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The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

This article really shows the almost near schizophrenic nature of the west when it comes to iran and the jcpoa.
The west knows that it has no credible alternatives to the jcpoa,indeed trumps attempt at "maximum pressure" was a literal disaster,and was ultimately responsible for getting the west into the situation of being between a nuclear iranian rock and a hard place that it now finds itself in.
Yet despite this the west it seems is still willing to risk even the last chance that it will likely ever have to salvage something,even if that something is just a return to an imperfect deal which will begin to start to expire within a few short years.
Reading this one almost gets the feeling that even tho the west knows that it has no other options,that there is no plan b waiting in the wings,no "better" deals to be had,yet despite this it still cannot bring itself to acknowledge that it made a huge blunder and that its only realistic option is to make the concessions necessary to salvage whatever is left.Indeed one gets the feeling that its looking for some excuse so that it wont have to,however even if this strategy may spare biden and the us political elites the political pain of having to make concessions to iran,it will do nothing to limit irans nuclear program,actually quite the opposite in fact.

Opinion: Biden won’t remove Iran’s Revolutionary Guard from terror list. He’s right.
By David Ignatius
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...st-organization-revolutinary-guard-iran-deal/

The Biden administration plans to reject an Iranian demand that the United States lift its designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization as a condition for renewing the 2015 nuclear agreement — putting completion of the deal in jeopardy.
A senior administration official told me that President Biden doesn’t intend to concede on the terrorist designation, even though this may be a dealbreaker: “The onus is on Iran as to whether we have a nuclear deal. The president will stick to core principles. The Iranians know our views.”
The official’s comments amplify a statement earlier this week by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Asked during an interview with NBC News whether the IRGC is a terrorist organization, Blinken answered, “So, they are.” He continued: “I’m not overly optimistic at the prospects of actually getting [the nuclear] agreement to conclusion.”

Iran’s demand that the United States remove the IRGC from its “foreign terrorist organization,” or FTO, list has emerged as the main obstacle to reviving the 2015 nuclear pact. European countries have urged the United States to find a compromise formula that will save the deal, whose basic provisions have been negotiated in Vienna over the past year.
The administration isn’t walking away from negotiations with Iran, and it’s possible some acceptable formula could be negotiated with the help of European allies that would satisfy Biden’s desire not to reward an organization that has killed thousands around the world, including hundreds of Americans.
But Biden apparently doesn’t want to budge — nor should he. This might largely be a symbolic issue, but the IRGC needs to earn its way off the list.

The president is said to view the IRGC question as separate from the nuclear talks, even though Iran insists they are related. Biden and other U.S. officials are adamant because they believe the IRGC’s activities, through its network of proxies, directly affect the safety of U.S. personnel and its partners in the region.
The latest example of suspected Iranian-backed activity was an artillery attack early Thursday on a base in eastern Syria known as Green Village and used by U.S. troops there. The two rounds injured four U.S. servicemembers, who the Pentagon said are being treated for minor wounds and possible traumatic brain injuries. The Pentagon has not said whether the United States will retaliate.
Appearing Thursday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reinforced the assessment of the IRGC. “In my personal opinion, I believe the IRGC Quds Force to be a terrorist organization, and I do not support them being de-listed,” Milley told the panel.

Proponents of removing the IRGC from the list argue that other sanctions against the group will remain, even if the FTO designation is withdrawn, and that it doesn’t make sense to describe as “terrorist” an organization so large that it touches many parts of Iran’s economy and government. Europeans have suggested a compromise in which Iran would pledge to de-escalate regional tensions and stop attacking Americans.
But the IRGC issue can’t just be a bargaining chip. If Iran is serious about curbing the violence and intimidation the IRGC has spread throughout the region, then it needs to say so clearly and emphatically — not as a side deal to a nuclear pact.
The issue of the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist group has been closely watched by Israel and Arab Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They see it as a test of the Biden administration’s credibility and commitment in the Middle East. The Trump State Department formally designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in 2019 despite arguments from some senior officials in the U.S. military that the step was unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. However, once the designation was imposed, congressional Republicans and Democrats alike have argued that it shouldn’t be removed without meaningful improvements in the IRGC’s behavior. Removing the designation and related sanctions would further strain relations with the Saudis and Emiratis, who have grumbled about the United States’ unreliability.

