Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Oldman1]

I am not his advisor. Safe me from that bullet.

But I am just an analyst and military strategist and I do believe that he will absolutely invade Finland and I am confident off this 100%..

Besides NATO won't intervene here either nor will Sweden. This will be a quick incursion this is a country with half the population of Hong Kong just 5-million and they are very LGBT esque society and this is not Finland of old.. Once they see the tanks rolling in with these boozed out Russians, Chechens, Belarussians, Tatars and what not it will be over before it even starts

Yeah sure whatever you say.

 

[CrazyZ]

I little early but are the key defensive weapons/strategies used by the Ukrainians in this war. Indian army will use downgraded versions of the systems Russia is using...... best for Pakistani to start taking notes.

• Lots of modern ATGM's and rockets
• Mines, IED's, ambush's (especially against resupply columns)
• Drones
• Lots of dug in forces
• Surveillance and reconnaissance assistance from USA/NATO (would be China in Pakistan's case)
• Foreign Recruits and mobilizing of civilians
• Resilient AD systems using manpads and networked surveillance for SAMs (some of this networked aerial surveillance is coming NATO)

Any other thoughts?

 

[gambit]

I think the U.S. will stay in NATO but will contribute less,...

The original NATO deal, bluntly speaking, was: We will finance your war (against the Soviets) provided that you are the first to fight.

But over time, especially when I went thru the Raygun yrs military buildup, the US became a frontline component, if not first responder in some situations, like when I was on the F-111 with our nuclear armed Victor Alert jets. And that status never changed until the Trump Administration questioned it.

Now, speculate that a Repugnicant returned to the presidency. Would the US change our mind given that so many have charged that the Trump Administration, and to the Repugnicant Party via guilt by association, contributed to the environment that enabled the Russia-Ukraine war? If yes, not likely that US contribution to NATO will decrease.

 

[The SC]

The audience interrupted Putin's speech with applause and chanted:

"Russia! Russia!"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504816340779024388

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

Please, a bulk of the Indian middle class income is linked to off shored support for US and EU businesses. Imagine a 150 million unemployed Indians. That threat from Mr Goswami is still born.

Late last year I was at a forum with CEO's,CTO's and CIO's from some of largest firms on the planet. All of them raised post COVID concerns about dependence on Indian IT - when many Indians were unable to work due to the COVID pandemic raging in India. Many firms are exploring options in Asia, South America and Eastern Europe.

It isn't an easy problem to solve, we are in this position today because we took economies of scale beyond its logical conclusion and ended up with single points of failure. We are diversifying it will take time, I suspect a decade.

You probably do not know but Mr- Goswami's Republic and WION are mouth pieces of PM Modi and very pro-West channels. He makes such wild statements just to trigger people and to corner India.

 

[WotTen]

NATO is a "has been" organisation that lost its value since the fall of Soviet Union,

Actually NATO has served the precise purpose for which the US kept it alive post-USSR, which was to torpedo any burgeoning Europe-Russia relationship. The Europeans and the Russians really had no serious quarrel with each other before this war. The EU has never been a threat to Russia, and Russia was happy to have a rich Europe as a customer for its resources.

This whole conflict was engineered by the US through NATO expansion which the US knew would push Putin's buttons. What's surprising is that a smart politician like Merkel allowed herself to be played by the US. Germany should have vetoed all eastward expansion of NATO post USSR.

So now we have Europe and Russia at each other's throats. Europe will have to switch from Russian gas to more expensive alternatives, reducing European competitiveness against American alternatives. Europeans will have to spend money on defence instead of their economy. They have all but given up any pretence of an independent foreign policy, quietly submitting to US leadership. China's relationship with Europe has now been complicated tremendously.

All in all, this war has gone swimmingly well for the US.

 

[Oldman1]

The original NATO deal, bluntly speaking, was: We will finance your war (against the Soviets) provided that you are the first to fight.

But over time, especially when I went thru the Raygun yrs military buildup, the US became a frontline component, if not first responder in some situations, like when I was on the F-111 with our nuclear armed Victor Alert jets. And that status never changed until the Trump Administration questioned it.

