SAC - FC-31 Grey Falcon Stealth aircraft for PAF : Updates & Debate

[SQ8]

Pakistan was never looking for the J-31.

 

[Yeti]

I kinda lost faith on Washington based intelligence officials when they couldnt even dig out the those hypothetical WMD's in Iraq and fought the whole damn war over it/

They knew there was no WMD's but they wanted to go to war and needed a reason but their reason was found out in the end.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Fair enought, J31 is still a developping aircraft, it's too earlier to compare with F-35 without a proper 5th gen engine, and i dont want to bragg any further beyong this point. But on this 5th gen aircraft market, there is only few choice availalble F-35, J31, India's version of PakFA. Pakistan can only chose between F-35 and J-31, politically J-31 is not an restriction for Pakistan and will definitely much more cheaper while F-35 will be problem because India will do everything it could to block it.

No we dont and we cant. USA have sold all their top of line weapon systems to Pakistan in the past, and still now, F16 is their frontline AF. But F-35 comes with a lots of strings attached like ToT, no modifying equipments.. If Pak can go with that costlier bird they can go to it.
J31 is also a 5th gen AF. However I am not sure if Chinese would share ToT with Pakistan for now. But it is going to be cheaper than 35 bird for sure.

 

[Spy Master]

Pakistan was never looking for the J-31.

what do u mean by this?

 

[GR!FF!N]

Dude, I am talking at today's prices. As prices rise for arms and so a country's GDP also rises.

Consider the cost of F-15 was around 20 million each in the 1980s. They now come in at 100 million each 30 years later. Indian economy in nominal terms is nearly TEN times larger than it was 30 years ago and hence F-15 has become more affordable over time for it.

Probably Pakistan won't grow as fast as India but it will grow quickly enough that any increase in the J-31 price will be compensated by increased GDP.

J-20 is estimated to be 100 million dollars each, current prices, and J-31 will be cheaper at around 75 million dollars.

Current flyaway cost of F-35 is a little under 100 million each and so 75 million for each J-31 is reasonable.

Need any further teaching today?

Real world doesn't work what you've mentioned dude.

see the cost of Su-27 an F-15 in 1980s.and see the cost now.whatever you've mentioned is just the flyaway cost.its way way more costly whatever these aircrafts are flying.they integrate their own modifications and equipments.its called Weapons System Cost,and that increases the cost generally some 40% more...plus,it'll take more to modify for future scenario.and thats what increases more..

eg.

Lockheed stated that 5th lot of F-35s costs over $146.3 million,and its average cost of the various variants.and these are flyaway cost.

but in fact it is way way more..when you divide the money you payed with the numbers of aircraft you get,it costs some $223 Mil.

US Govt didn't even provide the Weapons System Cost of F-35.
plus,there is always the issue of Cost Escalation and Overruns,which are very very real for any project.

when you anticipate these informations,it'll going to provide how costly the J-31 could be.cost of a 5th Gen(don't know the Chinese one,but the other projects and their estimated costs) generally runs in hundreds of millions,not less than hundred.

time to read this news properly....

GAO Draft Slams F-35 On ‘Unaffordable’ Costs: $8.8B Over Legacy Fighters « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary

now,unless they're going to provide a 5th gen aircraft on 4th gen's cost(and/or Capability),I don't see how China will make your dream possible.hell,even our latest Su-30's cost nearly 100 million a piece,forget about cost of Super MKI.and these are very 4th gen.

and one thing,the cost of F-35 is not decreasing that much...

Analyst: F-35C to Cost $337 Million Apiece in FY15 | DoD Buzz

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

This is how things are done when tech or production of a component is out of reach at the moment. Granted that engines are the most important component but waiting for it to be done till you start on other things seems like a waste of time. You can believe me that they are working on those engines you speak of. They will be happy and proud of even flying a 3rd generation plane with the potential of becoming a 5th generation one rather than waiting on having everything at once. The amount of research and knowledge they have gained by jumping into and flying this project is immense. The Russians are doing the same thing. This is what should have been done with the LCA as well.

If you read my comments properly, I am not making fun of J31 or anything. They have something instead of nothing, and if we take out the equation of 5th gen engines, it might still become a decent platform.
I am just telling those, who are talking as if J31 is now the direct competitor to F35 bird, when it is clearly not the case. The amount of research put into F35 is miind boggling. Of course you do not need me to tell you the comparison of apples and oranges.
Let J31 take time.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

most reasonable post by an indian, for electronic wise J-20 and J-31 is far far behind from F-22/F-35 but for the engine wait some more year i think it will be reaveld in 2016 or17 we might see LOAN type nozzle just like F-22 have,
as for your information in the starting of a ATF program sevral design presented to pentagon just like J-20/J-31, i mean today J-20/J-31 have a frontal stealth and less on a rear

Engine wise it is going to take more time for the Chinese. The WS10 4th gen engine platform is still facing problems. And the Russians are still working on 5th gen engine.. So it is going to take after 2020 for the 5th gen engine for a realistic date. However J31 might enter service with a Russian Engine or a Chinese 4th gen Engine.
Electronics wise, PAKFA and J20 for now are behind F22, the great. Both are in testing phase, and we cannot know how it is going to fare in the future.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sure, but J-20 is very expensive, so J-31 which costs about 80 million per unit will be more suitable economically.

The relation between J-20 and J-31 is similar to F-22 and F-35.

I still don't see the PAF being able to afford to operate a twin engined fighter in large numbers, it would have been a far more attractive product had the J-31 been design with one engine but obviously there is no suitable such engine out there available to China so the compromise had to be made.

I'd say the PAF are more than likely going to order a 5th gen fighter by 2020 given the IAF is set to get theirs around that time and the nature of these two airforces has always been tit for tat, the PAF just wouldn't allow itself to be so publicly inferior.

 

[Viking 63]

Don't worry we don't need Al-31 engines Chinese will make sure to have these birds flying on their home made engines. I can guarantee you that PAF will fly these Birds in Big numbers.

 

[Storm Force]

Indian FGFA will not arriving until 2025.

5 years after the PAK FA enters Russian service.

AND I DONT TRUST IAF even getting it ion 2025

looks like the PAF will have J31 before india gets FGFA

 

[Basel]

Not just the engine they want the AESA new radar on the SU-35 which is quite advanced.

nope, they don't want its AESA as China is ahead in this electronics and their industry learned initial lesson from west and they have already fielded many AESA radar on different platform including fighter jet, how many AESA radar on different platform are fielded by Russians till now?

 

[Basel]

Pakistan was never looking for the J-31.

Yes, Pakistan was not looking for J-31 but SAC is looking for partner in J-31 and Pakistan is likely candidate for it but CAC will not like to lose its client to another company.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

J-31 with the WS-13A engine in the 2012 display mockup and the WS-17 engine in the 2014 display mockup.

 

[tarrar]

J31 is very young & it will take time for J31 to develop completely.

I see China really working hard on J20 more than J31. any how lets wait & see what happens, PAF is looking for a modern & advance fighters so lets hope for the best.

 

[UKBengali]

@GR!FF!N: I am only interested in flyaway cost as that will be the price that Pakistan will pay China for each J-31. Other costs will be budgeted separately like weapons, infrastructure and training.

The US arms manufacturers even profit from selling to the US government and make even more money per plane when it sells overseas.

Chinese will be able to build their plane cheaper and will sell at cost price to their number one ally Pakistan. 75 million dollars each, at today's prices, is a reasonable estimate of how much Pakistan will be charged by China for each J-31.

I expect Pakistan to buy between 100-150 J-31s, dependent on how their economy performs over the next 1-2 decades.