Syrian Arab Army drops leaflets in Idlib which call for reconciliation

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Neither will RU...

I'm not so sure. Russia is eager to tests their new weapons. It's a big market out there still waiting to be tapped.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

It's not Assad who is in control. It's Putin who is in control. Of course, if revolution made peace with Russia, Russia would have supported the revolution because they are friendly with Israel. Revolution declared war on Russia. That was the fatal mistake. The same mistake Napoleon made. The same mistake Hitler made. Assad would have been gone years ago if revolution did not declare war on Russia.

Putin has great influence but he is not in control of all events (far from it) on the ground. Russian involvement is too small for him to have such power. Syria, while not being the largest state in the world, is no Qatar for instance or Kuwait which you can easily control even from a far away.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Putin has great influence but he is not in control of all events (far from it) on the ground. Russian involvement is too small for him to have such power. Syria, while not being the largest state in the world, is no Qatar for instance or Kuwait which you can easily control even from a far away.

SAA won't attack anyone without Putin's approval. Bank on it. Everything SAA uses is supplied by Russia. Russia is SAA's life line.

Russian involvement is too small for him to have such power. Syria,

It's not about how many people. It's about technology. Russia technology is second to none on this planet. Rebels quit when they see Russians come their way. You know Thor? You know how many people Thor can beat up? That is the power of technology.

 

[HannibalBarca]

The question is will the local groups (doing all the fighting) on behalf of Turkey be able to count on Turkey when shit hits the fan this (relatively) deep into Syria when Turkish involvement (troops) has been relatively minimal outside of direct border towns such as Afrin but even there most of the fighting was done by FSA and other related groups?

We all remember the "Aleppo betrayal and fiasco" so if history is our witness the answer here is no.

If so, all of SDF/US controlled Eastern Syria will have free hands. Turkey's influence will remain confined to that tiny part of Syria seen on the second map in post 0 in this thread.

Also, realistically speaking (as long as Russia is involved and going nowhere and SAA having the momentum and power) Idlib will most likely be conquered and when shit hits the fan those "pro-Turkey" groups in Syria will easily fragment and some will defect to SAA or escape/run away as seen recently in Southern Syria.

The revolution was for the taking but the opportunity (for now) was wasted years ago. In fact in the first 2-3 years where those nations that most strongly supported the opposition are to blame for as they betrayed the opposition thinking that they could do as little as possible and get as little messy hands as possible. Turkey's policy in particular massively failed on this front and their burden is the greatest for those directly involved due to sharing a large border.

Similar to KSA in Yemen. When you neighbor a country directly you take most of the "negatives" of a conflict that you are a part of yourself. Case in point the Farsi Mullah's and their involvement in Yemen. They have little to loose as they don't border Yemen and don't host a single Yemeni refugee. Easy to smuggle weapons into the Houthi terrorist cult or some advisers.

So if you involve yourself and gamble you should go all in in such situations otherwise you will suffer the consequences. If KSA had acted earlier in Yemen and stopped tolerating the Houthi terrorist cult for this long, the current situation would not have occurred.

The Difference with the Aleppo Scenario, is that TR wasn't as involved as right now...
She got Observation points all around Idlib...Therefore making a move, will mean to shoot those OP to advance...
Second, TR put too much with those 2 previous operation in Al Bab and Afrin.
And Last, she is somehow isolated on the International scene... Like RU few years ago... and RU found a good alternative to reemerge on the International maiden...by siding with ASSad + Full support.

I don't even mention the massive exodus that will happen at the TR border... those 4Mil in TR are nothing compared to what will happen...

In the End, Many may think that TR could exchange Idlib, or at least some part of it, and keep the North corridor... But we all know that is only temporary and They also knows it...

SAA won't attack anyone without Putin's approval. Bank on it. Everything SAA uses is supplied by Russia. Russia is SAA's life line.



It's not about how many people. It's about technology. Rebels quit when they see Russians come their way. You know Thor? You know how many people Thor can beat up? That is the power of technology.

RU isn't a "King maker" anymore in Syria... They are losing "influence" because, many think that is almost "over". Therefore those who bowed to RU in the first hours for help...don't think it's necessary anymore... Discontent already arise in the Pro-ASSad side, where RU is sometimes portrayed as "THE" element that is blocking the End Of the conflict (aka RU-TR relationship/Idlib/North Syria). Heck you don't even see Putin Face next to ASSad that often anymore... in the First hours of RU help...Putin Face was at many occassion "Bigger" than ASSad ones...

Hardcore Pro-RU groups are playing the free electron, like the Tiger Forces... and so on...

Even RU-Israeli relationship is being questioned...

