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Tehran’s Worst Nightmare Armenia Azerbaijan conflict

Russia and Iran are conducting a joint military exercise in North caucuses, Black Sea & Caspian sea.

The goal is that Russia will annex Georgia while Iran will annex Azerbaijan.

If you're referring to the "Kavkaz 2020" military exercice held in late September, the goal was obviously not to annex other countries. Even Pakistan participated in those maneuvers.
 
Azerbaijan lost their "Shia" status when they decided to ally themselves with Osman-wannabe Erdogan and Israeli Arms dealing, including allowing access to their facilities to Israeli intelligence services.

That is not how it works.

@AgNoStiC MuSliM Can we do something about these repeated allegations that Azerbaycan is not Muslim or Shia?

Isn't this Takfir?
 
Tehran’s Worst Nightmare
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could spill over to Iran’s Azeri minority, setting off a battle the government can’t contain.
BY ALEX VATANKA | OCTOBER 14, 2020, 10:31 AM
GettyImages-azerbaijan-armenia-iran-1229026364.jpg

An unexploded BM-30 Smerch missile is seen on the outskirts of Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh, on Oct. 12.

The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan comes at a particularly bad time for Iran. At home, it faces an extremely difficult economic situation thanks to U.S. sanctions. Abroad, it is involved in multiple unfinished geopolitical adventures in the Arab world—from Iraq to Syria and beyond—in which it has invested considerably in recent years.

Although it might like to involve itself in the conflict in the South Caucasus, where it has played the role of mediator before, Tehran’s bandwidth to do so is considerably less than its geographic proximity to the conflict might suggest. Worse still, Tehran does not enjoy the diplomatic independence it had in the early 1990s, when fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh last erupted on this scale and when the Iranians could more effectively work between the two sides.

Instead, this time around, Tehran has to take a back seat to Russia, Turkey, and the West as those powers shape the trajectory of the conflict. And yet, thanks to Iran’s sizable Azeri minority, at around 20 million strong, there’s a real possibility that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could overflow and pose a serious risk to internal Iranian security. Tehran doesn’t want to lose in this conflict, but it holds a weak hand.

After the latest hostilities between Christian-majority Armenia and Shiite Muslim-majority Azerbaijan broke out on Sept. 27, it took Tehran three days to accept that this new outbreak of violence was qualitatively different from previous skirmishes. Despite the signing of a cease-fire at the end of the 1988-1994 war, the two neighboring countries have engaged in multiple rounds of fighting in the years since, including, most recently, earlier this summer. Four days into the hostilities, realizing that the usual quick end was not in the offing, Tehran suddenly shifted its diplomatic rhetoric from an emphasis on its neutrality and willingness to mediate between Yerevan and Baku to claims that it has sided with the Azerbaijanis.

On Oct. 1, the political representatives of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in four of the country’s northwestern provinces with significant ethnic Azeri populations released a joint statement in support of Azerbaijan. The statement declared that “there is no doubt” that the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. Yet the statement happened to be issued just as reports revealed that Tehran had opened up its airspace for Russian military supplies destined for Armenia. Protests broke out not only in the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan but also in Tehran, with such chants as “Karabakh is ours. It will remain ours.”


The mere mention of the possibility of Iran acting as a conduit for arms for Armenia was bound to be explosive news, and it was destined to be swiftly denied by Tehran. This is exactly what happened. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign-policy advisor to Khamenei, all reiterated the position that Armenia should leave the Azerbaijani territory it has occupied since 1994. More recklessly, a leading pro-regime grand ayatollah, Hossein Nouri Hamedani, framed the conflict in religious terms: “Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the Islamic world and should return to the Islamic country and must be liberated.”

The popular momentum behind fully siding with Baku has been so great that Tehran has not even allowed Azerbaijan’s close partnership with Israel to get in the way. Azerbaijan, one of four Shiite Muslim-majority countries in the world (together with Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain), also happens to have close economic, military, and intelligence ties with Israel, Tehran’s regional archfoe. But that has been a reality for some two decades, and the Iranians have learned to adapt to it.

