The Decline of the AMERICAN EMPIRE

[LeGenD]

Global pressure can force the US to change its policies. War On Terror has taught valuable lessons to not just the rest of the world but to the US itself as well. Another vital factor is Corporate Governance.

The US is an industrial giant and serves as a major platform for innovation. The entire world benefits from this nation due to this aspect.

Just keep in mind that nature automatically strives for balance. After the fall of USSR, the US had too much power in its hands. The world became unipolar for a while. Therefore, it was only a matter of time when another state or several states would rise and restore the balance. This is what we all are actually witnessing - restoration of balance of power.

Overwhelming power can corrupt a society. US was no exception. However, restoration of balance will knock US back to its senses.

 

[VCheng]

Global pressure can force the US to change its policies. War On Terror has taught valuable lessons to not just the rest of the world but to the US itself as well. Another vital factor is Corporate Governance.

The US is an industrial giant and serves as a major platform for innovation. The entire world benefits from this nation due to this aspect.

However, nature automatically strives for balance. After the fall of USSR, the US had too much power in its hands. The world became unipolar for a while. Therefore, it was only a matter of time when another state or several states would rise and restore the balance. This is what we all are actually witnessing - restoration of balance of power.

Overwhelming power can corrupt a society. US was no exception. However, restoration of balance will knock US back to its senses.

See, one accusation of false-flagging was enough to knock some sense into you!

 

[SQ8]

On a relative scale.. unlike the British and those before them..The United states is by its own self too darn big and loaded with resources to survive on its own without the need to colonize.
It can afford to isolate itself from the world completely without fear of losing out on any necessity of life.

 

[Bratva]

On a relative scale.. unlike the British and those before them..The United states is by its own self too darn big and loaded with resources to survive on its own without the need to colonize.
It can afford to isolate itself from the world completely without fear of losing out on any necessity of life.

Are you sure? What about black gold, "OIL"?

 

[SQ8]

Are you sure? What about black gold, "OIL"?

Texas, Alaska and all over the place...apart from a sudden rise in investment on renewable sources of energy.

Not to mention the trillions of barrels they have pumped/intend to pump out from the middle east for use/storage in the continental United states.

 

[VCheng]

^^^ "God Bless America", has many meanings, obviously; this is just one example.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Oil is passe.

The future belongs to hydrogen and Thorium (Nuclear).

 

[VCheng]

Oil is passe.

The future belongs to hydrogen and Thorium (Nuclear).

Oil for energy may get passed over, but the all important petrochemicals will not go away for a long, long time.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Oil for energy may get passed over, but the all important petrochemicals will not go away for a long, long time.

That's correct.

 

[jamal18]

Legend. I agree with some of what you say. However:

Collapsing dollar What makes the dollar 'strong' is its position as the world currency. Recent trends for countries to 'barter' (use their and the trading partners currencies), and the widespread demand for a new world currency, shows the lack of confidence in the dollar.The fact that all countries need the dollar for trade increases its demand, when this is no longer the case, this demand will collapse. The US will be able to buy less for each dollar, and be poorer. Remember, at present the US can print paper to the value of $1million, go to any country and buy $1million worth of real assets. They can literally buy assets for pieces of paper; when the dollar is not the world currency they can't do this.

American recovey. Yes, I agree, nothing is certain, a scenario of the US getting its act together and recovering is certainly possible, something many detractors ignore. The US became the no.1 world economy after ww2, when the developing world wasn't even independent countries, and Europe was a pile of rubble. The US wasn't just the no.1 economy, it was the world economy. Now others countries are competing like never before, the world has changed totally. Even an economic recovery doesn't negate the prospect of relative decline.

The US economy is based on debt. The charts you show of 'boom' periods were individuals mortgaging their houses to buy cars and tv's, and of people getting mortgages to buy houses they couldn't afford, as events showed. This is not economic progress. How much is the US debt, and who will pay it? Almost all analysts believe the debt is unpayabe, the only discussion is how to pay the interest on this debt. And soon that may not be possible.

Defense. I am not sure what you mean about doctrine. The US did spend $100 dollars on defense, and now it spends $50. Apparently some smart generals will re-arrange things to make this $50 the same as the previous $100? Where were these smart generals when the budget was $100?

In 1956, a declining world power, Britain, attacked a developing country called Egypt at Suez. The attack was militarily successful. Could Britain do the same today?

Again, just my two cents

 

[VCheng]

Collapsing dollar What makes the dollar 'strong' is its position as the world currency. .............. Remember, at present the US can print paper to the value of $1million, go to any country and buy $1million worth of real assets. They can literally buy assets for pieces of paper; when the dollar is not the world currency they can't do this.

But that does not explain why the world is still buys ALL the bonds the US Treasury issues. They do this because they are assured that these bonds will yield what Uncle Sam has promised them. The day a bond issue is undersubsribed is the day the dollar can be suspected to be in trouble, but not before. (It would be a good exercise to see who buys how many of US bonds.)

American recovey. Yes, I agree, nothing is certain, a scenario of the US getting its act together and recovering is certainly possible, something many detractors ignore. .......................

