The Decline of the AMERICAN EMPIRE

[VCheng]

..................

there is nothing the US can do to mitigate the effects of peak oil.

Are you sure about that?

Excerpt from: Fischer

U.S. Air Force certification

Syntroleum, a publicly traded US company has produced over 400,000 US gallons (1,500 m3) of diesel and jet fuel from the Fischer–Tropsch process using natural gas and coal at its demonstration plant near Tulsa, Oklahoma. Syntroleum is working to commercialize its licensed Fischer-Tropsch technology via coal-to-liquid plants in the US, China, and Germany, as well as gas-to-liquid plants internationally. Using natural gas as a feedstock, the ultra-clean, low sulfur fuel has been tested extensively by the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Transportation. Most recently, Syntroleum has been working with the U.S. Air Force to develop a synthetic jet fuel blend that will help the Air Force to reduce its dependence on imported petroleum. The Air Force, which is the U.S. military's largest user of fuel, began exploring alternative fuel sources in 1999. On December 15, 2006, a B-52 took off from Edwards AFB, California for the first time powered solely by a 50–50 blend of JP-8 and Syntroleum's FT fuel. The seven-hour flight test was considered a success. The goal of the flight test program is to qualify the fuel blend for fleet use on the service's B-52s, and then flight test and qualification on other aircraft. The test program concluded in 2007. This program is part of the Department of Defense Assured Fuel Initiative, an effort to develop secure domestic sources for the military energy needs. The Pentagon hopes to reduce its use of crude oil from foreign producers and obtain about half of its aviation fuel from alternative sources by 2016.[22] With the B-52 now approved to use the FT blend, the C-17 Globemaster III, the B-1B, and eventually every airframe in its inventory to use the fuel by 2011.[22][23]

Carbon dioxide reuse

In 2009, chemists working for the U.S. Navy investigated Fischer-Tropsch for generating fuels, obtaining hydrogen by electrolysis of seawater. When it was combined with the dissolved carbon dioxide using a cobalt-based catalyst, the reaction produced mostly methane gas. However, use of an iron-based catalyst allowed reducing the methane produced to 30 per cent with the rest being predominantly short-chain hydrocarbons. Further refining of the hydrocarbons produced by means of solid acid catalysts such as zeolites can potentially lead to the production of kerosene-based jet fuel.[24]

The abundance of CO2 makes seawater an attractive alternative fuel source. Scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory stated that, "although the gas forms only a small proportion of air – around 0.04 per cent – ocean water contains about 140 times that concentration".[24] Robert Dorner presented the findings of his work to the American Chemical Society on 16 August 2009, in Washington DC.[25] Of course, such a method requires an energy source – since CO2 is a major product of combustion, converting it back into combustible material is a highly endothermic (energy-absorbing) process. In practice this would probably come from nuclear power, which is in abundant supply aboard nuclear powered ships.

Trust me, USA will be ready to meet its needs.

 

[lepziboy]

woah USA suffered soo much under obama

 

[below_freezing]

Are you sure about that?

Excerpt from: Fischer



Trust me, USA will be ready to meet its needs.

Tiny Germany couldn't even scale up to 10% of domestic needs with fischer-topsch, there's no way the US could replace all liquid fuels with other fossil fuels.

In addition, by 2030 the aquifer beneath the Great Plains would have run dry. That's assuming no instability before 2030, hard when 2 trillion dollars get looted from the Pentagon.

 

[VCheng]

Tiny Germany couldn't even scale up to 10% of domestic needs with fischer-topsch, there's no way the US could replace all liquid fuels with other fossil fuels.

In addition, by 2030 the aquifer beneath the Great Plains would have run dry. That's assuming no instability before 2030, hard when 2 trillion dollars get looted from the Pentagon.

Like I said, please lay off the movies.

Shale gas and oil reserves within USA are still untouched, as are nuclear fuels, plus other resources. I am not even counting underocean methane hydrates.

For fresh water, please look up the reserves in just the Great Lakes, which are amply renewable.

I have no doubt USA is better placed than just about any country on Earth for the future, taken as a whole.

 

[below_freezing]

Like I said, please lay off the movies.

Shale gas and oil reserves within USA are still untouched, as are nuclear fuels, plus other resources. I am not even counting underocean methane hydrates.

For fresh water, please look up the reserves in just the Great Lakes, which are amply renewable.

I have no doubt USA is better placed than just about any country on Earth for the future, taken as a whole.

easy oil reserves in the US have been totally exhausted. The ratio of energy gained to energy invested in shale oil is 3:1, far inferior to the 15:1 of Saudi crude and 20:1 for domestic crude.

US oil reserve discoveries peaked in 1930, production peaked in 1975.

Great Lakes is very far from the Great Plains and it is impossible to transport that water, since the Great Plains is higher in elevation than the Great Lakes.

