Taiwan Conducts Live Fire Drills on Spratlys, Angering Vietnam

[Carlosa]

I think this is the reason why the Philippines has tried to 'augment' the situation by expanding on their Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States (promulgated in 2002) to allow US Forces to occupy any other Filipino military base throughout their islands. But , in my opinion, this is only a short term solution to a gargantuan failure of strategic visage.

The problem, root, is the shear fact that their defense expenditure is too small or they are diverting capital to the wrong segment. They should focus on high quality arms purchases. And this must be done at least in 5 years time. So far, the only things they purchased are two 40 some year old cutters from the US Coast Guard. And these don't even have anti ship missiles, or even proper anti air capabilities.

Vietnam's 4 Tarantul Class Missile Boats could sink these 2 "frigates" easily. And with impunity. That's shows to our Philippine friends in their failure in arms purchases. They have to purchase new and higher quality deals with long term gains. They need to do this soon as possible. They have to break away from the culture of introversion. GIven, i admit that they are probably used to dealing with internal crisis as that was the priority of their previous governments; dealing with communist separatists and muslim insurgents in the south. At the cost of their territorial defense ; and air and naval procurements.

Its an incredible case of nothing else than incompetence and negligence in an amazing scale. PERIOD.

And even now, they are not taking the best decisions and I think corruption has a hand in it.

They need short term solutions, that's urgent, but what are they doing:

They had made a deal to buy 2 second hand Maestrale class frigates from Italy that actually are pretty good and were ready for delivery. At the last moment they canceled the deal because "we feel the maintenance cost will be higher than for new ships", so they made a deal with South Korea for new ships that of course will take far longer, a couple of years at the least. Obviously the Koreans padded someone's pocket.

They bought 12 FA-50 planes from S. Korea, that plane is a glorified trainer on steroids. Its not up to the task, its better than nothing, but all other options would be better. They should it have bought second hand F-16's from USA and that would be a better plane, cheaper and sooner. Obviously the Koreans are in control here.

The situation was already bad enough, but they are still able to continue to make bad decisions.

How long do they need to wait until they install anti ship missiles in those 2 Hamilton cutters? Its amazing!

"Failure in arms purchases" as you said is an understatement.

And lets not even talk about the fact that kicking out the American bases from the Philippines is what in the end allowed the chinese to move into the area.

Sorry, but its a hopeless situation because of their own making. They totally depend on USA and as I said before, USA will only act based on their own self interest.

 

[Aepsilons]

And lets not even talk about the fact that kicking out the American bases from the Philippines is what in the end allowed the chinese to move into the area.

This was probably the worst decision they ever made, period. Anyways, its good we're making these constructive criticisms. I just want to point out that I'm not trying to put down the Philippines, Filipino people, I'm only trying to give an objective analysis on the overall equation.

But as we have mentioned in this discussion, at least they're making necessary improvements. However it is what it is.

As one who has been to the Philippines plenty of times and one who has a number of Filipino colleagues and friends in my personal life, I have all respect and admiration for their people, culture. I just wish that their government would do them greater service by being more transparent in policy, as well as be more accountable and responsible in any policy decisions.

 

[Carlosa]

This was probably the worst decision they ever made, period. Anyways, its good we're making these constructive criticisms. I just want to point out that I'm not trying to put down the Philippines, Filipino people, I'm only trying to give an objective analysis on the overall equation.

But as we have mentioned in this discussion, at least they're making necessary improvements. However it is what it is.

As one who has been to the Philippines plenty of times and one who has a number of Filipino colleagues and friends in my personal life, I have all respect and admiration for their people, culture. I just wish that their government would do them greater service by being more transparent in policy, as well as be more accountable and responsible in any policy decisions.

I totally agree with you. We are talking about the military situation in the Philippines, it has nothing to do with them as a people or as a country. I also like the people there and I used to have Filipino friends when I was living in USA.

Yes, they are starting to rearm, finally, its really too little too late, but better later than never and anyway, the best thing that they did was the new pact to bring US forces back; USA's presence is the only thing preventing China from taking over the remaining reefs in the area.

 

[mike2000]

It just completely amazes me that a nation such as the Philippines (has the fastest economy right now in ASEAN, with a GDP of $456 Billion (considerable amount for the region) does not have air fighters with credible missile systems. I mean, the fact that they don't even have anti air missile platforms, or even anti ship missiles is just appalling.