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Even RU-Israeli relationship is being questioned...

They never had a relationship. Tell me when was the last time Israel ever bought a single piece of military hardware from Russia? When?

 

[HannibalBarca]

They never had a relationship. Tell me when was the last time Israel ever bought a single piece of military hardware from Russia? When?

The RU-ISR relationship the past week, on the GOlan situation per exemple... Where IR actions were praised and encouraged. BUt when RU proposed a solution/mediation to end it, many in power, questioned RU "loyalty" to the conflict...
In the End thay had to accept, to restrain and push back Any Hezb/IR forces 30-50km away from ISR border... and let it be controlled by RU...

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The RU-ISR relationship the past week, on the GOlan situation per exemple... Where IR actions were praised and encouraged. BUt when RU proposed a solution/mediation to end it, many in power, questioned RU "loyalty" to the conflict...
In the End thay had to accept, to restrain and push back Any Hezb/IR forces 30-50km away from ISR border... and let it be controlled by RU...

And it was the wise thing to do. These days technology wins wars. Israel has F-35. What does Iran have?

 

[Saif al-Arab]

The Difference with the Aleppo Scenario, is that TR wasn't as involved as right now...
She got Observation points all around Idlib...Therefore making a move, will mean to shoot those OP to advance...
Second, TR put too much with those 2 previous operation in Al Bab and Afrin.
And Last, she is somehow isolated on the International scene... Like RU few years ago... and RU found a good alternative to reemerge on the International maiden...by siding with ASSad + Full support.

I don't even mention the massive exodus that will happen at the TR border... those 4Mil in TR are nothing compared to what will happen...

In the End, Many may think that TR could exchange Idlib, or at least some part of it, and keep the North corridor... But we all know that is only temporary and They also knows it...

There are different opinions about that. If you ask certain Syrian opposition groups and Syrians abroad they will talk about betrayal of the "cause" and I don't blame them. Their fate was less important than Kurdish/SDF "threats" against Turkey.

I don't think SAA would care to be honest with you. They are on their own home turf, battle hardened after 7 years of war, will always have the numerical advantage and I doubt that Russia will tolerate a full-scale Turkish onslaught on the Idlib region. Turkish soldiers have been killed in Syria before as well. This is war.

Al-Assad and SAA will not step aside when they have all the advantage, momentum and political will to reconquer this part of Syria.

Who says that this will occur? Turkey can deny them access. Problem solved.

Yes, we will find out about it but the "Syrian opposition dream" has long ended I am afraid and the blame lies in that opposition and its backers who did not "want it enough" and made wrong calculations.

Best example is Erdogan policies in Syria. They have been a failure by large no matter how you look at it.

Had he kept out there would be no "Kurdish threat" today. But he wanted to become the new "Sultan" (failed from the first day) and pissed the US off and today the Turkish valuta and economy is collapsing or at least very hard hit and US gained a foothold deep inside Syria, something unthinkable prior to 2011. Aiding Kurds just across the Iraqi border as well (Al-Assad base). I am glad that KSA stopped its involvement in Syria ages ago. 2014 was the last year that there was real support for Syrian opposition fractions. Nowadays it is humanitarian aid and dealings in SDF controlled Syria among the tribes there.

Obviously the Yemen war had something to do with this as well. It gained the priority long ago.

Jordanian involvement (while never great) in the past 4-5 years has also been mostly to defend the border and prevent Jordan from being flooded with more Syrian refugees as Jordan does not have close to the same resources, land, economy or size as Turkey despite hosting almost as many refugees. Similar with Lebanon.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

There are different opinions about that. If you ask certain Syrian opposition groups and Syrians abroad they will talk about betrayal of the "cause" and I don't blame them. Their fate was less important than Kurdish/SDF "threats" against Turkey.

I don't think SAA would care to be honest with you. They are on their own home turf, battle hardened after 7 years of war, will always have the numerical advantage and I doubt that Russia will tolerate a full-scale Turkish onslaught on the Idlib region. Turkish soldiers have been killed in Syria before as well. This is war.

Al-Assad and SAA will not step aside when they have all the advantage, momentum and political will to reconquer this part of Syria.

Who says that this will occur? Turkey can deny them access. Problem solved.

Yes, we will find out about it but the "Syrian opposition dream" has long ended I am afraid and the blame lies in that opposition and its backers who did not "want it enough" and made wrong calculations.

Best example is Erdogan policies in Syria. They have been a failure by large no matter how you look at it.