Simply put, Iran is not in a position to act in opposition to its own Azeri minority. Unlike in the early 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union was just opening room for Iranian Azeris to reconnect with their brethren to the north, who had been under Russian/Soviet rule since the early 1800s, the ethnic Iranian Azeri community is today far more aware of the dynamics behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and far more passionately behind Baku. This poses a serious concern for Tehran. Iran is, after all, a multiethnic country, and Tehran is ill prepared to handle an uprising among other aggrieved minorities sparked by the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

Already, periodic skirmishes with militant ethnic groups are a reality of life in the country. In the southeast, on the border with Pakistan, the ethnic Baloch Sunni jihadi group Jaish al-Adl, with its reported ties to al Qaeda, continues to target Iranian security forces. Ongoing anti-Tehran militancy is also part of life in Iran’s western Kurdish regions on the border with Iraq.

Read full article source https://flip.it/TGlcuP

We need pro-Azeri viewpoint here in this thread.

@MMM-E @Turcici Imperium @raahaat7 @Hassan Al-Somal @Mirzah @PakFactor @Falcon29 @PAKISTANFOREVER @PaklovesTurkiye @21st Century Vampire @Musings @TNT @Mamluk @peagle @khansaheeb @masterchief_mirza @thetutle @PakAlp @hussain0216 @Qutb-ud-din Aybak @omegalamba7XL9

Which country do u represent?
Azerbaijan is totally Shia and Iran will gladly shoot down Armenia drones? Are u in the right forum ..eh?

Shah sey zyada shah ka bangali wafadar.
Azerbaijan is highly secular. There is only 1 shop in Baku that has Muslim symbol.

Good, so you disagree with Armenia, who accuses them of being an extremist Islamic state.

That is a step in the correct direction. Good for you.

As for takfir, it is a serious allegation of Islam and cannot be made so lightly. By declaring a Muslim a kaffir, the false allegation goes back and makes the accuser a kaffir instead.

Iranian state must be careful about using this kind of Khawarij rhetoric.
 
Worst nightmare ?
anything that diverts attention is a blessing for Tehran's regime
not even a nightmare for azeris , they've liberated 8 more villages !
Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict raises spectre of 'pan-Turkism' in Iran


 
Iranian state must be careful about using this kind of Khawarij rhetoric.

When did the Iranian state use Khawarij rhetoric? Could you provide an example along with a source?

___


More of the same baseless propaganda in that article.

1) Iranians cannot be crammed into so-called "ethnic" categories. Upwards of 60% of them have multiple linguistic-communal backgrounds. Genetically speaking, over 95% of Iranians belong to a same Aryan group of people.

2) Neither politics nor social interactions in Iran are determined by backwards notions such as "ethnicity". Neither state nor citizenry view foreign policy from the prism of purported "ethnic" affiliation, but through the primacy of national interest as well as shared Islamic values and ideological principles, as in any well integrated nation (and Iran is one of the most cohesive nations, heir to a several millenia old civilization and the longest continually existing state in the world).

3) A couple hundred separatist traitors manipulated by hostile foreign intelligence services (among which Mossad and the CIA) displaying subversive hand gestures and trying to sow disunity pursuant to the zio-American masterplan to balkanize all countries of the region, are not representative of Azari Iranians (the term "Iranian Azaris" is an incorrect one).
 
Iran’s dubious policy towards Azerbaijan
Search and rescue teams work on a blast site hit by an Armenian rocket, in the city of Ganja, Azerbaijan, Oct. 11, 2020. (Reuters Photo)

Search and rescue teams work on a blast site hit by an Armenian rocket, in the city of Ganja, Azerbaijan, Oct. 11, 2020. (Reuters Photo)

by Mus Cner

Oct 13, 2020 12:05 am



In the early hours of Sept. 27, Armenian troops violated the 1994 cease-fire and attacked populated regions of Azerbaijan. The initial act of aggression was suppressed by Azerbaijani forces, however, soon clashes resumed and showed this fight had the potential of evolving into a much broader conflict. Both parties have recorded casualties including civilians on the Azerbaijani side. Baku's parliament declared martial law as well as the liberation of several villages from Armenian occupation.
Recent clashes between the two Caucasus nations cannot be analyzed without including the influence of other regional powers in the equation. It is evident the Armenian aggression is supported by the Russians who wish to hold on to their influence in the Caucasus in the post-Soviet era. Moscow sees Yerevan as a tool to curb Baku's potential power in the region and restrain the energy-rich country. The Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance and its potential regional implications is another headache for the Kremlin. Turkey announced its support for Azerbaijan from the get-go and condemned the Armenian attacks. Ukraine, one of Russia's prominent opponents, followed Turkey in blaming Yerevan for the aggression and declared its support for Azerbaijan.
Another close friend of Russia in this regard is Iran. Tehran has declared numerous times its position of neutrality on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and has offered to act as a mediator between the two countries, a proposal recently reiterated by the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson of Iran Saeed Khatibzadeh.
Although Tehran verbally accepts United Nations resolutions and international law, it has never clearly condemned Armenia for occupying Azerbaijan's territory. On the contrary, it has recently come to light that Iranian tankers carrying oil were operating between Iran and the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is a blatant violation of international law.
Two power plants have been set up along the border between Iran and Nagorno-Karabakh, which Iran claims are part of a deal with Azerbaijan but many are claiming Tehran actually made a secret agreement with the self-declared Republic of Artsakh. During the early phases of the recent conflict, reports indicated that Russian planes loaded with weapons were passing through Iranian airspace to help the Armenian forces.




