Taiwan Conducts Live Fire Drills on Spratlys, Angering Vietnam

[bolo]

It must be hard for you to face reality. Up until now, you still can't argue against my legal analysis. Can you prove that I am wrong? or can you only resort to elementary school jokes to down play my argument?

Because no western media mention it. If you think you are smarter than the international lawyers about maritime laws be my guest. At least now every members know you are Viet.

 

[kyle Chiang]

Is the Philippine Armed Forces ready in such an event that happens? Are the Philippine Marines and Philippine Army ready or have such contingency plans in the event an outbreak occurs?

WWIII is far away,but it will bring a huge battleground in politic strategy game.It may bring more causes.
PH has presented arbitration in 2013,just wait a miniute,everything is under going.Nowadays Uncle Sam is struggling with Russian bear and ISIS snake.Waiting and to watch which card do PH will play.
Smarter Vietnam has left the table-board and is casting about for aid.
In my view,PH will be the first victim in Asia-Pacific game.Aquino has to read the book とくがわ いえやす.

 

[Genesis]

That's why I said earlier that China would definitely want to avoid any clashes from now until 2020, or perhaps uptil 2025, or further. Having internal stability is vital at this of development for China. The question is, can it become vital for someone else to disrupt this regional stability?

But before we get ahead of ourselves, I want to establish some facts first, such as:

Does the arbitral tribunal have jurisdiction over the dispute? what would be the legal implication if the Philippines win? would the US-Philippines MDT be legally triggered? etc.

Internal stability? We have that and then some, Chinese people have no war fatigue unlike the Americans. In fact we are just at that stage, where a victory would be the most welcoming thing.

As to disrupt regional stability, that won't happen, China is not looking to occupy population centres, and certainly don't give a crap who's in power. Any conflict will be short, and also isolated. The region will survive.


The tribunal has as much power as you do over the islands, if Philippines win, they might get a cookie, and the US Philippines agreement is not worth the paper they are written on.

America only defends core interests, that are threatened. A few islands taken will be difficult to take for America, but not enough to go to war with a world power, especially if Manila is not threatened.

The Philippines isn't that important, and not least because of what it did to itself for the last 40 years.

America is angry at EU for not spending on defence, you think they like what the Philippines is doing. It's just with China around the corner they can't say anything. The feeling is still there.


There's quite a few signs, why so few men in Philippines? They don't want to have enough to have to intervene.

 

[Aepsilons]

Philippines lacks the air / naval assets to project its marine / army forces into the contested territory.

They have a few means of transporting marines such as a few LST's etc, but its not enough. They are getting more assets but it will take a few years until they develop a minimum credible deterrence.

At present, there is not a single ship with missiles and there is no air force.

Lets keep in mind that we are talking about projecting forces into reef areas, they are not even islands, so there is no ground where to actually place marine forces. The assets needed are mainly naval with air support.

So far, their one major holding in the contested region is the Kalayaan Islands, the largest of which is Pagasa Island. They need to increase Marine presence here, and station some ASM batteries here, as well as Anti Air platforms. They need to do this urgently as they are qualitatively and quantitatively outgunned.

They need to also bolster the presence of Philippine Army and Philippine Marines in their Western Military Command, based in Palawaan. So that they can augment their forward deployed units in Kalayaan when needed. They have a very well trained Marine Corp, at least.

 

[Carlosa]

So far, their one major holding in the contested region is the Kalayaan Islands, the largest of which is Pagasa Island. They need to increase Marine presence here, and station some ASM batteries here, as well as Anti Air platforms. They need to do this urgently as they are qualitatively and quantitatively outgunned.

They need to also bolster the presence of Philippine Army and Philippine Marines in their Western Military Command, based in Palawaan. So that they can augment their forward deployed units in Kalayaan when needed. They have a very well trained Marine Corp, at least.

They are already doing all that, they are positioning themselves closer to the contested areas and they are preparing / enhancing their bases (and setting up new ones) in order to receive American forces. The main new location that is being set up is Oyster Bay, that will be the main location to deal with the contested territories. Subic is also getting ready for the American forces.

