Let me play devil's advocate here. We cannot just blame Journos on such news
1) If given an option, IAF would prefer Grippen over LCA. Currently IAF's focus has been on pushing RAFALEs. Once RAFALEs deal is out of the way their attention would move to Grippen
2) SAAB being just an integrator with no sanction proof cannot be an argument as LCA is also in similar state with no indigenous engine. Also, BJP is West leaning. So there is no worry of sanctions as long as they are in power.
3) After pitching for AF version, SAAB is now pitching for Naval version to ensure that it can provide the same variety as LCA
4) LCA Naval, MK1A and MK II are still years away from induction. This is the right time for making the push to replace LCA with Grippen. LCA Mk1 would be inducted in nominal numbers, if at all it attains FOC.
5) There is strong industry and political lobby behind this proposal
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Excellent point sir, a lengthy reply.. but pls bear with me.. this could turn out to be a good discussion..
Now for all points
Point 1: Light category IAF wants an Indian bird which is cheap to the max o $30-35Mn per bird so that in Medium and Heavy category it can go for foreign birds which are more costly in acquisition as well as in operations..LCA whose role is clearly defined implies regular more sorties and less operational cost or life time cost. Thus, IAF is strategically clear about Light category. Its issue is non performance and delay by HAL.
If say IAF does acquire a foreign asset for light category, its budgetary constraints will have a deeper impact on medium and heavy category. Secondly, cost of operations will cripple airtime per year down from avg 250 hours a year to more of 150-180 hours a year to ensure non ballooning of operational costs. This significantly downs our pilot preparedness program and strategy evolutions. Lastly, Gripen being a new setup indicates a capex cost for base setup and maintenance depot setup.. all indicates financial mess..
2. Partially correct. heart is Ge 404 fam after all. But Gripen has lot more of integration than LCA which has definitely Indian parts too. Its sanction proof theory is correct but localisation of all Gripen components, systems, sub systems to OEM (which are mostly foreign) setting up shops in India will be a long process implying cost reductions would take time and will require a big order of at least 100-150 birds for economies of scale.(Remember USA folks said 200 F18s for Indian production). Biggest difference is commonality part.. Israeli radar Elta 2052 AESA Radar and Derby Python combination may need a much deeper change in Gripen whose arms are mostly western. The Indian LGBs also will need newer coding.. All this takes time and importantly India will have to pay money for "modifications and customization" and Israel has to agree with IAI for such integration..Trainer version Like LCA LIFT if anyis also going to be additional burden on us.
3 and 4
Its apparently clear that Saab has talked about everything right from consulting role, to helping LCA IAF version but in return it always wants orders and believes Gripen NG fits Indian's needs and now Sea Gripen fits Naval needs. But then how come consulting and making a product which is direct competitor to your own product helps you as a business group.
LCA may be around 35-40% of the cost of Gripen so technically once LCA is fully flying its export potential as well as domestic market competition within India directly kills the Gripen. Unless, Gripen takes 15 years to expertly "consult" in LCA project and in that time frame ensures all its jets are inducted....
Its offering for IAF version, Naval version, TOT at a cost of investment, etc etc are all marketing terms to make it sound attractive.. But in clear hindsight, they are just trying to play with fears of MOD as HAL LCA are running a bit late and hence sense a opportunity to sell a product which kills the whole LCA program a slow silent poisoned death.
Mark 1A is coming with 120 jets total... So a similar number effectively kills Mark2 product as a whole. Similarly Sea Gripen 50-60 odd will kill NLCA similar size numbers. As requirements are met then why the new order. And what about the infused costs by IAF and IN till today or MOD sanctioned budget till date for these products.
5. Point 5
Yes Sir, you are correct about Fadnavis. A local newspaper said Fadnavis (backed by a pune based industrial group) informed PM NaMo about Saab Gripen proposal and he requested NaMo to accord it a status under MII. Now what was in it for Fadnavis? Saab said the whole plant and setup will come in Maharastra.
Fadnavis even went to the extent of meeting DM MP and impressing that this "light fighter" would suit India's need.
Link:
Make in India: Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in talks with Swedish defence company Saab Group to set up unit in state - timesofindia-economictimes
Excerpts:
At a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is busy drumming up support for his high-decibel Make In India campaign, Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has quietly initiated talks with Swedish defence company Saab Group to set up a production unit in his state.
Just back from the Hanover Fair 2015, where he had gone to promote Maharashtra, Fadnavis spoke exclusively to ET on Thursday, saying that his government has begun a dialogue with Sweden's Saab Group to team up with Pune-based Bharat Forge for setting up a defence production unit in Maharashtra soon.
Fadnavis said Saab expressed interest in setting up a manufacturing base in Maharashtra and even presented a business plan with transfer of technology and a proposal to collaborate with Indian companies if land and power are assured to them. Saab Group is a Swedish aerospace and defence company specialising in radar and avionics. Fadnavis held a series of meetings with Swedish defence, aerospace, radar and avionics experts, and showcased the obvious advantages of Maharashtra — Air Force maintenance command in Nagpur and Indian aeronautic manufacturing unit in Nashik. The Maharashtra CM said his aim was to market Maharashtra as the largest base for the German engineering industry
But the result was not in expected lines. Reason being MII is suppose to flow via PMO & MOD Central government route not via State Government being the lead marketer and Central government being the implementer.. In fact its the other way around.
@dadeechi Excellent devils advocate.. i was looking to find someone who says in favour of Saab Gripen and hypothetically discusses the merits of the product for India..
@Abingdonboy @FrenchPilot @anant_s
Sirs, pls correct me if i am wrong in my writing..
