Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Battlion25]

First of all, no offence, but most of your point is either BS or conspiracy. You effectively put the frame on what Ukraine and what Zelenskyy does while discounting Russian and Belarus own cause and effect.

Particularly the point of Ukraine being a "Logical" threat for Russia between 2025-2030 timeframe is quite ridiculous. Almost all military analysis agree Ukraine would have to reach at least a trillion dollar level economy with heavy fortified industry base before it can present any sort of a threat toward Russia. The industry base is not there, and still have not relocated from East. There are no plan for domestically made Fighter Jet or Ship at least until 2035 and which is why the state of UAF and Ukrainian Navy is in such a depilated state.

The only way Ukraine can see an drastic increase in defence is either go with Russia or West camp, and seeing how Europe and US unwilling to supply any sort of meaningful offensive weapon, again, all weapon trade between US/EU and Ukraine were defensive, they are almost all Anit-Air and Anti-Armor weaponry, Ukraine is not going to be any creditable threat as Russia made out to be in 2030. They will now with full US and EU backing.

On the other hand, Russia seriously miscalculated and played their hand. As I pointed out before, US and UK jointed Intelligence Service had long intercepted Russian plan to invade Ukraine. To a point that BBC release a purposed map for Invasion which aligned to much of what we actually see happening. Which suggest this invasion is though out long before (at least 2 years +) because you don't just make plan on the go, there is a period of planning and wargaming to redefined the plan. If I have to guess, it's was either already there after 2014, or it was made after Trump got shown the door in 2020, if I have to lean, I would have pick the former because if it was the latter, Putin would probably wait until 2024 to invade, because he know if Trump win, that is a sure thing. And with him invading, Trump is not going to win another election as you can probably already see how their own Republican turn on him for supporting Putin. So if I have to guess, I would have said the plan was made after 2014 annexation of Crimea. Putin is just waiting on a good time to go.

As for whether or not Russia will win. That really depend on the next 3 days, because, they have lost a big chunk of their force already by putting their troop into position. And the tough thing has not even started, If you lost approximately 10% of your combat strength getting there and what you are looking forward is a Urban Street to Street Style combat. Your perspective is not going to be good.

Mind you, US intelligence report suggested most of the Russian unit are combat ineffective as of now (The definition is if a unit have more than 20% casualty, it's combat ineffective) , either too much wounded and too many supply trouble to continue, that is the majority of reason why there virtually no progress since Day 14, which is 10 days ago, that is why they resort to bombing civilian, because there are not enough ready troop to go in and engage. Which mean unless some renewal logistical and supply solution comes with a new batch of troop, I can see the frontline will hardly move for the next 6 months as Spring come in and muddy the ground, which amplified further logistic problem.

Not saying Russia cannot pull it off, but I am saying it will take a lot longer to untangle this mess and continue the advance. You need to know Russia has still to fight Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro and being hindered at Kharkiv or even Mariupol. both of which have less population and smaller than the 3 city they have not touch, which mean it would be months, for Russian to clear all those city, and that is if they can clear them out. And then on top of that, you are only talking about Eastern Part of Ukraine. Russia have no even move troop West. And you will also need to conquer town like Lviv and Lutsk in order to prevent an insurgency.

By then Finland would be in NATO by then, and that is assume Russia still have enough strength to go over there.

I stopped reading at the part where Ukraine has to be economically strong in order to become a threat? Are you even being serious bro..

Look at Brazil it has huge economy but not even nearly or half as armed as countries far smaller like Morocco, Poland or Algeria etc etc.. Economy is no indictor for armament.. It comes down to ambitions as some countries are more militarily ambitious then others

 

[dbc]

You probably do not know but Mr- Goswami's Republic and WION are mouth pieces of PM Modi and very pro-West channels. He makes such wild statements just to trigger people and to corner India.

