Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499069611215519748

 

[Corax]

I wanted to reply here for several days but my personal affairs got in the way. Anyhow, much has happened since when I first wanted to write but still relevant as my understanding is with respect to Putin's strategy.

Right now, there is a massive disinformation campaign against Russia. I for one believe that Russia had to act at some point and this is quite understandable. Putin has been appealing to the US and the rest of Europe to not put him in this situation. Although the West emerged victorious from the cold war, it failed to disband Nato which was no longer needed. But sometimes politics loves to keep such organisation alive for one reason or the other.

With its core purpose dead i.e. to stand up to the Soviet Union, the West needed a reason to keep this going and it was not easy. How do you continue to fight when you are all alone and victorious? The US attempted to re-purpose its role in Afghanistan and we all know how that turned out. Twenty plus years and nothing to show for it. Despite the slogans the West throws, they are for internal consumption only and they are never sincere with them. The will do away with them when it best serves them. This naked hypocrisy is on full display and it is evident that it was pent up and building for this very moment.

Anyhow, Putin did try to befriend Europe and did open up Russia to the West. Credit should be given where it is due. But it was his bad luck or misery that the West just did not want to be Russia's friend. Instead, the West provoked, as they always do, despite Putin's appeal not to do so. Putin persisted and sought ways to resolve these things diplomatically. However, the West just never wanted to settle for a simple diplomatic solution, they were not done to continue stomping on the successor of the Soviet Union...a "I spit on your grave" angle.

So, the US and allies planned, they always wanted to hurt Russia and never wanted to be friends with it. They wanted to break up Russia further because, lets face it, it was still a formidable state with an arsenal that could hurt the US.

The West schemed and planned for this very day and encroached bit by bit trying so that Russia could take the bait. And Russia took it.

Now, you may think that this is an unfortunate situation for Russia but it is not. Having observed Putin, he is one of the world's most talented leaders and delivers when least expected. He planned just as the West did. What we see now is his plan in motion and it is easy to dismiss it as a failure based on the disinformation campaign.

Putin trialled the West response with the annexation of Crimea. This was the watershed moment for Russia. This was the time to call bluff on Nato and its allies. They made a lot of noise and failed. This was a warning to Ukraine to not challenge Russia any further. Since 2014 till 2022 i.e. eight years is what it took for Putin to exhaust all options with the West while preparing new options with the East.

Putin did not take the bait, he has made a calculated move against a move the West played years ago. To the West, Putin has taken the bait and is unleashing its strategy based on that. Unfortunately for the West, this is not the 80s or 90s anymore. The days are gone when the leader "of the free world" would instantaneously command all democracies to fall in line against USSR. Russia, has done well to open up and deal with several democracies, it has crept in and on them and addressed their interests. It has fractured that alliance which is now getting tested.

Russia has played its cards pretty well. It is the one of the largest producers of Oil and Gas. Its major market is Europe. It has integrated with the western system, a ploy to play by their rules to be accepted, to be let in. It knows that severe sanctions can and will be imposed upon it

Lets now see where Russia stands:

1) The war in Ukraine does not end the demand for oil & gas. The price per barrel has shot up and may well go higher. Can the West afford such high oil prices? The US may be delighted but it will not give charity.
2) Cutting Russia off Swift is a double edged sword. Yes, it will affect Russia's interest in Europe but what if this pushes Russia to adopt CIPS instead? This will be a profound change and will give Putin immense leverage and the stick to break Nato.

Now, imagine a scenario:

The West has cut Russia off completely, and thoroughly sanctioned. Russia, stops the flow of Oil & Gas and food production to the West. The price oil per barrel is now $130 and every oil producer is merry except Russia.

Then Russia announces it is selling oil at $80 per barrel via CIPS. What do you think will happen? Germany, Turkey and others will be keen to get their hands on this oil. But they are part of the Western bloc and staunch Nato members. They decide to find a way around the current sanctions and start trading.