The deeper question is whether the impasse over the IRGC label will derail what had appeared to be a successful effort to reimpose terms of the 2015 nuclear deal in exchange for lifting U.S. economic sanctions against Iran. Administration officials concede that the draft deal is far from ideal; some of its provisions would expire soon, and it would leave Iran perilously close to having a “breakout” stockpile of enriched uranium sufficient for a nuclear weapon.
But the administration argues that Iran was able to advance its program, enriching uranium to the 60 percent level that approaches weapons grade, only because the Trump administration decided to withdraw from the deal in 2018 — effectively voiding its limits. President Donald Trump’s decision is viewed by many national security analysts, including some leading security officials in Israel, as a costly mistake.
The Israeli government views the revived agreement that has been patched together in Vienna as a bad deal, because some of its provisions will expire so quickly and because it could provide a pathway for Iran to eventually have nuclear weapons capability. But senior Israeli officials also recognize the danger of having no deal, which would allow the Iranians to race even faster toward bomb-making capability.

Some analysts fear that if Iran isn’t constrained by a new pact, it would increase enrichment to the weapons-grade 90 percent level. Officials said that Tehran had considered taking this step after Trump voided the deal but backed away after European countries warned Iran privately that such a move would trigger new sanctions.
At the heart of the IRGC issue is Iran’s destabilizing role in the region, through a network of proxies the IRGC oversees. The Yemen war is one example, and the administration has been encouraged by the cease-fire there announced last weekend, which will bring a 60-day truce between Saudi-backed government forces and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
Saudi Arabia facilitated the Yemen diplomacy by announcing a unilateral Ramadan truce, and U.S. officials credit Prince Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi deputy defense minister, for the de-escalation in Yemen. Iran didn’t oppose the truce. But Iranian-sponsored Houthi missile attacks remain a threat to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The war in Ukraine has been dominating the headlines, for good reason. But U.S. tensions with Iran may be about to ratchet upward if the IRGC issue leads to a breakdown in the nuclear talks and an escalation in Middle East tensions. To paraphrase a saying attributed to Soviet revolutionary Leon Trotsky: You may not be interested in the Middle East, but the Middle East is interested in you.
 
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its right usa is support them now , but their Founder ? I doubt you can say that for this cult


as usual only finger pointing , never show a single evidence for your claims .
 
the militia is part of Iraq army , if they did anything , its a coupe by Iraqi army not Iran and the important thing is

as always

the article provided no proof , just baseless finger pointing and the source of it is, the usual convenient unnamed security official .what a waste of time reading it
 
It does make one wonder if the europeans are now seriously considering trying to salvage the jcpoa without the participation of the us.It certainly couldnt have escaped their notice that the longer the us stalls on making the decision to return,how increasingly shaky the whole thing starts to look.
E.U. doesn't have independent foreign policy on this matter, especially during the Ukraine war.
 
It looks like the us,and their eurovassals,have been working behind the scenes to try and find some sort of face saving way out of the impasse that it finds itself in over the delisting of the irgc.
What do the other posters here think of the wests proposal to not target each other’s officials?

Pentagon opposed de-listing Iran Guards if no reciprocal Iranian concession
In U.S. inter-agency debate, 'those against the delisting were DoD and, ultimately, the White House,' senior U.S. official said. 'Israel was not a key factor.'

https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/pentagon-opposed-de-listing-iran
In recent U.S. inter-agency debate, the U.S. Department of Defense came out against removing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from a State Department terror black list if Iran would not agree to a reciprocal non-nuclear concession, such as commit to not target each other’s officials, a senior U.S. official told me.

The issue is believed to be one of the last sticking points to restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear pact, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which then US President Trump quit in 2018. The Trump administration subsequently added the IRGC to the State Department list of foreign terrorist organizations (FTO) in 2019.

What President Biden committed to doing was a “compliance for compliance deal,” in which the United States would suspend nuclear-related sanctions on Iran if Iran returned to full compliance with the JCPOA, a senior US official told me.

“The Iranians wanted us to remove the IRGC FTO,” the senior U.S. official continued. “And we gave them lots of options for non-nuclear concessions and commitments they could make in return,” the U.S. official said. The Iranians apparently said no.

Iran reportedly has active threats against former American officials in retaliation for the U.S. killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2000.

Iran apparently rejected various proposals, including that it commit not to target each other’s officials in exchange for removing the IRGC FTO listing, lift Iranian sanctions on U.S. Central Command, or agree to follow-on talks on regional issues.

