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Solving Afghanistan?

Sorry, I'm not sure I understand what you are talking about?

It's the personal responsibility of those who house terrorists if their houses are in turn targetted by U.S. Drones? If this is what you mean, then yes, certainly.


But I thought we were talking about circumstances and conditions which may allow the American to go home
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The problem you seem to be forgetting is the Taliban's support for groups that decided to wage war on the rest of the world. You can find Taliban links in the Kashmir conflict, Egypt, Suadi Arabia, Chechnya, Dagestan, attacks on America, operations in Malaysia and the Philippines etc. When the Taliban cast its lot with Al Queda and Arab jihadist it made itself part of them and part of their war on everything non-wahabist Sunni. That they made this choice is not in the least surprising- Saudi Wahabist had poured uncounted millions into the madrassas that created the Taliban in the first place.

The Taliban knew thew risks, had known the risk for years and they took them anyway. They wrote their own death warrants.

What death warrants? The only ones dying by the hundreds are innocent Afghans, Iraqis and Pakistani civilians. The Taliban are expanding their influence with every drone attack. That is the sad reality. Another case of sacrificing the strategic goals for the tactical ones that provide quick political mileage (look we are doing something and killing the bad guys...without realizing for each dead, how many more are joining the ranks and destabilizing governments in the region that want to get beyond this problem).

There is absolutely no Taliban connection with Phillipines, Malaysia, Egypt, KSA and the likes. I know the connection you are trying to make and that applies more to AQ (what ever this entity is suppose to be) than to Taliban. Taliban are a local Afghan/Pakistan phenomena. Its not the Taliban ideology that drives militant movements, rather the fact that Afghanistan being a war zone drives
people into it.

You invade a land without meeting resistance is something out of the norm. People will pick up weapons to fight you.

You cannot fight an ideology by force of arms. Especially the one you are bringing up with reference to Saudi money. That ideology has to be dealt with on the Muslim street by the Muslims as a vast majority do not adhere to it. Prolonging stays in Muslim countries does not help anyone trying to be constructive here.
 
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You cannot fight an ideology by force of arms. Especially the one you are bringing up with reference to Saudi money. That ideology has to be dealt with on the Muslim street by the Muslims as a vast majority do not adhere to it. Prolonging stays in Muslim countries does not help anyone trying to be constructive here.

Very true. A realistic person you are, blain2.
 
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Yes you are right, however the perpetrators and planners are not the Pashtuns of Uruzgan and Kandahar. Your war is turning into one against all of them.

No its not, a war against them all would resemble what we did to Germany and Japan.




Zraver that is your view. Had the Iraqi Army been allowed to stay intact, the carnage that followed could have been avoided. Americans were advised by the Saudis and many others to do so but sane advice was disregarded that time around falling victim to the misplaced notion of "no dealing with the Baathists". This time around more sane advice to deal with the Pashtuns is being ignored on the grounds of "no dealing with Taliban". In the end the American side will come full circle and make deals with them to bring some semblance of stability in Afghanistan.

See my reply below to the other related post




There has to be a history of bloodshed in the entity prior to dismemberment for you to see the point I am trying to make. Aside from USSR which resulted in many more conflicts (Azerbaijan/Armenia, Gerogia/Russia, Russia/Ukraine etc.) most of the above examples do no apply. Compare that to Yugoslavia.

I was simply showing that dissolution does not mean violence as a rule.



No they were not. There was a proper government (albeit a puppet one) in Kabul. The Soviets installed it and then replaced it. There was no factional fighting in Afghanistan prior to the Soviet invasion.

Incorrect, look for yourself the fighting started in 78, this is what prompted a Soviet invasion.





My friend you are way off with your assessment. The vast majority of the Iraqi Army was led and manned by Shias. The Sunnis were definitely in most of the key positions, however in a country with a Shia majority, to man a million man Army, the majority of the manpower comes from that bank. Secondly, what is unknown to most is that Iran-Iraq war was essentially a Arab Shia vs. Persian Shia conflagaration. Although it was not fought on these lines, however the vast majority of the troops who lost their lives on both sides (specifically Iraq) were Shias. I had Irani friends in Pakistan who would tell me about this tragedy as many had migrated and still live here.

Reread what I wrote. I specifically pointed out the shia nature of the Iran-Iraq war. The army was not trusted, it was seen as an instrument of the Baa'thist

I think you really need to dig up some real history and not follow what you just see in the newspapers which had absolutely no clue about the past history. Those who pass for experts from various thinktanks are pretty much clueless about what has gone on in that area. Real scholars in the United States have been sidelined by these various thinktanks that provide all these expert opinions on various news outlets and the newspapers in the United States.