 

[gambit]

easy oil reserves in the US have been totally exhausted. The ratio of energy gained to energy invested in shale oil is 3:1, far inferior to the 15:1 of Saudi crude and 20:1 for domestic crude.

US oil reserve discoveries peaked in 1930, production peaked in 1975.

Great Lakes is very far from the Great Plains and it is impossible to transport that water, since the Great Plains is higher in elevation than the Great Lakes.

China will starve and descends into food shortage riots before the US run out of oil...

Chinese Geography: Readings and Maps | Asia for Educators | Columbia University

However, while approximately 40% of the U.S. land can be cultivated, only 11% of China's land is arable. Much of the arable land in the United States, of course, is actually not used for farming but instead is used for pasture or has been developed for other uses.

 

[nalandapride]

I agree with the main thrust of your argument. However in due course I think there may be a break up.

eg: California Independence and the Separation of States

 

[below_freezing]

China will starve and descends into food shortage riots before the US run out of oil...

Chinese Geography: Readings and Maps | Asia for Educators | Columbia University

China has one of the highest crop yields in the world, and most of it is harvested with low energy requiring physical labor, rather than using oil and gas to power mechanized farming. Mechanized farming does not increase yields, fertilizer and pesticide does; it only saves labor, which is not necessary in China.

 

[gambit]

China has one of the highest crop yields in the world, and most of it is harvested with low energy requiring physical labor, rather than using oil and gas to power mechanized farming. Mechanized farming does not increase yields, fertilizer and pesticide does; it only saves labor, which is not necessary in China.

If mechanized farming does not increase yield, then China should count her fortunes that YOU are not a farmer.

AGS: Agricultural mechanization

Mechanization of farming has allowed an increase to the area that can be planted and has contributed towards increased yields, mainly due to the precision with which the crop husbandry tasks can be accomplished. In fact, most farmers in developing countries experience a greater annual expenditure on farm power inputs than on fertilizer, seeds or agrochemicals.

If the Chinese government is paying you to fight the verbal combats for China -- refund your pay. You failed on the semicon manufacturing issues. You failed on military affairs. You failed on finance. And now you failed on agriculture.

Anyway...

The land area differences between geographical China and geographical US is statistically insignificant: Roughly 3.7 mil sq/miles for each. Yet the US has four times arable land: 40% to 10%. In any country, rivers are the arteries of vital natural nutrients for the people and the land. Silting is good but flooding is disastrous. Infrequent and untimely flooding are tolerable, but not actually anticipatory as how China have historically experienced as exampled with the 1998 flood in Jiangxi. Flooding destroys settlements, take human lives, and actually washes away those vital natural nutrients that was deposited by low level silting processes. Anticipatory flooding discourages settlements and that parcel of land do not contribute to the country's breadbasket but is actually a burden since the people must defend the land regardless.

For the US, that 40% arable land is possible because of the lower quantities and concentrations of mountainous regions. For China, it is the opposite where topographical China is full of mountains and high deserts with their agriculturally worthless plateaus and this is well known the world over...

Economic Importance of Plateaus

Plateaus are not very useful from the point of view of agriculture. The hard rocks on plateaus cannot form fertile soil but agricultural activities are promoted where lava soils have developed. Lava soil in developed form is found on the terraced slopes of Indonesia. This soil promotes agriculture. It is difficult to dig wells and canals in plateaus. This hampers irrigation.

Hence, China has 4x less arable land than the US.

For the US, the major rivers runs North-South and they spread out to over most of the continent. For China, the major rivers runs East-West and into the mountainous territories where agriculture is already a hardship. So even if the US experiences severe flooding to the scale of China's, the American people will still come out ahead in terms of agricultural output with 4x greater arable land.

When it comes to climate, jet streams are preferable over monsoon winds. Continental US climate is governed by the jet streams that carries moisture laden air that produces rain and storms across the entire continent. Continental China climate is cyclically beaten by annual monsoon winds that produces gross disparity between southern China (75 inches) and Mongolia (5 inches) in rainfall.

Chinese Cultural Studies: China Fact Summary

Also in western China, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang lie beyond the Great Wall and are known for their dryness. They get less than 12 inches (300 millimeters) of precipitation and in some areas less than one inch (25 millimeters). Herding is the primary economic activity, though oasis agriculture is carried on where water is available. Crops include grain, cotton, sugar beets, and exotic fruits and melons.

In northern China the Loess Plateau lies southeast of the Great Wall and north of the Qin Ling Mountains. The loess that covers most of the area has eroded into badlands in places. This region is dry and has long, cold winters. Drought-tolerant crops such as millet and gaoliang are common. Wheat, corn, and cotton are also planted extensively, especially where irrigation water is available.