In addition to Tehran's problematic stance on the issue, the Iranian media's continued campaigns of defamation against Azerbaijan and Turkey add another layer to the issue. Following the Tovuz clashes in July, many Iranian outlets claimed that Turkey had started to send “fighters” from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh, with many sources close to the Assad regime circulating the same baseless claim in an attempt to undermine Ankara's stance in both Syria and Azerbaijan. After recent fighting, some Iranian outlets accused Azerbaijan of attacking Armenia, indirectly participating in Armenia’s propaganda efforts.
Iran's position on recent tensions is noteworthy for a number of reasons. Tehran's regional activities have always been under the premise of building a “(Shiite) crescent,” but this does not seem to apply when it comes to its dealings with Azerbaijan, where the majority of the population are Shiite Muslims. Iran's attitude towards Azerbaijan cannot be explained through religious or sectarian reasons.
Ali Motahari, son of the famous Islamic revolutionary Ayatollah Morteza Motahari, openly criticized Iran’s position regarding the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh territory. He said, “Iran should have been with Azerbaijan in the name of Islamic unity. However, it acts the other way around.” As in the case of Ali Motahari, Tehran’s policy has criticism coming from within.
Various factors contribute to Tehran’s Azerbaijani agenda with one of the foremost being the Turkish presence in Iran. Nearly 40 million Turks are living in the nation today and they share cultural commonalities with Azerbaijani Turks and this reality fuels Tehran’s fears of separation in Turk-populated areas. Another reason for this policy is Iran's struggle for hegemony in the Caucasus, where there are no "neighborly" policies in place and Azerbaijan is considered a rival.
From an energy perspective, Turkey has reduced its dependence on Russia and Iran by recently buying more gas from Azerbaijan. Officials in Tehran have complained several times with some even accusing Ankara of not repairing the Iran-Turkey gas pipeline on purpose, which was damaged in terrorist attacks. All in all, Tehran examines the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh through a practical rather than moral or ideological perspective while pursuing its material interests. Iran's dubious policy towards Azerbaijan shows that its declarations of Islamic unity, international law and creating a good neighborhood in the Caucasus are just empty words. Iran could potentially complicate its relations not only with Azerbaijan but also Turkey, a country on which it relies on for support in the face of U.S. pressure coupled with its internal economic and social crises.

*Research assistant at Middle East Institute, Sakarya University

---‐------

Azerbaijani Audience Gets A Taste Of Iranian 'Soft Power'
July 09, 2008 13:39 GMT
Captive Tea-V audience?

Captive Tea-V audience?


ASTARA, Azerbaijan -- The teahouses of Astara, as usual, are filled with the chatter of men discussing their everyday problems as they sip tea produced in the southern Azerbaijani district bordering Iran.

Their spirited conversations come to an abrupt halt with the introductory jingle of a popular news program.

But while this Azeri-language programming, which has attracted so many locals' attention, offers much fodder for tearoom debate, it is also a key part of what some see as a one-sided Iran-Azerbaijan information war.

The source of the programs is Iran's state-run Sahar TV, whose efforts to broadcast to Azerbaijan in Azeri often overpower domestic signals. They have even been said to reach as far as Baku, about 240 kilometers from the border.

Much of Sahar's programming deals with religion, leading critics to suggest that the broadcasts are part of a wider effort to export the ideals of the Iranian Revolution. Some of those same detractors accuse Tehran of employing a "soft power" assault to unduly influence the Azerbaijani public -- or even undermine indigenous culture or tradition.

