SMIC to the rescue? Huawei shouldn’t hold its breath: experts

[gambit]

People don't need ideology, nobody wants to be dictated to, especially when they think their own model is working fine.

When the world saw how China dictated to Tibet and Hong Kong, they will recognize that ideology will ALWAYS be the foundation of their ways of life.

Huawei subsidiary Honor decided to go with MediaTek processors instead of HiSilicon.

Huawei is rumored to be working with Samsung and Hynix in TRYING to secure a stable supply of memory. However, both latter companies officially denied such meetings took place.

What experiences have you got in the first place...

How about 20+ yrs in the semicon industry? You?

 

[Han Patriot]

When the world saw how China dictated to Tibet and Hong Kong, they will recognize that ideology will ALWAYS be the foundation of their ways of life.

Huawei subsidiary Honor decided to go with MediaTek processors instead of HiSilicon.

Huawei is rumored to be working with Samsung and Hynix in TRYING to secure a stable supply of memory. However, both latter companies officially denied such meetings took place.


How about 20+ yrs in the semicon industry? You?

Add in 10 years masters in Googling skills. If Chinese territories cannot be dictated by China then the Southern States should have been granted independence

 

[j20blackdragon]

Huawei subsidiary Honor decided to go with MediaTek processors instead of HiSilicon.

Huawei is rumored to be working with Samsung and Hynix in TRYING to secure a stable supply of memory. However, both latter companies officially denied such meetings took place.

Why are you worried about Huawei phones when 102,000 are dead and 41 million Americans have applied for unemployment in just 10 weeks? 40% of American adults don't even have the savings to cover a $400 emergency expense, and that's when they had jobs. How many of these unemployed people are going to prioritize buying a 5G phone over next month's rent or mortgage? The people that are working right now are probably working from home. Various companies have already invested in remote work tools and are now saying that 'work from home' is now here to STAY. Most K-12 schools are shut down due to coronavirus and parents have to stay home to take care of their kids. Do you want to bring an infected babysitter into your home? Most universities have converted to online classes. That means college students are staying indoors too.

So please tell me how much DEMAND is there for 5G right now in America? 5G is a mobile, on-the-go technology. You don't need 5G if you are sheltering in place 24/7. You would be better off upgrading your cable internet and home PC. Rural areas in America are stuck with DSL; that won't change anytime soon lol.

But here's the problem for the U.S. The 5G commercial rollout is THIS YEAR in China. Initial rollout was last year. China is expecting to build anywhere from 800,000 to over 1 MILLION 5G base stations by 2020 year end. That means major economies of scale that other countries simply can't match. China is getting ready to DUMP (economic term dump) 5G base stations at low prices worldwide.

 

[j20blackdragon]

That means major economies of scale that other countries simply can't match.

This is the economies of scale that I am talking about. Does anyone actually believe Ericsson and Nokia can match this when most of Europe is in a RECESSION?

In seven years, the existing 5.5 million 4G base stations will be upgraded to 5G. The combined total of 5G base stations will reach six million in China by 2027.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...vering-50-million-users-Qc6vF1lXOM/index.html

In 2019, China averaged over 2,400 5G base stations built per week. In 2020 it will average over 10,000. That also puts China on track to accomplish its goal of building a total of over 600,000 5G base stations by year's end.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...-5G-network-by-year-end-QRGKU2CheE/index.html

Huawei has built 200,000 5G base stations so far in China and the number is set to hit 800,000 by 2020 covering over 340 cities, according to company's wireless network vice president Gan Bin.
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200521PD208.html

 

[Han Patriot]

Why are you worried about Huawei phones when 102,000 are dead and 41 million Americans have applied for unemployment in just 10 weeks? 40% of American adults don't even have the savings to cover a $400 emergency expense, and that's when they had jobs. How many of these unemployed people are going to prioritize buying a 5G phone over next month's rent or mortgage? The people that are working right now are probably working from home. Various companies have already invested in remote work tools and are now saying that 'work from home' is now here to STAY. Most K-12 schools are shut down due to coronavirus and parents have to stay home to take care of their kids. Do you want to bring an infected babysitter into your home? Most universities have converted to online classes. That means college students are staying indoors too.

So please tell me how much DEMAND is there for 5G right now in America? 5G is a mobile, on-the-go technology. You don't need 5G if you are sheltering in place 24/7. You would be better off upgrading your cable internet and home PC. Rural areas in America are stuck with DSL; that won't change anytime soon lol.

But here's the problem for the U.S. The 5G commercial rollout is THIS YEAR in China. Initial rollout was last year. China is expecting to build anywhere from 800,000 to over 1 MILLION 5G base stations by 2020 year end. That means major economies of scale that other countries simply can't match. China is getting ready to DUMP (economic term dump) 5G base stations at low prices worldwide.

Huawei have no.choice but to stock some chips, until 7nm or 5nm is ready for commercial scale. Processors is not and issue and fgpa is also not an issue, its 7nm/5nm fab.

 

[rott]

Add in 10 years masters in Googling skills.

 

[Paul2]

To do that they need to have ASML, Canon and Nikon all stop shipping immersion lithography tools to all of China.

That is much more difficult than stopping TSMC from shipping to Huawei.

