SMIC to the rescue? Huawei shouldn’t hold its breath: experts

[JustAnotherPerson]

All semiconductor machineries are produced by European and Japanese and those are U.S allies. The U.S can easily influence the European and Japanese for not selling to china any of those machineries and china semiconductor industry (which is in its infant state) will stand still. The U.S can also reimburse the Japanese and European makers for the number of machineries that China want to buy in order to stop china semiconductor industry (again, just in its infant state) from making any progress. SMIC can only produce chips for the Chinese in the foreseeable future as it will not have the ability to buy new tools. Business is about cutting the other's guy throat and drive him out of the market with any kind of tactics and the Chinese is really good at this and now they will have a taste of their own medicine.

China also manufacture semiconductors equipment, there is a Chinese company in every single field in the semiconductor industry, etchers from AMEC are verified by tsmc for their 5nm process.
Also those export controls are usually imposed depending the level of China semiconductor equipment, by example export control for etching machines where dropped once China ability to produce those equipment increased with Naura and Amec. i am starting to hear rumors that SMEE will produce 28nm lithography machines late this year that will be a huge jump from the 90nm that produce today and will send alarms ringing all over the semiconductor industry forcing companies like ASML and Nikkon to put pressure to their governments.
People tend to forget that the real cause why China semiconductor had so low market share has to do more with complacency than technical ability, the Chinese created this vicious cycle of buying foreign semiconductors and equipment instead of helping the localization of their own industry. By exporting the U.S. and other countries inadvertently contained the Chinese semiconductor industry, that why export controls are dropped every time the Chinese technical abilities increase, this create a vicious cycle in which Chinese companies will never have market share and therefore enough money to grow.
But for some reason the Americans have decide to change that, in other words they change the supply now they will see change in the demand. according to the economist "EAR-Free" is now become a new catchphrase in China, that remember of a another term that people use... "ITAR-Free" that term that decimated the American satellite industry, let wait and see what will happen.

 

[tower9]

China also manufacture semiconductors equipment, there is a Chinese company in every single field in the semiconductor industry, etchers from AMEC are verified by tsmc for their 5nm process.
Also those export controls are usually imposed depending the level of China semiconductor equipment, by example export control for etching machines where dropped once China ability to produce those equipment increased with Naura and Amec. i am starting to hear rumors that SMEE will produce 28nm lithography machines late this year that will be a huge jump from the 90nm that produce today and will send alarms ringing all over the semiconductor industry forcing companies like ASML and Nikkon to put pressure to their governments.
People tend to forget that the real cause why China semiconductor had so low market share has to do more with complacency than technical ability, the Chinese created this vicious cycle of buying foreign semiconductors and equipment instead of helping the localization of their own industry. By exporting the U.S. and other countries inadvertently contained the Chinese semiconductor industry, that why export controls are dropped every time the Chinese technical abilities increase, this create a vicious cycle in which Chinese companies will never have market share and therefore enough money to grow.
But for some reason the Americans have decide to change that, in other words they change the supply now they will see change in the demand. according to the economist "EAR-Free" is now become a new catchphrase in China, that remember of a another term that people use... "ITAR-Free" that term that decimated the American satellite industry, let wait and see what will happen.

These bans are counter productive. Sure, they will hurt Huawei in the short term. Sure, China has missing gaps in its semiconductor supply chain which will be hurt by this, especially in the next 5 years. But I really wouldn't underestimate China's capabilities when it is placed in a fight or die war footing. Particularly with the amount of STEM resources they have now, I think in the long run, Trump is just shooting himself and American industry in the foot.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Consider what we did as in response to China's unprecedented violations of IP related issues. When we supported China's entry into the WTO, it was with the generosity in attitudes that China will play by the rules. China's violations of assorted agreements over the 20 yrs have been so obvious that you guys cannot deny but now actually celebrated as a strategic win. Bully for you that you managed to convinced a naive US presidential administration. I will give you that. Do not even try to portray China as innocent victim. Target? Yes. Victim? Debatable at best. But innocent? Pure bullshit.