The situation has prompted a hostile reaction from Azerbaijan, which last year suspended the licenses of all foreign television broadcasters. Baku claims Iran's broadcasts are illegal and takes issue with the frequent criticism of its government for its political and economic ties to the West.

Once part of the southern frontier of the Soviet Union, moreover, Azerbaijan continues to struggle to define its religious identity following decades of secularism. While more than 90 percent of the population is nominally Muslim (approximately 65 percent Shi'a and 35 percent Sunni), the segment of practicing adherents is believed to be far smaller.

Most of the men RFE/RL spoke to in one Astara teahouse were reluctant to provide their names, but didn't hide their fondness for Sahar TV's "Compass" program and for call-in shows conducted in their native tongue.

One young man, who said he tunes in between work at a car-repair shop, says he shares the belief that the Iranian programming offers alternative opinions rarely seen on domestic television.

"Of course I watch the Iranian channels, they have very good programs," he says. "They have different programs: critical. As needed."

"They say all things that are hidden here," a colleague is quick to add of "Compass," saying it has become his favorite program.

Filling A Void?

An elderly patron, Huseyn Abilov, says he too watches "Compass" but suggests that it is not necessarily by choice. Local channels are jammed by the Iranians, he believes, or simply cannot compete with the strength of the Iranian broadcasts beamed across the border.

While Astara's viewers can only tune in to two domestic channels, high-quality images are available from four Iranian channels -- most broadcasting in Farsi.

Abilov also laments the nature of the programs, saying they are often hostile toward Azerbaijan. "They don't speak for good of our country," he says. "I am very sorry about this. We are friendly nations."

The Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan, Naser Hamidi Zare, recently addressed such allegations, telling Azerbaijan's ANS television on June 2 that "our relations are sincere" and saying that he was unaware of any criticism of Azerbaijan in Iranian media.

But Abilov is not alone in his assessments. In discussions with Iran, the Azerbaijani government has on several occasions brought up the issue of Iranian interference with its airwaves.

Aflatun Sharifov, director of the Teleradio Production Union under Azerbaijan's Communications Ministry, says Baku is attempting to resolve the issue through bilateral commissions.

But he says the union also keeps a sharp eye out for undue criticism contained in the Iranian broadcasts, which lead to jamming efforts on the Azerbaijani end.

"If there are any broadcasts of anti-Azerbaijani content, we take some measures to prevent those. These measures have been efficient in the southern districts," Sharifov says. "If Sahar TV broadcasts something that harms our national interests, we prevent it. However, we are only doing it in our territory. We cannot do anything in the territory of other state."

Holier Than Thou

Critics might note that the same Azeri-language programming that is causing concern in Baku is unavailable to Iran's own community of millions of ethnic Azeris.

This irony has led some Azerbaijani politicians to suggest that the critical programming derives from Tehran's concern that Azerbaijani policies could destabilize regions dominated by ethnic Azeris, who make up approximately one-quarter of Iran's population.

Baku's regional clout and its diplomatic efforts -- buoyed by the confidence and rapid economic growth that comes with huge oil and gas deposits -- appear to be hitting their stride despite international criticism over rights and democracy issues.

But Azerbaijan frequently finds itself straddling the fence politically between Russia and other postcommunist states, on one side, and the West on the other.

In the energy sphere, this means that Azerbaijan can court Brussels and Washington by sending oil westward via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, while at the same time sending oil north into Russia through the existing Soviet-era network (and south to Iran.)

Likewise, as Baku pledges to help the European Union gain energy security by filling the proposed Nabucco pipeline with natural gas, it mulls increasingly lucrative offers from Gazprom to send its natural gas Moscow's way.

Politically and militarily, Azerbaijan has found itself in an awkward situation. It shows some interest in NATO through its participation in the alliance's Partnership For Peace program, for instance, but has not officially sought NATO membership, which would no doubt raise hackles in the Kremlin. More recently, Baku's offer to host U.S.-backed antimissile defense facilities, extended with Moscow's rhetoric at a fever pitch, raised hackles in Russia.

Azerbaijani officials joined the diplomatic fray over Washington's plans to build an antimissile defense shield to guard against attack by "rogue" states, offering use of the Qabala radar station despite fierce opposition from Moscow, which already rents facilities at Qabala.

Getting Used To It

Back in southern Azerbaijan, residents appear less concerned with geopolitics or the source of the programs to which they are growing accustomed.

