The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Very good analysis.
There is hope..

Would love to have your views on the OP.
As Pakistanis our primary interest lies in protecting our nation not only militarily, but also diplomatically from calculated slander.
Do you think Bangladesh will continue to partner with the BJP led government in India in undermining Pakistan in every possible way? My answer is Yes.

The logical conclusion would be a symbolic military participation in Indian aggression against Pakistan. India and Bangladesh have a mutual defense pact ( euphemistically called "Treaty of Peace and Cooperation...").
For domestic political reasons in Bangladesh it will be a great headline grabber to announce Bangladeshi troops in action against Pakistan. Of course India would like nothing better.

A precedence:
When the Indian allied regime in Afghanistan held substantial power India has encouraged it to make limited but provocative military actions on our Western border .
Pakistan's armed forces easily thwarted such attempts, and dealt out a severe punishment to the Afghan Armed forces.,However, it was a psychological discomfort for Pakistan to go into action against a neighbor with which there are close people to people ties.,Back in India the fascist propaganda media has not been able to benefit much from Pakistani Afghan tensions primarily because the Afghan government is weak.

With Bangladesh these factors do not apply. Bangladesh does not have a border with Pakistan so if under Indian patronage it does get involved in a "show and tell" aggression, against Pakistan there are only limited way Pakistan can retaliate against Bangladesh.,
For the record Bangladesh fully backed Indian airstrikes against Pakistan.

Bangladesh stands with India in fight against terror: Minister Hasan Mahmud

Bangladesh Saturday condemned the Pulwama attack and said it stands with India in its fight against terror.Forty CRPF personnel were killed and five injured in one of the deadliest terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday, when a

www.business-standard.com

There was no comment or official reaction when Pakistan defended itself and shot down intruding Indian aircraft within its territory.
Notice the lukewarm tone of the reporting in the media.

Pakistan says it shot down Indian jets, carried out airstrikes in Kashmir

One Indian pilot also has been captured

www.dhakatribune.com

If there is a war and bangladesh gets involved in any way whatsoever, then Pakistan should be prepared to reign nuclear armageddon on bangladesh.

 

[Cliftonite]

Very good analysis.
There is hope..

Would love to have your views on the OP.
As Pakistanis our primary interest lies in protecting our nation not only militarily, but also diplomatically from calculated slander.
Do you think Bangladesh will continue to partner with the BJP led government in India in undermining Pakistan in every possible way? My answer is Yes.

The logical conclusion would be a symbolic military participation in Indian aggression against Pakistan. India and Bangladesh have a mutual defense pact ( euphemistically called "Treaty of Peace and Cooperation...").
For domestic political reasons in Bangladesh it will be a great headline grabber to announce Bangladeshi troops in action against Pakistan. Of course India would like nothing better.

A precedence:
When the Indian allied regime in Afghanistan held substantial power India has encouraged it to make limited but provocative military actions on our Western border .
Pakistan's armed forces easily thwarted such attempts, and dealt out a severe punishment to the Afghan Armed forces.,However, it was a psychological discomfort for Pakistan to go into action against a neighbor with which there are close people to people ties.,Back in India the fascist propaganda media has not been able to benefit much from Pakistani Afghan tensions primarily because the Afghan government is weak.

With Bangladesh these factors do not apply. Bangladesh does not have a border with Pakistan so if under Indian patronage it does get involved in a "show and tell" aggression, against Pakistan there are only limited way Pakistan can retaliate against Bangladesh.,
For the record Bangladesh fully backed Indian airstrikes against Pakistan.

Bangladesh stands with India in fight against terror: Minister Hasan Mahmud

Bangladesh Saturday condemned the Pulwama attack and said it stands with India in its fight against terror.Forty CRPF personnel were killed and five injured in one of the deadliest terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday, when a

www.business-standard.com

There was no comment or official reaction when Pakistan defended itself and shot down intruding Indian aircraft within its territory.
Notice the lukewarm tone of the reporting in the media.