The thing is, the whole effort is about setting up locations for the American forces as well as the Philippino forces that will eventually be able to operate in the contested areas, but other than what the US forces can do, Philippines does not have the naval assets right now to operate themselves in the contested areas, so all that is preparation for when they actually get those assets. I would say 2 or 3 years at least until the have all the elements in place for a minimum force that can be projected into contested areas. Other than that, they rely on US forces.

Very regrettable how they allowed themselves to be in this situation after so many years of neglect of their military.

 

[SvenSvensonov]

Philippines lacks the air / naval assets to project its marine / army forces into the contested territory.

They have a few means of transporting marines such as a few LST's etc, but its not enough. They are getting more assets but it will take a few years until they develop a minimum credible deterrence.

At present, there is not a single ship with missiles and there is no air force.

Lets keep in mind that we are talking about projecting forces into reef areas, they are not even islands, so there is no ground where to actually place marine forces. The assets needed are mainly naval with air support.

@Nihonjin1051 speaks much truth with his recommendation to build up SAM and air defense systems, and I would offer perhaps a more prudent course of action. While the best course is to maintain peace, if peace cannot be found or is not expected, than deterrence is the best way forward. In the SCS aircraft don't fly unless ships cover them. They either lack the range, for interceptors and fighters or they lack the numbers, heavy bombers would fit this criteria, what is needed most is not a system to defeat aircraft, but one to keep enemy shipping far from one's own lands. ASW and AShMs, these are what are needed most. Without air support ships are put at great risk, but without SAM cover, and without ships suppressing coastal and land based air defenses, aircraft are not effective either. Use air assets for anti-missile defense as the most probable weapon to be used against you are long-range cruise missiles, but always be ready to counter enemy surface and sub-surface shipping. One other area of concern is the size of a buildup. Keep in mind that nations in the region are developing longer range UAV and UUV systems that could have the range to make air assets a viable solution to a traditionally sea dominated region. Would a token force be useful? Yes, it would slow an enemy advance, but care must be taken to balance the need to protect something with the cost of deployment and the allocation of funds to more useful measures.

 

[Carlosa]

So far, their one major holding in the contested region is the Kalayaan Islands, the largest of which is Pagasa Island. They need to increase Marine presence here, and station some ASM batteries here, as well as Anti Air platforms. They need to do this urgently as they are qualitatively and quantitatively outgunned.

They need to also bolster the presence of Philippine Army and Philippine Marines in their Western Military Command, based in Palawaan. So that they can augment their forward deployed units in Kalayaan when needed. They have a very well trained Marine Corp, at least.

Well, they are actually doing the opposite of that. They were going to fix and enlarge the airstrip in Pagasa island and they just changed their mind because they don't want to alter the status quo of the island and have the high moral ground.

They don't have ASM batteries in the Philippines at the moment. The island is small, can't place much of a military ground force there.

 

[Carlosa]

@Nihonjin1051 speaks much truth with his recommendation to build up SAM and air defense systems, and I would offer perhaps a more prudent course of action. While the best course is to maintain peace, if peace cannot be found or is not expected, that deterrence is the best way forward. In the SCS aircraft don't fly unless ships cover them. They either lack the range, for interceptors and fighters or they lack the numbers, heavy bombers would fit this criteria, what is needed most is not a system to defeat aircraft, but one to keep enemy shipping far from one's own lands. ASW and AShMs, these are what are needed most. Without air support ships are put at great risk, but without SAM cover, and without ships suppressing coastal and land based air defenses, aircraft are not effective either. Use air assets for anti-missile defense as the most probable weapon to be used against you are long-range cruise missiles, but always be ready to counter enemy surface and sub-surface shipping. One other area of concern is the size of a buildup. Keep in mind that nations in the region are developing longer range UAV and UUV systems that could have the range to make air assets a viable solution to a traditionally sea dominated region. Would a token force be useful? Yes, it would slow an enemy advance, but care must be taken to balance the need to protect something with the cost of deployment and the allocation of funds to more useful measures.

Correct. The problem is, Philippines doesn't have anything at the present. They have to build up everything from scratch. That's the big issue here. They have the ground forces / marines, but just that with no support elements, so in practice, they can't be used until they develop those support forces.

 

[Aepsilons]

They are already doing all that, they are positioning themselves closer to the contested areas and they are preparing / enhancing their bases (and setting up new ones) in order to receive American forces. The main new location that is being set up is Oyster Bay, that will be the main location to deal with the contested territories. Subic is also getting ready for the American forces.