No, the highlighted will not happen. Simply put, China does not have a viable ideological alternative. When it come down to it, any cold war requires ideological contestants and China is not one of them. Who in the First World category wants to be like you? Like it or not, the brutish Orange One have torn away the facade that is the current world order. Clump rampaged thru the China shop and left Comrade Xi in shock. Bump will not be in office forever but his legacy regarding China will last for decades. That growing economy? It will be US.

US alliances in the Cold War weren't unconditional, they were predicated on 3 things:

1. the US was 40% of global GDP in 1950 with nobody else even close
2. the Soviets could not offer similar economic benefits
3. the US was at the forefront of leading edge consumer technologies and applications.

The Soviets couldn't offer a growth engine for the Warsaw Pact like the US did for NATO so it played the ideology game. This won a few conflicts off of ideological fervor but at the end of the day, US cash exhausted Russia.

Today US isn't nearly as dominant economically like it was in 1950. Today the US is the one offering ideology, and China is the one offering an economic growth engine. And today, China is the one leading on new consumer technologies like 5G, AI applications, etc. We all know how that turns out. People don't need ideology, nobody wants to be dictated to, especially when they think their own model is working fine.

 

[tower9]

US alliances in the Cold War weren't unconditional, they were predicated on 3 things:

1. the US was 40% of global GDP in 1950 with nobody else even close
2. the Soviets could not offer similar economic benefits
3. the US was at the forefront of leading edge consumer technologies and applications.

The Soviets couldn't offer a growth engine for the Warsaw Pact like the US did for NATO so it played the ideology game. This won a few conflicts off of ideological fervor but at the end of the day, US cash exhausted Russia.

Today US isn't nearly as dominant economically like it was in 1950. Today the US is the one offering ideology, and China is the one offering an economic growth engine. And today, China is the one leading on new consumer technologies like 5G, AI applications, etc. We all know how that turns out. People don't need ideology, nobody wants to be dictated to, especially when they think their own model is working fine.

not to mention China doesn’t make countries choose, the US does and it’s putting countries in a difficult position that they resent. It’s a stupid strategy

 

[Han Patriot]

All semiconductor machineries are produced by European and Japanese and those are U.S allies. The U.S can easily influence the European and Japanese for not selling to china any of those machineries and china semiconductor industry (which is in its infant state) will stand still. The U.S can also reimburse the Japanese and European makers for the number of machineries that China want to buy in order to stop china semiconductor industry (again, just in its infant state) from making any progress. SMIC can only produce chips for the Chinese in the foreseeable future as it will not have the ability to buy new tools. Business is about cutting the other's guy throat and drive him out of the market with any kind of tactics and the Chinese is really good at this and now they will have a taste of their own medicine.

You forget we also produce our own machinery.

US alliances in the Cold War weren't unconditional, they were predicated on 3 things:

1. the US was 40% of global GDP in 1950 with nobody else even close
2. the Soviets could not offer similar economic benefits
3. the US was at the forefront of leading edge consumer technologies and applications.

The Soviets couldn't offer a growth engine for the Warsaw Pact like the US did for NATO so it played the ideology game. This won a few conflicts off of ideological fervor but at the end of the day, US cash exhausted Russia.

Today US isn't nearly as dominant economically like it was in 1950. Today the US is the one offering ideology, and China is the one offering an economic growth engine. And today, China is the one leading on new consumer technologies like 5G, AI applications, etc. We all know how that turns out. People don't need ideology, nobody wants to be dictated to, especially when they think their own model is working fine.

Yes I saw the video by Mahbubani, really good analysis. US is ghe kleptocracy of interest groups while China is the meritocracy. US couldn't reduce their defense spending even if they want to due to the influence of the interest groups l. He advised US to reduce military spending and invest in their infrastructure healthcare and education. I mean when you need to pay 2k for covid testing, you know there is a big problem with US.

 

[Bilal.]