I don't know who he is... regardless, if India mortgages it's future in support of Putin's misadventures then it's going to have massive cost. No one begrudges India cheap oil at the expense of Russia. But being seen in the same photo frame as Putin post Ukraine is going be political suicide.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

I don't know who he is... regardless, if India mortgages it's future in support of Putin's misadventures then it's going to have massive cost. No one begrudges India cheap oil at the expense of Russia. But being seen in the same photo frame as Putin post Ukraine is going be political suicide.

That will never happen. Modi is a complete lackey of the West and he has complete control over India. He will just play to gallery and pay lip service. That's about it.

 

[The SC]

Playing with the enemy sniper on the battlefield

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504992884101165058

 

[oberschlesier]

I kinda disagree here because there were many small sequences of events that lead to this.

8. He moved his troops close by and started negotiations hoping they will back off but it backfired these negotiations but he geninuely wanted them out of Eastern Europe entirely but they refused to exit Eastern Europe. They were not willing to concede a centimeter which is understandable.

Why the countires of Central Eastern Europe would agree to this? The economical potential of NATO easteren flank countries is comparable to Russia. It seems now the military potentials is as similar as well.

 

[CrazyZ]

Artillery and MLRS along with loitering munitions as well as snipers.

Artillery, machine guns, and snipers are classic defensive tools...... how could I forget those. Based on vids......Ukrainians are definitely using drones to spot for artillery. Any info on the types of artillery munitions the Ukrainians are using? Cargo shells/rockets? Guided shells/rockets?

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504997904209096705

 

[thetutle]

More likely, if America loses India then America would be essentially out of the Eurasian continent. India is the last and only real bulwark for American desires in that most crucial region of the world. Related to that... just a few days ago a prominent Indian tv anchor Arnab Goswami boasted on his show saying something like 'we run your information technology' talking to Americans. It was a veiled threat.
Keep outsourcing jobs and manufacturing... Yup, keep doing that on behalf of some hundred corporations and their paid for media and politicians.

America hopefully wont lose India, it plans to fight china tot he last Indian in the future.

Failing that America will open bases in Bangladesh and develop it. Its a democracy, the people the nice. It will make Bangladesh the unsinkable aircraft carrier in Asia - South east Asia.

 

[jhungary]

Same here, that I do not know. But do you think the resurrection/rearmament of NATO rests on the level of destruction on Ukraine? This is cynicism talking.

Well, I talked to a friend of mine, Mischa, who is an Ukrainian, before the war (Yes, I have friends too )
I told him, you know NATO is going to hung you out to dry and leave you there so that they can show to the Finns and Swede that nothing good ever going to happen next to Russia if you are not NATO. He laugh it off, now he move back to Kyiv and defend the nation.

It's not hard to know or even realise that NATO aim for Ukraine is to use it as a cautionary tale aiming at Sweden and Finland. The organisation is falling and the only way to band it together, like any failing organisation is to look for new blood. And Sweden and Finland is not going to buy the Chinese Threat the US is selling. Which mean they would have to draw them in with Russia, and who else is there to better show them the Russian threat if not Ukraine?

The thing is, one thing led to another, what this war entail is also a sort of unification of NATO, which now put Ukraine being the center of the reason why NATO is united. Which mean the thought of losing Ukraine is probably unsustainable now than before the war started.

So here is what I think, the rejuvenation of NATO depends on how long Ukraine can hold on. NATO wanted Ukraine to hold on as long as possible and as much as possible. But if that fail, they can always dangle the picture of destroyed Maidan Square and use them as a constant reminder to put NATO member on the heels. Not sure if that make any sense to you...

 

[Wood]

The abducted Ukrainian mayor has been released in prisoner exchange

 

[oberschlesier]

Well, I talked to a friend of mine, Mischa, who is an Ukrainian, before the war (Yes, I have friends too )
I told him, you know NATO is going to hung you out to dry and leave you there so that they can show to the Finns and Swede that nothing good ever going to happen next to Russia if you are not NATO. He laugh it off, now he move back to Kyiv and defend the nation.

It's not hard to know or even realise that NATO aim for Ukraine is to use it as a cautionary tale aiming at Sweden and Finland. The organisation is falling and the only way to band it together, like any failing organisation is to look for new blood. And Sweden and Finland is not going to buy the Chinese Threat the US is selling. Which mean they would have to draw them in with Russia, and who else is there to better show them the Russian threat if not Ukraine?

The thing is, one thing led to another, what this war entail is also a sort of unification of NATO, which now put Ukraine being the center of the reason why NATO is united. Which mean the thought of losing Ukraine is probably unsustainable now than before the war started.

So here is what I think, the rejuvenation of NATO depends on how long Ukraine can hold on. NATO wanted Ukraine to hold on as long as possible and as much as possible. But if that fail, they can always dangle the picture of destroyed Maidan Square and use them as a constant reminder to put NATO member on the heels. Not sure if that make any sense to you...

Again NATO, NATO, STRATO whatever. The Maidan Square was about the EU. EUROMAIDAN. Not about the NATO, just about simple things, like having toilet in their house. 30% of Russian don`t have it. In PL 99% have it. Ukrainian want to have toilets in their house. Simple like this.

 

[jhungary]

Actually NATO has served the precise purpose for which the US kept it alive post-USSR, which was to torpedo any burgeoning Europe-Russia relationship. The Europeans and the Russians really had no serious quarrel with each other before this war. The EU has never been a threat to Russia, and Russia was happy to have a rich Europe as a customer for its resources.

This whole conflict was engineered by the US through NATO expansion which the US knew would push Putin's buttons. What's surprising is that a smart politician like Merkel allowed herself to be played by the US. Germany should have vetoed all eastward expansion of NATO post USSR.

So now we have Europe and Russia at each other's throats. Europe will have to switch from Russian gas to more expensive alternatives, reducing European competitiveness against American alternatives. Europeans will have to spend money on defence instead of their economy. They have all but given up any pretence of an independent foreign policy, quietly submitting to US leadership. China's relationship with Europe has now been complicated tremendously.

All in all, this war has gone swimmingly well for the US.

Not sure if you aware, nobody talk about Russia in the US.

For a normal American, the only time Russian is on the news in US TV channel is when they dope and that 15 years old girl (which is quite tragic) US don't really care about Russia as much as Russia don't really care about the US.

You can blame US all you want but the War in Ukraine is a European Business. That is an empty promise that was betrayed twice by Ukrainian themselves and one very jealous neighbour. There are constant bickering between Europe and Russia, especially more so after Russia control 40% of EU gas and oil. The threat was "Always" there vis-a-vis from Russia, and it's not American on that receiving end. it's always Smaller European country that was on the receiving end. So what you do when you were threaten by Russia? You join NATO.

Of course, you can spin it and say it is American Master plan that try to have Europe and Russia at each other throat. But fact remain, US has long been abandoned NATO and that is true even to this administration, and the sole reason why NATO is remerging is solely because Russia invaded Ukraine, otherwise I would dare to say NATO will probably be disbanded in the next 3 to 5 years.

 

[Battlion25]

My overview analysis of this is that the Americans are overwhelmed by this geostragetic occurances and partially due to their policies for the last 30 years because they have been cannibalizing their allies over irrelevant matters example even NATO itself is splitted and at it's weakest point where Germany and France are not on the same page and all that is due to the cannibalism that was taking place but Biden Admin took it to a whole new level and it is coming back to haunt them as an axis that is powerful has appeared..

Example just listen to this report and they are surprised by the overwhelming support Russia is getting in China and it seems like they have been living under a rock if anything China may join this war if it spreads to Europe on Russia side making this report naive.

They have been cannibalizing their own NATO allies and MENA allies because they got to comfortable in the passing years that they became to over-confident and now everything is crashing down.

They were spying on Germany for years and keeping their military weak on purpose, undermining the French and trying to contain Turkey and limit them including trying to create irrelevant quagmires for MENA allies.. Also annoying everyone with irrelevant NGO human right activists..

While completely being oblivious to the fact that their empire is coming to an end nor knowing where the chellenge is coming from.

Right now if WW3 breaks out Europe will fall to Russia-China because everyone else will assume neutrality in the old world because they don't trust the US even Israel will assume neutrality and they can't logistically fight toe to toe with Russia and China in the old world due to logistical reasons because they don't have land-corridor to the Eurasian continent. They will be forced to watch Europe fall entirely to Russian-Chinese forces if they want to commit to an all out offensive campaign.

All of West Europe will fall easier then Ukraine after an intense nuclear campaign because they won't attack NATO unless it is via Nuclear warfare..

The threat the US is facing is alot more credible then most assume. Biden Admin is definitely not coming back to power because it has cannibalized allies and the US will focus on re-gaining allies but unsure whether they will succeed as the other side will also be doing charm offense to prevent and on the other hand NATO itself could split as France may leave the alliance.

West Europe alone can't take on an axis of China-Russia

I agree.

The US became to comfortable because post cold-war there were no enemies on the horizone and it slowly started to cannibalize it's allies but not over-doing it but enough to become an annoyance to them..

The 20-trillion USD spend in mountains or in the sub-sharen fighting irrelevant non-state actor ghosts really did them in and drained them which gave rise to an axis or rival that could frankly speaking invade whole of west europe literally tomorrow and the US won't be able to stop it due to logistical reasons.

Is there any sane individual who thinks? If Russian-Chinese combined attack came out of nowhere in West Europe that they could stop it? That is approx 8000-10.000 Nuclear warheads and there chances is an absolute fat zero.. The US will remain tho besieged in North America where the Russian-Chinese will have issues crossing over conventionally but Western Europe will be taken effortlessly

 

[jhungary]

Again NATO, NATO, STRATO whatever. The Maidan Square was about the EU. EUROMAIDAN. Not about the NATO, just about simple things, like having toilet in their house. 30% of Russian don`t have it. In PL 99% have it. Ukrainian want to have toilets in their house. Simple like this.

If you read my post, you will know I never think Maidan and this invasion is because of NATO.

I am commenting on how this war united NATO. Nothing more.

I stopped reading at the part where Ukraine has to be economically strong in order to become a threat? Are you even being serious bro..

Look at Brazil it has huge economy but not even nearly or half as armed as countries far smaller like Morocco, Poland or Algeria etc etc.. Economy is no indictor for armament.. It comes down to ambitions as some countries are more militarily ambitious then others

You are talking about being a THREAT OF RUSSIA, not Algeria or Libya.....

So tell me, how a country with 250 aircraft, mostly ex-soviet MIG, with 1 capital ship in the ENTIRE NAVY become a "Threat" to RUSSIA?

Are you saying Ukraine is going to bomb Crimea with that tiny Frigate? Or Launch an all out air sortie on Russian Airport?

The fact remain, Ukrainian financial situation does not allow a large expansion of Military, that is why they are keeping it at 250,000 troop for the entire country. Ambition is one thing, but you need money to buy weapon, money Ukrainian did not have. So who are going to give them stuff for free before the war?

Dude, read the news please. Before the war, West Weapon shipment is at the expense of 500 millions dollar (310 from US and 200 from the UK) with a few Javelin and NLAW, most of which is after Russian troop build up anyway. After the war, as of today, Weapon Aide went over 3 billions dollars.

The "rearming" of Ukraine only happened AFTER Russian invasion, not before. So tell me, what kind of threat Ukraine has become with old MIGs and 1 Single ship and 1000 odd tanks? It's like asking Mexico to invade the US.

Dude, com'on.

 

[oberschlesier]

If you read my post, you will know I never think Maidan and this invasion is because of NATO.

I am commenting on how this war united NATO. Nothing more.

Sure, sorry if did not fully adressed your post, but it just annoys me, that the people only adress the hard power without taking into account the soft power, which is probably more important in the long run.