Now, speculate that a Repugnicant returned to the presidency. Would the US change our mind given that so many have charged that the Trump Administration, and to the Repugnicant Party via guilt by association, contributed to the environment that enabled the Russia-Ukraine war? If yes, not likely that US contribution to NATO will decrease.

Before the invasion of Ukraine and all the tensions, yes the U.S. under Trump would have been possible, but as you said right now thats no happening soon with more troops and other types of involvement for many years to come.

 

[The SC]

Chechen forces in Mariupol..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504838768381022211

 

[dbc]

Any other thoughts?

Tea, lots of tea

 

[Battlion25]

Yeah sure whatever you say.

I am one of the few people who predicted this war was happening months before it did and others were just laughing it off. I am telling you now.. Finland will either become Russian puppet by offering them Russian bases or get invaded cause I don't see any other alternative.

Putin is a Russian security first ''type of fanatic'' guy and his not the type of guy to do half-measures or leave pages unturned

Give it some years and you will see when he starts to ease up on Finland slowly

 

[thetutle]

Have you ever been to,russia? I had a competition in Irkutsk in 2019. The country is degenerated to the core. No infrastructure, poverty galore and very uneducated uncultivated village folks. I hated evry day there. They are completly incompatible with Europe.

I would feel pathetic if we would fall so deep to ever need their help.

As you now, I hope their fail much more than you. But Ive been to russia and its actually a really nice place. Well developed and quite advanced beyond my wildest imagination. It did not meet the Cold War anti USSR narrative. I put it down to pillaging Eastern Europe and other enslaved nations for 80 years.

 

[jhungary]

I kinda disagree here because there were many small sequences of events that lead to this.

Besides NATO had 53.000 troops along the russian border lines from Norway, Poland, Baltics and Ukraine itself. There was 10k in Ukraine itself that were pulled 3 days before the invasion. All in all that is significiant numbers during peace-times.

But that is not where it started many small sequences mounted on top of each other in quick successions.

1. A Massive scale NATO military drill that simulated warfare along the entire eastern flank (This really spoked them)
2. Ukraine entering into co-production ventures with everybody that had a project coming up
3. Lukashenko dispatching fighter jets to intercept an airplane in order to catch one Belarussian activist this event escalated things quite sharp and the West came down aggressively against Lukashenko and his always been paranoid this lead to them sanctioning him and unrecognizing him as the leader of Belarus. This really spoked him and forced him to flee to Moscow
4. In order to remove the sanctions and get back his recognition he started a trick by pressing them with refugees in order for them to recognize him and also pay him and it was an Erdogan trick he was trying pull off but this lead to him receiving direct military threats from Poland who threatened military response and this once again forced him to flee towards Moscow but this time he was offered to be part of the Russian federation to ease his panic and he saw all the militarisation alongside his borders plus the threats.

5. All this sequences and Lukashenko cases mounted on Putin who came out and said if our redlines are crossed we will act during a visit to Crimea and he felt pressured

6. On the other side Ukraine was arming itself but all their projects didn't conclude I mean these co-ventures but by 2025 until 2030 Ukraine would have been a force to be reckoned with but Putin didn't want things to even reach that far as he pulled the trigger before it reached that far

7. Ukraine was increasingly aggressive and so was NATO with alot of exercises on his borders and they even conducted a nuke warfare scenario military drill in eastern europe

8. He moved his troops close by and started negotiations hoping they will back off but it backfired these negotiations but he geninuely wanted them out of Eastern Europe entirely but they refused to exit Eastern Europe. They were not willing to concede a centimeter which is understandable.

9. He couldn't back-off after these negotiations bombed on him but he had to react which is why he invaded Ukraine in order to unsettle their plans because he was being encircled and he was right they were encircling him because their whole EU defense doctrine is based on shouting Russia out of these areas hence the encirclement is necessary part of their defense protocol

10. Once Ukraine is over which I believe it will be around 9-12 months from now. He will likely wait 1 or 2 years before threatening Finland and he will carry out the incursion and it won't be as nearly difficult as this one and he will then again wait few months this time and threaten Sweden and then re-enter negotiations with them asking for sanctions to be lifted which they will likely do in order to safe Sweden because it would be stragetically a nightmare to lose Sweden for them but With Finland he will not offer grounds for negotiations except if they grand him bases inside Finland otherwise it would be a few weeks of incursions it is just a 5 million population and has half the population of Hong Kong..