Had he kept out there would be no "Kurdish threat" today. But he wanted to become the new "Sultan" (failed from the first day) and pissed the US off and today the Turkish valuta and economy is collapsing or at least very hard hit and US gained a foothold deep inside Syria, something unthinkable prior to 2011. Aiding Kurds just across the Iraqi border as well (Al-Assad base). I am glad that KSA stopped its involvement in Syria ages ago. 2014 was the last year that there was real support for Syrian opposition fractions. Nowadays it is humanitarian aid and dealings in SDF controlled Syria among the tribes there.

Obviously the Yemen war had something to do with this as well. It gained the priority long ago.

Jordanian involvement (while never great) in the past 4-5 years has also been mostly to defend the border and prevent Jordan from being flooded with more Syrian refugees as Jordan does not have close to the same resources, land, economy or size as Turkey despite hosting almost as many refugees. Similar with Lebanon.

Russia is vital to Turkey economy. Idlib has nothing to offer Turkey other than headache. Under UN law, one state cannot annex part of another state. Turkey cannot annex northern Syria. It is in Turkey's interest to let SAA take back northern Syria and repair relation between Turkey and Syria.

Lavrov was in Turkey today. You will soon see what they have planned for Idlib.

 

[HannibalBarca]

And it was the wise thing to do. These days technology wins wars. Israel has F-35. What does Iran have?

it doesn't matter what IR have or not... or Whatever it was the right or wrong thing to do.
In a civil war... you need the ppl behind you... even for Dictators...
So, if a "Support force" like RU, "Seems" to be playing on both sides or block what you wish...Then frustration arise... And that " Support Force" could get himself with less "Influence"...
And it's all you need to start/make a mistake... You need only a rogue"unit" to start a confrontation that no side want...

Let's say, TR and RU got a Deal on Idlib... That no one will advance or take it by force... and 2 days later...you find yourself with a Unit (that disliked the deal) Firing and engaging on the ground... That will be answered and so on...Till everyone is involved in a full scale operation...
Then What RU words will mean? Nothing... and therefore it will be chaos all over again...

There are different opinions about that. If you ask certain Syrian opposition groups and Syrians abroad they will talk about betrayal of the "cause" and I don't blame them. Their fate was less important than Kurdish/SDF "threats" against Turkey.

I don't think SAA would care to be honest with you. They are on their own home turf, battle hardened after 7 years of war, will always have the numerical advantage and I doubt that Russia will tolerate a full-scale Turkish onslaught on the Idlib region. Turkish soldiers have been killed in Syria before as well. This is war.

Al-Assad and SAA will not step aside when they have all the advantage, momentum and political will to reconquer this part of Syria.

Who says that this will occur? Turkey can deny them access. Problem solved.

Yes, we will find out about it but the "Syrian opposition dream" has long ended I am afraid and the blame lies in that opposition and its backers who did not "want it enough" and made wrong calculations.

Best example is Erdogan policies in Syria. They have been a failure by large no matter how you look at it.

Had he kept out there would be no "Kurdish threat" today. But he wanted to become the new "Sultan" (failed from the first day) and pissed the US off and today the Turkish valuta and economy is collapsing or at least very hard hit and US gained a foothold deep inside Syria, something unthinkable prior to 2011. Aiding Kurds just across the Iraqi border as well (Al-Assad base). I am glad that KSA stopped its involvement in Syria ages ago. 2014 was the last year that there was real support for Syrian opposition fractions. Nowadays it is humanitarian aid and dealings in SDF controlled Syria among the tribes there.

Obviously the Yemen war had something to do with this as well. It gained the priority long ago.

Jordanian involvement (while never great) in the past 4-5 years has also been mostly to defend the border and prevent Jordan from being flooded with more Syrian refugees as Jordan does not have close to the same resources, land, economy or size as Turkey despite hosting almost as many refugees. Similar with Lebanon.

Yes Aleppo is seen as some sort of Betrayal, not only to Syrian outside, but even among Rebels, and HTS animosity toward TR is also made of this event.
Yes, I also Think SAA+allies will advance on Idlib, They need it to legitimize their "position".
Yes, RU can't do anything about it, in this current situation, they lost enough "influence" to keep the dogs on leash.
Yes, TR strategy in Syria isn't good, I believe they could have done better, but I also understand that, they couldn't forecast the Syrian roller coaster... with RU involvement, that tipped the balance and ISIS loose in the East, that gave YPG free movement... They didn't react in Time after those changes and got behind the train...
I believe, When the wind begun to change, They hoped that by letting go of the Syrian conflict, they could go back in time... But things didn't went as planned...
YPG was growing/ISIS declining/Rebels too... so They had to get a new purpose/position in this conflict... and it begun with the Al Bab op against ISIS... till what we have today...