It leads me to ask this (and i mean no disrespect from our Filipino friends): "What have you guys been doing these some 60 years since independence? Where have your defense spending allocations gone to? Why are you so outgunned?"

The Philippines has a larger economy than Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia combined. Yet it has a weaker military? I cannot understand this.




Hey @SvenSvensonov ,

Very good points. I agree with you of the importance of air cover to augment any naval force. Unfortunately, the Philippines does not even have an actual Air Fighter except Tora Tora planes (propellar). And these don't even have any credible missile capabilities. These would be picked off easily by China's Type 054, Type 052s. This is just very depressing.

I agreee with you on this. Thats exactly the point me and one other vietnamese member on here made a long time ago on here in another thread about the Philippines ill preparedness, but one philippinos member on here got mad at us for pointing out that they are far behind/backward in their military prepardness.

The philippines indeed is a special/unique case., since despite being one of americas closest ally in Asia for over half a century its still has the most weak/ill equiped military in south east Asia, whereas during the 1960s-early 80s it had one of the most advanced/powerful military in the region.

The Philippines' acute military weakness is a reflection of many factors, including an excessive strategic orientation towards internal threats such as insurgency and terrorism, chronic under-investment in military modernization, high levels of official corruption in military procurements, and most of all a heavy strategic reliance on treaty allies such as the US.

Two decades after the closure of American bases in the country, the Philippines has failed to establish even a minimum deterrence capability. Its indeed troubling, hopefully the country will take its destiny into its own handsand learn from countries like Vietnam who despite having a far far smaller GDP/economy than the Philippines for decades now, still has a far better equipped military than them.

 

[Cossack25A1]

Its an incredible case of nothing else than incompetence and negligence in an amazing scale. PERIOD.

And even now, they are not taking the best decisions and I think corruption has a hand in it.

They need short term solutions, that's urgent, but what are they doing:

They had made a deal to buy 2 second hand Maestrale class frigates from Italy that actually are pretty good and were ready for delivery. At the last moment they canceled the deal because "we feel the maintenance cost will be higher than for new ships", so they made a deal with South Korea for new ships that of course will take far longer, a couple of years at the least. Obviously the Koreans padded someone's pocket.

They bought 12 FA-50 planes from S. Korea, that plane is a glorified trainer on steroids. Its not up to the task, its better than nothing, but all other options would be better. They should it have bought second hand F-16's from USA and that would be a better plane, cheaper and sooner. Obviously the Koreans are in control here.

The situation was already bad enough, but they are still able to continue to make bad decisions.

How long do they need to wait until they install anti ship missiles in those 2 Hamilton cutters? Its amazing!

"Failure in arms purchases" as you said is an understatement.

And lets not even talk about the fact that kicking out the American bases from the Philippines is what in the end allowed the chinese to move into the area.

Sorry, but its a hopeless situation because of their own making. They totally depend on USA and as I said before, USA will only act based on their own self interest.

Well, at least you get a picture on what happens when misguided nationalism is mixed with foreign policy... which is the "in-thing" for Philippine politicians.

I just don't understand why some are hesitant in buying arms that is not made from the USA because we will only end up with "hands-me-down" weapons. We may even get decent weapons from Russia (like the BMP-3, BMP-T and BTR-T) or even other European, South American, Indian and possibly even Chinese weapons (though I doubt on this last one considering the present situation), but the common complain is that most of those weapons are non-NATO standard weapon.

Aside from misguided nationalism, extreme racial nationalism, particularly the "Pinoy Pride" to the point that we are embarrassing ourselves to the international stage. What does this line line has something to do with Spratlys? Well if you combine Misguided Nationalism, Extreme Racial Nationalism and weak military force due to obstructive politicians, then saber-rattle a regional power and you have a recipe for disaster and butt-hurt drama from the PH side.

 

[Cossack25A1]

Is the Philippine Armed Forces ready in such an event that happens? Are the Philippine Marines and Philippine Army ready or have such contingency plans in the event an outbreak occurs?

If diplomacy fails and war breaks out, the PH military would likely do everything to repel an attack even if it is in favor of China or Taiwan, though many Filipinos would expect that our politicians would likely escape to other countries, particularly the USA, leaving the civilians and soldiers to fend off a hostile foe.

It leads me to ask this (and i mean no disrespect from our Filipino friends): "What have you guys been doing these some 60 years since independence? Where have your defense spending allocations gone to? Why are you so outgunned?"

The politicians playing the "victim card", saying that we will be enslaved by *insert powerful country here* as like what Spain, USA and Japan had.

