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Are they even close to getting this?

What is in the us package and what are the timelines of delivery?

I am afraid the support is “too little too late” to stop russia in donbass.

Ofcourse if this war rages on another year then its a different matter.
Ukraine says the army is under extreme pressure, the delivery is too slow, it only gets 10 percent of weapons that were promised. But the time is on Ukraine side Russia can’t afford a war of attrition. Even the East front is captured Ukraine army will attack again. Either Putin can take Kiew or this war will last for years.
 
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This is not about me taking sides, this is me being pragmatic - Ukraine cannot defeat Russia. We will see peace talks at some point with the end game bring the Russian majority territory of Ukraine being ceded to Russia. Once again this is not about emotions, the only alternative is a leadership change within Russia or an escalation of the current war. Both are less likely than the territory hand over IMHO
Well..i think ukraine can defeat russia.
But not in a relatively fast/clean conflict but only in a longer protracted war as western supplies finally then build up in enough numbers.

Considering the huge cost (global economy down the drain, food shortages, ukranian military and civilian cost) and that it will still lead to an unstable result (russian majority areas are not over the moon to be part of ukraine and actually failing all their “goals” will be a humiliation for russia) i think they should try to agree to some compromise where parts of donbass territory are ceded.

However perhaps after they see how the ukranian mobilisation army with western weapons pans out (late summer/autumn) Especially around cherson.
 
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China provides Russia with intel from China's recon satellites. Ukrainian HIMARS aren't given long range missiles, only 34 km range basic rockets. It's pretty much the same as Uragan in terms of range. And we saw what happened to Ukraine's Uragans.

Not to mention Russia's attack choppers like Havoc and Alligator which fly low can prowl around and hunt down Ukrainian HIMARS after detecting and tracking them with radar.
Notice how those russian helicopters fire rockets in a 45 degree angel from the russian side of the front on most videos posted here? Russian helicopters are not going to ”prowl around and hunt” anything deep into ukrainian territory
 
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Russia should also realise the risk of overextending.
Not only will this lead to insurgancy in areas where the population opposes them, but it will also remain a casus belli for ukraine.



Even if ukraine will have to cede territory for a peace deal because they have to little artillery, and it takes too long to train troops on Nato weapons….
Inflow and training will however continue. We saw the differences in capability ukranians between 2014 and 2022.
How will the balance be in 2025 if the ukranians are completely refitted with nato weapons and fully trained on them?
 
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It's not decline, decline mean they have had made progress. In this case, if they are still using WW2 or WW1 style tactics, that mean The Russian Military did not made any progress since 1940

The problem as most military analyst see is the recent "Military reform' championed by Shoigu. Before this war, probably around 2010 (Can't remember when Shoigu were appointed Defence Minister, and don't bother to look up), Shoigu started making changes to Russian military deployment order, moving on from the tradition Regimental deployment that was used since cold war.

The change was supposedly reflect battlefield changes and give Russia a more "Organic" deployment, however, no other changes was adjusted to that effect, everything from staff management to logistic (Oh logistic) remain the same, using the same concept since cold war.

Smaller organic unit needs mobility and instant support to make it work, otherwise when you are getting pin with a smaller unit (as it happened in Battle of Kyiv) you are going to get bogged down. There are 2 major issues as we can see from the current war. 1.) not enough use of the Air Force 2.) The phaseline concept of Logistic simply cannot cope.

In smaller unit engagement, air support are primary, since you need to out manoeuvre your enemy, by putting troop and supporting element in place before your enemy did, the only way you can do so is by air, which would require a complete dependent of the Air Force. However, the old Soviet concept have set that Air Force is a supplementary element with its role relegated to supporting the ground movement. With that, Air Force don't fly SEAD, and take out Air Defence and the only role of the Russian Air Force is for Close Air Support. And without that air dominance, you don't get to deploy troop from A to B quicker than the Ukrainian did, especially Ukrainian have the home turf. That is why the Russian unit did make some initial gain but all but evaporated at the later stage of the first phase.

