Should Pakistan Replace C-130 With IL-76?

[Moon]

Pakistan has operated the C-130 Hercules for over 55 years many of these airframes are very old and have alot of flying hours. It has proven itself as a workhorse and is in services with many countries of the world even today, further there are newer versions of this old design still being produced.

The IL-76 makes perfect sense as a replacement for the C-130 namely for the following reasons:

• The IL-76 is already in service the PAF in tanker form
• The IL-76 is a proven design and a workhorse, yet it is larger than the C-130
• The US is not a reliable arms supplier as evident historically and we must reduce our dependence and purchases from the US.
• The IL-76 purchase/replacement of the C-130 will help build on the much improving Russia-Pakistan relations
• The IL-76 is in service with many countries around the world and so obtaining spares will not be difficult.
• The IL-76 is a relatively cheaper transport aircraft given the number produced and available
• The exisiting C-130 aircraft in service are very old and in need of replacement.

We have a requirement of approximately 20 IL-76 to replace the 18 odd C-130 that we currently have in service.

To give you an indication the cost, The Russian airforce ordered 39 IL-76MD-90A for approximately $4.5 billion, so for 20 we can expect just over $2billion.

You can see the latest version that Russia is building and selling here:

How about we buy C-130 airframes from across the world, and invest in an overhaul facility? Plenty of C-130s in Gulf and UK, not to mention private airlines
There is no plane more reliable, convenient, sturdy and flexible than the Hercules.
We could probably double our fleet size with same money we'd be spending on new platforms.

Aren’t they making one C17 for India or the deal is off

Those are what called the "white tails".

C-17 White Tails Down to Five - Defense Security Monitor

by Ray Jaworowski, Forecast International. The number of white tail C-17 aircraft being built by Boeing before closure of the production line later this year is now down to five. …

dsm.forecastinternational.com

Basically surplus aircrafts, which Boeing hopes to sell after they shut down the C-17 production line. (For a nice premium).

 

[WalterWhite]

Brits are retiring some C-130 J's we could offer them something, other than that the only sensible investment would be A400 M's which lies in between the category of C-130 and C-17 globemaster

 

[Keysersoze]

OP has asked a completely wrong question. Instead of asking whether we need to replace C-130s, we need to ask "Do we need to supplant C-130s?" And the answer is yes. We have a need to drop heavy ordnances in large numbers from a long range against enemy troops, equipment, and ships. There are certain other things about which I don't want to talk.

I know you have likely seen the footage of the Lockheed JSAAM palletised launcher, but that is the kind of luxury that the US can afford. Ordanance can be deleivered without slow lumbering transport planes in the relatively narrow Pakistani airspace.

 

[Muhammad Omar]

Yes. But can we say that for all of our major airstrips (military bases and Civilian airports) ??

We can say majority can support even Civilian airports including Lahore Karachi Faisalabad Islamabad Peshawar

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

The IL-76/78 serves a different role than the C-130s in the PAF.

The IL-76/78 works really well as a strategic air-lifter for sensitive or heavyweight loads. However, the C-130 is a critical asset to logistically connecting our inaccessible areas, e.g., rough airstrips and high-altitude environments. The Herc is a solid tactical air-lifter and reliable logistics workhorse. To be frank, the majority of old Herc operators ultimately concluded that "only a Herc can replace a Herc." It's no different for the PAF. The PAF prefers getting the C-130J or even LM-100J to replace its old C-130s.

The only 'non-US' workaround I can think of is acquiring both the Embraer C390 and Leonardo C-27J.

The C390 can handle the workhorse logistics work. I don't know if the C390 is any good for rough and/or high-altitude airstrips, but for moving fighter parts, radars, etc between our key bases, the C390 should do well. In fact, the C390 uses the same engines as the A320, so it should be pretty fuel-efficient too.

The C-27J can operate in high-altitude and rough airstrips. It uses the same turboprop engine and propeller blades as the C-130J. The payload of the C-27J isn't as high as the C-130J, but at 10-11 tons it's pretty respectable. In enough numbers, the PAF could potentially offset the capability loss of retiring the C-130s.