So any one who disagrees with you doe snot know what they are talking about? There goes the conversation.

US administration invited Taliban leadership and met with them in the US.

What admin, what taliban leaders, names please.

The Northern Alliance was a non-entity when this was going on.

United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan was created in 96 from the imediate post war group that ended the communists.

Your memory is only around the years of 9/11. We have been following this long saga for at least 2 decades prior to that.

I am 36 and a polisci/history major who served in the US Army duing the Cold war please do not insult me.


There is so much history here that if someone wanted to do an honest analysis of it they would find many inconvenient truths

I've pointed out several that you ignored.


The easy thing to do is to pass on the buck to Pakistan and let it be the punching bag for this Taliban bogey. Do remember that Taliban were recognized by three very important US allies in the Muslim world (KSA, UAE and Pakistan) and had 9/11 not happened, US contacts with them would have continued. There was business to be done and all were on board.

But 9/11 did happen. The US doesn't go around killing Pakistanis for fun or profit, but kills those who kill. try to kill or aid those who do- Americans. You keep ignoring this fact or attributing it to legitimate resistance, its not. If they live in Pakistan they are Pakistani, If Pakistan won't or can't control them it places no obligation on the US to let its troops be killed without recourse. The predator strikes are in response to Pakistan's failure to end this support from its territory for a war on the US.

Sure believe what you will. Does not take anything away from the facts. It will only lead you turn around and reassess things in the future. You have my word on that. There will be no "victory" in Afghanistan.

we will see. The biggest impediment to victory is a lack of will to really fight a war. General Sherman said, "Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster." and, "I would make this war as severe as possible, and show no symptoms of tiring till the South begs for mercy." and perhaps most importantly, "My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom. "

Thats how you fight a war, and the way the US should fight. Take the damn gloves off drive up the body count and knock some sense into people. It works, its crual barbarous and evil but it works. Look at the Devil's wind following the Sepoy Rebellion. The Brits wanted colonial mastery in addition to retribution but the principle is the same. Make war to horrible to wage.

The Predator strikes are a watered down form of that and watering down leads to more death and destruction in the long run that total war.

Signal of what? A strike against Arab militants was not the same thing as taking on the Taliban. No less than the Saudi Intelligence chief and Pakistani Intelligence chief were trying to wean the original Taliban leadership from the Arab fighters who had gone to Afghanistan.

IIRC the strike came after the Taliban told the US to kiss off when asked to hand OBL over.

What nonsense is that? Someone invades your United States and do you think your reaction would be any different.

No one invaded Pakistan.


You went in to punish the perpetrators of 9/11. You have no idea who these people are so now the war is pretty much open ended and against Pashtuns.

No the war is against those who make war on us.

Take a look at the article that S-2 posted from the Washington Post that talks about a US Army platoon/Coy ambushing Taliban cadres. Guess who came for the dead bodies of the Taliban? Local villagers saying they wanted to bury their dead men.

Un-huh, cause a large party of armed men was moving along the ridges into an ambush position looking for a lost girl. They were Taliban, they chose their fate.

These people were not from Pakistan

They might all have been local, maybe not.


and they surely are not Al-Qaeda. You can sit here and try to make your war look like its only against a certain type of Pashtun etc. etc. but that is not what is happening on the ground.

its against those who make war on the US, not anyone else.

The people who attack the US and the ISAF do so because they OCCUPY their country.

58% of the population disagrees. But then the Pashtuns are not very good at giving a hoot about that fact that over all they are not the majority, just the biggest single group.


Tell me how many of the 9/11 attackers were Pashtun? Zero!

Thousands, it was the Pashtun Taliban that enabled 9-11. it was the Pashtun Taliban that chose on 9-12 to side with AQ and risk war with the US. 9-11 would not have been possible without the Taliban.

So your presence in their affairs is the reason they attack you. They do not come over to the United States to attack you. They attack you in their own country which you control by force of arms.

We kicked a brutal terrorist aligned regime out of power, have the support of the majority of the population etc...

I would call you a gutless good for nothing if someone invaded the United States and you sat on your rear doing nothing about it. It is your God given right, supported by the UN convention to fight an occupier and nobody can take that away from you. The US has done what it has done, but now they need to push talks above fighting and plan an orderly exit. The longer you stay there, the more complex the problem becomes.

Unless and until the Pashtuns join the political process with the understanding they are not the sole voice for Afghanistan peace won't be achieved. The Pashtuns want the whole cake- we won't let them. We saw how that worked with the Taliban and we are not going to let that cancer reform.
 
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Very true. A realistic person you are, blain2.

History disagrees with you

fascism
slavery
colonialism
communism
religious zealotry

These are just some of the forms of ideology defeated by force of arms. Caesar killed a million Gauls, a hundred years later the region was more Roman than Rome but still ethnically Gaulish. No ideology can withstand violence if enough pressure is applied. Make the situation painful enough,dangerous enough and people will drop any ideology in favor of seeing their kids grow up.
 
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Look how the Taliban treated the majority of the country under the Taliban because they happened to be the biggest single block? It wasn't very nice and didn't give hoot for what the Uzbecks or who ever else thought was best for themselves. It seems the Pashtuns want something they were not willing to give to others.

Zraver,

This is the reason that you need to involve Pashtuns more broadly. Negate the Taliban leadership in this insurgence so it does not leave them in the kingmaker's role when all is said and done.

Your idea of the Pashtun is unfortunately limited to your understanding of the Taliban. Well the Pashtun is a far more complex individual and a nation. Afghans fondly recall good times during Zahir Shah, a Pashtun! All Pashtuns want is that they get the representation they deserve.

You mention the treatment of Uzbeks at the hands of Taliban (indeed it was shameful), however there was an element of payback involved in that violence. Pashtuns were slaughtered by the Uzbek side (supported by Tajiks) earlier on in 1993-94 if I recall correctly. The Taliban paid back in kind.

However that is not the only time when Pashtuns have had a position of political prominence in Afghanistan. So I do not believe that Pashtun prominence in Afghan polity is a recipe for disaster or anything like that.
 
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History disagrees with you

fascism
slavery
colonialism
communism
religious zealotry

These are just some of the forms of ideology defeated by force of arms. Caesar killed a million Gauls, a hundred years later the region was more Roman than Rome but still ethnically Gaulish. No ideology can withstand violence if enough pressure is applied. Make the situation painful enough,dangerous enough and people will drop any ideology in favor of seeing their kids grow up.

The issue on hand is nothing like anything that is on your list aside from "religious zealotry". Give me an example where religious zealotry was fought with force of arms and overcame the problem completely.
 
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The issue on hand is nothing like anything that is on your list aside from "religious zealotry". Give me an example where religious zealotry was fought with force of arms and overcame the problem completely.

How do you think Latin America is largely Catholic ? Why is Pakistan Muslim ? Why is Chechnya silent ? Where did all the Jews of Roman empire go ? Why is Russia and China largely atheist ?
Many religions have spread on the backs of armies and been wiped out by another horde.
 
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and been wiped out by another horde.

That's the point isn't it - you have to get to the level of genocide to accomplish that kind of turnaround.

And its not just the reach of ideology that is magnified many times over through the media and IT, but also its ability to take events in real time and manipulate them to serve its ends.

The old formula's do not apply anymore.
 
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Blain2 and I have just had this conversation about the pashtu. He's also had the opportunity to read a recent and comprehensive poll that indicates the support for the taliban and others is nil and that while NATO and American support has eroded since 2002, it is still considerable the gap among afghan people WRT the taliban and ISAF. No comparison.

Is there a serious objection to the data, blain2?

Nothing denies the pashtu the right to PARTICIPATE. They chose not, largely, and are naturally under-represented. There's nothing that the U.N./ISAF/America wouldn't like more than strong pashtu electoral participation this time around.

Clearly, the more afghani pashtu whom are politically invested, the less traction is provided to those in Pakistan promulgating rebellion as the alternative.

There is no guaranteed seat at this table. You pay to play as a voting constituency and it's an artform of which the pashtu need to become more comfortable.
 
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No its not, a war against them all would resemble what we did to Germany and Japan.

Well you cannot do what you did to the Germans and the Japanese just because times are different (although one never knows) and the nature of the war is slightly different. However fighting CI is a tricky affair and if you are not effective in weaning off the support from the insurgency and in turn alienate the people further then it becomes a matter of perception.


Incorrect, look for yourself the fighting started in 78, this is what prompted a Soviet invasion.

Again there was no in-fighting between factions. The Soviets were playing king makers and the violence was as a result of their positioning of folks who then decided to not toe their line and then were eliminated by the Soviets eventually leading to invasion.

Reread what I wrote. I specifically pointed out the shia nature of the Iran-Iraq war. The army was not trusted, it was seen as an instrument of the Baa'thist

The Army could have been made to be trusted. The Republican Guard was the Baathist entity. That should have been disbanded, not the entire Iraqi Army and the police force.