Just to make a major comparsion, according to US Air Force (which monitor Air Sortie in Ukraine) Russian launched some 300 air sorties during the first month in war. At the first Iraq war, US and Coalition launched over 100,000 in the entire air phase (also lasted roughly a month) of Gulf war, preceding he land incursion. You can't achieve air superiority with 300 sorties no matter how incompetent your enemy air defence is.........

Another issue Russian facing is the logistic can't cope with the current reform, as the concept of logistic has not undergo reform. in the old way, logistic is done by rail and logistic hub were litter around the rail line. That is due to the fact that since cold war, Russian Army move in bulk, deployed with regiments and you supply the troop in a regimental scale. However, this is not going to work when you break down the unit into battalion side and try to support each Battalion by land. Compare the US Concept of logistic, the log train goes from regional command (in Afghanistan for example, there are 4 regional command, RC North, South, East and West) and from those Regional Command, dedicated logistic line were use to feed troop forward deployed using medium lift helicopter and dedicated convoy network, say if I want to supply my troop in Kandahar region, first I fly my supplied to KAF then filter them out to each camp, and from then either fly them our of truck them into each FOB.

In Ukraine, this is not done, everything done thru central axis, so where your troop goes, your logistic goes, that's mean both log train and troop uses the same MSR to get into position, the heavy use of roadway plus being able to ambush would mean both troop and logistic would be stuck somewhere along the road simply because everyone is using the same road to get to where they want to go.....That's why you have that 60km convoy, it may look impressive but in realistic term, that is nothing but a giant target.

Which mean when they try their "BTG" concept, this is bound to fail, and when it does, Russia get no choice but to revert it back to how they used to fight, a giant fist depending on their artillery superiority that try to crush everything in its way, if you look at the current battle of donbas, you don't see Battalion Tactical group working individually fully taking advantage of their organic structure, but instead, you are seeing a giant blob of Russian force, that account for the slow progress in Donbas. In fact, it is lucky for the Russian, because if Ukraine have more artillery than they had or have a more competent air force, they can disrupt the Russian force by thinning out the herd.
Shoigu call himself Zhukov. But he has no military background, nor any war experience.

I will not trust a general who has no real military experience at all.

That's Putin's fault, appointed a man like Shoigu, humiliated Russia military.
 
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Shoigu call himself Zhukov. Then I knew he is a crap.
Shoigu is a dumb stooge. He is not military man. He is appointed by Putin because he is a loyal stooge. Nothing more. His previous position was minister for civil catastrophe.
 
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Shoigu is a dumb stooge. He is not military man. He is appointed by Putin because he is a loyal stooge. Nothing more. His previous position was minister for civil catastrophe.
War and military is an expertise, especially in 21st century. In WW2, Soviet outnumbered Nazi Germany, and Soviet can accept a loss of 26 millions. But it's not the case today.

Russia in on par with Ukraine on tactic, with stronger logistics and firepower, but that's all.

This really disappointed me a lot.
 
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It's not decline, decline mean they have had made progress. In this case, if they are still using WW2 or WW1 style tactics, that mean The Russian Military did not made any progress since 1940

The problem as most military analyst see is the recent "Military reform' championed by Shoigu. Before this war, probably around 2010 (Can't remember when Shoigu were appointed Defence Minister, and don't bother to look up), Shoigu started making changes to Russian military deployment order, moving on from the tradition Regimental deployment that was used since cold war.

The change was supposedly reflect battlefield changes and give Russia a more "Organic" deployment, however, no other changes was adjusted to that effect, everything from staff management to logistic (Oh logistic) remain the same, using the same concept since cold war.

Smaller organic unit needs mobility and instant support to make it work, otherwise when you are getting pin with a smaller unit (as it happened in Battle of Kyiv) you are going to get bogged down. There are 2 major issues as we can see from the current war. 1.) not enough use of the Air Force 2.) The phaseline concept of Logistic simply cannot cope.