The US economy is based on debt. .................

The US economy is based on innovation, products and services, not debt. Debt is only one financial tool that is used to enhance liquidity, that is all; it is not the basis of any economy.

Defense. I am not sure what you mean about doctrine. The US did spend $100 dollars on defense, and now it spends $50. Apparently some smart generals will re-arrange things to make this $50 the same as the previous $100? Where were these smart generals when the budget was $100?

In 1956, a declining world power, Britain, attacked a developing country called Egypt at Suez. The attack was militarily successful. Could Britain do the same today?

The US military budget is more than the next several countries combined. Even if it comes down, it will still be formidable indeed for the foreseeable future. Your example does not apply.

Again, just my two cents

You just used US currency too, albeit as a figure of speech!

 

[below_freezing]

You do realize USA has hundreds of years' worth of high quality coal lying untapped, right? And what do you mean by "energy intensity"?

For example:

excerpt from: Coal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Proved recoverable coal reserves at end-2008 (million tons)

United States 108,501 98,618 30,176 237,295 22.6
Russia 49,088 97,472 10,450 157,010 14.4
China 62,200 33,700 18,600 114,500 12.6

(First column is the high grade coal, second column is the mid grade coal, third column is low grade coal, fourth column is the total and last column is percentage of total world reserves.)

energy intensity is what you said, joules per GDP.

the US can export its coal, but it is more difficult to use the coal to power the US's extensive internal combustion engine (ICE) car fleet. there is very little public transportation in the US outside of New York, so it will be hard to achieve transportation electrification the way Europe and China has, and due to US population distribution, it will be uneconomical to expand public transportation to the suburbs.

the only possibilities are:

abandonment of the suburbs and all the resources over the 50 years that have been sunk into them.
achieving full transportation electrification within 10 years.

neither are likely to occur.

but there's one more choice:

total economic collapse.

 

[below_freezing]

http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Jim-Murray-Presentation-Slides.pdf

US coal energy content peaked in 1998. Pg. 46.

But that does not explain why the world is still buys ALL the bonds the US Treasury issues. They do this because they are assured that these bonds will yield what Uncle Sam has promised them. The day a bond issue is undersubsribed is the day the dollar can be suspected to be in trouble, but not before. (It would be a good exercise to see who buys how many of US bonds.)



The US economy is based on innovation, products and services, not debt. Debt is only one financial tool that is used to enhance liquidity, that is all; it is not the basis of any economy.



The US military budget is more than the next several countries combined. Even if it comes down, it will still be formidable indeed for the foreseeable future. Your example does not apply.



You just used US currency too, albeit as a figure of speech!

The US military budget has probably half the money taken away by corruption through 500 dollar coffee mugs and 1000 dollar toilet seats. Trillions of Pentagon money disappeared and no one knows where it is.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/05/18/MN251738.DTL

"The Department of Defense, already infamous for spending $640 for a toilet seat, once again finds itself under intense scrutiny, only this time because it couldn't account for more than a trillion dollars in financial transactions, not to mention dozens of tanks, missiles and planes."

If the Pentagon cannot account for dozens of missiles and planes, I have worries about the safety of the US nuclear arsenal.

 

[VCheng]

energy intensity is what you said, joules per GDP.

Wrong. What I referred to in my post, reproduced below, is "efficiency", not "intensity". I assume you can comprehend the difference.

Of course, the per capita productivity is also much higher in the US, and it also takes less energy input overall per dollar of GDP produced. Your comparison does not hold true at a national level.

As to the rest of your post:

the US can export its coal, but it is more difficult to use the coal to power the US's extensive internal combustion engine (ICE) car fleet. there is very little public transportation in the US outside of New York, so it will be hard to achieve transportation electrification the way Europe and China has, and due to US population distribution, it will be uneconomical to expand public transportation to the suburbs.

the only possibilities are:

abandonment of the suburbs and all the resources over the 50 years that have been sunk into them.
achieving full transportation electrification within 10 years.

neither are likely to occur.

but there's one more choice:

total economic collapse.

I think you have been watching too many dark sci-fi movies. NONE of these scenarios that you describe are realistic.

For example, the Fischer-Tropsch process can create liquid hydrocarbon fuels from coal, so that all existing infrastructure can continue to be productive by changing the fuel source without any disruption at all.

 

[below_freezing]

Wrong. What I referred to in my post, reproduced below, is "efficiency", not "intensity". I assume you can comprehend the difference.



As to the rest of your post:



I think you have been watching too many dark sci-fi movies. NONE of these scenarios that you describe are realistic.

For example, the Fischer-Tropsch process can create liquid hydrocarbon fuels from coal, so that all existing infrastructure can continue to be productive by changing the fuel source without any disruption at all.

fischer tropsch process requires huge amounts of energy for either steam reformation or syngas production. it was so bad that despite Germany inventing it in WW2, they could only scale it up to 9% of total consumption. there will also be water droplets produced in the resultant liquid, requiring yet another expensive separation step.

there is nothing the US can do to mitigate the effects of peak oil.