And now, they are back to Zero... "Letting go of the Syrian Conflict" and hope things goes back to normal... or "Continue at all cost" and hope for the best...

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Yes Aleppo is seen as some sort of Betrayal

Aleppo is a must have for Assad. It has the old city which has the castle and the mosque. Important for tourism. Makes money. Buy MiG-29. Tourism is the biggest industry in Syria.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Aleppo is a must have for Assad. It has the old city which has the castle and the mosque. Important for tourism. Makes money. Buy MiG-29. Tourism is the biggest industry in Syria.

Aleppo "importance" is not about "Tourism" or "Mosques"...it's about Symbolism...
Aleppo was the biggest/most important center of this uprising against ASSad...
So, by Taking it... ASSad wanted to say" We won"...

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Aleppo "importance" is not about "Tourism" or "Mosques"...it's about Symbolism...
Aleppo was the biggest/most important center of this uprising against ASSad...
So, by Taking it... ASSad wanted to say" We won"...

True, but the treasure of Aleppo is the castle and the mosque. That is a huge source of revenue. Modern buildings are worth nothing. They are built. They are torn down. But these 2 buildings stand for thousands of years.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

Yes Aleppo is seen as some sort of Betrayal, not only to Syrian outside, but even among Rebels, and HTS animosity toward TR is also made of this event.
Yes, I also Think SAA+allies will advance on Idlib, They need it to legitimize their "position".
Yes, RU can't do anything about it, in this current situation, they lost enough "influence" to keep the dogs on leash.
Yes, TR strategy in Syria isn't good, I believe they could have done better, but I also understand that, they couldn't forecast the Syrian roller coaster... with RU involvement, that tipped the balance and ISIS loose in the East, that gave YPG free movement... They didn't react in Time after those changes and got behind the train...
I believe, When the wind begun to change, They hoped that by letting go of the Syrian conflict, they could go back in time... But things didn't went as planned...
YPG was growing/ISIS declining/Rebels too... so They had to get a new purpose/position in this conflict... and it begun with the Al Bab op against ISIS... till what we have today...

And now, they are back to Zero... "Letting go of the Syrian Conflict" and hope things goes back to normal... or "Continue at all cost" and hope for the best...

Actually, believe it or not, but years ago on PDF, I talked about Russian involvement being a question of time and asking why the pro-Syrian states where this silent and not active enough to make the "final blow".

You know what? Because the parties involved had different ideas and plans and where fighting for influence among themselves. There was the MB project (which will be denied today) which would have succeed if Morsi had remained in power and involved Egypt directly in Syria. Then you had KSA, Jordan, UAE who had other ideas and priorities (removing a pro-Iranian regime) while Turkey, Qatar and Morsi (the MB "bunch") wanted the MB to rule Syria. USA had their own priorities as well. Syrian opposition groups differed too. Many were not Islamists (in fact most) yet the Islamists gained the power like in similar uprisings that turn bloody. For instance in Tunisia you were lucky that the protests did not turn bloody in comparison (Ben Ali deserves credit here) which prevented radicals from gaining ground. Instead Islamists gained power by votes and you removed them again by vote. No big deal.

It's a mess indeed. However people who knew Syria could have predicted such a pattern. 40+ years of (firm grip) Ba'athi rule in Syria and all minorities being pro-Al-Assad by default due to the nature of the Syrian opposition, and you have a tough nut to crack. Add Russian involvement and Iranian Mullah involvement (Hezbollah) and 1000's upon 1000's of Shia militias from Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan (how many Hazaras were not killed in Syria - we are talking several 1000's) and it becomes a problem when you are lightly armed and have no air force or anything to protect yourself other than urban fighting or using ISIS like "battle tactics" (quick ambushes).

The biggest tragedy is that Al-Assad helped destroy Syria and that Syrians did not saw it coming. Putting your faith in the hands of foreigners (nation states moreover that only look for their own interests) should be a lesson for everyone. Change in such regimes (peacefully) can only occur from the top down. Not the bottom up. If it could, Syria would not be what it is today in 2018 but another Tunisia (success story in comparison).

 

[HannibalBarca]

True, but the treasure of Aleppo is the castle and the mosque. That is a huge source of revenue. Modern buildings are worth nothing. They are built. They are torn down. But these 2 buildings stand for thousands of years.

No Tourist will ever go there in the first place...Even Syrian under Regime rule wouldn't...
That cityis in ruins... The Mosque and the Castle too... There is nothing to see, but Destruction...

The last Time I heard something about Aleppo reconstruction, it was like 3-5Bil$ for reconstruction and 6-8 years...