.

I don't think any body can say that life in every city is normal. 20 cases will lead to entire 10m population will be locked down.

But lets ignore that for a moment and assume that better life expectancy is better.

From a pure economic standpoint only (I hope elders in everybody's family live long lives) A person's productive life is till the 60s at best. If somebody is living to be 77 or 79, it doesn't matter what that number is since in economic terms the person is not contributing but consuming off the economy in terms of social care and support and needs the younger population to work and pay into the system to support them.

A high dependency ratio is a danger to the economy since the number of workers supporting the elderly declines. This happens because of two reasons: people live longer AND population decline. Its already in Japan at 70%.

This is a problem in many economies and my comment is not specific to China, but the decline in population in China is much more pronounced.

 

[Han Patriot]

HighSpeedRail Freight in China: cargo-partner

www.cargo-partner.com

View attachment 875918

You want to fit a ship container into a train? Why?

Because they are Indian and they only think in one direction. Lololol

 

[kankan326]

The obvious one is aviation: for 25 years China has been purchasing Boeing and Airbus airliners. The new C919 airliner has 40% of its major high-value equipment all imported. GE/Safran engines , Honeywell for avionics and so on...

China's industry is advanced and should be admired but its not at the expense of the rest of the world being stupid. Don't ask questions that have obvious answers. If Chinese sensors allow you, read more than what the Govt makes you read.

But China is a buyer of civil aircrafts. Not a seller. Bad example.

 

[dbc]

Covid lockdowns which halts economic activities in cities affected and also dampen consumer/investment

Thanks for your valuable input. But it isn't just the lockdown that has dampened confidence. For the longest time real estate was considered the safest bet for investments by the average Chinese absent a mature well governed stock market. But that confidence has been shaken recently with unfinished "rotten tail" buildings and shrinking demand. home prices continue to fall for eleven straight months. An event without precedence in China. How does one recover that lost confidence? Lowering interest rates and relaxing down payments requirement has so far not had the desired effect. Will the CPC allow the real estate market to continue to slowly deflate making housing more affordable to the masses? But then who takes the hit? the lien holder? the builder? the home owner? Or, all of the above? Is it even realistic to allow so many institutions and individuals to loose so much of their investment? The NPL market is one option but it exposes the bank and the debtor to losses. Considering over 70% of Chinese household investment is tied into real estate is this strategy realistic? The magnitude of the loss is proportional to the rate of deflation of the real estate market but someone will take a hit

 

[beijingwalker]

The only tangible real estate meltdown that average people can really feel was in 2008 and 2009, it was really bad, I can still remember it vividly even today, it was literally collapsing. now we don't feel a thing comparing to that time, but even in 2008, China still managed to get over it soon enough and started a new round of high growth afterwards.

 

[tower9]

1. China does have a declining population growth rate, but it will take decades for this problem to have a serious impact. We still have time. It is actually the only problem you mentioned correctly, and it is also the real problem we face.

2. Do you think China's production efficiency is declining? If the production efficiency drops, it will be directly reflected in GDP. In fact, due to the popularity of high-tech equipment such as robots, China's production efficiency is rising rapidly.

3. Our transformation from low-tech to high-tech is very smooth. Now we have crossed the "middle-income trap" and become a high-income country. Moreover, the crazy interception behavior of the United States just proves our success.

4. The bad debt rate of China's state-owned banks is only 1.5%, which is much better than that of western countries. I don't know why you think China's state-owned banks will have financial problems.

5. There is indeed Urban-Rural Inequality in China, which is also a universal problem in the world. However, with the smooth implementation of the "poverty alleviation plan", this situation has been greatly improved.