The thing is, the whole effort is about setting up locations for the American forces as well as the Philippino forces that will eventually be able to operate in the contested areas, but other than what the US forces can do, Philippines does not have the naval assets right now to operate themselves in the contested areas, so all that is preparation for when they actually get those assets. I would say 2 or 3 years at least until the have all the elements in place for a minimum force that can be projected into contested areas. Other than that, they rely on US forces.

Very regrettable how they allowed themselves to be in this situation after so many years of neglect of their military.

It just completely amazes me that a nation such as the Philippines (has the fastest economy right now in ASEAN, with a GDP of $456 Billion (considerable amount for the region) does not have air fighters with credible missile systems. I mean, the fact that they don't even have anti air missile platforms, or even anti ship missiles is just appalling.

It leads me to ask this (and i mean no disrespect from our Filipino friends): "What have you guys been doing these some 60 years since independence? Where have your defense spending allocations gone to? Why are you so outgunned?"

The Philippines has a larger economy than Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia combined. Yet it has a weaker military? I cannot understand this.

@Nihonjin1051 speaks much truth with his recommendation to build up SAM and air defense systems, and I would offer perhaps a more prudent course of action. While the best course is to maintain peace, if peace cannot be found or is not expected, than deterrence is the best way forward. In the SCS aircraft don't fly unless ships cover them. They either lack the range, for interceptors and fighters or they lack the numbers, heavy bombers would fit this criteria, what is needed most is not a system to defeat aircraft, but one to keep enemy shipping far from one's own lands. ASW and AShMs, these are what are needed most. Without air support ships are put at great risk, but without SAM cover, and without ships suppressing coastal and land based air defenses, aircraft are not effective either. Use air assets for anti-missile defense as the most probable weapon to be used against you are long-range cruise missiles, but always be ready to counter enemy surface and sub-surface shipping. One other area of concern is the size of a buildup. Keep in mind that nations in the region are developing longer range UAV and UUV systems that could have the range to make air assets a viable solution to a traditionally sea dominated region. Would a token force be useful? Yes, it would slow an enemy advance, but care must be taken to balance the need to protect something with the cost of deployment and the allocation of funds to more useful measures.

Hey @SvenSvensonov ,

Very good points. I agree with you of the importance of air cover to augment any naval force. Unfortunately, the Philippines does not even have an actual Air Fighter except Tora Tora planes (propellar). And these don't even have any credible missile capabilities. These would be picked off easily by China's Type 054, Type 052s. This is just very depressing.

 

[SvenSvensonov]

Correct. The problem is, Philippines doesn't have anything at the present. They have to build up everything from scratch. That's the big issue here. They have the ground forces / marines, but just that with no support elements, so in practice, they can't be used until they develop those support forces.

This might actually be a good thing. When existing infrastructure is in place, money is spend to upgrade or replace these systems, and of we take our focus off of altering our plans or seeing the world from a wider angle. The Philippines can take time, assess the best course of action based on what is available to them, based on what their potential adversaries are doing, and make the proper determination without needing to concentrate or shift their focus to other issues. Long-term, yes the lack of a buildup could be a problem is problems for the Philippines continue, though a buildup could also inflame tensions. But in the short-term it offers you a chance to conduct a much needed analysis of the situation and make the most appropriate actions.

 

[Carlosa]

Without the proper naval /air assets, everything else is all futile. There is quite a bit of distance from Pagasa to the mainland.

If the chinese decide to blockade the island like they are doing now with second thomas shoal, Philippinis can't do anything.

Its a very hopeless situation at the moment actually.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@Nihonjin1051 speaks much truth with his recommendation to build up SAM and air defense systems, and I would offer perhaps a more prudent course of action. While the best course is to maintain peace, if peace cannot be found or is not expected, than deterrence is the best way forward. In the SCS aircraft don't fly unless ships cover them. They either lack the range, for interceptors and fighters or they lack the numbers, heavy bombers would fit this criteria, what is needed most is not a system to defeat aircraft, but one to keep enemy shipping far from one's own lands. ASW and AShMs, these are what are needed most. Without air support ships are put at great risk, but without SAM cover, and without ships suppressing coastal and land based air defenses, aircraft are not effective either. Use air assets for anti-missile defense as the most probable weapon to be used against you are long-range cruise missiles, but always be ready to counter enemy surface and sub-surface shipping. One other area of concern is the size of a buildup. Keep in mind that nations in the region are developing longer range UAV and UUV systems that could have the range to make air assets a viable solution to a traditionally sea dominated region. Would a token force be useful? Yes, it would slow an enemy advance, but care must be taken to balance the need to protect something with the cost of deployment and the allocation of funds to more useful measures.