The North China Plain lies south of the Great Wall and extends from the coast to the mountains and hills to the west and south. The floodplains of the Huang He and the Huai He are the main features. Several problems exist here. There is not enough rainfall, the winters are cold and long, and some of the soils are salty because of poor drainage. The main crops are wheat, barley, cotton, corn, gaoliang, millet, and peanuts.

By the Great Wall region, the growing season is less than 150 days on an already tough land for agriculture. Is there any wonder why 75% of Chinese population live on 15-20% of geographical China while the rest struggles by wherever they are at? For the cities, about 160 Chinese cities have population count of more than 1 million people while the US has at best 9-10 cities with that level of population count.

Top 50 Cities in the U.S. by Population and Rank — Infoplease.com

List of cities in the People's Republic of China by population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are over 160 cities in China with population over one million.

Militarily speaking, the US can starve those large population centers by destroying China's uneven distribution of the most vital transportation networks: Roads and rail.

For the waters, the US enjoys near exclusivity of both major oceans while China must contends one major oceanic body with several powers, none of them friendly to China. Militarily speaking, the US and allies can restrict if not outright deny China access to this body as well. Further depriving an aggressive China of access to another avenue of food.

 

[below_freezing]

LMAO you're talking to me about agriculture.

Mechanization increases the total land area that can be farmed, not the kg of yield per unit land. In the US, the limiting factor of agriculture is the land that can be placed under cultivation with avaliable labor, whereas in China, the amount of land under cultivation will always have farmers to farm it.

China has very high yields per unit area for staple crops, as shown here:

Rice - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

20x rice production as the US.

International wheat production statistics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2x wheat production as the US.

The crops we are forced to import include corn, which is animal feed, and soy, which is due to WTO treaties allowing cheap American soy to rush in. Otherwise, China is completely self sufficient.

The key difference is that US agriculture depends on oil, which is imported, while Chinese agriculture depends on physical labor, which is not. Because of the lower yield per unit area of farmland in the US, more land has to be farmed to keep up the US's total production, and without petrol there's no way that all that land can be farmed with physical labor and still keep most Americans in urban areas, while in China, since the land is already heavily settled, there's no question of labor shortages.

In addition, US agriculture depends far more on fossil water irrigation than China does; as you said yourself, China's farming is based on great rivers, while US's breadbasket, the Great Plains, is dry and only usable due to irrigation. Once the underground aquifers dry up, US breadbasket is gone because there's no way to move water from the low elevations of the Missisippi Basin and Great Lakes to the high elevation of the Great Plains without immense investment in infrastructure and pump stations, at the same time oil becomes very expensive, limiting any potential action on this.

 

[gambit]

LMAO you're talking to me about agriculture.

Am laughing at you, buddy. You can spew your twisting of facts all you want but that is not going to change the truth that the US has 4x greater arable land than China. You will run out of food before we run out of oil.

 

[below_freezing]

Am laughing at you, buddy. You can spew your twisting of facts all you want but that is not going to change the truth that the US has 4x greater arable land than China. You will run out of food before we run out of oil.

lmao when did i claim China has more arable land? There's some undisputed facts here. 1. you confused yield with production. 2. you thought that China imported staples. 3. you thought that mechanization increases unit yield. all have been shown false.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

Agriculture accounts for 17% of total energy used in the US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_China#Farming_method_improvements

China uses mostly physical labor.

 

[VCheng]

easy oil reserves in the US have been totally exhausted. The ratio of energy gained to energy invested in shale oil is 3:1, far inferior to the 15:1 of Saudi crude and 20:1 for domestic crude.

US oil reserve discoveries peaked in 1930, production peaked in 1975.

Great Lakes is very far from the Great Plains and it is impossible to transport that water, since the Great Plains is higher in elevation than the Great Lakes.

My point was that there are multiple energy alternatives that can be gradually pressed into service as needed.

Ever heard of pumps? I think your argument against getting Great Lakes water to the Great Plains also applies to the Chinese South-North water project, unless the Chinese have invented some secret anti-gravity device!

 

[gambit]

My point was that there are multiple energy alternatives that can be gradually pressed into service as needed.

Ever heard of pumps? I think your argument against getting Great Lakes water to the Great Plains also applies to the Chinese South-North water project, unless the Chinese have invented some secret anti-gravity device!

Am in Vegas and despite the current economic recession, the nightly watershows still goes on. This guy's failed argument is just another one in a series of failed arguments.

 

[VCheng]

Am in Vegas and despite the current economic recession, the nightly watershows still goes on. This guy's failed argument is just another one in a series of failed arguments.

Enjoy Vegas!

(I think there should be a sticky on PDF for the Daily USA "Doom&Gloom" thread, so that this type of crap stays in one place till it is flushed after debunking. )