Pakistan says it shot down Indian jets, carried out airstrikes in Kashmir

One Indian pilot also has been captured

www.dhakatribune.com

I think you're making too much of a Bangladeshi intervention in an Indo Pak war. Bangladesh is a non-interventionist country. They didn't do anything to shut up Myanmar. What can they do to us?


As for any psychological defeat in the case of a B-desh India combo, that's up to us what we make of it. There is no country in the world that is more vilified or gets more bad press than Israel. It has been surrounded by 5 hostile neighbors. The psychological effects of that are enough to weaken any nation. It's all about spirit. And mind you, the US started supprting Israel much later. In the 48 and 67 war, it was fighting its enemies without the patronage of America.

The Afghan psych issue you mentioned- the problem is that our people, including our ruling powers have a mental block, bordering on Stockholm syndrome, when it comes to that country. Otherwise a simple invasion of the Wakhan strip as a bargaining chip or using divide and rule to play the different ethnicities in Afghanistan would have been enough to neutralize any Afghan threat and defeat their spirits.

Any Bangladesh support to India can't really do sh*t to us militarily. Who gives a f*** what psychological effects it has? We've faced much worse. It's mind over matter.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Why would BD will concern? Bangladesh has ZERO factor in any future Pakistan India conflict. A negligible weight which to be considered is only through government statement in favour of India and nothing more than that.
After all at first hand, why we have to consider and weighs BD - we already experienced it, so should not depend upon - once bitten twice shy.

Correct...
For Pakistan to have any expectations of even neutrality from Bangladesh in a Pakistan India conflict is futile.
Bangladesh will remain diplomatically as hostile as India is to Pakistan. In fact at various times the hostility has even exceeded India because Bangladesh refused credentials of the Pakistani envoy even as India itself was accepting Pakistan's envoy.
Hostility to Pakistan features prominently in the domestic politics of both Bangladesh and India.
It would be expected that Bangladesh would be neutral in an Indian Pakistani conflict ( the shsm facade and delusion of "Islamic Unity " not withstanding).
The most stunning example of Bangladesh's foreign policy alignment with India was in 1998 when India detonated 5 nuclear devices on Pakistan's border and asked Pakistan to accept the "new realities" ., Bangladesh no way benefits from the nuking of Pakistan's cities yet it's support was for India. When Pakistan demonstrated its nuclear capabilities Bangladesh was silent.

A reality check:

There is a deep hatred in Bangladesh both amongst the people and the government they elect, for the people of Pakistan. This hatred in fact exceeds even the hatred in India, where there are secular groups calling for a reduction of India Pakistan tensions.
The "Islamic Unity " views expressed on this forum by members from Bangladesh are not representative of either their government or 99% of the masses in Bangladesh.

One thing common amongst Indian and Bangladeshi members on this forum is the fact that both view Pakistan as a defeated, weak ,broken and humiliated enemy, over which their countries in alliance scored a decisive military victory. So Pakistan must continue its existence as a defeated nation and subject itself to the will of India and Bangladesh.
While this is a populist sentiment in Bangladesh, India and Indians ( PDF members not counting) has long since adopted a more realistic stance.

Indians realize that whatever happened in 1971 has done nothing to enhance India's security, and in-fact India now lies exposed to the dual nuclear threat from Pakistan and China. Whatever happened in 1971 has done nothing to affect Pakistan's resolve to defend itself and Pakistan is not afraid of escalating a response to a threat to the ultimate level of mutual destruction. With an integrated and far more defensible territory Pakistan will fight a war to the bitter end.
Bangladesh would be very satisfied if a Pakistan India conflict results in the destruction of Pakistan. Bangladesh ( not counting Bhutan) is the only South Asian nation that consistently supports India in its aggression against Pakistan.

One may argue that there is no corresponding hatred for Bangladesh in Pakistan. This in a way is good because it opens up a remote possibility of "better relations" between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The question is how far must Pakistan go to appease Bangladesh?.
Pakistan keeps making outreaches,
and keeps receiving a humiliating rebuff ( obviously to India's delight).
What does Pakistan hope to gain from better relations with Bangladesh? How much longer should Pakistan keep tolerating the rebuffs and snubs from Bangladesh?

