THE CONSEQUENCES OF A PAKISTANI SEA-BASED NUCLEAR SECOND STRIKE CAPABILITY
DRDO's Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile K-4 & K-15 Sagarika
by Ankit Panda
What happens to South Asian nuclear stability if Pakistan operationalizes a sea-based second strike capability?
Last week, Franz-Stefan Gady provided a helpful round-up of the confusing evidence surrounding the existence of Pakistan’s sea-based second nuclear strike capability. Since 2012, when Pakistan created its Naval Strategic Force Command, there has been considerable concern, in India and elsewhere, that Pakistan is close to imminently operationalizing a sea-based second strike capability. Though analysts remain divided over the question of how far Pakistan has taken its sea-based deterrent (we know, for example, that Pakistan has neither the quantity nor quality of submarines to effectively implement this yet), it’s worth understanding the consequences of such a development on strategic stability in South Asia.
First, what we know now suggests that any Pakistani sea-based second strike capability will depend on a sea-launched variant of the Hatf-VII Babur cruise missile. The Hatf-VII, a medium-range subsonic cruise missile, tops out at a range of 700 km, meaning that a submarine-based launch system would need to operate in waters relatively close to the prospective enemy’s shores (in Pakistan’s case, India). This brings up a problem for Pakistan’s plans for a sea-based deterrent that more established nuclear powers with sea-based deterrents such as the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom haven’t faced. The credibility of a second strike capability lies in the difficult of detecting submarines carrying submarine-launch ballistic missiles. Undersea radars and other anti-submarine warfare techniques, already a major point of interest for the Indian armed forces, could undermine Pakistan’s sea-based deterrent.
Interestingly, this observation means that the actual specifications of the submarine being engineered for Pakistan’s sea-based deterrent, with the help of China, is less interesting than the actual delivery vehicle. Even if Pakistan manages to operate submarines on par with China’s Type 032 Qing-class or Type 041 Yuan-class, capable of launching longer-range land attack cruise missiles (a max range of 1,500 km), these missiles are only capable of being armed with “unitary tactical nuclear warheads,” according to globalsecurity.org – a far cry from the strategic nuclear deterrent necessary to credibly field a second strike capability. Experts note that Pakistan will need a submarine fleet comprising 14 vessels in order to keep one nuclear-armed sub on stand-by at all times. Back under Pervez Musharraf’s leadership, Pakistan planned to expand its fleet to 12 vessels.
Additionally, as Bruno Tertias noted in a thoughtful post over at the Lowy Interpreter last year, even if we generously acknowledge a credible strategic sea-based second strike capability to Pakistan, there is no reason to believe that conventional strategic stability logic would apply; i.e., sea-based second strike capabilities existing on both sides of the India-Pakistan nuclear balance would lead to better long-term stability.
Also worth noting is that currently, nuclear escalation in South Asia is not an entirely frictionless process given India’s mostly credible No First-Use doctrine and Pakistan’s claim that it keeps its warheads separated from its launchers (even though it maintains a First-Use policy for deterrent purposes). For a conflict across the Radcliffe Line to escalate into a full-blown strategic nuclear exchange, Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA) would have to explicitly authorize nuclear use. A Pakistani sea-based deterrent would make this traditional decoupling of warheads from launchers less viable and, as a result, make nuclear first-use by Pakistan more likely. Not only will this possibility cause Indian strategic planners to lose sleep, but it would draw considerable concern from the United States and other nuclear powers.
The above reasons, in addition to the purely financial constraints Franz outlined in his piece, suggest that a sea-based second strike option for Pakistan is both a costly acquisition and one without a guarantee of giving Islamabad the upper-hand in the South Asian nuclear arms race. With India’s K-15 Sagarika, K-4, and Agni-VI SLBMs on the horizon of entering service, Islamabad will do everything it can to keep up. Additionally, a second-strike capability is important given Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth and the possibility of India modifying its NFU doctrine in the future (though I question the utility of India abandoning NFU altogether).
2nd STRIKE
In nuclear strategy, second strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker. To have such an ability (and to convince the opponent of its viability) is considered vital in nuclear deterrence, as otherwise the other side might be tempted to try to win a nuclear war in one massive first strike against the opponent's own nuclear forces.
Theory
The possession of second strike capabilities counters a first strike nuclear threat and can support a no first use nuclear strategy. Reciprocal second strike capabilities usually cause a mutual assured destruction defence strategy, though one side may have a lower level minimal deterrence response. An example of how second strike capability can be strengthened is the implementation of fail-deadly mechanisms. "When you talk of second strike capability, it means that when the mobile moves on surface whether on rail or on road, it will easily be detected by either intelligence or from the satellite imaging, but in this case, if you keep it either underwater or underground, certainly you won't be able to detect it. It is very difficult to detect."
India 2nd strike capability
1.NUCLEAR SUBMARINE
A.