So any one who disagrees with you doe snot know what they are talking about? There goes the conversation.

No I did not mean that. You are fine to disagree. However I do feel that you have some holes in your recall of history. Forget the point about me suggesting you do not know what you are talking about. I did not intend it that way.



What admin, what taliban leaders, names please.

I owe you that. Need to dig it up in the books. Will come back to you with the year/names etc.

United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan was created in 96 from the imediate post war group that ended the communists.


I am 36 and a polisci/history major who served in the US Army duing the Cold war please do not insult me.

I respect that and have no intent to insult you, I find some of the stuff you state to be off the mark thus suggesting to you quite frankly that those of us who lived in the region throughout the Soviet war and then the whole Taliban mess in Afghanistan have a perspective which is different from what one may read in the books in the West and in college/Uni.

I've pointed out several that you ignored.
Not one aside from that of USSR provides a case of such diversity of ethinicities as that of Iraq. That was my point.



But 9/11 did happen. The US doesn't go around killing Pakistanis for fun or profit, but kills those who kill. try to kill or aid those who do- Americans. You keep ignoring this fact or attributing it to legitimate resistance, its not. If they live in Pakistan they are Pakistani, If Pakistan won't or can't control them it places no obligation on the US to let its troops be killed without recourse. The predator strikes are in response to Pakistan's failure to end this support from its territory for a war on the US.

Yes it did and if I may also many other atrocities far worse than 9/11. As I mentioned, you were in your right and were supported by all, including all of the Muslim countries, to punish those who had committed this large scale murder of innocent civilians in the United State. However that was back in 2001, we are now in 2009 after having waged two wars (one at least totally unnecessary) and the other one being fought on without any end goals.

You keep on talking about US wanting to kill whoever does this or that, well lets first realize why some Pashtun Taliban from a backwater village in a remote part of Afghanistan wants to fight you. Its not a case where every Afghan Pashtun is imbued with what you refer to as the "wahabbi" zeal. Most of the Afghan Pashtuns don't subscribe to this school of thought. However what they do have issues with is a foreign occupation force in their land. You being a History major would surely know that Afghans have never been positively inclined towards outsiders. Such is the case even now and that is why you are being attacked inside of Afghanistan (and not United States mind you) and Pashtuns living in Pakistani tribal areas support there kinsmen in this war.

I have already expounded in great detail why this affinity exists between the Pakistani Pashtun and the Afghan Pashtun and the reason for it is that in the eyes of the Pashtun, they are a Pashtun first and then if being a Pakistani makes their life more convenient then they become a Pakistani pashtun, otherwise an Afghan. The border matters little to them.
we will see. The biggest impediment to victory is a lack of will to really fight a war. General Sherman said, "Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster." and, "I would make this war as severe as possible, and show no symptoms of tiring till the South begs for mercy." and perhaps most importantly, "My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom. "

Thats how you fight a war, and the way the US should fight. Take the damn gloves off drive up the body count and knock some sense into people. It works, its crual barbarous and evil but it works. Look at the Devil's wind following the Sepoy Rebellion. The Brits wanted colonial mastery in addition to retribution but the principle is the same. Make war to horrible to wage.

You can try that. It will not work. It did not work in Vietnam for as many reasons as I can line up in Afghanistan. US is a superpower, however every power has a certain limit. Linebacker operations were conducted to bomb the hell out of the communists in Vietnam. The only thing that these did was to bring them to the table. It did not defeat the other side. You lost more support in doing so. You can surely try the same in Afghanistan, but if history is anything to go by, I do not see much success with this approach. Secondly, what are you bombing in Afghanistan and what is left to bomb? Every single firefight results in US air strikes called in by JTAC/FACs on the ground. You want to expand the campaign then where do you do it?

Russians did exactly what you are suggesting here. They bombed the villages and townships inside of Afghanistan to kill the support for the insurgency. They killed 1 million Afghans. Do you think the US would fare any better taking out 2 million Afghans? How so and to what end? All very difficult choices and none provide the solution you seek.

The Predator strikes are a watered down form of that and watering down leads to more death and destruction in the long run that total war.

Again Predator strikes are just one facet of the overall campaign. As I mentioned earlier, it would be interesting to see if such attacks have done anything to dent the Taliban operations in Afghanistan.


Un-huh, cause a large party of armed men was moving along the ridges into an ambush position looking for a lost girl. They were Taliban, they chose their fate.

You missed the entire point. They were indeed combatants but what was their background?

They might all have been local, maybe not.