First of all, no offence, but most of your point is either BS or conspiracy. You effectively put the frame on what Ukraine and what Zelenskyy does while discounting Russian and Belarus own cause and effect.

Particularly the point of Ukraine being a "Logical" threat for Russia between 2025-2030 timeframe is quite ridiculous. Almost all military analysis agree Ukraine would have to reach at least a trillion dollar level economy with heavy fortified industry base before it can present any sort of a threat toward Russia. The industry base is not there, and still have not relocated from East. There are no plan for domestically made Fighter Jet or Ship at least until 2035 and which is why the state of UAF and Ukrainian Navy is in such a depilated state.

The only way Ukraine can see an drastic increase in defence is either go with Russia or West camp, and seeing how Europe and US unwilling to supply any sort of meaningful offensive weapon, again, all weapon trade between US/EU and Ukraine were defensive, they are almost all Anit-Air and Anti-Armor weaponry, Ukraine is not going to be any creditable threat as Russia made out to be in 2030. They will now with full US and EU backing.

On the other hand, Russia seriously miscalculated and played their hand. As I pointed out before, US and UK jointed Intelligence Service had long intercepted Russian plan to invade Ukraine. To a point that BBC release a purposed map for Invasion which aligned to much of what we actually see happening. Which suggest this invasion is though out long before (at least 2 years +) because you don't just make plan on the go, there is a period of planning and wargaming to redefined the plan. If I have to guess, it's was either already there after 2014, or it was made after Trump got shown the door in 2020, if I have to lean, I would have pick the former because if it was the latter, Putin would probably wait until 2024 to invade, because he know if Trump win, that is a sure thing. And with him invading, Trump is not going to win another election as you can probably already see how their own Republican turn on him for supporting Putin. So if I have to guess, I would have said the plan was made after 2014 annexation of Crimea. Putin is just waiting on a good time to go.

As for whether or not Russia will win. That really depend on the next 3 days, because, they have lost a big chunk of their force already by putting their troop into position. And the tough thing has not even started, If you lost approximately 10% of your combat strength getting there and what you are looking forward is a Urban Street to Street Style combat. Your perspective is not going to be good.

Mind you, US intelligence report suggested most of the Russian unit are combat ineffective as of now (The definition is if a unit have more than 20% casualty, it's combat ineffective) , either too much wounded and too many supply trouble to continue, that is the majority of reason why there virtually no progress since Day 14, which is 10 days ago, that is why they resort to bombing civilian, because there are not enough ready troop to go in and engage. Which mean unless some renewal logistical and supply solution comes with a new batch of troop, I can see the frontline will hardly move for the next 6 months as Spring come in and muddy the ground, which amplified further logistic problem.

Not saying Russia cannot pull it off, but I am saying it will take a lot longer to untangle this mess and continue the advance. You need to know Russia has still to fight Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro and being hindered at Kharkiv or even Mariupol. both of which have less population and smaller than the 3 city they have not touch, which mean it would be months, for Russian to clear all those city, and that is if they can clear them out. And then on top of that, you are only talking about Eastern Part of Ukraine. Russia have not even start moving troop West. And you will also need to conquer town like Lviv and Lutsk in order to prevent an insurgency.

By then Finland would be in NATO, and that is assume Russia still have enough strength to go over there. You need to know, you only need 2 meeting to join NATO, that's like 2 or 3 months top. And Finland already met the pre-requisite. And chances of Russia going to finish this war in 2 to 3 months time is probably next to zero, unless they opt out with a peace agreement.

 

[Oldman1]

I little early but are the key defensive weapons/strategies used by the Ukrainians in this war. Indian army will use downgraded versions of the systems Russia is using...... best for Pakistani to start taking notes.