Thanks @Cliftonite for a great insight.
My last post.

@Cliftonite
Any Bangladesh support to India can't really do sh*t to us militarily. Who gives a f*** what psychological effects it has? We've faced much worse. It's mind over matter.

Of course. !... and this should be the sentiment going forward. Which is why our government should show more resolve and likewise we on this forum should give far less slack ti the PDF members chest thumping their nationalism.,

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Correct...
For Pakistan to have any expectations of even neutrality from Bangladesh in a Pakistan India conflict is futile.
Bangladesh will remain diplomatically as hostile as India is to Pakistan. In fact at various times the hostility has even exceeded India because Bangladesh refused credentials of the Pakistani envoy even as India itself was accepting Pakistan's envoy.
Hostility to Pakistan features prominently in the domestic politics of both Bangladesh and India.
It would be expected that Bangladesh would be neutral in an Indian Pakistani conflict ( the shsm facade and delusion of "Islamic Unity " not withstanding).
The most stunning example of Bangladesh's foreign policy alignment with India was in 1998 when India detonated 5 nuclear devices on Pakistan's border and asked Pakistan to accept the "new realities" ., Bangladesh no way benefits from the nuking of Pakistan's cities yet it's support was for India. When Pakistan demonstrated its nuclear capabilities Bangladesh was silent.

A reality check:

There is a deep hatred in Bangladesh both amongst the people and the government they elect, for the people of Pakistan. This hatred in fact exceeds even the hatred in India, where there are secular groups calling for a reduction of India Pakistan tensions.
The "Islamic Unity " views expressed on this forum by members from Bangladesh are not representative of either their government or 99% of the masses in Bangladesh.

One thing common amongst Indian and Bangladeshi members on this forum is the fact that both view Pakistan as a defeated, weak ,broken and humiliated enemy over which their countries in alliance scored a decisive military victory. So Pakistan must continue its existence as a defeated nation and subject itself to the will of India and Bangladesh.
While this is a populist sentiment in Bangladesh, India ( PDF members not counting) has long since adopted a more realistic stance.

Indians realize that whatever happened in 1971 has done nothing to enhance India's security, and in-fact India now lies exposed to the dual nuclear threat from Pakistan and China. Whatever happened in 1971 has done nothing to affect Pakistan's resolve to defend itself and Pakistan is not afraid of escalating a response to a threat to the ultimate level of mutual destruction. With an integrated and far more defensible territory Pakistan will fight a war to the bitter end.
Bangladesh would be very satisfied if a Pakistan India conflict results in the destruction of Pakistan. Bangladesh ( not counting Bhutan) is the only South Asian nation that consistently supports India in its aggression against Pakistan.

One may argue that there is no corresponding hatred for Bangladesh in Pakistan. This in a way is good because it opens up a remote possibility of "better relations" between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The question is how far must Pakistan go to appease Bangladesh?.
Pakistan keeps making outreaches,
and keeps receiving a humiliating rebuff ( obviously to India's delight).
What does Pakistan hope to gain from better relations with Bangladesh? How much longer should Pakistan keep tolerating the rebuffs and snubs from Bangladesh?

The answer is simple. If bangladesh joins india in a war against Pakistan, we will rain down nuclear armageddon and hell..... on bangladesh, wiping it off the face of the earth forever. Problem solved. Rest of the world won't care or be that bothered. No one will come to help them either.

 

[Baibars_1260]

The answer is simple. If bangladesh joins india in a war against Pakistan, we will rain down nuclear armageddon and hell..... on bangladesh, wiping it off the face of the earth forever. Problem solved. Rest of the world won't care or be that bothered. No one will come to help them either.