“The ball is in their court,” the US official said. “They have an option to return on a compliance-for-compliance basis.”

“The Defense Department, in particular, was not keen, in the absence of Iran giving a non-nuclear concession, to delist the IRGC,” the U.S. official said. “That is where the president landed.”

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told a Senate panel earlier this month that he personally opposed the delisting of the IRGC Qods (or Quds) force, an expeditionary component of the IRGC.

“In my personal opinion, I believe the IRGC-Quds Force to be a terrorist organization and I do not support them being delisted from the foreign terrorist organization
  • ,” Gen. Milley told the Senate Armed Services Committee in response to a question about the matter on April 7, 2022.

    (The Bush administration put the IRGC Qods force on a separate black list, the Treasury Department’s list of specially designated global terrorists (SDGT), in 2007. The Trump administration put the IRGC on the SDGT list in 2017.)

    Israel’s vociferous opposition to the delisting of the IRGC from the State Department FTO list was not really a key factor in the US inter-agency debate or decision-making, the U.S. official said.

    “Those against [the delisting] were DoD and, ultimately, the White House,” the official said. “Israel was not a key factor.”

    Israel has been pressing for the White House to publicly reject Iran’s IRGC delisting request, I reported last week.

    Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett raised the issue in a phone call with President Biden on Sunday (April 24), according to the Israeli readout of the call, though the White House readout did not explicitly mention it.

    "I am sure that President Biden, who is a true friend of Israel and cares about its security, will not allow the IRGC to be removed from the list of terrorist organizations,” Bennett said in an Israeli readout of the call. “Israel has clarified its position on the issue: The IRGC is the largest terrorist organization in the world."

    Israeli and American national security teams led by Israel National Security Advisor Dr. Eyal Hulata and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are meeting at the White House today and tomorrow (April 25-26).

    Unclear how to get past the impasse

    By mid-March, after a year of talks, European Union-coordinated talks in Vienna had basically reached a draft deal on restoring the nuclear deal, save for a few non-nuclear related issues, including this one.

    EU coordinator Enrique Mora subsequently traveled to Iran and then Washington to try to advance a solution, but the process seems stuck.

    One factor that may be contributing to the sense the Iranians have dug in on this issue is they might have previously understood from interlocutors at the talks that the FTO issue was on the table.

    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, in a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Friday (April 23), reportedly said the long break in the Vienna talks was not constructive and called for fresh talks between Mora and Iran’s negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani, Iranian media reported.

    “The Biden administration should have the audacity to rectify the White House’s past mistakes,” Amir-Abdollahian reportedly told Borrell in the call, according to Iranian Press TV.

    An Iranian official, speaking not for attribution, did not suggest Iran had any ideas for moving past the impasse.

    “Messages are going back and forth through the EU,” the Iranian official told me April 21. “However, if the US insists on its position, things will be complicated. And I don’t know how we can untie the knot.”

    **
 
It looks like the us,and their eurovassals,have been working behind the scenes to try and find some sort of face saving way out of the impasse that it finds itself in over the delisting of the irgc.
What do the other posters here think of the wests proposal to not target each other’s officials?

Pentagon opposed de-listing Iran Guards if no reciprocal Iranian concession
In U.S. inter-agency debate, 'those against the delisting were DoD and, ultimately, the White House,' senior U.S. official said. 'Israel was not a key factor.'

https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/pentagon-opposed-de-listing-iran
In recent U.S. inter-agency debate, the U.S. Department of Defense came out against removing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from a State Department terror black list if Iran would not agree to a reciprocal non-nuclear concession, such as commit to not target each other’s officials, a senior U.S. official told me.

The issue is believed to be one of the last sticking points to restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear pact, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which then US President Trump quit in 2018. The Trump administration subsequently added the IRGC to the State Department list of foreign terrorist organizations (FTO) in 2019.

What President Biden committed to doing was a “compliance for compliance deal,” in which the United States would suspend nuclear-related sanctions on Iran if Iran returned to full compliance with the JCPOA, a senior US official told me.

“The Iranians wanted us to remove the IRGC FTO,” the senior U.S. official continued. “And we gave them lots of options for non-nuclear concessions and commitments they could make in return,” the U.S. official said. The Iranians apparently said no.

Iran reportedly has active threats against former American officials in retaliation for the U.S. killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2000.