Another possible reason, we were feeling cozy when American bases where still here that we likely "forgot" to update our weapons - while Marcos did somehow developed the country during his first term up to the Martial Law years which during those time we have a powerful (or at least well-equipped) military, it is possibly the said Martial Law that led to the local people's distrust to the military that it was neglected and was worsened by faulty economy in the 1980s.

Aside from the leftist groups that are crying "American Imperialism," for some unknown reason, in 1991, the Philippine politicians suddenly had a "nationalistic" urge to make a vote that will kick out the US bases in the Philippines by taking cue from a certain volcano.

In the mid-1990s, under the Ramos administration, there were plans to update the PH military's capability but the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis hit, adding to this is the corruption allegation against the Ramos administration. There were no updates on the Estrada administration as during those time, the PH military was busy hammering the Abu Sayyaf group, then came the so-called EDSA Revolt 2001 which installed the Arroyo administration that led to a see-saw/roller-coaster experience for the PH in economy and policy - local and foreign.

Worse, in 2005, the last batch of PH Air Force's Northrop F-5 were decommissioned, leaving the PH without any effective air weapon and our navy has vintage assets.

Had the 2013 Taiwanese fisherman incident went from bad to worse, Taiwan could effectively take Manila by simply having air-superiority. And with the live-fire drills made by Taiwan recently, well, the ROC Army could defeat us if misguided policies were enforced and followed by PH politicians, worse if China's PLA "supports" such act by Taiwan.

 

[Cossack25A1]

Nothing personal mate.

I want to know your opinions on my legal analysis.

Does the arbitral tribunal have jurisdiction (authority to give legally binding ruling) over the dispute?

If they do and the Philippines wins its case, will it legally trigger the US-Philippines MDT?

Most Chinese members think my analysis is just for trolling them. But if my analysis is correct, it has some very interesting legal consequences!!

It would be end game for us. If this happens, will the US get involved as they are getting busy on issues about Russia and ISIS and the China holds most of US debts... and that Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are strategically more valuable than us.

 

[cirr]

Taiwan must do this sort of thing on a regular basis。

 

[Aepsilons]

It would be end game for us. If this happens, will the US get involved as they are getting busy on issues about Russia and ISIS and the China holds most of US debts... and that Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are strategically more valuable than us.

I try to be objective and analyze the situation through the lens of a specific nation. So when I analyze the situation the Philippines is involved, I try to see it in the lens of the Philippines. No doubt your country has made credible strides in recent years. However, one has to realize that the Philippines needs to improve internal development processes. There are still so many domestic issues needing solvency: 1) corruption issues, 2) the development of Mindanao, 3) rebuilding Leyte-Samar, 4) developing infrastructure of underdeveloped provinces, 5) improving the military capabilities.

All of these are realities and all of these require the immediate attention of the Philippine Congress, Senate, and the Philippine Executive Branch. To top it off, your country needs to adjudicate the issue of the ARR in the south and to finalize resettlement procedures for displaced individuals in Davao, Cagayan de Oro, Lanao Del Sur/ Norte, Basilan, Jolo etc All of these are pressing matters.

What the Philippines needs is to improve the economic condition of its people and it must continue its economic growth rate at 7% level for the next decade. The Philippines is already Japan's #1 FDI recipient in the ASEAN region. Japan has now, effectively, built and called the Philippines as home to over 1,300 Japanese businesses. In order to profit from this investment, we need to understand and be confident on the stability of the Philippines; at the same time, the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos whom we employ depend on Japanese businesses to remain in the Philippines (generating billions of dollars in revenue). Right? So , it makes sense that war rhetoric between China and Philippines must tone down; its just simply bad for business.

The Philippines should capitalize on the situation. By securing more Japanese FDI, it develops. By toning rhetoric with China, it will positively influence Beijing's relations with Manila. What does this translate into? Greater Chinese economic cooperation with Philippines, increase in Chinese tourists to the Philippines. At the same time, this provides the Philippines the ample time to develop domestically and militarily. The military development will be used to secure Manila's resources, used to combat insurgents, as well as provide the basis to realize its Initiative of building a "Credible Defense Force".

Pragmatism must be employed. And I have confidence in the Philippines. These constructive dialogue , in the end, result in positive and effective policies and procedures.

 

[Viet]

the decision of the philippine lawmakers to close US bases was a big strategic mistake.