That would be the correct way forward for them.

It just completely amazes me that a nation such as the Philippines (has the fastest economy right now in ASEAN, with a GDP of $456 Billion (considerable amount for the region) does not have air fighters with credible missile systems. I mean, the fact that they don't even have anti air missile platforms, or even anti ship missiles is just appalling.

It leads me to ask this (and i mean no disrespect from our Filipino friends): "What have you guys been doing these some 60 years since independence? Where have your defense spending allocations gone to? Why are you so outgunned?"

The Philippines has a larger economy than Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia combined. Yet it has a weaker military? I cannot understand this.

They are making the same mistake we made for the past 200 years.

Every nation has an absolute duty to strengthen their armed forces.

 

[Carlosa]

It just completely amazes me that a nation such as the Philippines (has the fastest economy right now in ASEAN, with a GDP of $456 Billion (considerable amount for the region) does not have air fighters with credible missile systems. I mean, the fact that they don't even have anti air missile platforms, or even anti ship missiles is just appalling.

It leads me to ask this (and i mean no disrespect from our Filipino friends): "What have you guys been doing these some 60 years since independence? Where have your defense spending allocations gone to? Why are you so outgunned?"

The Philippines has a larger economy than Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia combined. Yet it has a weaker military? I cannot understand this.

I feel the same way, but its not just what you said, its actually worse because Philippines actually had the first air force in southeast asia and they had quite a bit of planes; they also had a decent navy and they let it all go out the window.

They concentrated themselves in a ground army dedicated to counter insurgency and allowed everything else to decay and be retired.

 

[Carlosa]

This might actually be a good thing. When existing infrastructure is in place, money is spend to upgrade or replace these systems, and of we take our focus off of altering our plans or seeing the world from a wider angle. The Philippines can take time, assess the best course of action based on what is available to them, based on what their potential adversaries are doing, and make the proper determination without needing to concentrate or shift their focus to other issues. Long-term, yes the lack of a buildup could be a problem is problems for the Philippines continue, though a buildup could also inflame tensions. But in the short-term it offers you a chance to conduct a much needed analysis of the situation and make the most appropriate actions.

Don't forget that by not having the assets, that's how they lost Scarborough Shoal, they only had one cutter that could not stay on location for long.

You have a point, but keep in mind that we are talking about building up the very basic assets that everybody else already have. The needed build up is so basic that could hardly be considered threatening by anybody and time is not working for the Philippines, they could easily lose more reefs / islands any moment.

 

[Aepsilons]

I feel the same way, but its not just what you said, its actually worse because Philippines actually had the first air force in southeast asia and they had quite a bit of planes; they also had a decent navy and they let it all go out the window.

They concentrated themselves in a ground army dedicated to counter insurgency and allowed everything else to decay and be retired.

I think this is the reason why the Philippines has tried to 'augment' the situation by expanding on their Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States (promulgated in 2002) to allow US Forces to occupy any other Filipino military base throughout their islands. But , in my opinion, this is only a short term solution to a gargantuan failure of strategic visage.

The problem, root, is the shear fact that their defense expenditure is too small or they are diverting capital to the wrong segment. They should focus on high quality arms purchases. And this must be done at least in 5 years time. So far, the only things they purchased are two 40 some year old cutters from the US Coast Guard. And these don't even have anti ship missiles, or even proper anti air capabilities.

Vietnam's 4 Tarantul Class Missile Boats could sink these 2 "frigates" easily. And with impunity. That's shows to our Philippine friends in their failure in arms purchases. They have to purchase new and higher quality deals with long term gains. They need to do this soon as possible. They have to break away from the culture of introversion. GIven, i admit that they are probably used to dealing with internal crisis as that was the priority of their previous governments; dealing with communist separatists and muslim insurgents in the south. At the cost of their territorial defense ; and air and naval procurements.