Iran apparently rejected various proposals, including that it commit not to target each other’s officials in exchange for removing the IRGC FTO listing, lift Iranian sanctions on U.S. Central Command, or agree to follow-on talks on regional issues.

“The ball is in their court,” the US official said. “They have an option to return on a compliance-for-compliance basis.”

“The Defense Department, in particular, was not keen, in the absence of Iran giving a non-nuclear concession, to delist the IRGC,” the U.S. official said. “That is where the president landed.”

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told a Senate panel earlier this month that he personally opposed the delisting of the IRGC Qods (or Quds) force, an expeditionary component of the IRGC.

“In my personal opinion, I believe the IRGC-Quds Force to be a terrorist organization and I do not support them being delisted from the foreign terrorist organization
  • ,” Gen. Milley told the Senate Armed Services Committee in response to a question about the matter on April 7, 2022.

    (The Bush administration put the IRGC Qods force on a separate black list, the Treasury Department’s list of specially designated global terrorists (SDGT), in 2007. The Trump administration put the IRGC on the SDGT list in 2017.)

    Israel’s vociferous opposition to the delisting of the IRGC from the State Department FTO list was not really a key factor in the US inter-agency debate or decision-making, the U.S. official said.

    “Those against [the delisting] were DoD and, ultimately, the White House,” the official said. “Israel was not a key factor.”

    Israel has been pressing for the White House to publicly reject Iran’s IRGC delisting request, I reported last week.

    Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett raised the issue in a phone call with President Biden on Sunday (April 24), according to the Israeli readout of the call, though the White House readout did not explicitly mention it.

    "I am sure that President Biden, who is a true friend of Israel and cares about its security, will not allow the IRGC to be removed from the list of terrorist organizations,” Bennett said in an Israeli readout of the call. “Israel has clarified its position on the issue: The IRGC is the largest terrorist organization in the world."

    Israeli and American national security teams led by Israel National Security Advisor Dr. Eyal Hulata and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are meeting at the White House today and tomorrow (April 25-26).

    Unclear how to get past the impasse

    By mid-March, after a year of talks, European Union-coordinated talks in Vienna had basically reached a draft deal on restoring the nuclear deal, save for a few non-nuclear related issues, including this one.

    EU coordinator Enrique Mora subsequently traveled to Iran and then Washington to try to advance a solution, but the process seems stuck.

    One factor that may be contributing to the sense the Iranians have dug in on this issue is they might have previously understood from interlocutors at the talks that the FTO issue was on the table.

    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, in a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Friday (April 23), reportedly said the long break in the Vienna talks was not constructive and called for fresh talks between Mora and Iran’s negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani, Iranian media reported.

    “The Biden administration should have the audacity to rectify the White House’s past mistakes,” Amir-Abdollahian reportedly told Borrell in the call, according to Iranian Press TV.

    An Iranian official, speaking not for attribution, did not suggest Iran had any ideas for moving past the impasse.

    “Messages are going back and forth through the EU,” the Iranian official told me April 21. “However, if the US insists on its position, things will be complicated. And I don’t know how we can untie the knot.”

    **
We can for showing our good intention offer them we are willing to delist centcom from the list of terrorists organization .
 
Heres a bit of an eye-opener,basically a rather desperate plea from the eurovassals to try and save the deal,tho I do have to sneer at their laughable claim to "have worked hard to keep the deal alive following the 2018 US withdrawal",surprisingly tho on the other hand they pull no punches about laying the blame for the current situation entirely on the trump regime.

Open letter to the US and Iranian leaderships on the Iran nuclear deal
 
At this point in the game,It basically looks as tho the eurovassals have now resorted to begging iran not to abandon the deal,as this is essentially all thats really left to them at this point politically,tho I do think that they would`ve been better served,imho,begging the us instead to make the needed concession,perhaps even going so far as to point out to biden,that his irrational fear of looking soft on iran may ultimately doom the west to having to live under the threat of a future iranian nuclear deterrent.
At this point,baring a miracle,I think that the deal is effectively dead,and I do not think that there will be any future ones.

Europe to Make Fresh Push to Revive Iran Nuclear Deal


Talks have hit a deadlock over Iran’s demand that Washington lift terror designation on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards​


Enrique Mora, the European Union coordinator of the negotiations, will try to persuade Iran to sign off on a final text of the agreement without including the lifting of a terror designation.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-to-make-fresh-push-to-revive-iran-nuclear-deal-by-offering-to-send-top-negotiator-back-to-tehran-11651419295

By Laurence Norman
May 1, 2022 11:34 am ET

European officials are preparing to make a fresh push to salvage a nuclear deal with Iran, offering to send a top European Union negotiator to Tehran in an effort to break a stalemate in talks, according to Western diplomats.