However, the PAF prefers 16 C-130Js plus 4 A330 MRTTs and 4-8 'strategic' air-lifters akin to the A400M or Y-20. @SQ8 @kursed @JamD

 

[Trailer23]

However, the PAF prefers 16 C-130Js plus 4 A330 MRTTs and 4-8 'strategic' air-lifters akin to the A400M or Y-20.

I'm sorry, but you say, "PAF prefers..." is that based on PAF inquiring for such Aircrafts in the past?

And would you rule out any possible interest in the long haul for the C-27J (Spartan)?

 

[SQ8]

The IL-76/78 serves a different role than the C-130s in the PAF.

The IL-76/78 works really well as a strategic air-lifter for sensitive or heavyweight loads. However, the C-130 is a critical asset to logistically connecting our inaccessible areas, e.g., rough airstrips and high-altitude environments. The Herc is a solid tactical air-lifter and reliable logistics workhorse. To be frank, the majority of old Herc operators ultimately concluded that "only a Herc can replace a Herc." It's no different for the PAF. The PAF prefers getting the C-130J or even LM-100J to replace its old C-130s.

The only 'non-US' workaround I can think of is acquiring both the Embraer C390 and Leonardo C-27J.

The C390 can handle the workhorse logistics work. I don't know if the C390 is any good for rough and/or high-altitude airstrips, but for moving fighter parts, radars, etc between our key bases, the C390 should do well. In fact, the C390 uses the same engines as the A320, so it should be pretty fuel-efficient too.

The C-27J can operate in high-altitude and rough airstrips. It uses the same turboprop engine and propeller blades as the C-130J. The payload of the C-27J isn't as high as the C-130J, but at 10-11 tons it's pretty respectable. In enough numbers, the PAF could potentially offset the capability loss of retiring the C-130s.

However, the PAF prefers 16 C-130Js plus 4 A330 MRTTs and 4-8 'strategic' air-lifters akin to the A400M or Y-20. @SQ8 @kursed @JamD

I think the C-390 has great potential beyond airlift as the KC-390 as well. It could also be leveraged as discussions to see if Lockmart bites and pushes for approval of Js for Pakistan.

Not that keep on the spartan because the hub-spoke airlift capability hasn’t built out that well nor is it a requirement per se. if anything, that’s something Cessna Caravans could handle fairly well.

 

[CriticalThought]

I know you have likely seen the footage of the Lockheed JSAAM palletised launcher, but that is the kind of luxury that the US can afford. Ordanance can be deleivered without slow lumbering transport planes in the relatively narrow Pakistani airspace.

And you are thinking too narrowly. How about a transport flying over Persian Gulf/Arabian Gulf or Afghanistan targeting mainland India with standoff weapons? Take a look at these use cases:

And just to show that these use cases aren't outside the realm of possibility, here are some ranges for Tomahawks:

Tomahawk (missile family) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And finally, to your argument about America having luxury, let me remind you that Feb 27 represents a total out-classing of the opponent. This is achieved by having command over tactics and technology that only world powers can dream about. Don't think small when you are thinking PAF.

The above was all about long range. But there is also a need for massive amounts of ordnance. Those massive amounts can only be achieved through transports.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

I think the C-390 has great potential beyond airlift as the KC-390 as well. It could also be leveraged as discussions to see if Lockmart bites and pushes for approval of Js for Pakistan.

Not that keep on the spartan because the hub-spoke airlift capability hasn’t built out that well nor is it a requirement per se. if anything, that’s something Cessna Caravans could handle fairly well.

Though they're marketing it, Embraer is still testing the C390. They can't guarantee a lot of things yet as the aircraft is incredibly early in its lifecycle. Brazil has a hot-and-high requirement similar to that of the PAF, so I think making the C390 work from high-alt and rough strips is a requirement of theirs, it just takes time to certify that capability.