China also manufacture semiconductors equipment, there is a Chinese company in every single field in the semiconductor industry, etchers from AMEC are verified by tsmc for their 5nm process.
Also those export controls are usually imposed depending the level of China semiconductor equipment, by example export control for etching machines where dropped once China ability to produce those equipment increased with Naura and Amec. i am starting to hear rumors that SMEE will produce 28nm lithography machines late this year that will be a huge jump from the 90nm that produce today and will send alarms ringing all over the semiconductor industry forcing companies like ASML and Nikkon to put pressure to their governments.
People tend to forget that the real cause why China semiconductor had so low market share has to do more with complacency than technical ability, the Chinese created this vicious cycle of buying foreign semiconductors and equipment instead of helping the localization of their own industry. By exporting the U.S. and other countries inadvertently contained the Chinese semiconductor industry, that why export controls are dropped every time the Chinese technical abilities increase, this create a vicious cycle in which Chinese companies will never have market share and therefore enough money to grow.
But for some reason the Americans have decide to change that, in other words they change the supply now they will see change in the demand. according to the economist "EAR-Free" is now become a new catchphrase in China, that remember of a another term that people use... "ITAR-Free" that term that decimated the American satellite industry, let wait and see what will happen.

Exactly what I was thinking about ITAR. ITAR free actually is a selling and marketing point nowadays (in fact since a few years) and slowly but surely eroding away the industrial base of America as it gets replaced in global supply chain by restrictions imposed by own self. In short term they may believe they gained a tool of control but in longer run it’s clear that they basically shot themselves in the foot by the restrictive policies.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

When Huawei was banned everyone was talking how Huawei wouldn't survive with U.S. chips, i say that Huawei wouldn't have trouble making those chips, the fact the Huawei was able to produce hardware without U.S. chips should have serve as a warning that U.S. supremacy is chip technology is not set in stone but is a product of trust or supply and demand, i find very strange that tsmc was able to continue to manufacture chips for hisilicon, which mean that tsmc use of U.S. technology was below the threshold of 25% that means is not impossible for them to get rid of rest in other not to lose the Chinese market and that could be the future, even U.S. companies are not going to want to lose the Chinese market just for geopolitics, there exist the possibility the U.S. companies move their R&D and manufacturing out of the U.S. to frendlier countries.
Why they continue with this strategy?
Because i think that the hawks in the GOP want to decouple U.S. Companies from China even if that mean that will accelerate China semiconductor industry and cost hundred of thousands jobs in Silicon Valley "who cares they vote democrat anyway". They think that will lead two fronts in tech, but they are so wrong because this could cause irreparable harm to the U.S.
This are the same people who tough that Iraq was going to be a walk in the park and the reconstruction will only cost 20 billions. The same people who sleep walked the U.S. towards the subprime crisis and not Peter Shiff is not a genius the fraud was pretty obvious. The same people who botched the response to the coronavirus pandemic costing 100K lives. The same people that are sleep walking the U.S. into an economic depression meanwhile wasting trillions in wall street speculators.

 

[Han Patriot]

When Huawei was banned everyone was talking how Huawei wouldn't survive with U.S. chips, i say that Huawei wouldn't have trouble making those chips, the fact the Huawei was able to produce hardware without U.S. chips should have serve as a warning that U.S. supremacy is chip technology is not set in stone but is a product of trust or supply and demand, i find very strange that tsmc was able to continue to manufacture chips for hisilicon, which mean that tsmc use of U.S. technology was below the threshold of 25% that means is not impossible for them to get rid of rest in other not to lose the Chinese market and that could be the future, even U.S. companies are not going to want to lose the Chinese market just for geopolitics, there exist the possibility the U.S. companies move their R&D and manufacturing out of the U.S. to frendlier countries.
Why they continue with this strategy?
Because i think that the hawks in the GOP want to decouple U.S. Companies from China even if that mean that will accelerate China semiconductor industry and cost hundred of thousands jobs in Silicon Valley "who cares they vote democrat anyway". They think that will lead two fronts in tech, but they are so wrong because this could cause irreparable harm to the U.S.
This are the same people who tough that Iraq was going to be a walk in the park and the reconstruction will only cost 20 billions. The same people who sleep walked the U.S. towards the subprime crisis and not Peter Shiff is not a genius the fraud was pretty obvious. The same people who botched the response to the coronavirus pandemic costing 100K lives. The same people that are sleep walking the U.S. into an economic depression meanwhile wasting trillions in wall street speculators.