Enrique Mora, the European Union coordinator of the negotiations, has told Iranian counterparts he is ready to return to Tehran to open a pathway through the deadlock, the people said. So far, Iran hasn’t responded with an invitation, the people added.

The negotiations, which started in Vienna in April 2021, are aimed at agreeing to steps the U.S. and Iran must take to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal signed under President Obama, which lifted most international sanctions on Iran in exchange for tight but temporary limits on Iran’s nuclear activities.

President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal, arguing it wouldn’t stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and reimposed sweeping sanctions on Iran in 2018. In 2019, Iran started a major expansion in its nuclear program.

Talks in Vienna, which also involve Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, have been on a protracted pause since March 11. At that point, Western and Iranian officials said the text of the nuclear deal was virtually complete.

However, the deal has run into trouble in recent weeks over Iranian demands that the U.S. lift its designation of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, or IRGC, as a terrorist organization. There is bipartisan opposition in Washington and anger among the U.S.’s traditional Middle Eastern allies at the prospect of the designation being removed.

With Iran refusing to engage in direct negotiations with Washington until sanctions are lifted, European officials have been trying to keep the talks alive, even as Western capitals have turned their focus to the conflict in Ukraine. Mr. Mora visited Tehran in late March to try to resolve the issue over the foreign terrorist designation but returned empty-handed.

U.S. officials have said that President Biden won’t relax or eliminate the conditions for lifting the terror designation.

The Western diplomats say they want to put the onus back on Iran, making it clear the talks could end unless Iran offers a way through the standoff. The opening for the talks came during an April 23 call between Iran’s foreign minister and his EU counterpart. Mr. Mora will try to persuade Iran to sign off on a final text of the agreement without the foreign terrorist designation and leave that issue to a future point, diplomats say.

The diplomats say that if Iran comes back with a demand for a U.S. concession on another issue, Washington will consider that. However, the diplomats also say there can be no broad renegotiation of the deal.

The U.S. has accused the IRGC of killing hundreds of Americans, working on Iran’s ballistic and nuclear programs and being involved in human-rights violations. Its Quds Force has arranged weapons and support for proxy forces throughout the region.

Iran has so far dismissed a U.S. offer that the foreign terrorist designation of the IRGC could be lifted if Tehran agrees to not attack Americans in the region or seek to assassinate current and former U.S. officials. U.S. officials say that even if the designation is lifted, the group would still face several other U.S. sanctions.

“The only way I could see it being lifted is if Iran takes steps necessary to justify the lifting of that designation,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week in the Senate. “It knows what it would have to do.”

Iranian officials have said they won’t drop their pledge to take revenge on those involved in the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020. The IRGC has continued to mount direct and indirect attacks through Tehran-backed militias on U.S. forces and its regional allies.

Mr. Blinken said last week Washington still believes reviving the nuclear deal is in the interests of the U.S.

Iran says its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.

Hopes of a deal remain slim. With Washington and Tehran doubling down on their demands over the IRGC, one former U.S. official who has worked on the Iranian nuclear issue said the current stalemate could continue for months.

“A long term impasse is certainly possible,” said the official. “Neither side wants to declare the talks dead.”
 
Base on my understanding JCPoA is not dead yet and new administration would not announce it dead but it would engage in talks to have a deal but a better deal otherwise there was no need to postpone it to new administration ... that differs us from Yankees "We wouldn't hit under table once we agree to it" .... & as long as the US compliance with its commitments is a bitter joke I bet the talks are gonna take long time and probably would get nowhere ... It's been almost 3 years that EU 11 promises are about to be implemented, and all 3 American presidents have violated the deal without exception .. no guarantee is provided and even if such a thing would be available then what guarantees their guarantee? and yet they wanna take the current deal as hostage to make Iran to negotiate on other issues which means a dead-end like fatty 12 conditions ...

The US would not let go the sanctions and a big part of that is our fault ...
is it dead now? as far as I know we are getting nowhere ...
 
Not officially dead until pronounced dead by democrats of both countries.


Not officially dead until pronounced dead by democrats of both countries.


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