That "maybe not" part is a convenient way of avoiding the reality of this war.


its against those who make war on the US, not anyone else.

Make war on the US is different from making war against the US occupation of their country. A distinction needs to be made here. Lets not follow the misplaced logic of Mr. George Walker Bush when he suggested "you are either with us or against us". The real world does not work like that. I know the desire to see oneself always as the Knight in shining armour, however you were on the right after 9/11. After two ill-conceived wars, that idea is no longer as clear cut as you are making it out to be. Some re-evaluation or rethink is needed.

58% of the population disagrees. But then the Pashtuns are not very good at giving a hoot about that fact that over all they are not the majority, just the biggest single group.

Afghanistan without Pashtuns is not Afghanistan. You need to realize that without getting bogged down by the actions of Taliban and considering them to be representatives of Pashtuns only.
Thousands, it was the Pashtun Taliban that enabled 9-11. it was the Pashtun Taliban that chose on 9-12 to side with AQ and risk war with the US. 9-11 would not have been possible without the Taliban.


OK my friend. You waged you war. Where is it going now? We already know the ones who made the calls on the even of 9/12 are no longer active or even matter any longer. Insurgents inside of Afghanistan have local leaders and as has been the case all along, these groups are fighting the US/ISAF in a discontiguous form (there is no central command etc. despite the oft repeated bogey of Mullah Omar who is essentially gone with the wind).


We kicked a brutal terrorist aligned regime out of power, have the support of the majority of the population etc...

Thanks for doing that (I mean it), however the only problem is that once you did that, you had no idea how to fix this problem beyond the kicking down of the doors. So here you are 5 years after booting them from power, they are still running the countryside and causing problems for you because you give them a reason to exist, regroup and fight.


Unless and until the Pashtuns join the political process with the understanding they are not the sole voice for Afghanistan peace won't be achieved. The Pashtuns want the whole cake- we won't let them. We saw how that worked with the Taliban and we are not going to let that cancer reform.

Zraver,

Pashtuns are not asking to be the sole voice of Afghanistan. They never were and never will be owing to the country's fairly significant minorities including Tajiks who make up about 30% or so of the country. The point is that the Pashtuns should be given their due share based on being the largest ethnic group inside of Afghanistan. You cannot have peace in Afghanistan until you have the Pashtuns on board.

You keep on bringing up the Taliban as if all of the Pashtuns are Taliban. Many Pashtuns who are fighting have nothing to do with Taliban, yet they are practicing Muslims and have tribal links to others who may be members of the Taliban. These links do not make them problematic. The main issue is the occupation. You need to put a representative Afghan government, Army and police in place and then move on. That is the only way to have success in Afghanistan and relative peace in the region.
 
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S-2:

If the data is accurate, then what is preventing the Pashtun from participating?

Is it the system set up by the US they do not care for? Why force it upon them then? Isn't the whole point to have a system that the people want, a system that encourages people to participate, and not what the West thinks is appropriate?
 
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But what of the idea that Afghanistan's neighbors gaurantee it's neutrality ? What do you guys think of this idea?

And another idea, which is that we may want ot thik beyond the idea of a single Afghan state and in this way, attenuate ethnic strife and perhaps these states can do a better job of conrtrolling extremist ideologies. What do you guys think?

I don't think that , presently, the US would trust Afghanistan's neighbors (Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) to guarantee anything meaningful about Afghanistan. How could they? What the US wants is (1) for Afghanistan to not be a safe haven for international irhabis and (2) to be peaceful and (3) join the 21st century. I don't see how any of the neighbors, save China, could guarantee (#1). And, of course, China would never do so. It has rarely projected power, only into North Korea and Tibet 50 years ago.

As for dismembering Afghanistan, one could make the case for giving a piece to each of the neighbors, along ethnic community lines, eliminating the "problem" State altogether. But that would be crass imperialism. Who would EVER be able to make THAT happen?
 
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^^I dont know where we r going with this thread, but one thing is sadly becoming very clear to me, our country does not value the sacrifices being made by our soldiers and jawans - in the last few days there have been numerous attacks on check-posts and convoys and there has been no "reaction" from the civilian govt and the security top brass - if this happened to say the israeli army soldiers, there would have been a hard response!

what are we coming to!
 
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How do you think Latin America is largely Catholic ? Why is Pakistan Muslim ? Why is Chechnya silent ? Where did all the Jews of Roman empire go ? Why is Russia and China largely atheist ?
Many religions have spread on the backs of armies and been wiped out by another horde.

Does not answer my question.
 
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