It shocked Trump when Huawei made all their products with zero US input. That was a big slap. This will be a temporary set back until our semicon equipment matures.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

It shocked Trump when Huawei made all their products with zero US input. That was a big slap. This will be a temporary set back until our semicon equipment matures.

I think Trump really want to do business, even with Huawei

https://twitter.com/x/status/1229790099866603521

he is a businessman a really bad one but a businessman nerveless, the real reason of him banning Huawei was probably because he is angry because everybody is blaming him for his response to the virus. I guess he called Xi in the morning and ask him if he can take blame for the virus by saying "it was a lab accident" and the response was not very positive.
The real problem are the ideological overzealous GOP hawks cold war warriors, those are the ones who wants to decouple American companies from Chinese costumers because they think that China buying American technology is somehow worse than Americans companies getting revenue and market share in China

 

[Han Patriot]

I think Trump really want to do business, even with Huawei

https://twitter.com/x/status/1229790099866603521

he is a businessman after a really bad one but a businessman nerveless, the real reason of him banning Huawei was probably because he is angry because everybody is blaming him for his response to the virus. I guess he called Xi in the morning and ask him if he can take blame for the virus by saying "it was a lab accident" and the response was not very positive.
The real problem are the ideological overzealous GOP hawks cold war warriors, those are the ones who wants to decouple American companies from Chinese costumers because they think that China buying American technology is somehow worse than Americans companies getting revenue and market share in China

I personally think Huawei was just collateral damage, he was using it as a negotiating card for trade war. The hawks are the ones who are really fanatical especially Michael Bolton.

I think China is buying time for the elections, judging from the current sentiment Trump will lose.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

I personally think Huawei was just collateral damage, he was using it as a negotiating card for trade war. The hawks are the ones who are really fanatical especially Michael Bolton.

I think China is buying time for the elections, judging from the current sentiment Trump will lose.

Dont waste time expecting Trump to lose,Chinese companies need accelerate the localization of their semiconductor industry. Companies need to collaborate between each other to create a feedback loop. I think China also need big open source projects like RISC-V, especially in the EDA sector to accelerate the creation of native tools and IP , something like the OpenRoad project of Darpa. But even working with native EDA companies can help to increase their presence in the market.
This not something that China will solve from the top alone, its need to be solve from the bottom too by Chinese companies. Chinese companies need to know that sadly from now on buying American products and equipment will come with a huge asterisk that can destroy their products, brands and R&D money. Remember complacency was what brought Huawei to this situation

 

[Han Patriot]

Dont waste time expecting Trump to lose,Chinese companies need accelerate the localization of their semiconductor industry. Companies need to collaborate between each other to create a feedback loop. I think China also need big open source projects like RISC-V, especially in the EDA sector to accelerate the creation of native tools and IP , something like the OpenRoad project of Darpa. But even working with native EDA companies can help to increase their presence in the market.
This not something that China will solve from the top alone, its need to be solve from the bottom too by Chinese companies. Chinese companies need to know that sadly from now on buying American products and equipment will come with a huge asterisk that can destroy their products, brands and R&D money. Remember complacency was what brought Huawei to this situation

I think they realise it now, but it will take 5 to 10 years for near total independence. Now we will have to use temporary alternative and make sure Trump loses.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

I think they realise it now, but it will take 5 to 10 years for near total independence. Now we will have to use temporary alternative and make sure Trump loses.

I could happen faster than most people think.

 

[tower9]

I could happen faster than most people think.

i doubt they haven’t been frantically preparing for this ever since zte was caught off guard in 2018. I think they just don’t publicize their advances anymore just like how they have the fastest supercomputer but have not publicized it.

 

[Han Patriot]

i doubt they haven’t been frantically preparing for this ever since zte was caught off guard in 2018. I think they just don’t publicize their advances anymore just like how they have the fastest supercomputer but have not publicized it.

Yah they did not submit it to top500. Afraid that US will feel threatened. Lol