Agree, that will likely happen.
As can be seen in what happened in 2019, Bangladesh consistently pokes its nose in matters that are entirely bi-lateral to Pakistan and India.
What Bangladesh gains from this other than a pat on the head as a "poodle" is unclear.
In the future, this stance of Bangladesh could result in an action with tragic consequences.,

 

[Baibars_1260]

I think you're making too much of a Bangladeshi intervention in an Indo Pak war. Bangladesh is a non-interventionist country. They didn't do anything to shut up Myanmar. What can they do to us

An excellent post.
What is your viewpoint on why Bangladesh pokes its nose into Kashmir which is purely a bi-lateral matter between Pakistan and India
Is it being a "poodle " effect?

 

[Cliftonite]

An excellent post.
What is your viewpoint on why Bangladesh pokes its nose into Kashmir which is purely a bi-lateral matter between Pakistan and India
Is it being a "poodle " effect?

Partly to cosy up to India and partly to feed anti-Pakistan sentiment at home.

Like it or not, Pakistan is the oppressor in their national narrative. They have to posit and maintain that they 'liberated' themselves from Pakistan. And so they have to throw a bone to their anti-Pakistan Awami league base.

But I really don't think Bangladesh will play any decisive role in an Indo-Pak war. It's one of those false myths that is often perpetuated by hawkish spin doctors and touts a la Orya Maqbool Jan, just like much was made of the India-Iran collusion in Balochistan in the late 2000s but it turned out to be a lot of hot air. On the contrary, Saddam Hussein was meddling in Balochistan to get back at Iran. And later UAE and Oman.

 

[Jobless Jack]

The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.
Can Bangladeshi "neutrality" be taken for granted?
Is it far fetched to assume Bangladesh is not neutral, and does pose a very minuscule but still possible threat to Pakistan?

Let's look at the facts:

1.0 Overall picture:
Bangladesh has supported India in all its military actions against Pakistan since 1971.
2.0 Military interoperability and alliance:
Bangladesh and India have a formal economic and military alliance , and a complete interoperability and mutual logistics support amongst their armed forces. Bangladesh and Indian armed forces ( particularly the Bangladeshi Navy) exercise and war game with their Indian armed forces counterparts regularly with an undisguised identification of who the "enemy " is.
A large batch of Bangladeshi army officers graduate from India's defense academies ( NDA, Khadakvasla, Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, OTS Madras, ) as well as undergoing advanced training at institutions such as Wellington Staff College. Sharing common equipment BAF maintenance and flying personnel are regularly trained in India.,
2.0 The diplomatic angle:
The Indian Pakistan military confrontations ( Siachen 1985, Operation Brasstacks 1987, Kargil 1999, 2002, 2019, LOC shelling ) have nowhere involved Bangladesh or in anyway affected Bangladeshi security, yet diplomatically Bangladesh has completely sided with India both at international forums such as the UN (or what's left of SAARC ) and on a one on one level echoing the Indian foreign ministry statements and condemning Pakistan.
3.0 Bangladeshi military activity against Pakistan
So far Bangladesh has limited its activity mainly to observers such as during Operations Brass Tacks (1987). Also the BAF takes a keen interest in downed Pakistani military aircraft such as the recovered debris of the PN Breguet Atlantic shot down inside Pakistani airspace by an IAF Mig 21 in 1999.
4. Open threats to Pakistan :
Particularly in 2019 and also before, there have threats made by the foreign office of Bangladesh against Pakistan, echoing the Indian Ministry of Defense and senior Indian Military officers. The threats have been made by the Bangladesh Foreign office only , unlike their ally where chiefs of the three armed forces wings have usually issued threats The Bangladeshi COAS, BAF, ACM, and BN Admiralty have not been making any comments so far.

But why would Bangladesh get involved in an Indian conflict with Pakistan. The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.

