Fascinating reading this thread.
This is my best PDF experience so far. This is why I am coming here now.
If this isn't a demonstration of the slow death of the Western world
The death for the West is premature,
but it is 1000% the death of US positions in the Western world. The eyes in EU capitals are on Washington, as much as on Ukraine.
While Putin's Russia has the West scrambling around for a response, and potentially escalating the conflict to the rest of Europe, China must be thinking about the potential opportunities to pick up the pieces and vacuum left behind.
All depends on Xi. Xi completely gutted the cabinet, and whatever professional political institutes we had, and he himself is indeed infatuated with Putin. He thinks of him as his blue eyed boy =D.
I know that the newer generation of 1970-1980 lieutenants in the CPC are way more "ambitious and vicious," than people who grew up old red China. Unlike them, they never seen life in a real communist system as adults. They don't have the same "mental inhibitions" which statist communist/marxist mental framework put on the cultural revolution generation elites.
If Xi will side with young lieutenants, then he will lose power, because they will kick out either him or his supporters, and if Xi will do nothing, and keeps his current course, he will lose power too! He already spends near all his free time fighting the fire in his own political camp, while still having to keep an eye on The Uncle Toad.
If you see the list of all people he purged recently, most never been in Jiang's camp.
Let the West fight amongst themselves and with Russia, while it galvanises its position and emerges as the new global power, rather like how the US emerged from the ashes of WWII.
My fear is that Xi will squander this once in a lifetime opportunity. Why I think so:
- Xi always been a party politician. Party first, everything else, including the world affairs second. He is completely oblivious to the outside world, and is reliant on his advisers to tell apart Putin from Bush. So far they taught him that "Putin good, Bush bad." He is a natural isolationist.
- Even if he will make a move, he will act on advisers advice, and trade China's stance (inaction) for concessions from the West on current issues. He will then use this credit to prop up his standing with the party, thus throwing any opportunity to extract gains from this crisis out of the window. The West will eventually be done with Russia, and return to peck at us.
- He is afraid of internal enemies, as much as "internal friends." Any group within the party which comes on top of any major discourse is his next enemy. If somebody will come forward with the idea of "Lets Build a Sinocentric New World Order," and, maybe, even does execute on it with some result, Xi will pounce on him.
Xi's goal, and aim in life of preserving the hollow Old Red Order means inaction, and stagnation for the Country.
Apart from the blatant hypocrisy on show by the West, it demonstrates to all their partner nations that they cannot be trusted.
100000000000000000000000000000%
This is a massive realignment of global strategic tectonic plates, with the World increasingly split again between the 'West', and a new 'Eastern block' comprising Russia, China, Turkey, Pakistan, and perhaps many more to come. A very interesting time in history to be living in, I must say.
There is the Western Bloc, it never went away after the cold war, but now it may be losing America.
But is there a new Eastern Bloc? There isn't. The Giants are sleeping. China under Xi is turning more, and more isolationist. India... is India, unless Modi dies tomorrow from a heart attack, or some other miracle happens, India will be out of action on the global stage for the next 5-10 years. Turkey, Pakistan, Middle East, sad to say the truth, but these counties hate each other more than communists, or capitalists, they will never work together. A United Africa with its 1000 tribes is more realistic than united Muslim world
.
My prognosis, it will be the Western Bloc, and nothing else for the lack of credible alternative, with empty area on the map in between Eastern Europe, and all the way to China.
The rest of Asia will actually be worse off, because Americans, and Europe will lose interest in playing games with them, when all their attention will be thrown to their Eastern border.
The instant evaporation of Russian economy will cause not a realignment of global strategic tectonic plates, but disalignment, and dispersion. No more Russian oil, no more Russian military hardware, no more Russian nuclear engineering, no more Russian resources on global markets, no more Russian klepto-money to prop Gaddafis
The new centre of gravity will not be here for the next 10 years, or more... unless 1) something happens in Beijing, 2) something happens in Delhi
As for Americans, they are really screwed both ways seemingly now. Choice 1 — a Dotard, Choice 2 — the Dotard, Choice 3 — there is no such choice. USA's only chance now would be for Democrats to
NOT nominate Biden for the re-election.
This war is definitely restarting the gears history, but not the way you think.