That said, KC-390 aspect is super interesting in that if the aircraft is designed for the tanker role from the onset, then can the PAF swap out the Cobham AAR pods for the UPAZ ones?

I'm sorry, but you say, "PAF prefers..." is that based on PAF inquiring for such Aircrafts in the past?

And would you rule out any possible interest in the long haul for the C-27J (Spartan)?

Yep. The PAF has been after C-130Js at some level for a while. In the mid-2000s there was a real thought that the PAF would retire its legacy Hercs with all C-130Js in the 2020s. This was around the time the PAF said it wanted 55 new Block-52+, so confidence was quite high that the C-130J would factor in eventually. However, our finances and ties with the US (plus aid) all tanked since then.

Leonardo had marketed the C-27J to the PAF, and I saw senior PAF officers inquire about it during IDEAS 2018. But I don't think interest is serious at the moment.

 

[WarKa DaNG]

C 130 is used as tactical transport capable of takeoff and landing from unprepared runways

 

[adelphi]

To be frank, the majority of old Herc operators ultimately concluded that "only a Herc can replace a Herc." It's no different for the PAF. The PAF prefers getting the C-130J or even LM-100J to replace its old C-130s.

One option might be to acquire c-130s left over in Afghanistan. I don't think Taliban can maintain them.

 

[applesauce]

The purchase price of C17, US military is US $150 million and that of India is US $580 million. The performance of Y20 is similar to that of C17, so $160 million is not expensive. And Pakistan is sure to get the best price.

all Y-20 right now is going to the PLA, there is no production space for exports. china literally cant get enough of the y20 for itself atm. if pakistan wants to buy it, they're going to have to wait many years.

 

[Aasimkhan]

The IL-76/78 serves a different role than the C-130s in the PAF.

The IL-76/78 works really well as a strategic air-lifter for sensitive or heavyweight loads. However, the C-130 is a critical asset to logistically connecting our inaccessible areas, e.g., rough airstrips and high-altitude environments. The Herc is a solid tactical air-lifter and reliable logistics workhorse. To be frank, the majority of old Herc operators ultimately concluded that "only a Herc can replace a Herc." It's no different for the PAF. The PAF prefers getting the C-130J or even LM-100J to replace its old C-130s.

The only 'non-US' workaround I can think of is acquiring both the Embraer C390 and Leonardo C-27J.

The C390 can handle the workhorse logistics work. I don't know if the C390 is any good for rough and/or high-altitude airstrips, but for moving fighter parts, radars, etc between our key bases, the C390 should do well. In fact, the C390 uses the same engines as the A320, so it should be pretty fuel-efficient too.

The C-27J can operate in high-altitude and rough airstrips. It uses the same turboprop engine and propeller blades as the C-130J. The payload of the C-27J isn't as high as the C-130J, but at 10-11 tons it's pretty respectable. In enough numbers, the PAF could potentially offset the capability loss of retiring the C-130s.

However, the PAF prefers 16 C-130Js plus 4 A330 MRTTs and 4-8 'strategic' air-lifters akin to the A400M or Y-20. @SQ8 @kursed @JamD

Y9s are perfect, no need for Western aircraft, buy them in numbers, they are good enough for our needs.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Y9s are perfect, no need for Western aircraft, buy them in numbers, they are good enough for our needs.

Y9's maybe good enough for AEW&C which by their nature do not fly much unless there is a situation going on.

Transport planes fly all the time and in that case the maintenance costs and operating costs of the Y9 will be a problem. Cost per hour is a very important metric for transport/logistics planes.

So - Y9 is not good enough for PAF ...

 

[Aasimkhan]

Y9's maybe good enough for AEW&C which by their nature do not fly much unless there is a situation going on.

Transport planes fly all the time and in that case the maintenance costs and operating costs of the Y9 will be a problem. Cost per hour is a very important metric for transport/logistics planes.

So - Y9 is not good enough for PAF ...

Please explain how per hour flying cost of Y9 is more than other similar transport aircraft