Sahar TV's call-in show continues to receive a flood of calls from interested viewers in Astara, Lankaran, Masalli, and other southern Azerbaijani districts.

Rahim, a worker at an Astara teahouse, says locals trust the family nature of Iranian programs and says they fit with their moral and religious values.

"Children like the programs and there are women's programs for women," Rahim says. "My sister-in-law likes religious programs a lot; she always listens to them. She participated in a competition for Koran reading and won a prize from the Iranian Embassy."

In the end, says Emin Huseynov, director of the Institute for Reporters Freedom and Safety, much of the success of the Iranian programming can be attributed to local television channels' imposition of censorship.

"Azerbaijanis craving alternative opinion," he says, "feel happy to get one from Iranian channels, even if it comes with anti-America, anti-secular, and sometimes anti-Azerbaijan propaganda."

Kenan Aliyev, Khadija Ismaylova, and Mustajab Mammadov of RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service contributed to this report

 
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We need pro-Azeri viewpoint here in this thread.

@MMM-E @Turcici Imperium @raahaat7 @Hassan Al-Somal @Mirzah @PakFactor @Falcon29 @PAKISTANFOREVER @PaklovesTurkiye @21st Century Vampire @Musings @TNT @Mamluk @peagle @khansaheeb @masterchief_mirza @thetutle @PakAlp @hussain0216 @Qutb-ud-din Aybak @omegalamba7XL9



Shah sey zyada shah ka bangali wafadar.


Good, so you disagree with Armenia, who accuses them of being an extremist Islamic state.

That is a step in the correct direction. Good for you.

As for takfir, it is a serious allegation of Islam and cannot be made so lightly. By declaring a Muslim a kaffir, the false allegation goes back and makes the accuser a kaffir instead.

Iranian state must be careful about using this kind of Khawarij rhetoric.

Iran lives in her own world and will never come out of it. Waste of country and potential
 
In Iran Persians are first class citizens (official language status), Kurds are second class citizens (Aryans along with Persians), Azeris are third class citizens (Turkic speaking people)
 
Russia and Iran are conducting a joint military exercise in North caucuses, Black Sea & Caspian sea.

The goal is that Russia will annex Georgia while Iran will annex Azerbaijan.

I don't think its possible for Iran to annex Azerbaijan, Its too big a country for Iran to annex, further more it will cause further resentment of the Azeri population in Iran and not to mention a full fledge war with Turkey.
 
I don't think its possible for Iran to annex Azerbaijan, Its too big a country for Iran to annex, further more it will cause further resentment of the Azeri population in Iran and not to mention a full fledge war with Turkey.

It is possible for Iran to annex the western enclave of Azerbaijan.
 
Which country do u represent?
Azerbaijan is totally Shia and?
u think its as simple as this? You've oversimplifying the basis the Azerbaijan-Iran relationship. Azerbaijan's behavior in Iran's eyes is not friendly to IRan's interests. Why is Azerbaijan allowing Mossad fly drones from AZ into Iran? pls explain to me how that is friendly and "TOTALLY SHIA" with Iran?
Russia and Iran are conducting a joint military exercise in North caucuses, Black Sea & Caspian sea.

The goal is that Russia will annex Georgia while Iran will annex Azerbaijan.
They wont annex.....but its surely a sign that if this continues, there could be military retaliation from other partners. Azerbaijan is NO match for either country....
 
Seeing how Putin betrayed Assad and sold northern Syria to Erdogan merely for an S-400 deal, Armenia has reason to ditch Russia and join US camp for protection from Turkey. Armenia has long suspected Russia is not a dependable security partner. And Putin can go suck his * and lose another ally after Georgia, Ukraine, Bolivia, and now Armenia and Belarus.

And what has western done so far for armenia in this conflict? Nothing.... Like what happened to Ukraine.
 
It is possible for Iran to annex the western enclave of Azerbaijan.

Yes Iran can annex that area, but logically it doesn't make sense to try and annex that area. It will mean war with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Not only that it could also lead to an Azeri revolt with-in Iran which could lead to a civil war as around 20% of the population are Azeris and if the other Turkic people join in that would be around 25% of the population.
 
In Iran Persians are first class citizens (official language status), Kurds are second class citizens (Aryans along with Persians), Azeris are third class citizens (Turkic speaking people)

If that is true then how do you explain the fact that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself is an Azeri? Why do you know nothing morons feel the need to make such retarded claims that are so easily discredited?
 

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