The Drums of War? Pentagon Provokes New Crisis With China

[topjumper]

Mad and stupid. You would hand that stupid midget Kim Jong Il the power to decide whether China would go to war. PRC strategy is to preserve the status quo.

No no no, of course we can't give him those missiles, the Kim family is a liability to everybody. China should try to do what the US is doing in South Korea -- set up a military base and deploy troops and missiles there, as harsh as it sounds the Korea peninsular is a proxy between US and China, and the US has an upper hand for now.

Further, if China can influence/persuade NK to follow its development model and open up for trade at least between its friendly countries like China and Russia, the livelihood of its people will drastically improve and the region become more stable, it'll better act as a buffer zone between China and US troops stationed in SK.

China should fully play up the threat of this new US/SK development to NK so it can station its troops there, it'd be the best outcome for China: not only this exercise would not threaten the existence of NK, it would also strengthen China's presence in the peninsular and make it even harder for US to enter the yellow sea in the future. The US would truly kick itself if it pushes NK too far into the hands of the chinese.

 

[Thomas]

No no no, of course we can't give him those missiles, the Kim family is a liability to everybody. China should try to do what the US is doing in South Korea -- set up a military base and deploy troops and missiles there, as harsh as it sounds the Korea peninsular is a proxy between US and China, and the US has an upper hand for now.

Further, if China can influence/persuade NK to follow its development model and open up for trade at least between its friendly countries like China and Russia, the livelihood of its people will drastically improve and the region become more stable, it'll better act as a buffer zone between China and US troops stationed in SK.

China should fully play up the threat of this new US/SK development to NK so it can station its troops there, it'd be the best outcome for China: not only this exercise would not threaten the existence of NK, it would also strengthen China's presence in the peninsular and make it even harder for US to enter the yellow sea in the future. The US would truly kick itself if it pushes NK too far into the hands of the chinese.

I find it amusing you believe that U.S. has the upper hand with a token force of around 28,500 troops there. Make no mistake the RoK forces are the ones with the upper hand. The U.S. simply provides backup.

And the best solution is not to militarize the peninsula even more but to bring about a permanent peace. It is something that should have happened long ago. But has not becuase the North refuses to bring about a permanent end to the war.

 

[topjumper]

I find it amusing you believe that U.S. has the upper hand with a token force of around 28,500 troops there. Make no mistake the RoK forces are the ones with the upper hand. The U.S. simply provides backup.

And the best solution is not to militarize the peninsula even more but to bring about a permanent peace. It is something that should have happened long ago. But has not becuase the North refuses to bring about a permanent end to the war.

I partially agree with your view in that the best solution is not to militarise the peninsula even further.

I still think the US has an upper hand in the influence of korean peninsula compared to China: the SK allows US to have a military base and is cooperative with the US on many fronts; China in comparison does not have de facto influence on NK but it's nevertheless forced to offer protection to counter the US presence.

Btw it was the South Korean president Syngman Rhee who refused to sign the armistice with the North after the cease fire of korean war, but of course in practice since then the NK government has done very little to promote peace with its south counterpart. The Kim family dynasty is a real pain in the neck not just for the US but also for the Chinese, it will fail sooner or later if it carries on like this, it would be a nightmare for China if the new NK turns to the US just like the South did, although the US might just help the Chinese to gain more influence in NK if it views its existence is under real threat and turns to China for protection (I don't mean just signing some friendly treaties, it's all pain no gain for China, but more along the lines of a military base) and gradually adapts China's development model further down the line. In practice this maybe the best solution to stabilise the Korean peninsula given that the ideal solution (both US and China withdraw their influences) is unlikely to happen.

 

[chauism]

I partially agree with your view in that the best solution is not to militarise the peninsula even further.

I still think the US has an upper hand in the influence of korean peninsula compared to China: the SK allows US to have a military base and is cooperative with the US on many fronts; China in comparison does not have de facto influence on NK but it's nevertheless forced to offer protection to counter the US presence.

