Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[oberschlesier]

I have no ties to Ukraine other than knowing that Ukraine used to be a Soviet state and that there are a lot of hot Ukrainian chicks, excuse the typical guy in me. But I am a refugee from communism so for now, I have sympathies for Ukrainian refugees in your Poland and admiration to the ordinary Poles who definitely went above and beyond the call of humaneness to help the Ukrainians.

But as much as I can say positive things to your Poland, the Cold Warrior in me must turn my head towards realpolitiks and that means I believe that as long as Poutine is in power and that China is Russia's ally, your Poland WILL be next. Whether Poland is immediately next or next after a previous victim is unknown, twice your Poland was conquered, Germany and the Soviet Union, so what are the odds under Russia? Americans have a saying "Two out of three aint' bad" to mean something is still worth it, but for Poland "Two out of three" is not odds I want to risk. Good luck to Poland, and I mean it.

Everybody here is completely aware, that we could be next and everybody is preparing for this. As long our back in the west is hold we will manage it. Generally we have "a bit of experience" of handling the thread from the east, otherwise we would not be a successful central european nation with a more of 1000 years of history. The problem was always, when the agression came from both sides. Generally from a historic point of view( Mr. P likes those comparisions ) the situation does not look so bad, What Russia is doing right now, is defending their western border drawn in 17th Centrury(!). They are historicaly figthing to hold the Pereiaslav Agreement ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pereiaslav_Agreement ). If Ukraine won`t loose, the EU consolidates and Germany emerges as a dominant friendly military European power, willing to defend the whole EU, you guys can really pivot to Asia then.

 

[gambit]

...NATO is all but abandon by Trump,...

My distaste for The Orange One is well known here, but it is on personal issues, not policies. Many yrs ago, that after observing the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union on CONEUR, I talked with some friends about either the US withdraw from NATO or even disbandment of NATO. It was a squadron beers and pizzas party for passing ORI. Disbandment was immediately dismissed, but surprisingly, there were a lot of agreement, from officers and enlisted, that AT LEAST a discussion should be allowed on US withdrawal from NATO, and that since economic might create military might, the Euros can sustain NATO on their own. So when Grump bullied NATO, I was all for it. Either step up for your own defense, or quit altogether and defend yourselves individually.

So did NATO rejected Ukraine because they feared that they may have to support Ukraine with less financial resources?

 

[Amliunion]

No not you. Sorry that I didn't make it clear..
Those are two other members.

Once I realized you have shared all the images in that Swedish link. I deleted my post.

I saw that you've deleted your Post! Peace, Mate!

 

[Oldman1]

My distaste for The Orange One is well known here, but it is on personal issues, not policies. Many yrs ago, that after observing the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union on CONEUR, I talked with some friends about either the US withdraw from NATO or even disbandment of NATO. It was a squadron beers and pizzas party for passing ORI. Disbandment was immediately dismissed, but surprisingly, there were a lot of agreement, from officers and enlisted, that AT LEAST a discussion should be allowed on US withdrawal from NATO, and that since economic might create military might, the Euros can sustain NATO on their own. So when Grump bullied NATO, I was all for it. Either step up for your own defense, or quit altogether and defend yourselves individually.

So did NATO rejected Ukraine because they feared that they may have to support Ukraine with less financial resources?

EU even thought of having their own military organization from NATO. Don't know how that panned out.

 

[gambit]

EU even thought of having their own military organization from NATO. Don't know how that panned out.

There is a mutual defense clause in the EU charter, but members can opt out of that clause if anyone wanted. So now, what if the US withdraw from NATO or NATO disbanded? Would that clause be mandatory for membership? Same mission, different club.

 

[thetutle]

Russia's biggest cargo airline "Volga-Dnepr" stops using Boeing planes. 18 => 747 and 6 => 737 will not be used anymore.

Is this the result of embargo? Or is it due to political reasons?

Political reasons? lol no.

Its a massive fine and a prison term in an American jail for anyone that: services the aircraft, provides it spare parts, refuels it.

Yeah, you can use those planes in Russia and thats about it. Maybe Belarus.

 

[jhungary]

My distaste for The Orange One is well known here, but it is on personal issues, not policies. Many yrs ago, that after observing the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union on CONEUR, I talked with some friends about either the US withdraw from NATO or even disbandment of NATO. It was a squadron beers and pizzas party for passing ORI. Disbandment was immediately dismissed, but surprisingly, there were a lot of agreement, from officers and enlisted, that AT LEAST a discussion should be allowed on US withdrawal from NATO, and that since economic might create military might, the Euros can sustain NATO on their own. So when Grump bullied NATO, I was all for it. Either step up for your own defense, or quit altogether and defend yourselves individually.

So did NATO rejected Ukraine because they feared that they may have to support Ukraine with less financial resources?

NATO is a "has been" organisation that lost its value since the fall of Soviet Union, there are no denying that after we emerge victorious in cold war, there are no need for NATO anymore. Because we expect Russia to lay down and stay down.