The next question is why would India want to involve Bangladesh and Bhutan in a war against Pakistan and would Bangladesh agree.
The answer is that for propaganda purposes India would very much like to have Bangladeshi forces fighting alongside ( deja vu 1971) even though Indian armed forces commanders know that the real impact of Bangladesh's participation in a war with Pakistan would be minimal. Showing a "coalition" is a great diplomatic and psychological warfare feat. Other countries have done this such as the USA who frequently coopts allies in its wars even though their contribution is minimal.
The USA brought Mongolian troops to fight in Iraq as part of the "coalition". The presence of the Mongols ( all 100 of them) was to demoralize the Iraqis recalling the sack of Baghdad by Hulaku Khan in 1258 C.E. The Mongol contingent left after several of their troops were killed by Iraqi resistance.
It's the famous "Us vs You" psychological stance.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)
The war game:
We have already war gamed the India Pakistan ultimate showdown scenario and how the war would escalate into a nuclear blood bath so this article is confined to a limited war initiated and planned by the India Bangladesh Axis for a diplomatic and military humiliation of Pakistan where the war would be brief and limited holding the threshold just short of a full Pakistani collapse where Pakistan would use nuclear weapons as a last desperate act of retaliation.
It's a different topic but the war would only be waged when Bangladesh and India believe that Pakistan is sufficiently isolated from its traditional West Asian alliance and economically weakened through international sanctions.
Going forward.
Bangladesh's contribution to India's war effort.
Realistically what would be Bangladesh's contribution to India's military actions on Pakistan's eastern borders.
Air support:
A few BAF Su 30s would probably be flying operations in support of the IAF within Indian airspace . Much of the BAF support would be from transport aircraft as both India and Bangladesh fly C130Js. BAF Mil 17s would probably pitch in. It is doubtful given the training and lack of war experience that BAF would carry out air strikes inside Pakistan, unless they can miraculously come with worthy successors to Rafique and Saiful Azam.
Naval support:
Bangladesh Navy would probably be assisting Indian Navy operations in the Palk Straits trying to intercept Pakistani maritime traffic en-route to China
Army support :
Bangladesh would probably like to avoid casualties hoping for a grand re-enactment of 1971 with the heavy lifting done by India.
BA units are unlikely to be involved in direct fighting especially as there is a severe danger of heavy casualties from a tactical nuclear strike. A few BA units might be positioned as reserves in the rear to function as an occupation force once a portion of the front collapses. India would like to keep the occupied areas under "Muslim" alliance control as their armor moves deeper towards other objectives.
Hopefully the presence of Muslim troops will deter a partisan Mujahid resistance.

The ultimate war game
Pakistan does not share borders with Bangladesh and so there are fewer ways Pakistan can retaliate in a limited conflict. Bangladesh's forces have a huge advantage operating from friendly Indian territory.
. Pakistani submarines would doubtless target Bangladeshi commercial maritime traffic through the Arabian sea and BAF aircraft operating in Indian airspace would be fair game. Bangladesh Army units stationed in the rear of the IB within artillery and MRLS range would definitely be targeted.
We could war game a huge number of scenarios elsewhere but to conclude with the question:

In an ultimate Apocalypse Pakistan would be targeting Kolkata. Would Pakistan strike Dhaka and the rest of Bangladesh as well, knowing that the vast majority of the civilian deaths would be of our so called "brethren in faith" ?

This article is...

Either you dont know bangladesh as a country or you listen to the indian tv news too much

 

[Baibars_1260]

This article is...

Either you dont know bangladesh as a country or you listen to the indian tv news too much

On Indian TV on 26 January 2021:
We will watch Bangladeshi Army soldiers marching down Janpath New Delhi along with Indian troops saluting President Kovind of India. .

Could you tell us what we don't know about Bangladesh?

Bangladesh Armed Forces contingent to participate in India’s Republic Day parade

Bangladesh Armed Forces contingent to participate in India’s Republic Day parade

A 122-member triservice contingent of the Bangladesh Armed Forces will participate in the Republic Day parade of India this year, reported Indian newspaper The Hindu.

www.thedailystar.net

Bangladesh military unit to take part in Republic Day parade

122-member team to join parade on 50th anniversary of 1971 liberation war.

www.thehindu.com

 

[IndiaIsBad]

When someone ran out of real scenarios to bash bangladeshis, they started inventing hypothetical ones.

What if there is a war between Martians and earth. Will bangladeshis support mars or earth?