• Lots of modern ATGM's and rockets
• Mines, IED's, ambush's (especially against resupply columns)
• Drones
• Lots of dug in forces
• Surveillance and reconnaissance assistance from USA/NATO (would be China in Pakistan's case)
• Foreign Recruits and mobilizing of civilians
• Resilient AD systems using manpads and networked surveillance for SAMs (some of this networked aerial surveillance is coming NATO)

Any other thoughts?

Artillery and MLRS along with loitering munitions as well as snipers.

 

[oberschlesier]

I kinda disagree here because there were many small sequences of events that lead to this.

Besides NATO had 53.000 troops along the russian border lines from Norway, Poland, Baltics and Ukraine itself. There was 10k in Ukraine itself that were pulled 3 days before the invasion. All in all that is significiant numbers during peace-times.

But that is not where it started many small sequences mounted on top of each other in quick successions.

1. A Massive scale NATO military drill that simulated warfare along the entire eastern flank (This really spoked them)
2. Ukraine entering into co-production ventures with everybody that had a project coming up
3. Lukashenko dispatching fighter jets to intercept an airplane in order to catch one Belarussian activist this event escalated things quite sharp and the West came down aggressively against Lukashenko and his always been paranoid this lead to them sanctioning him and unrecognizing him as the leader of Belarus. This really spoked him and forced him to flee to Moscow
4. In order to remove the sanctions and get back his recognition he started a trick by pressing them with refugees in order for them to recognize him and also pay him and it was an Erdogan trick he was trying pull off but this lead to him receiving direct military threats from Poland who threatened military response and this once again forced him to flee towards Moscow but this time he was offered to be part of the Russian federation to ease his panic and he saw all the militarisation alongside his borders plus the threats.

5. All this sequences and Lukashenko cases mounted on Putin who came out and said if our redlines are crossed we will act during a visit to Crimea and he felt pressured

6. On the other side Ukraine was arming itself but all their projects didn't conclude I mean these co-ventures but by 2025 until 2030 Ukraine would have been a force to be reckoned with but Putin didn't want things to even reach that far as he pulled the trigger before it reached that far

7. Ukraine was increasingly aggressive and so was NATO with alot of exercises on his borders and they even conducted a nuke warfare scenario military drill in eastern europe

8. He moved his troops close by and started negotiations hoping they will back off but it backfired these negotiations but he geninuely wanted them out of Eastern Europe entirely but they refused to exit Eastern Europe. They were not willing to concede a centimeter which is understandable.

9. He couldn't back-off after these negotiations bombed on him but he had to react which is why he invaded Ukraine in order to unsettle their plans because he was being encircled and he was right they were encircling him because their whole EU defense doctrine is based on shouting Russia out of these areas hence the encirclement is necessary part of their defense protocol

10. Once Ukraine is over which I believe it will be around 9-12 months from now. He will likely wait 1 or 2 years before threatening Finland and he will carry out the incursion and it won't be as nearly difficult as this one and he will then again wait few months this time and threaten Sweden and then re-enter negotiations with them asking for sanctions to be lifted which they will likely do in order to safe Sweden because it would be stragetically a nightmare to lose Sweden for them but With Finland he will not offer grounds for negotiations except if they grand him bases inside Finland otherwise it would be a few weeks of incursions it is just a 5 million population and has half the population of Hong Kong..

NATO should support Ukraine even more and build more forces on the eastern flank to threaten Russia even more. How Russia will react ?

 

[Oldman1]

I am one of the few people who predicted this war was happening months before it did and others were just laughing it off. I am telling you now.. Finland will either become Russian puppet by offering them Russian bases or get invaded cause I don't see any other alternative.

Putin is a Russian security first ''type of fanatic'' guy and his not the type of guy to do half-measures or leave pages unturned

Give it some years and you will see when he starts to ease up on Finland slowly

Yes, I also already know that the invasion could happen, I also pointed out that the Ukrainians will fight hard, and also that the Russians will have logistics problem on the day of the invasion which I argued on.