Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Invicta]

Some good points in your post.

Russians also needed time to prepare for the war and launched a military operation when they felt that they were ready. Military buildup process is a complex development in itself. Economic considerations also come into play in this matter.

Russian forces are not taking Ukraine lightly in any capacity. For perspective, Russian forces have used over a 1000 cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to strike at high value targets inside Ukraine by now. This is much higher count in comparison to use of these standoff munitions in other theaters such as Chechnya, Georgia and Syria respectively. This is but a tip of the iceberg because much of the action is taking place on the ground. Several Ukranian cities have suffered extensive destruction by now due to periodic episodes of heavy fighting and attempts to soften Ukranian resistance with extensive shelling with artillery pieces and MLRS.

But Russians are suffering losses in exchanges of fire. They have lost a large number of military vehicles and thousands if troops by now. They thought that Ukraine will be a walk in the park for them like Georgia and Syria where they could fight and bomb locations at will. Not here.

Just speaking to my son about all things worldly and somehow the subject changed to school ground bullies.
He used the phrase "its not the shouty ones you want to watch out, its the silent one". Putin has been shouty since the beginning, the reality has unraveled Russian bravado like a school ground bully.

We heard tall tales of Su30's, Su35's we heard the invincibility of the Armata the sheer lethality of the Su57. Where are they?
It seems all planners in Moscow were fighting a war on paper and completely forgot about their own capabilities. The hype men within Putin's circle did a great job in telling him what he wanted to know, he is now learning what he should have been told instead.

How can a superpower fail so miserably to gain air supremacy over the battlefield, that long convoy was a joke - if that had happened in Afghanistan or Iraq the General in question would have been slaughtered in the media.

Even looking at Russian top units the VDV and the Spetnaz - what happened to their near invincible training and effectiveness in battle. It has turned those units into a joke, so much so that now Putin's hype men would have me believe that some Syrian mercenaries are a better more effective solution to winning this war compared to crack units like VDV and Spetnaz.

I think like you I was very much of the opinion that this would be another Georgia and Syria, Ukrainians have surprised me with their resolve, and coupled with military assistance from other countries they have brought the Kremlin war machine to a stand still. Russians were deceived into thinking this will be a walk in the park - evident by their use of conscripts and Chechen fighters. The reality has now dawned on them - this is a very motivated enemy who is dug in deep and protecting their territory. Russian response in using higher number of standoff weapons is a result of their realisation of the current realities.

Putin's speech yesterday showed a bully who for the first time has faced someone who took a stand - the result is utter disbelief in his own people. He was blaming traitors at home - the same traitors who until yesterday were his comrades. The current peace talks are going ahead in a good direction - would you believe that if Russia was winning or even close to securing its objectives.

No one winning a war will take to the Table. This only happens in a stalemate - unfortunately for him this stalemate benefits Ukraine more than it does Russia. For now they should priorities cutting their losses - that is if they have anyone bold enough to tell them the fact as they are. The damage is extensive for Russia and the repercussions will be felt long after this is all over and probably even after Putin goes away.

NATO will now swallow more countries - there is going to be no if's or but's. If the ceasefire is reached and even if Russia gets/cuts most of the territory from Ukraine the remaining country will be extremely hostile to mainland Russia. Europe/UK/USA will be fighting over each other to sell their weapons to Ukrainians. If this conquest was hard for Russia, the next one will be neigh-on-impossible. This is just my understanding and forecast of how things might turn out.

Must say you and other Mods have done a good job on this thread its one place where I can get all sides of the story minus the rare off-topic troll-shouts.

 

[Messerschmitt]

 

[nang2]

How do you take it out of circulation in China? You need them to do domestic trade.......

By not issuing new loans after recovering old ones.

 

[jhungary]

India will walk through this mess like it is on a landmine dispersed with gold nuggets. India's foreign policy is not fully independent because of the different economic and security dependencies that India has on global players. Yesterday, WH press secretary said that India's oil deal with Russia is morally wrong but not against sanctions that have been put on Russia thus far. In the past, India has both acquiesced and rebuffed Washington's oil sanctions against Iran.