In smaller unit engagement, air support are primary, since you need to out manoeuvre your enemy, by putting troop and supporting element in place before your enemy did, the only way you can do so is by air, which would require a complete dependent of the Air Force. However, the old Soviet concept have set that Air Force is a supplementary element with its role relegated to supporting the ground movement. With that, Air Force don't fly SEAD, and take out Air Defence and the only role of the Russian Air Force is for Close Air Support. And without that air dominance, you don't get to deploy troop from A to B quicker than the Ukrainian did, especially Ukrainian have the home turf. That is why the Russian unit did make some initial gain but all but evaporated at the later stage of the first phase.

Just to make a major comparsion, according to US Air Force (which monitor Air Sortie in Ukraine) Russian launched some 300 air sorties during the first month in war. At the first Iraq war, US and Coalition launched over 100,000 in the entire air phase (also lasted roughly a month) of Gulf war, preceding he land incursion. You can't achieve air superiority with 300 sorties no matter how incompetent your enemy air defence is.........

Another issue Russian facing is the logistic can't cope with the current reform, as the concept of logistic has not undergo reform. in the old way, logistic is done by rail and logistic hub were litter around the rail line. That is due to the fact that since cold war, Russian Army move in bulk, deployed with regiments and you supply the troop in a regimental scale. However, this is not going to work when you break down the unit into battalion side and try to support each Battalion by land. Compare the US Concept of logistic, the log train goes from regional command (in Afghanistan for example, there are 4 regional command, RC North, South, East and West) and from those Regional Command, dedicated logistic line were use to feed troop forward deployed using medium lift helicopter and dedicated convoy network, say if I want to supply my troop in Kandahar region, first I fly my supplied to KAF then filter them out to each camp, and from then either fly them our of truck them into each FOB.

In Ukraine, this is not done, everything done thru central axis, so where your troop goes, your logistic goes, that's mean both log train and troop uses the same MSR to get into position, the heavy use of roadway plus being able to ambush would mean both troop and logistic would be stuck somewhere along the road simply because everyone is using the same road to get to where they want to go.....That's why you have that 60km convoy, it may look impressive but in realistic term, that is nothing but a giant target.

Which mean when they try their "BTG" concept, this is bound to fail, and when it does, Russia get no choice but to revert it back to how they used to fight, a giant fist depending on their artillery superiority that try to crush everything in its way, if you look at the current battle of donbas, you don't see Battalion Tactical group working individually fully taking advantage of their organic structure, but instead, you are seeing a giant blob of Russian force, that account for the slow progress in Donbas. In fact, it is lucky for the Russian, because if Ukraine have more artillery than they had or have a more competent air force, they can disrupt the Russian force by thinning out the herd.
Your analysis is accurate.

China military fans have observed Russia military reform since 2000s, I started to watch Russia military reform since 2010s.

China started military reform later than Russia, but relatively more successful. Russia tried several times to reform, back and forth, and now we knew it failed.

In China, we call Russia military reform as 1/2 reform, it only reformed the outside, but not inside. War and Military is an expertise, a highly specialized technique and requires a well functional organization, as well as huge resource.

China military reform actually learn from U.S. more than Russia. As you can see, China's military doctrine, equipment are more and more like U.S. instead of Russia.

If Ukraine got all the resources they needed from the very beginning, this war can be 10X more bloody and nasty.
 
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War and military is an expertise, especially in 21st century. In WW2, Soviet outnumbered Nazi Germany, and Soviet can accept a loss of 26 millions. But it's not the case today.

Russia in on par with Ukraine on tactic, with stronger logistics and firepower, but that's all.

This really disappointed me a lot.
Germany military is another league it can start WW3 tomorrow if fully rearmed. That’s unrealistic scenario though. Russia today is like Venezuela an energy rich country run by a bus driver. You can’t expect much from it.
 
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Yes many US servicemen would still alive. Most wars are worthless. sometimes people realize late why a war starts at all.
About weapons unbalance between Ukraine and Russia, it says 1:15. However it’s not certain at all Putin will win. The US lost the Vietnam war, despite 1:150 in US favor.

Ukraine will win this war, I have no doubt. I am willing to bet my car on this.


If Ukraine can keep it's independence and most of it's territory , than this is a win for Ukraine. And a huge success considering where it stood 3 months ago.

I do not think anyone expected this huge convoy near Kiev , to turn tail and run defeated , back to Russia. That was a huge victory for Ukraine.

