Solving Afghanistan?

[roadrunner]

Roadrunner...the Taliban of 96 under Mullah Umar, wiill not be the Taliban of 09 under Mullah Umar...too many things have changed, strategies, tactics, allegiances...no need to save face anymore...then we were their meherbaan...now, we hold no such currency with them.

Do not expect the next Mullah Umar Emirate to be so kind to Pkistan...If they get in power in Kabul (even with a peace deal with the US and Karzai under a power sharing agreement) then they will support insurgency in Pakistna by the mercenery TTP...I'm sure of that.

The TTP cannot have any influence in Pakistan so long as the needs and security of the Western border is taken care of. If Mullah Omar can exert his influence in NWFP to any great degree, then Pakistan has gone past its tipping point.

But that can only occur through continuous drone strikes. The MMA are the closest political party that Mullah Omar resembles. They were only voted in on an anti American card, and their re-election was rejected by the people, so at least up till last year, extremist thought had not found its way into mainstream society. So long as it stays that way Mullah Omar will not have any influence in the region.

But another thing I'd point out. I didn't say Mullah Omar was the best choice. The best choice would be someone who could muster an army like the Taliban, an Afghan, with no foreign connections, and take control of the country. It doesn't have to be the Taliban, if things are done correctly, though currently that ideology is the most powerful in Afghanistan through years of nurturing.

 

[Hellfire]

I really think you have to get out of the 'terrorist' mindset to understand the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

No doubt some of the Taliban factions are cooperating with Al Qaeda, but 'terrorism' for the sake of blowing up people is not what is driving the insurgency. The US overthrew one faction in a civil war in favor of another, and now has a military presence in Afghanistan. The overthrown faction considers the overthrow of the 'occupiers' and a return to power its right and a just cause.

You have to get beyond the canard of 'we do not negotiate with terrorists' to start resolving Afghanistan.

Am yet to come across any terror group which professes 'terrorism for the sake of blowing up people'. usually its the result of a perception held by masses, and in case of the Talibs, they are afterall the self appointed guardians of Islam!

 

[Hellfire]

The TTP cannot have any influence in Pakistan so long as the needs and security of the Western border is taken care of. If Mullah Omar can exert his influence in NWFP to any great degree, then Pakistan has gone past its tipping point.

But that can only occur through continuous drone strikes. The MMA are the closest political party that Mullah Omar resembles. They were only voted in on an anti American card, and their re-election was rejected by the people, so at least up till last year, extremist thought had not found its way into mainstream society. So long as it stays that way Mullah Omar will not have any influence in the region.

But another thing I'd point out. I didn't say Mullah Omar was the best choice. The best choice would be someone who could muster an army like the Taliban, an Afghan, with no foreign connections, and take control of the country. It doesn't have to be the Taliban, if things are done correctly, though currently that ideology is the most powerful in Afghanistan through years of nurturing.

Roadrunner

While what you say may be true, there is another conflicting POV to this, something we may conviniently like to overlook.

It is already quite apparent that TTP has managed to establish its pre-eminence, howsoever, in the FATA areas and the same can be seen from the fact that their numbers have infact swelled with more volunteers joining them from these areas, something which IMO points to a large existence of sympathy for their ideologies.

In addition, your contention about MMA may be true, but if I remember correctly, it supported Musharraf too to a certain extent, and the fact that it was voted on a plank of Anti-Americanism in 2002 (just after Afghan operations began) meant that it was bound to loose a re-election for it was seen to be doing two things indirectly as government that it had declared it will not, support continued drone operations in FATA and support US in its efforts in Afghanistan. So the contention of fundamentalism being a new phenomenon is untrue, for it was existing right through out Soviet campaign days.

In the end, the likelihood of a non-foreign supported leader taking over the helm of Afghan affairs are not likely to be realised ever.

Thanks