Btw it was the South Korean president Syngman Rhee who refused to sign the armistice treaty with the North after the cease fire of korean war, but of course in practice since then the NK government has done very little to promote peace with its south counterpart. The Kim family dynasty is a real pain in the neck not just for the US but also for the Chinese, it will fail sooner or later if it carries on like this, it would be a nightmare for China if the new NK turns to the US just like the South did, although the US might just help the Chinese to gain more influence in NK if it views its existence is under real threat and turns to China for protection and gradually adapts China's development model further down the line.

It doesn't really matter whether the US, ROK or DPRK has the upper hand in a military conflict. What matters to ROK is that its capital Seoul and with its 25 million residence which is half of ROK's total population is just 40km away from DMZ. It place it right under the range of DPRK's artillery and MRLS's barrage if they are deployed alone the DMZ. So if there is any conflict to break out, Seoul will utterly destroyed under fire reigning down from the sky in the first place.

 

[gambit]

It doesn't really matter whether the US, ROK or DPRK has the upper hand in a military conflict. What matters to ROK is that its capital Seoul and with its 25 million residence which is half of ROK's total population is just 40km away from DMZ. It place it right under the range of DPRK's artillery and MRLS's barrage if they are deployed alone the DMZ. So if there is any conflict to break out, Seoul will utterly destroyed under fire reigning down from the sky in the first place.

Assuming this is true, this does not mean SKR will lose the war. Unless China steps in, NKR will lose.

 

[chauism]

Assuming this is true, this does not mean SKR will lose the war. Unless China steps in, NKR will lose.

Of course it doesn't mean ROK will lose, but it definitely is not something ROK would like to happen either. It is too much a high price to pay for victory. The point is that the government of ROK as well as China's are not really interested in seeing any of conflict to break out in Korea peninsula. Keeping the status quo is what makes everybody happy.

 

[CardSharp]

I think everyone is under-estimating the amount of kinship the SK feels for their backward northern brethren.

Think of it this way. You have a crazy psychopathic big brother in the attic, you’re terrified of him and will occasionally throw a bucket of fishheads up there to keep him quiet but when the cops show up you will still fight tooth and nail to protect your brother. The Cop here is America and the crazy brother, DPRK.

 

[topjumper]

Of course it doesn't mean ROK will lose, but it definitely is not something ROK would like to happen either. It is too much a high price to pay for victory. The point is that the government of ROK as well as China's are not really interested in seeing any of conflict to break out in Korea peninsula. Keeping the status quo is what makes everybody happy.

The problem is this status quo is getting harder to maintain given Kim the II is going to die any time soon, all of Kim's heirs are problematic and it's not in the interests of NK (and Beijing) to have a Kim the III for the sake of its people and its future; having a military figure taking over wouldn't do either, more likely than not it will further aggravate the current north/south stand off and drag China in with it. Academics in China have long suggested persuading NK to adopt a more China like model but the Kim family is doing whatever it can to cling onto power, it's truly becoming a pain.

 

[chauism]

The problem is this status quo is getting harder to maintain given Kim the II is going to die any time soon, all of Kim's heirs are problematic and it's not in the interests of NK (and Beijing) to have a Kim the III for the sake of its people and its future; having a military figure taking over wouldn't do either, more likely than not it will further aggravate the current north/south stand off and drag China in with it. Academics in China have long suggested persuading NK to adopt a more China like model but the Kim family is doing whatever it can to cling onto power, it's truly becoming a pain.

I know, DPRK is a pain in the @ss for China as much as it is for everyone else. However don't think for a second that China is able to influence anything politically in DPRK as US could with ROK. I think any pro China faction in its leadership had already been purged by Kim Jung Il for his future successor. Also don't cling on the idea that North Korean has a favourable view of the Chinese government or its people. To them we are the sluts that sleep with many of their sworn enemies.