 

[Baibars_1260]

When someone ran out of real scenarios to bash bangladeshis, they started inventing hypothetical ones.

What if there is a war between Martians and earth. Will bangladeshis support mars or earth?

Will Mongolians support a US led war against Iraq ?
Oh wait! They already did.,.

Small nations like to piggyback om others to relive their past glory.
Bangladesh has more reasons to fight Pakistan on behalf of India then the Mongols fighting Iraq.
The Mongolians were remembering their victory 800 years earlier.
For Bangladesh it is only 50 years since their Civil War "victory ".

 

[padamchen]

If there is a war and bangladesh gets involved in any way whatsoever, then Pakistan should be prepared to reign nuclear armageddon on bangladesh.

Rain.

Cheers, Doc

 

[Jobless Jack]

On Indian TV on 26 January 2021:
We will watch Bangladeshi Army soldiers marching down Janpath New Delhi along with Indian troops saluting President Kovind of India. .

Could you tell us what we don't know about Bangladesh?

Bangladesh Armed Forces contingent to participate in India’s Republic Day parade

Bangladesh Armed Forces contingent to participate in India’s Republic Day parade

A 122-member triservice contingent of the Bangladesh Armed Forces will participate in the Republic Day parade of India this year, reported Indian newspaper The Hindu.

www.thedailystar.net

Bangladesh military unit to take part in Republic Day parade

122-member team to join parade on 50th anniversary of 1971 liberation war.

www.thehindu.com

Sure

1)As long as awami league stays in power, this will happen. But really, in the event of a war bangladesh will maintain neutrality. I will say why later.

2) As for the speeches and these parades against Pakistan, thats Just that. Speeches..and parades.. Because politicians have a vote base to appeal to, however small or big, and pakistan bashing helps awami league in 2 ways a) signals to india friendship( atleast on paper) b) it tries to legitimize the awami league to the people by playing the 71' card and pull the wool over their current corruption. Thats the only reason awami league bashes pak.

3) Now why will awami league maintain neutrality? Because lets face it. The india cannot win a war on pak and pak cannot win a war on india. If there is a war, this will significantly weaken the indian state to the point of breakup. Which really every bangladeshi wont mind.

4) however, awami league lacks support from general public , ever wonder why there has been no proper election in bd for more than a decade? Because generally today, more people hate india in bd. 71' is a sensitive issue, but the current generation has only seen indian exploitation. The anti pak speeches provides lip service to the older generation and harcore awami league fans (30%) of bd.

5) bd army is actually very anti india, but really what can they do? If they do a coup, they will need a foreign powers backup as bd does not have anything to challenge india with. So currently just obeying and bidding time.

6) if awami league was really interested in a hostlity with pak, they would have discarded china, but they are closing upto china, pakistans ally. China is the highest driving factor in bd economy and weapons supplier. Something india tried and failed to be. That should tell you something. If we r being friends with china, indirectly we are being you friend as well.

7) true what you said, the chnese wont be able to maintain influence in bd, but it doesnt need to be. They just need to give bd that strategic shelter by being a counter balance to india ( supplying bd with weapons, and extending diplomatic support on external issues and investing in bd which china is doing), and we can take care of the rest on the ground.

 

[BlueWhales]

Bengalis are Indian Puppet, Never Forget, They will take Indian side but only for condemning Pakistan..

Bengalis can not harm Pakistan as Pak-BD never share borders..

 

[Baibars_1260]

Sure

1)As long as awami league stays in power, this will happen. But really, in the event of a war bangladesh will maintain neutrality. I will say why later.

2) As for the speeches and these parades against Pakistan, thats Just that. Speeches..and parades.. Because politicians have a vote base to appeal to, however small or big, and pakistan bashing helps awami league in 2 ways a) signals to india friendship( atleast on paper) b) it tries to legitimize the awami league to the people by playing the 71' card and pull the wool over their current corruption. Thats the only reason awami league bashes pak.