Russian submarine K-152 Nerpa
The K-152 Nerpa (Russian: К-152 «Нерпа») is a 8,140-tonne (8,010-long-ton) Project 971 Shchuka-B (NATO: Akula II) type nuclear-powered attack submarine. Construction was started in 1993, but suspended due to lack of funding. K-152 Nerpa was launched in October 2008 and entered service with the Russian Navy in late 2009. The submarine will eventually be leased to the Indian Navy in 2011 and recommissioned as the INS Chakra. It will be armed with the 300 km (162 nmi; 186 mi)-range 3M-54 Klub nuclear-capable missiles
B.
Arihant class submarines [nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines]
The Arihant class submarines (Sanskrit: अरिहंत:, meaning "Slayer of Enemies") are nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines[6] being developed for the Indian Navy. The INS Arihant was introduced to the public on July 26, 2009 at a symbolic launch ceremony, which consisted of floating it by flooding the dry dock.[7] The Arihant class is India's first indigenously designed and built nuclear submarine. The class is expected to consist of four vessels to be in commission with the Indian Navy by 2015-2020, with a further four vessels planned to follow on. The Arihant class vessels were designed as a part of India's US$2.9 billion project to design and build nuclear-powered submarines.
The Arihant class may possibly be armed with the existing 750 km K-15 Sagarika SLBM. The under-development 3500 km range K-4 an SLBM version of Agni-III, 5,000-6,000 km range K-5 an SLBM version of Agni-V.
2.Shaurya (missile)
The Shaurya missile (Sanskrit: Valour) is a canister launched Hypersonic surface-to-surface tactical missile developed by the Indian Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) for use by the Indian Armed Forces. It has a range of between 750 to 1900 km and is capable of carrying a payload of one ton conventional or nuclear warhead.It gives the potential to strike in the short-intermediate range against any adversary.Shaurya can reach a velocity of Mach 6 even at low altitudes. Top DRDO scientist has confirmed this and said that this missile after taking off and reaching a height of about 50 km will start flying like a Hypersonic cruise missile. Once it reaches the target areas it maneuvers towards the target before striking with an accuracy of 20 to 30 m within the target area. The Shaurya missile provides India with a significant second strike capability
3.Aircraft Carriers
A.
INS Viraat
INS Viraat (R22) (Sanskrit: विराट, Virāṭ. "Giant" ) is a Centaur class aircraft carrier currently in service with the Indian Navy. INS Viraat is the flagship of the Indian Navy, the oldest carrier in service and one of two aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean Region.
The Viraat was completed and commissioned in 1959 as the Royal Navy's HMS Hermes, and transferred to India in 1987. In 2009 there were reports that after that year's refit was concluded, India might keep the aircraft carrier in service until 2020. By then, the warship would have completed 60 years of service, over twice its initially estimated sailing life of 25 years. At that time the two Indigenous Aircraft Carriers (IACs) seemed likely to be fully operational, which was the reason to keep Viraat operational until then, according to un-named Navy officers
Aircraft Carries: Up to 30 aircraft, including
British Aerospace Sea Harrier FRS51
Westland Sea King Mk.42B-C
HAL Chetak
HAL Dhruv
B.
INS Vikramaditya
INS Vikramaditya (Sanskrit: विक्रमादित्य, Vikramāditya, "Brave as the Sun") is the new name for the former Soviet aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, which has been procured by India, and is estimated to enter service in the Indian Navy after 2012.The Vikramaditya is a modified Kiev class aircraft carrier built in 1978–1982 at Black Sea Shipyard, Mykolaiv, Ukraine. The ship is presently being extensively refitted at the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia.
Aircraft carried:
20-24 Mikoyan MiG-29K
6 HAL Tejas
10 helicopters mix of
Ka-28 helicopters ASW
Ka-31 helicopters AEW [4]
HAL Dhruv
C.
INS Vikrant
The Vikrant class aircraft carriers (formerly, the Project 71 "Air Defence Ship" (ADS)) are the first aircraft carriers of the Indian Navy to be designed and built in India. They are being built by Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL). The Vikrant class carriers will be the largest warships built by CSL. Work on the lead vessel of the class started in 2008, and the keel was laid in February 2009. The first carrier of the class was expected to enter service by 2012-2013.
Aircraft Carries: Up to 30 aircraft, including
British Aerospace Sea Harrier FRS51
Westland Sea King Mk.42B-C
HAL Chetak
HAL Dhruv
D.
INS Vishal
IAC2 could have a CATOBAR layout, because India showed interest in the new US Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System . Among the five aircraft for which the Indian Navy has sent Requests for Information (RFI) are the F-35C, the carrier-based variant of the F-35 Lightning II , the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (made by Boeing for the US Navy), Eurofighter Typhoon (EADS supported by a European consortium), Sukhoi for Sukhoi Su-33, SAAB for Sea Gripen (version of Gripen adapted for carrier operations) and France’s Dassault Aviation for the Rafale.
India’s biggest military hardware supplier, Russia, which was asked for information on the Sukhoi Su-33, has opted out of the race saying it is phasing out the plane, a navy source told The Telegraph. The Indian Navy had originally not sent an RFI to Sweden’s SAAB but the company expressed interest and has sent a request for the naval variant of the Gripen JAS 39.It is likely to be operational by 2018-2020
:
