Taiwan Conducts Live Fire Drills on Spratlys, Angering Vietnam

[Cossack25A1]

I don't know if the US will intervention or not.

If you're interested, you can check my two previous posts that summarised my analysis.

What I was arguing is that there is a good chance that the tribunal will declare jurisdiction over the dispute, at least for some of those reefs that are submerged underwater. And if they declare this, the Philippines will have a good chance to win it's case because China will not be at the tribunal to defend itself.

And if the Philippines wins, it would legally trigger your MDT with the US because China would be officially regarded as illegally occupying your territory/EEZ under international law.

Then the US will need to decide whether to intervene or to ignore their MDT obligation. Now that is an interesting question.



Yes, and that is one disadvantage that China has put itself into. While the Philippines asked for a representative judge/arbitrator that they know would be favourable to them, China gets a representative Judge appointed randomly by the ICJ judge.

Whatever may the result be, it would just worsen the situation as in the end, it would end up as a geopolitical struggle between China and USA though how the Americans will act depends if they (its people) are willing to send boots here when situation goes "hot" specially now that Republicans are in control of their Congress...

 

[bolo]

It would be end game for us. If this happens, will the US get involved as they are getting busy on issues about Russia and ISIS and the China holds most of US debts... and that Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are strategically more valuable than us.

China isn't going to invade PN even if PN has no military, which is not the case. Let's say the US implodes. Japanese will be the first to invade PN. The Vietcong will just take up the small reefs/islands currently owned by PN.
Btw, how come Pinoys are not angry at Viet for taking PN islands in the 70s?

 

[Aepsilons]

China isn't going to invade PN even if PN has no military, which is not the case. Let's say the US implodes. Japanese will be the first to invade PN. The Vietcong will just take up the small reefs/islands currently owned by PN.
Btw, how come Pinoys are not angry at Viet for taking PN islands in the 70s?

I'd like to know why you think Japan would invade the Philippines? Please be specific. Give me a Cost-Benefits Analysis.

To inform you, Japan already prioritizes the Philippines as our #1 Recipient of Japanese FDI in the ASEAN region. They are our manufacturing and industrial hub. We've assets there, multi-billion dollar projects, based in Cebu City, Mandaue City, Cagayan De Oro, Davao City, Bacolod City, Iloilo City, Manila, Angeles City. We've financed major port developments in the Philippines since the 1970s, and this has been carefully planned because Philippines has always been the preferred manufacturing site for Japanese offshore companies (second only to China).

An invasion of the Philippines would, effectively, lead to the damage of our massive investments in the country. Let alone, endanger the lives of some of our 150,000 Japanese citizens that live in the Philippines

 

[Aepsilons]

Perhaps Philipines thought that US would come for their back up.
But I absolutely agree with your comments.China is much powerful and Philipines did a folly by expanding the game.

No nation wants a war or dreams of war. But one should always prepare for emergencies , and have the systems in place to react when the time arises. Unfortunately, the Philippines has been in want. But to be fair and honest, Philippines is not the only country that is seen in this; there are other countries around the world that have sacrificed military growth for other sectors. And this a lesson to learn. Never compromise security sectors.

 

[SrNair]

No nation wants a war or dreams of war. But one should always prepare for emergencies , and have the systems in place to react when the time arises. Unfortunately, the Philippines has been in want. But to be fair and honest, Philippines is not the only country that is seen in this; there are other countries around the world that have sacrificed military growth for other sectors. And this a lesson to learn. Never compromise security sectors.

You are right .No nation can compromise security sector.But dont be security nervous nation like US that spend so much for security.

 

[Cossack25A1]

China isn't going to invade PN even if PN has no military, which is not the case. Let's say the US implodes. Japanese will be the first to invade PN. The Vietcong will just take up the small reefs/islands currently owned by PN.
Btw, how come Pinoys are not angry at Viet for taking PN islands in the 70s?

Back when South Vietnam took some of the islands back in the 70s, the only reason why the PH never went "loud" about that issue is because of the Vietnam War due to South Vietnam being allied to US though after the war, I do not know why we are quiet about it

 

[Rechoice]

Back when South Vietnam took some of the islands back in the 70s, the only reason why the PH never went "loud" about that issue is because of the Vietnam War due to South Vietnam being allied to US though after the war, I do not know why we are quiet about it

we taken back our Island from PN in 70s, The island Northeast Cay, is still occupied by PN. we will take back in future peacefully with our historical legacies.

Mark stone of Vietnam's sovereignty on Island Northeast Cay.