3) Now why will awami league maintain neutrality? Because lets face it. The india cannot win a war on pak and pak cannot win a war on india. If there is a war, this will significantly weaken the indian state to the point of breakup. Which really every bangladeshi wont mind.

4) however, awami league lacks support from general public , ever wonder why there has been no proper election in bd for more than a decade? Because generally today, more people hate india in bd. 71' is a sensitive issue, but the current generation has only seen indian exploitation. The anti pak speeches provides lip service to the older generation and harcore awami league fans (30%) of bd.

5) bd army is actually very anti india, but really what can they do? If they do a coup, they will need a foreign powers backup as bd does not have anything to challenge india with. So currently just obeying and bidding time.

6) if awami league was really interested in a hostlity with pak, they would have discarded china, but they are closing upto china, pakistans ally. China is the highest driving factor in bd economy and weapons supplier. Something india tried and failed to be. That should tell you something. If we r being friends with china, indirectly we are being you friend as well.

7) true what you said, the chnese wont be able to maintain influence in bd, but it doesnt need to be. They just need to give bd that strategic shelter by being a counter balance to india ( supplying bd with weapons, and extending diplomatic support on external issues and investing in bd which china is doing), and we can take care of the rest on the ground.

Points well taken ! That is the ground reality of the situation in Bangladesh.
There is the existing defense treaty.
India could still formally ask for Bangladesh's participation in a conflict and Bangladesh's refusal or a stance of neutrality, would be viewed as a violation of the treaty and a hostile act.

Will draw a close parallel to a situation, concerning India, Pakistan, and the now defunct Soviet Union.
The treaty between Bangladesh and India is closely modeled on a very similar treaty between the Soviet Union and India signed shortly before the Indian involvement in the Civil War that led to the independence of Bangladesh.
India invoked the treaty with the Soviet Union seeking support, to deter the intervention of the USA on the side of Pakistan in Bangladesh, The Soviet Union did offer total diplomatic (UN veto) , and military support including the mobilization of its own naval assets.
The tables were turned in 1979-80 when the Soviet Union planned to invade Afghanistan. The Soviets well knew that controlling Afghanistan, without controlling Pakistan was an impossibility. The Soviet Union was distracted with a NATO build up in Europe, and a Chinese build up on it's borders. The Soviet Union knew that it would not be possible to deploy enough forces to quickly overrun Pakistan, though a punishing air offensive could be maintained to temporarily deter Pakistani support to the Afghan resistance.
Getting India into the act was vital. Pakistan would not survive a simultaneous Indian and Soviet invasion. Pakistan had no nuclear weapons then and the Soviet Union was fully prepared to use all it's assets.
The Soviet Union called upon the Indian government headed by Morarji Desai under the terms of the treaty to consider initiating action on Pakistan's eastern border.
Morarji Desai was a pacifist and "Gandhian " and he refused. Had Indira Gandhi been in power with Natwar Singh as foreign minister there was a distinct chance of an anti-Pakistan coalition possibly involving Bangladesh as well ( because the Treaty could have had a chain effect). Morarji Desai declined, and even though his government was toppled due to internal political conflict ( which the Soviet Union helped!), his successor Charan Singh maintained the neutrality. The Soviet Union went ahead with the invasion carrying out air strikes on refugee camps along the Pakistan Afghan border but not directly attacking Pakistan's military assets.,The Soviet Union initially enjoyed complete air superiority and because of initial military successes in stopping the Afghan Mujahideen the Soviets did not view India's betrayal that seriously. They preferred to wait till a more Soviet friendly government was in power in India.

Indira Gandhi was voted back to power in 1980 but got too heavily involved in a Sikh insurgency in Punjab to risk a war with Pakistan.,
The rest is known...

India is unlikely to make the same mistake as the Soviet Union and will invoke the treaty ; assuming there is an unfriendly government in power in Bangladesh. A very remote possibility given the complete dominance of politicians in India's "pocket" and control of Bangladesh's mass media.
As for the young generation.
Very few in Bangladesh's new generation have a balanced view of Pakistan or even know much about the country.