Don't know if the Ukrainians can push all the Russians back to Russia , but they sure seem to be able to hold them off and make it their stay a costly one, specially if they get more weapons.

That may be enough for Russia to agree to end the war.


Main mystery here is what does Putin really want .

This " special operation " of his , which the name " Operation Grab What you Can " , is a rather more fitting name.

But reaching an agreement with this person , who so far has been far less than honest about what he really wants , does not look easy.



220216-putin-scholz-mn-1630-72c559.jpg
 
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Germany military is another league it can start WW3 tomorrow if fully rearmed. That’s unrealistic scenario though. Russia today is like Venezuela an energy rich country run by a bus driver. You can’t expect much from it.
I hope they invade France again. lol
 
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Your analysis is accurate.

China military fans have observed Russia military reform since 2000s, I started to watch Russia military reform since 2010s.

China started military reform later than Russia, but relatively more successful. Russia tried several times to reform, back and forth, and now we knew it failed.

In China, we call Russia military reform as 1/2 reform, it only reformed the outside, but not inside. War and Military is an expertise, a highly specialized technique and requires a well functional organization, as well as huge resource.

China military reform actually learn from U.S. more than Russia. As you can see, China's military doctrine, equipment are more and more like U.S. instead of Russia.

If Ukraine got all the resources they needed from the very beginning, this war can be 10X more bloody and nasty.
I don't agree with your understanding of the recent events. The first question that comes to mind is, does the Russian army want to fight a US style war? Occupy the target country under a fake excuse against the will of its inhabitants? The answer is NO, neither Russian economy can withstand such a scenario.

Russia wants its people stop suffering from western racial segregation. To reach this goal, they have to occupy Russian living parts of Moldova too.

In fact Russians are not going to occupy parts of EU, they want Russian lands return to their country. And so far they have used Soviets era military hardware against Ukraine for 2 reasons, first and foremost Ukraine is not a match to to RUssian military power, and secondly they save money by dropping outdated missiles on Ukrainian positions.

The fact that US led Euro-vassals hate RUssian speaking people, convinced Russia to defend its people from western led racism hence war on Ukrainian NAZIs.
 
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Shoigu is a dumb stooge. He is not military man. He is appointed by Putin because he is a loyal stooge. Nothing more. His previous position was minister for civil catastrophe.
The root clause of all these, as you may have guessed it, is money.

By using the Battalion Tactical Group, you effectively deploy 2 BTG per Regiment, but still keep the money for the entire regimental deployment, say it take 1 millions dollar (a hypothetical value, i dont' know how much it cost to maintain a Regiment) to upkeep a regiment, in effect, you only need to service 60% of those regiment to keep the BTG thing rolling, because that's roughly 60-65% of the entire regiment. And wonder where is the other money goes? Because you only need to maintain the unit (the BTG) you are sending the battle, you don't need to maintain the unit that was not attached to any BTG.

Any military reform have to studied and plan with a long lead in before hand, I think the entire restructure is done in about 3 months after he was appointed that position.

Shoigu call himself Zhukov. But he has no military background, nor any war experience.

I will not trust a general who has no real military experience at all.

That's Putin's fault, appointed a man like Shoigu, humiliated Russia military.
The last guy he replaced is not any good as well.

IIRC he started another military reform to install a professional NCO corps and reduce the number of Officer, he did the later part not the first part..

That in a way have a direct contribution why Russia is losing a lot of General in this war, what has it up to now? 11?
 
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Again, otherwise we would have force Afghan government hand and turn over everything...And again, we have 20 years to do that, if we want to suck everything out, 20 years is more than enough. I mean look at Russia, taking part of Ukraine for over 100 days, already stolen millions tons of grain, think about what 20 years can do, if we want to do it?

Did we do that? no.
US couldn't exploit the natural resources of Afghanistan due to stiff resistance of Taliban. US control the (Big) cities, rural areas were contested or controlled by warlords including Taliban's. US companies would be stupid to invest their resources there.
By the way US military took 20 tons of Afghanistan's gold (the real money).
 
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