Eventually, every Western country finds out and this brings about disunity in Nato's ranks. Clearly, it will be obvious that Russia is not the USSR but a country that is selling cheaper oil. Its all a matter of interests for the western countries at the end of the day. This will effectively shatter Nato.


This is just an example of what is to come. The time and era is gone for Nato. The western sanctions and dominance is near its end. This is going to hasten that. Putin has gambled and placed the bait and the west has happily taken it thinking they are outsmarting Putin. Time will tell who is the ultimate loser.

Emotions are high for the west and common sense is absent. Let the war go on for some more days and weeks, then it will no longer be headlines. Ukraine will slip into the background and the momentum in disinformation will be lost. When the effects of sanctions on Russia are felt back home, many Western countries will break rank and file. That is when Nato will be finished and Putin would have won.

I agree with a lot of your thoughts, there was no reason to keep NATO after the end of the Cold War, and should have been disbanded, much like the Warsaw Pact was. It has been used by the US to keep its grip on European policy, especially towards Russia. However, hasn't Putin played into the US trap here? He's doing the very thing that the US wants, and to justify having NATO in the first place. Won't this only strengthen NATO, not weaken it? The US has been asking European NATO members to increase their defence spending, and this is exactly what Germany has done, and probably more to follow. Moreover, it has also turned Europe against Russian influence in the region. As much as the sanctions will hurt both Russia and Europe, and given the decarbonisation trend anyway, this has only accelerated Europe's attempts to abandon fissile fuels anyway, and move to alternative sources and energy. Russia hasn't done much in that regard, and will probably hurt it more if there is a complete ban on Russian oil and gas. In addition, Europe could source their supplies from the US and Middle East instead.

 

[Dragons]

LOL.. Isnt the one that crashed recently? Why shall China worry about it? No matter how is upgrade, it is still an old airframe which is prone to crashed or non optimum use due to not able to pull 9G.

They have long range BVR which means they could by default contest the air superiority

 

[ADIL SHERDIL]

France to send 4 Rafale fighters plus 2 fuel tankers to Poland.

Germany sends 2,700 of its Reserved Strela MANPADs to Ukraine along with an unknown number of Pantherfast anti armor ammunitions.

Estonia sends unknown number of FGM-148 anti armor to Ukraine.

USA will Upgrade 141 Taiwanese F-16 to V standard including a phased array radar. They have sent new V versions F-16 to Taiwan airforce. (note the coincidence)

i can understand what the rest are doing but US has its own agenda. If you can destroy one country try your best so that others can destroy them. What has US to gain from this sale.

Only LGBT seems to be neutral.

lol, you got that right on.

The UK Department for Transport said on Wednesday that oil and gas from Russia could still be imported into Britain despite Russian ships being banned from entering British ports.

Russia can still send oil and gas to Britain despite port ban

Russia can still send oil and gas to Britain despite a ban on the country's ships visiting British ports, the Department for Transport (DfT) said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Lol...

Just look at the hypocrisy of the Brits, They were the loudest before the war but now they are no where to be found.

 

[Tornado23]

Top Russian General KILLED 'in special operation'​

Putin blow as Belarus morale 'extremely low'

VLADIMIR Putin faced a severe blow on Thursday after Belarusian soldiers said they "do not want to play the role of Russian mercenaries" and that their morale is "extremely low."

www.express.co.uk

"A comrade of the General announced vis social media that Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Russian Ground Forces had been killed. Sergey Chipilev wrote: "With great pain, we learned the tragic news of the death of our friend, Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky, on the territory of Ukraine during the special operation. We express our deepest condolences to his family."

How reliable/true is this?

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499037866780811267

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499368007147139072

 

[8888888888888]

@Beast @8888888888888

more Chinese sanctions to Lockheed and those responsible.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499037821809483785

 

[LeGenD]

I wanted to reply here for several days but my personal affairs got in the way. Anyhow, much has happened since when I first wanted to write but still relevant as my understanding is with respect to Putin's strategy.