On other hand, lots of optics in steppers come from China. Zeiss is still the king for the biggest, and highest spec lenses, but Chinese optics companies pushed them out of all, but that niche. Even Zeiss itself makes a lot of lenses for top tier equipment in China.

Lots of other hard to replace stuff in litho equipment is made in China. From specialty ceramics, to high spec nuts, and bolts. Precision casting, and machining of lots of parts for American equipment is done in China as well.

Arm twisting, for arm twisting, we can shut down the semi equipment industry for a few years.

We can't talk with them seriously without making them hurt. With each passing day, we make it easier for them to walk away from that with little cost.

I don't see Chinese diplomacy putting any effort now to come out of all of this, if not as a winner, then not a complete loser. It is this inaction that only invites more hostile actions.

Now, take a look how Hu's administration handled the hostilities a decade ago. Even such insignificant bargain piece as REE exports worked excellently at shutting the opposition down within days, when it was employed at day one, and without any mixed signals. The West had all incentives to try to weather the embargo, yet they didn't do s**t, because they believed that Hu was serious, and they will loose more political capital from that than they gain. The West after all also have cheap, and weak politicians, with their own fears that can be played.



Doing a retaliation along this lines is a 100% necessary step, and the only option left that will prevent further hostilities, and let us continue making money.

How it will work with regards to particular issue of semi industry? The semi industry is a truly international industry, and major participant in it can shut down the entire industry for months, and years. It is a very fragile industry, with many essential pieces to it being made by a one single vendor in existence. Deciding to divide the industry on American industry, and Chinese industry will break the industry.

Allowing USA to effectively shut down the semi industry for us with catastrophic impact, and keep it working for themselves should not let be, even if we can't hurt them as much as they can hurt us.

 

[Faith_Lock]

On other hand, lots of optics in steppers come from China. Zeiss is still the king for the biggest, and highest spec lenses, but Chinese optics companies pushed them out of all, but that niche. Even Zeiss itself makes a lot of lenses for top tier equipment in China.

Lots of other hard to replace stuff in litho equipment is made in China. From specialty ceramics, to high spec nuts, and bolts. Precision casting, and machining of lots of parts for American equipment is done in China as well.

Arm twisting, for arm twisting, we can shut down the semi equipment industry for a few years.

We can't talk with them seriously without making them hurt. With each passing day, we make it easier for them to walk away from that with little cost.

I don't see Chinese diplomacy putting any effort now to come out of all of this, if not as a winner, then not a complete loser. It is this inaction that only invites more hostile actions.

Now, take a look how Hu's administration handled the hostilities a decade ago. Even such insignificant bargain piece as REE exports worked excellently at shutting the opposition down within days, when it was employed at day one, and without any mixed signals. The West had all incentives to try to weather the embargo, yet they didn't do s**t, because they believed that Hu was serious, and they will loose more political capital from that than they gain. The West after all also have cheap, and weak politicians, with their own fears that can be played.



Doing a retaliation along this lines is a 100% necessary step, and the only option left that will prevent further hostilities, and let us continue making money.

How it will work with regards to particular issue of semi industry? The semi industry is a truly international industry, and major participant in it can shut down the entire industry for months, and years. It is a very fragile industry, with many essential pieces to it being made by a one single vendor in existence. Deciding to divide the industry on American industry, and Chinese industry will break the industry.

Allowing USA to effectively shut down the semi industry for us with catastrophic impact, and keep it working for themselves should not let be, even if we can't hurt them as much as they can hurt us.

Great write up.

That is what "global supply chain" means. To make product A, country 1 makes A1 which country 2 needs to make A2, then country 3 makes A3 before the final product A is made.

China is the country 1 and USA is the country 2.

Country 2 can shut part of the supply chain down that will mostly affect country 1. But country 1 can also shut other part of the supply chain down that will mostly affect country 1.

Trump has shown that he is willing to take hits to accomplish his utmost objective, to force China to sign unequal treaty.

Huawei is a perfect example. There is no USA companies that compete with Huawei (Cisco is a bit player). Kills off Huawei doesn't benefit USA directly. It causes pain to USA herself.

On the other hand, Xi is timid. It is not just against USA. He is timid against Taiwan, Australia, Hong Kong protesters.

China has so many cards to play. But only if the leader at the top is willing to play them.

Anyway, it doesn't look like Xi is going to fight back over Huawei.

 

[gambit]

Add in 10 years masters in Googling skills.

If online searches are that easy YOU would have done it. So either you are not very smart, or that what I know is beyond what internet searches can reveal. But am willing to bet you are not very smart AND that I know things about semicon manufacturing that internet searches do not reveal.

 

[Dalit]

The Americans are chewing more than they can swallow. There are grave misconceptions among many Westerners regarding Chinese survival and collapse. This is rather wishful thinking.

Long before the Western invaders and colonialists even stepped a foot on Chinese turf, China was a civilisation in its own right. Even our holy prophet has mentioned China in his narrations. Knowledge and China are a synonym. Even 1500+ years ago.

Huawei is a huge tech company that has a huge domestic market that it can cater at the expense of US imports. Huawei can also continue to cater much of the world population by providing extremely capabale devices at very affordable prices. I don't see Apple penetrating many developing nations because these devices are despite price reductions still very expensive for the average Joe in the developing markets.