Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

LMAO even Putin's whore is admitting Russia's three days special military operation isn't going according to plan

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522197114524258305

It's not a 3 day op. It is a 300 years op.

Russian RAPs have longer range, but we so far not seen Russian using 152mm anywhere close to its maximum range. On other hand, USA sent RAPs.

152mm outranges 122mm obviously, but there been no use of Russian artillery at ranges dramatically longer than 15km, except for shelling cities.

They have no FOs, and drone based killchains used by Ukrainians.

Ukrainians often use 122mm for CB by driving withing Russian range, and overwhelming Russian batteries with the rate of fire.

Howitzers typically can't be used at their max range or else accuracy will be shit. They are usually fired from a few kilometers away.

What would stop china to simply take it? Russia has no functional military.

Russia also is not Eurasia heartland. It has no people, poor economy and currently is sealed of from Europe

Unlike America, China respect other countries borders. China has never invaded another country throughout human history.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522094795354775552

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522082384186953729

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522189581654888448

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522190977569599490

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522203615921852416

 

[dbc]

Fair enough I'm sure this is accurate to an extent. But I do not think this is something to bank on. Will Russia simply sit on its hands during that time?

Recovery and refinery tech are not like mastering all known 7nm node production technologies. Not even like manufacturing other advanced technologies. Simply said, I think this obstacle, even if it is as extreme as a situation is hopeless now, they can overcome that. They can find ways around especially given time and definitely when they have the money to. Again this is not like buying nuclear technology or top secret stuff. Even if somehow their own cannot overcome technical problems, there are alternative solutions.

Certainly the details matter a lot here and unless we're experts in this field and know precisely what it is they are missing and exactly how difficult it is to overcome those things, it isn't a bet at all to say Russia cannot easily deal with it. At most some trouble and this is assuming the worst for them and given only small resources and time to overcome their technical problems. I doubt very much their energy business totally stops because their own refinement technologies are today very dependent.

it's not a refinery tech issue, it's related to exploration and production. Exploration and production encompasses all upstream/midstream activities from finding oil/gas to extracting and transporting to refineries. In Soviet times, the Russians already exploited easy to recover oil and gas. Current average recovery rates with the use of western technology is at 20%, without access to western know-how it will likely decline to unsustainable levels.

Can the Russians develop the technology in-house? sure, given time and significant investment and skilled personnel. But all three are in short supply in Russia.

 

[serenity]

it's not a refinery tech issue, it's related to exploration and production. Exploration and production encompasses all upstream/midstream activities from finding oil/gas to extracting and transporting to refineries. In Soviet times, the Russians already exploited easy to recover oil and gas. Current average recovery rates with the use of western technology is at 20%, without access to western know-how it will likely decline to unsustainable levels.

Can the Russians develop the technology in-house? sure, given time and significant investment and skilled personnel. But all three are in short supply in Russia.

Ah okay yeah depends how much effort they put in and the need. Perhaps catch up to western levels within years given right resources to the task or perhaps not. Either way I still don't think it would be reduced to zero energy exports. But even unsustainable levels reducing the industrial activity to effectively zero produces economic consequences that may create the necessary mechanism to overcome this that the Russia we assume may not have at the moment. As the value of the oil that would be produced potentially create the market incentive for others to assist or simply provide it and turn back on this policy. We have to see European and even American resolve on the political front.

 

[Trango Towers]

You lot forgot the Russian central bank increased its key rates to 20% and invested massively to prevent the collapse of the ruble but as a consequence of destroying the economic growth... Forecasts predict a 10% recession for Russia in 2022.... meanwhile sanctions will take effect on the Russian economy and soon with gas and oil embargo it's going to get funny.

They predicted the ruble will collapse... and you will buy any thing

 

[dbc]

Ah okay yeah depends how much effort they put in and the need. Perhaps catch up to western levels within years given right resources to the task or perhaps not. Either way I still don't think it would be reduced to zero energy exports. But even unsustainable levels reducing the industrial activity to effectively zero produces economic consequences that may create the necessary mechanism to overcome this that the Russia we assume may not have at the moment. As the value of the oil that would be produced potentially create the market incentive for others to assist or simply provide it and turn back on this policy. We have to see European and even American resolve on the political front.

for some perspective, when the US announced a ban on shale and deep sea technology in 2014, the russians revised their 2023 projections from 10 million barrels per day to 7 million per day.

I don't see any way out for Russia, Putin will be sacrificed for a full reset with the west.

 

[Ich]

for some perspective, when the US announced a ban on shale and deep sea technology in 2014, the russians revised their 2023 projections from 10 million barrels per day to 7 million per day.

I don't see any way out for Russia, Putin will be sacrificed for a full reset with the west.

I wouldnt buy deep sea drilling technology from the US. To much accidents happend there. I would, if really needed, prefer Brazil.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522213016816603138

 

[Wood]

 

[thetutle]

Not even WW2 disintegrated Russia, what makes you think a little Ukraine can disintegrate Russia? Also, Russia never disintegrated. It was USSR that did. Russia maintained its territorial integrity when USSR disintegrated. Keep in mind British empire and French empire both disintegrated.

Take a look at russia 1914 and today. Learn something

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522205157907435522

M777s in action!

 

[dbc]

I wouldnt buy deep sea drilling technology from the US. To much accidents happend there. I would, if really needed, prefer Brazil.

really name one Brazilian deep water directional drilling company with in-house RSS and MWD/LWD tools.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522205157907435522

M777s in action!

There’s still some uncertainty whether this is an M777. Either way, M777s are confirmed to be in action by DefSec Austin.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522224379798736899

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522169593468436480

 

[RoadAmerica]

That's a double edged decision .. like being between a rock and a hard nuked place..

Now Russia is going to nuke everyone?
Come on man!