Right now, there is a massive disinformation campaign against Russia. I for one believe that Russia had to act at some point and this is quite understandable. Putin has been appealing to the US and the rest of Europe to not put him in this situation. Although the West emerged victorious from the cold war, it failed to disband Nato which was no longer needed. But sometimes politics loves to keep such organisation alive for one reason or the other.

With its core purpose dead i.e. to stand up to the Soviet Union, the West needed a reason to keep this going and it was not easy. How do you continue to fight when you are all alone and victorious? The US attempted to re-purpose its role in Afghanistan and we all know how that turned out. Twenty plus years and nothing to show for it. Despite the slogans the West throws, they are for internal consumption only and they are never sincere with them. The will do away with them when it best serves them. This naked hypocrisy is on full display and it is evident that it was pent up and building for this very moment.

Anyhow, Putin did try to befriend Europe and did open up Russia to the West. Credit should be given where it is due. But it was his bad luck or misery that the West just did not want to be Russia's friend. Instead, the West provoked, as they always do, despite Putin's appeal not to do so. Putin persisted and sought ways to resolve these things diplomatically. However, the West just never wanted to settle for a simple diplomatic solution, they were not done to continue stomping on the successor of the Soviet Union...a "I spit on your grave" angle.

So, the US and allies planned, they always wanted to hurt Russia and never wanted to be friends with it. They wanted to break up Russia further because, lets face it, it was still a formidable state with an arsenal that could hurt the US.

The West schemed and planned for this very day and encroached bit by bit trying so that Russia could take the bait. And Russia took it.

Now, you may think that this is an unfortunate situation for Russia but it is not. Having observed Putin, he is one of the world's most talented leaders and delivers when least expected. He planned just as the West did. What we see now is his plan in motion and it is easy to dismiss it as a failure based on the disinformation campaign.

Putin trialled the West response with the annexation of Crimea. This was the watershed moment for Russia. This was the time to call bluff on Nato and its allies. They made a lot of noise and failed. This was a warning to Ukraine to not challenge Russia any further. Since 2014 till 2022 i.e. eight years is what it took for Putin to exhaust all options with the West while preparing new options with the East.

Putin did not take the bait, he has made a calculated move against a move the West played years ago. To the West, Putin has taken the bait and is unleashing its strategy based on that. Unfortunately for the West, this is not the 80s or 90s anymore. The days are gone when the leader "of the free world" would instantaneously command all democracies to fall in line against USSR. Russia, has done well to open up and deal with several democracies, it has crept in and on them and addressed their interests. It has fractured that alliance which is now getting tested.

Russia has played its cards pretty well. It is the one of the largest producers of Oil and Gas. Its major market is Europe. It has integrated with the western system, a ploy to play by their rules to be accepted, to be let in. It knows that severe sanctions can and will be imposed upon it

Lets now see where Russia stands:

1) The war in Ukraine does not end the demand for oil & gas. The price per barrel has shot up and may well go higher. Can the West afford such high oil prices? The US may be delighted but it will not give charity.
2) Cutting Russia off Swift is a double edged sword. Yes, it will affect Russia's interest in Europe but what if this pushes Russia to adopt CIPS instead? This will be a profound change and will give Putin immense leverage and the stick to break Nato.

Now, imagine a scenario:

The West has cut Russia off completely, and thoroughly sanctioned. Russia, stops the flow of Oil & Gas and food production to the West. The price oil per barrel is now $130 and every oil producer is merry except Russia.

Then Russia announces it is selling oil at $80 per barrel via CIPS. What do you think will happen? Germany, Turkey and others will be keen to get their hands on this oil. But they are part of the Western bloc and staunch Nato members. They decide to find a way around the current sanctions and start trading.

Eventually, every Western country finds out and this brings about disunity in Nato's ranks. Clearly, it will be obvious that Russia is not the USSR but a country that is selling cheaper oil. Its all a matter of interests for the western countries at the end of the day. This will effectively shatter Nato.


This is just an example of what is to come. The time and era is gone for Nato. The western sanctions and dominance is near its end. This is going to hasten that. Putin has gambled and placed the bait and the west has happily taken it thinking they are outsmarting Putin. Time will tell who is the ultimate loser.