6. China's environmental pollution has been greatly improved. Only two of the top 50 cities with the highest pollution in the world come from China, and these two cities are not industrial cities. Their pollution comes from the desert. The problem now is that the United States and European Union countries are renouncing the Carbon neutralization goal. Only China still insists on improving the environment.

https://www.iqair.com/world-most-polluted-cities

Draft law shows Germany plans to revise key emissions target for energy sector

Germany's ruling coalition is to revise a key climate target to reach greenhouse gas emissions neutrality in the country's energy industry by 2035, a draft law seen by Reuters showed on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

This is accurate based on my understanding

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

 

[MH.Yang]

Thanks for your valuable input. But it isn't just the lockdown that has dampened confidence. For the longest time real estate was considered the safest bet for investments by the average Chinese absent a mature well governed stock market. But that confidence has been shaken recently with unfinished "rotten tail" buildings and shrinking demand. home prices continue to fall for eleven straight months. An event without precedence in China. How does one recover that lost confidence? Lowering interest rates and relaxing down payments requirement has so far not had the desired effect. Will the CPC allow the real estate market to continue to slowly deflate making housing more affordable to the masses? But then who takes the hit? the lien holder? the builder? the home owner? Or, all of the above? Is it even realistic to allow so many institutions and individuals to loose so much of their investment? The NPL market is one option but it exposes the bank and the debtor to losses. Considering over 70% of Chinese household investment is tied into real estate is this strategy realistic? The magnitude of the loss is proportional to the rate of deflation of the real estate market but someone will take a hit

China's central govt and local govts have different views on the real estate market.

The central govt advocates continuing to crack down on real estate developers and suppress housing prices. So as to release citizens' consumption capacity, greatly stimulate domestic demand, and find new high economic growth points through economic internal circulation.

Local govts believe that lowering house prices will lead to the shrinking of people's wealth, which is not conducive to social and economic stability. And it will also affect the local govt's fiscal revenue.

Now the central govt and local govts are in the process of negotiation and game. In China, the central govt is usually the winner. But the real estate industry is still under control. As long as the central govt is willing to compromise, the real estate industry can quickly resume prosperity.

But we know that the Chinese govt usually does not change its national policies. So I think the govt will continue to crack down on the real estate market. Many small real estate developers and those with high debt ratios will die in this storm. But their death will make state-owned real estate enterprises and high-quality real estate enterprises stronger.

 

[Beast]

Hey 'Beast', i know the censors prevent what you can see and not see within China so the only way you interact with outside world is forums like these.

That is fine since many of us want to understand what is going on in China (which is why we debate on this forum) vs. listen to the press blindly. So stop being a stooge and putting funny emojis and 'lols' on because you are frustrated that a fact that you find out here does not match up with what you are told from school on up. We are keen to debate/learn or debunk. Putting 'lols' makes you sound like an informed person vs. somebody coming here with facts.

I want China to be successful, but I am not going to take baseless facts or some assumptions that CHina is super human and its figured everything out. Thats what Xi tells you to stay under the lockdows by the millions and to relect him for rest of life, but pls don't make that super human mentality to this forum. And this is NOT me promoting some western narrative. I would call somebody out the same way at s**t if its baseless about somebody describing a western economy in superlatives.

Since China is great and independent and doesn't need anything, why would it need FAA certification? Your domestic traffic is large enough. Just like you don't get FDA certification for Chinese pharmas you sell in China, it makes no sense why you would do that for aviation targeted for China.

Fact is China doesn't have an equivalent of Honeywell for avionics (at least not civilian avionics) and no economically, safe engine at this time for commercial travel.

I am sure experts in other industries probably have similar examples. The world is an interdependent place. Nobody in any advanced economy can say they are completely independent and don't need the world for anything but somehow the Chinese on this forum seem to continue to parrot it and assume any counter argument is an insult to China.

And for the record, nobody knows what the future holds with economies. Nobody could have predicted 20 years ago what would have happened today and what would happen in the future.

Please don't avoid the obvious. Any plane need to fly in US need FAA approval. Even Airbus needs FAA if their plane wanto ferry passenger in US.

With US supplier interest ties in C919. I don't think we need a genius to tell u that they will try persuade FAA to approve C919 since they will be making money with every C919 sold.