Problem is, that does not stop a man with exceptionally high expectation of Soviet Union but extremely delusion about his own Military. Russia is no longer a peer-peer competitor after cold war. regardless what Mr Putin think how strong is Russia. Russia, following the Soviet Doctrine, means the strength of the nation is only as strong as it was perceived. Which is not translating into actual strength. Putin failed to know that, and NATO getting complacent, then accumulated with numerous small geopolitical victories (Chechen, Georgia, Syria and Ukraine) without getting any sort of punishment. Putin put himself in a deadly Calculus, which is thinking of Russia being stronger than it is to be as part of his own perception instead of what Russia actually is and this happen.

You need someone to spank Mr Putin and put him back in place where he belong, but at 4 critical moment before, nobody is doing that, if I get away with invading someone not once but 4 times, I too would think I am bigger than I am actually is. That is as much as NATO fault as Putin.

Before this? My thought of NATO is it had ran its course, we should not be subsidising European Defence. After this? I don't know.

As for why NATO reject Ukraine. I think the former Polish FM Radosław Sikorski frame it very good.

NATO don't want Ukraine to join because NATO don't want to fight for Ukraine.

 

[oberschlesier]

Russia has made grave mistakes, fatalities on their side tells that & Ukrainian been trained by NATO since 2013. They are defending well, no doubt in that.

'Snake Island, The Ghost of Kyiv, Sharing Video Games Footage, Old Videos, Photos, claiming to Sink Russian Ship which turns out to be Fake, Russia taking over Ukraine in 24-48 hours etc., presented as the Gospel Truth.

Eventually, Russia will Win but pay or paying a dear price for it.

I am not a war monger. When I see Plight of Ukrainians, their cities etc., it makes me feel bad.

On other, Zelensky fighting US Proxy War with Russia + West lecturing other on Humanity, Morality etc., piss me off...

Thanks to Information WareFare Putin is Potrayed as Hitler. However, US & EU President/PM who carried out Genocide in Iraq, Libya, Syria etc., bestowed with Nobel Peace Price. That's why I support Russia who been demonized by Monsters & trying to expose thre Hypocrisy!

We live in a Cruel Word.

Where is Russian Info warfare ? Putin with the long table ?
That the heck are they doing? Ukraine is//was the poorest country in Europe and now they better, than the Great Russia ? Many People in Europe still don`t belive this.

 

[Oldman1]

There is a mutual defense clause in the EU charter, but members can opt out of that clause if anyone wanted. So now, what if the US withdraw from NATO or NATO disbanded? Would that clause be mandatory for membership? Same mission, different club.

I think the U.S. will stay in NATO but will contribute less, even withdraw military forces except keeping military equipment and supplies in prepositioned locations or storage unless needed if NATO countries were in danger. Many countries in NATO won't like it, with less personnel in Europe, but I think its a compromise of having to spend so much on it. Its good to have NATO in the long term if ever needed. I mean just look at Ukraine, not a NATO country and its being attacked, Finland and Sweden being threatened, Russia not willing to attack the Baltics or Poland to expand its influence going back to the Cold War days where the map was suppose to look like in Putin's eyes.

 

[Battlion25]

Ukraine almost have no offensive capability, they are using upgraded T-84 tank, old soviet Mig, the entire Ukrainian Navy have 1 major battleship, the west gave them nothing but BS before this war. The best weapon they got is some 200 Javelin Missile Launcher. If you ask any analyst, they will tell you the way Ukraine can wage a war with Russia the way Putin said is next to zero.

In fact, judging from EU and NATO response, they think the war is going to go down, and they think Ukraine will capitulate within the first 3 days. That's why they don't even bother talking about sanctioning Russia until March 1.

There were no US troop in Baltic States, now there are roughly 20000 US and UK troop over there, basically Putin is the reason why his own volition come true, had he not invaded Ukraine, NATO wouldn't care much about the Baltic.

I kinda disagree here because there were many small sequences of events that lead to this.

Besides NATO had 53.000 troops along the russian border lines from Norway, Poland, Baltics and Ukraine itself. There was 10k in Ukraine itself that were pulled 3 days before the invasion. All in all that is significiant numbers during peace-times.

But that is not where it started many small sequences mounted on top of each other in quick successions.

1. A Massive scale NATO military drill that simulated warfare along the entire eastern flank (This really spoked them)
2. Ukraine entering into co-production ventures with everybody that had a project coming up
3. Lukashenko dispatching fighter jets to intercept an airplane in order to catch one Belarussian activist this event escalated things quite sharp and the West came down aggressively against Lukashenko and his always been paranoid this lead to them sanctioning him and unrecognizing him as the leader of Belarus. This really spoked him and forced him to flee to Moscow
4. In order to remove the sanctions and get back his recognition he started a trick by pressing them with refugees in order for them to recognize him and also pay him and it was an Erdogan trick he was trying pull off but this lead to him receiving direct military threats from Poland who threatened military response and this once again forced him to flee towards Moscow but this time he was offered to be part of the Russian federation to ease his panic and he saw all the militarisation alongside his borders plus the threats.

5. All this sequences and Lukashenko cases mounted on Putin who came out and said if our redlines are crossed we will act during a visit to Crimea and he felt pressured

6. On the other side Ukraine was arming itself but all their projects didn't conclude I mean these co-ventures but by 2025 until 2030 Ukraine would have been a force to be reckoned with but Putin didn't want things to even reach that far as he pulled the trigger before it reached that far

7. Ukraine was increasingly aggressive and so was NATO with alot of exercises on his borders and they even conducted a nuke warfare scenario military drill in eastern europe

8. He moved his troops close by and started negotiations hoping they will back off but it backfired these negotiations but he geninuely wanted them out of Eastern Europe entirely but they refused to exit Eastern Europe. They were not willing to concede a centimeter which is understandable.

9. He couldn't back-off after these negotiations bombed on him but he had to react which is why he invaded Ukraine in order to unsettle their plans because he was being encircled and he was right they were encircling him because their whole EU defense doctrine is based on shouting Russia out of these areas hence the encirclement is necessary part of their defense protocol

10. Once Ukraine is over which I believe it will be around 9-12 months from now. He will likely wait 1 or 2 years before threatening Finland and he will carry out the incursion and it won't be as nearly difficult as this one and he will then again wait few months this time and threaten Sweden and then re-enter negotiations with them asking for sanctions to be lifted which they will likely do in order to safe Sweden because it would be stragetically a nightmare to lose Sweden for them but With Finland he will not offer grounds for negotiations except if they grand him bases inside Finland otherwise it would be a few weeks of incursions it is just a 5 million population and has half the population of Hong Kong..

 

[MH.Yang]

I will agree that Biden is saved by Putin. The Covid policies failures and the inflation etc have taken a backseat in America now. And never forget... the first job of a politician is to gain power. The second is to hold on to power.
It is a universal principle.

Biden saved by Putin? No, trump is sure to win. Biden is sure to lose.

Yiwu, China has started manufacturing supplies for 2024. Trump's goods orders far exceed Biden's, which shows that trump has more chaebol support. Every time China Yiwu passes the goods order, it is expected that the result of the US election has never been missed, and so is this time.

 

[gambit]

NATO is a "has been" organisation that lost its value since the fall of Soviet Union, there are no denying that after we emerge victorious in cold war, there are no need for NATO anymore. Because we expect Russia to lay down and stay down.

Before this? My thought of NATO is it had ran its course, we should not be subsidising European Defence. After this? I don't know.

Same here, that I do not know. But do you think the resurrection/rearmament of NATO rests on the level of destruction on Ukraine? This is cynicism talking.

 

[Oldman1]

10. Once Ukraine is over which I believe it will be around 9-12 months from now. He will likely wait 1 or 2 years before threatening Finland and he will carry out the incursion and it won't be as nearly difficult as this one and he will then again wait few months this time and threaten Sweden and then re-enter negotiations with them asking for sanctions to be lifted which they will likely do in order to safe Sweden because it would be stragetically a nightmare to lose Sweden for them but With Finland he will not offer grounds for negotiations except if they grand him bases inside Finland otherwise it would be a few weeks of incursions it is just a 5 million population and has half the population of Hong Kong..

After Ukraine, Russia won't do such a thing, its truly nuts! Attacking Finland in hopes of deterring them from joining NATO??? And you think it won't be as hard as the one in Ukraine???Thats actually going to push them to NATO. I'm starting to think if that ever happened, NATO will get involved and kick the Russian forces out even if Finland isn't NATO. Not to mention I believe Finland has an alliance with Sweden as well. If you were one of Putin's closest adviser, you be shot dead thinking of that.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

The bias did not escaped my notice. Every PDF Chinese will support Russia uncritically and will exert great mental gymnastics to portray Russia in a positive light. But I am surprised and disappointed at India.

Why are you disappointed with India?

 

[Battlion25]

After Ukraine, Russia won't do such a thing, its truly nuts! Attacking Finland in hopes of deterring them from joining NATO??? And you think it won't be as hard as the one in Ukraine???Thats actually going to push them to NATO. I'm starting to think if that ever happened, NATO will get involved and kick the Russian forces out even if Finland isn't NATO. Not to mention I believe Finland has an alliance with Sweden as well. If you were one of Putin's closest adviser, you be shot dead thinking of that.

I am not his advisor. Safe me from that bullet.

But I am just an analyst and military strategist and I do believe that he will absolutely invade Finland and I am confident of this 100%.. You may ask why? Because his confident of a future NATO war hence he will not allow his largest land border to join NATO or even become western aligned. He can't afford that and knowing him well he won't blink.

Besides NATO won't intervene here either nor will Sweden. This will be a quick incursion this is a country with half the population of Hong Kong just 5-million and they are very LGBT esque society and this is not Finland of old.. Once they see the tanks rolling in with these boozed out Russians, Chechens, Belarussians, Tatars and what not it will be over before it even starts