Emotions are high for the west and common sense is absent. Let the war go on for some more days and weeks, then it will no longer be headlines. Ukraine will slip into the background and the momentum in disinformation will be lost. When the effects of sanctions on Russia are felt back home, many Western countries will break rank and file. That is when Nato will be finished and Putin would have won.

You are very optimistic about Russian options and leverage.

Vladimir Putin was doing well until he decided to invade Ukraine. Have a look at my take on this matter:

Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

Does someone know where Mexico stands on this conflict? Has Mexico put sanctions on Russia as well?

defence.pk

Putin have managed to rejuvenate NATO instead; more countries are willing to join NATO now:

Kosovo parliament urges government to start NATO membership bid

Neutral Finland, Sweden Warm To Idea Of NATO Membership

Through the Cold War and the decades since, nothing could persuade Finns and Swedes that they would be better off joining NATO — until Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.huffpost.com

Russian economy took a hit from the sanctions imposed on it by USA in 2014 - dropped from 5th spot to 11th spot in the (2014 - 2021) period. This was the situation when much of Europe was supporting Russia all along.

But things are changing now - and fast.

You mentioned CIPS but is it good enough to rescue Russian economy by itself? It will be a lifeline at most. Fairly good explanation in following article:

‘No desire to pay’: China’s manufacturers feel the pain of Ukraine crisis

China is the largest trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine, but sanctions from the US and its European allies have started to be felt by customers in both countries.

www.scmp.com

And this:

“Both the US and UK financial sanctions against Russia will lead to an increase in the volume of yuan transactions in terms of Russian-Chinese trade. This may be one reason for the strong yuan, but a strong yuan is bad news for China’s export sector,” Zheng said.

More:

MSN

Europe is in search for alternative to Russian gas in Africa:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/europe-could-reduce-imports-of-russian-gas-by-more-than-a-third-in-a-year-iea-0

AZA Finance FX Week Ahead: Russia trade war puts African gas in focus

As Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine continues to intensify and Western sanctions on Russia mount, so the likelihood increases of Moscow retaliating by shutting off its gas supply to European markets.

thebftonline.com

https://www.ippmedia.com/en/features/europe-can-look-africa%C2%A0-preferred-gas-supplier

LNG also stepping up its game:

Energy group safeguarding Europe’s LNG supply

An association of 84 companies involve in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is working to ensure that a stable supply of LNG remains available as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate.

www.gasworld.com

Let us not delude ourselves - some of the greatest minds are in the Western hemisphere.

The rules of game will change for all involved. China will also have to come to terms with appreciation in Yuan in coming years. There are trade-offs.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499287417576112128

 

[LeGenD]

LOL.. Isnt the one that crashed recently? Why shall China worry about it? No matter how is upgrade, it is still an old airframe which is prone to crashed or non optimum use due to not able to pull 9G.

Airframes can be fixed and life extended.

USAF is revisiting much of its F-16 fleet as well.

608 U.S. Air Force F-16s Are Getting The Type's Largest Combined Upgrade Package Ever

The project will add a new advanced radar, communications suite, and electronic warfare system to the best of the Air Force's fleet of aging Vipers.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Zibago]

Russians are going to encircle Kiev and then they will batter the city into submission like what they did in Syria.

Exactly
People dont understand Russian mentality its still the old red army doctrine

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499306252001808390

So on this end, the Russians are making progress.

 

[Beast]

Airframes can be fixed and life extended.

USAF is revisiting much of its F-16 fleet as well.

608 U.S. Air Force F-16s Are Getting The Type's Largest Combined Upgrade Package Ever

The project will add a new advanced radar, communications suite, and electronic warfare system to the best of the Air Force's fleet of aging Vipers.

www.thedrive.com

No necessary true. There is a limit and there are many times, user are warn not to pull 9G for old upgraded airframe.

In war, can you tell your enemy, not to pull 9G to chase your tail?