Can I ask you if you have any insight on this, but how strong are the Afghan and Iranian lobbies?
Not to promote sectarian rubbish but so many Shias are literally just mental slaves of Iran, they'll defend it like their depends on it.
Also is the establishment taking the Afghan security risk on the western border seriously? Because I don't see how flooding the country with them especially past KPK was a smart idea...
You are interested in topics which are usually thorough, long and have been discussed to death on this forum already. Have you been born and brought up in Pakistan ? I doubt it, but I don't know your story as to tell how much you know already because the background of Afghan and Iran involvement matters. And when you talk about Iran, you cannot ignore KSA involvement in Pakistan since its a competition between them.
FATA and Afghanistan
Going towards Afghan lobby, first you have to look at FATA. Why there wasn't a Government writ in FATA meaning FATA was used as buffer zone without any checks and balances till start of 2000's. It served as no-go zone for Pakistani forces except under some circumstances, this is why Levies existed. This meant that it was not only a smuggling/criminal safe haven for criminals, it also served as an entry point into Pakistan without any paperwork and then proceed towards any city of Pakistan. Anybody who wanted to go into hiding could go into FATA and hide there as long as he wanted. It also served as a settling base for mujahideen fighters of 80's era. They married, had kids and their lives were mostly unchecked even if they have rocket launchers hanging in their homes. KSA knew that a stronghold in Balochistan was not easy due to Iran and also that the religious motivation for Jihad in Afghanistan in 80s was the base of religion which was set to motivate recruits against Soviet Army and this base was what later influenced masjids in KPK and Punjab in Pakistan, later influenced FATA region and then the bloody Lal Masjid siege we saw.
Balcohistan and not just Iran
Now lets have a look at Iran which brings in Baluchistan. Not starting from 70's insurgency, lets jump forward to start of 2000's. Baluchistan has been a playground for Russians, Americans, Indians, Israelis, and Iranians. Now China has come in the picture through Gwadar so matters have taking a new turn. So many countries interested in one province of Pakistan. The pay structure 20 years ago for BLA was the ordinary recruits and basic insurgents getting around US $ 200 per month, a small fortune for anyone who never has a hope of landing any decent government job in their home towns. The section leaders get upward of US $ 300 and there are special bonuses for executing a task successfully. The course taught to BLA trainees is as follows with main subjects:
1. Baloch's right of independence
2. The Concept of Greater Balochistan
3. Sabotage as a tool for political struggle
4. Tyranny of Punjab and plight of oppressed nations
5. Media-friendly methods of mass protest.
Manuals, guidelines and even lecture plans are/were available in the Kometit [KGB] archives.
Iranians use the road of Zahidan-Quetta when they can find someone with legal documents as was the case with an Iranian who has business interests both in Pakistan and Iran and who came to Quetta. However, there are other entry points e.g. three main landing points in Balochistan:
1. Eastern lip of Gwater Bay that lies in the Iranian territory but affords easy crossover to Pakistan through unguarded land border;
2. Open space between Bomra and Khor Kalmat;
3. Easternmost shoulder of Gawadar East Bay.
India in Balochistan
Looking at the Indian side of things and how BLA is supported (excluding Afghanistan sanctuaries under RAW).
Kishangarh is a small Indian town, barely five kilometers from Pakistan border where the provinces of Punjab and Sindh meet. There is a supply depot and a training centre there that maintains contacts with militant training camps in Pakistan, including Balochistan. There is also a logistics support depot near Shahgarh, about 90 kilometers from Kishangarh, that serves as launching pad for the Indian supplies and experts.
Arms and equipment such as Klashnikov, heavy machine guns, small AA guns, RPGs, mortars, landmines, ammunition and communication equipment are transferred from Kishangarh and Shahgarh to Pakistani side on camel back and then they are shifted to goods trucks, with some legitimate cargo on top and the whole load is covered by tarpauline sheets. Arms and equipment are, as a rule, boxed in CKD or SKD form.
The trucks have to travel only 140 or 180 kilometers to reach Sui and a little more to reach Kohlu, a distance that can be covered in a few hours only. This is most convenient route because transferring anything from Afghanistan to these areas demands much sturdy vehicles that must cover longer distance over difficult terrain.
Somethings have obviously changed now since we are in 2022/23 and I am talking of the very start from 2002 till 2006. But setting the premise was important so you can see how much has setup and established by enemies of Pakistan since early 2000's which made it a massive task for Pakistan Army and other LEAs to dislodge entrenched TTP from ground up. The problem of tackling BLA had not even begun on a bigger scale then.
This is just the start, there is a lot that has happened during various operations. Pakistan has to fight TTP and BLA at the same time, which is not a good strategy since Army should focus on TTP first while Federal LEAs should go after BLA.
Pakistanis should put Pakistan first instead of KSA or Iran, but the influx of different races in Pakistan and Afghan refugees have changed the dynamics of population and their integration into society has changed the mindset of public. One section of public wants refugees kicked out of Pakistan, others welcome them as brothers. This is where the problem lies, a division created in Pakistanis, by Pakistani public themselves through their own views. So what to talk of any Iranian or Afghan lobby when the Pakistani public chooses to act blind and deaf under the guise or politics or religion or family.
Let me live with my hate and let the innocent Pakistani's pay the price. I've already copied a nice version picture of " In nal illah-e- Wa in nal ilahe Rajeeon " we all will be using that a lot in future.