 

[topjumper]

I know, DPRK is a pain in the @ss for China as much as it is for everyone else. However don't think for a second that China is able to influence anything politically in DPRK as US could with ROK. I think any pro China faction in its leadership had already been purged by Kim Jung Il for his future successor. Also don't cling on the idea that North Korean has a favourable view of the Chinese government or its people. To them we are the sluts that sleep with many of their sworn enemies.

Totally agree there, it's a pain in the back for us. Talking about a psycho brother that you can't abandon, China is stuck in a similar situation. However that doesn't mean China can afford to ignore it and hope for the best (i.e. more status quo for the next generation(s)), it won't be a status quo if NK has a leadership crisis that either leads to a military coup in the case of a weak Kim III (or IV, V etc), or a militant leadership takes over. If China can play the US card properly and first establish a military presence there (especially with a weaker Kim III), coupled with economic sweeteners if NK does play ball, it'll have better hope of persuading it to follow China's development steps and build a more prosper NK.

 

[Thomas]

I partially agree with your view in that the best solution is not to militarise the peninsula even further.

I still think the US has an upper hand in the influence of korean peninsula compared to China: the SK allows US to have a military base and is cooperative with the US on many fronts; China in comparison does not have de facto influence on NK but it's nevertheless forced to offer protection to counter the US presence.

Btw it was the South Korean president Syngman Rhee who refused to sign the armistice with the North after the cease fire of korean war, but of course in practice since then the NK government has done very little to promote peace with its south counterpart. The Kim family dynasty is a real pain in the neck not just for the US but also for the Chinese, it will fail sooner or later if it carries on like this, it would be a nightmare for China if the new NK turns to the US just like the South did, although the US might just help the Chinese to gain more influence in NK if it views its existence is under real threat and turns to China for protection (I don't mean just signing some friendly treaties, it's all pain no gain for China, but more along the lines of a military base) and gradually adapts China's development model further down the line. In practice this maybe the best solution to stabilise the Korean peninsula given that the ideal solution (both US and China withdraw their influences) is unlikely to happen.

Syngman Rhee has been out of power for 45 years. South Korea since then has expressed it's desire for peace and reconciliation. The North Korea however has used this to milk the south and the west for what ever it can while maintaining the status quo.

 

[oceanx]

Totally agree there, it's a pain in the back for us. Talking about a psycho brother that you can't abandon, China is stuck in a similar situation. However that doesn't mean China can afford to ignore it and hope for the best (i.e. more status quo for the next generation(s)), it won't be a status quo if NK has a leadership crisis that either leads to a military coup in the case of a weak Kim III (or IV, V etc), or a militant leadership takes over. If China can play the US card properly and first establish a military presence there (especially with a weaker Kim III), coupled with economic sweeteners if NK does play ball, it'll have better hope of persuading it to follow China's development steps and build a more prosper NK.

A military coup may be the only practical way out for the North Koreans, just as a military coup was the fastest way out for the PRC at the end of The Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution and twenty years of shinanagans preceding it ...

I am certainly not "endorsing" the military plotting "civilian" government's downfall anywhere.

But it's plain to all that the military is the last institution a country can depend on when all other institutions fail. That unfortunately applies to any country, North Korea and the United States included.

Like all institutions it can be the curse or "savior" for a state.

Junker officers tried to intervene in WWII Germany and regrettably were unsuccessful. In Japan junior officers intervened repeadedly and regrettably were successful.

 

[chauism]

DPRK vs ROK

Taiwan

 

[CardSharp]

DPRK vs ROK

Taiwan

Those are cute but you had to right click and open in new tab to see them. For the Taiwan one, I'm assuming China is the english bulldog?

I don't think neither are entirely true but I'm expecting too much from a cartoon.

 

[topjumper]

Any way, the point I was trying to make is that China should seize this US/SK threat as a good opportunity to put a firm front foot in NK. It'll be a master stroke if the chinese politicians can pull it off and the strategic and economic benefits will be huge.