 

[pigtaker]

the decision of the philippine lawmakers to close US bases was a big strategic mistake.

you can invite US or india to open a bese in vietnam, We don't mind.

 

[Viet]

you can invite US or india to open a bese in vietnam, We don't mind.

not necessary at this stage. thing has calmed down, both china and vietnam have agreed to return to negotiating table.
should you play foul and resort to violence, you can assume we will escalate the conflict, too.

 

[Aepsilons]

If diplomacy fails and war breaks out, the PH military would likely do everything to repel an attack even if it is in favor of China or Taiwan, though many Filipinos would expect that our politicians would likely escape to other countries, particularly the USA, leaving the civilians and soldiers to fend off a hostile foe.

Let us hope that it will never have to come to this.

 

[Cossack25A1]

I try to be objective and analyze the situation through the lens of a specific nation. So when I analyze the situation the Philippines is involved, I try to see it in the lens of the Philippines. No doubt your country has made credible strides in recent years. However, one has to realize that the Philippines needs to improve internal development processes. There are still so many domestic issues needing solvency: 1) corruption issues, 2) the development of Mindanao, 3) rebuilding Leyte-Samar, 4) developing infrastructure of underdeveloped provinces, 5) improving the military capabilities.

All of these are realities and all of these require the immediate attention of the Philippine Congress, Senate, and the Philippine Executive Branch. To top it off, your country needs to adjudicate the issue of the ARR in the south and to finalize resettlement procedures for displaced individuals in Davao, Cagayan de Oro, Lanao Del Sur/ Norte, Basilan, Jolo etc All of these are pressing matters.

What the Philippines needs is to improve the economic condition of its people and it must continue its economic growth rate at 7% level for the next decade. The Philippines is already Japan's #1 FDI recipient in the ASEAN region. Japan has now, effectively, built and called the Philippines as home to over 1,300 Japanese businesses. In order to profit from this investment, we need to understand and be confident on the stability of the Philippines; at the same time, the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos whom we employ depend on Japanese businesses to remain in the Philippines (generating billions of dollars in revenue). Right? So , it makes sense that war rhetoric between China and Philippines must tone down; its just simply bad for business.

The Philippines should capitalize on the situation. By securing more Japanese FDI, it develops. By toning rhetoric with China, it will positively influence Beijing's relations with Manila. What does this translate into? Greater Chinese economic cooperation with Philippines, increase in Chinese tourists to the Philippines. At the same time, this provides the Philippines the ample time to develop domestically and militarily. The military development will be used to secure Manila's resources, used to combat insurgents, as well as provide the basis to realize its Initiative of building a "Credible Defense Force".

Pragmatism must be employed. And I have confidence in the Philippines. These constructive dialogue , in the end, result in positive and effective policies and procedures.

One thing that is hampering the development of the PH as a whole is the centralized nature of government - everything is influenced by "Imperial Manila" (even though I am from Manila, this is very true) that development of the said city comes at the expense of "ignoring" the rest. A solution is a Federal system where the government is less centralized but this alone is not enough as changes must also come from the people themselves, to elect the right leader. Problem is that many "lawyers" are running the show...even in positions that has less relevance to their profession (like an attorney running a government agency that deals with transportation?).

As for the economy side, we should have remove the 60/40 economic restriction to let direct foreign investments but also must be careful on not to kill local industry, also, we should let all foreigners to invest here, meaning that politics must be segregated from economic policies.

If these changes were made, then we could look for a better military force. If the US Navy's Millennium Challenge 2002 is to be examined carefully, this would show that having large ships is no really necessary - we could acquire frigates but we should look at missile boats. For some unknown reason though, while we could have defeated local insurgent groups such as the Communist NPA (in fact this had been done, when the communist group "Hukbalahap" were finally suppressed, ironically through diplomacy and compromise aside from firepower), at present, they have not been destroyed, from the Marcos up to the Aquino II administration.

Alas, most politicians here care more about their image and how they would be viewed on history books while the upper echelon of the military is highly politicized. The PH politicians actually have to wait for incident such as China's views on Spratly Islands and now this issue about Taiwan flexing its muscles over Spratly Islands just to make a move on modernizing the AFP.

 

[Viet]

Let us hope that it will never have to come to this.

the philippine navy/airforce have zero chance if china resorts to violent means and take the shoals/islands.

as far as I know, the US-PN defence treaty does not cover the south china sea, or west philippine sea. that is the reason why chinese navy becomes increasingly aggressive in the region. I´m afraid, at the moment, nothing can stop the chinese.