My best understanding of Indian gov. in general is that these global issues between big powers are not something that India will care too much about. This is historically the case. Public sentiment in India can be with Ukraine because of Russia's outright invasion, but that does not have any influence on India's foreign policy. Indian people do not think about foreign policy when they head to the ballot box. There are plenty of other domestic affairs that Indians care about. Majority of 'em cannot point Ukraine on a map anyway

Well, US had yet to sanction Russia oil and gas industry, they only pledged not to buy Russian oil, well, boohoo, it's only 700,000 barrel a day...

As I say, I understand why India did this. But yes, it's like you said, this is going to be a mine field mixed with gold.

 

[Wood]

Russia is certainly freer than China. She would have been completely silenced in China.

I'm surprised that she was let go so easily. But maybe she should be careful getting poisoned like many other have.

 

[dBSPL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504364531845373954

 

[Amliunion]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504466317306626054

 

[Amliunion]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504462399805353989

 

[jhungary]

By not issuing new loans after recovering old ones.

But then you are issuing new loan to the Russian.......

And you have two things on two hand here.

On one hand, a hard working Chinese probably asking for a loan to buy a house and can repay with their hard work.
On the other hand, you have a Russian company who according to 4 world leading credit rating agency listed as "Close to Bankrupt" and asking for a loan so they can buy more stuff from you and yet incur another loan. Which it is uncertain for them to even paid it off.

If you are a loan officer in a Chinese bank, who will you choose?

 

[jamahir]

Yes, I remember a guy from Germany who had similar talk. He shot himself in a bunker subsequently. Silly fellow

Instead of being snarky you should be rational.

 

[Invicta]

No way - No way - this war has killed off the Russian Military Industrial complex and has given a massive steroid boost to Turkey with its UCAVs that perform so damn well in 2 wars recently !!!! Also the west for personal systems like SAMs and Manpads.

You have Su-34s / Su-30SMs / Su-25s all doing ultra low level bombing runs using DUMB BOMBs... no laser guided bombs or GPS(russian equivalent) guided SOW .. but line of sight - bombing runs using basic gravity fall dumb bombs and they are all getting shot down while they are doing it.

You have these same platforms incapable of performing basic SEAD operations to knock out Ukraines AD network ...

There is no joined up picture between the Russian Airforce or Army - no combined operations ..

Russia's weapons industry is dead after this war - no one is looking at any Russian equipment thinking they want a piece of that .

Future wars are smart wars with AI, and drones, and joined up network centric war - none of that is shown as the Russians dont understand that concept at all.

Exactly that is my take on this as well. In the current world of net centric warfare there is no coherence between different military assets deployed by Russia. This is so outdated.

Also where is the latest Russian hardware? What use is the best tank in the world if you are not using it to fight your wars.

 

[thetutle]

What would a Chinese Bread seller do if Russian pay them 1 barrel of oil for 100 breads?? Can the Bread seller than sell it? How? Go to the corner of a street and sell it on the road side? I mean, it may make sense if only him doing that. But then how about the same Russian who gave a Chinese Furniture Seller 1 barrel of oil for 100 chair? Or a mobile phone vendor 100 mobile phone? Or 100 pack chewing gum? How are you going to get rid of the oil? I mean, I made 100 bread, all those material I put into making that 100 bread I cannot get it back because I wasn't paid in Money but I got paid by a barrel of oil...., but I can't use the oil, it's not refined and I can't just put it in my car, nor can I sell it, it's not like there is a "oil r' us" in every corner in Chinese street taking rogue crude oil from Chinese street vendor....

Exactly, thats why it would never happen. The oil trade would be done in a RUB:RMB trade by oil buyer and oil seller who are professionals and the bread seller wold not be involved.

 

[Maarkhoor]

The thing is, that russia never cared for their soldiers. So he propably will push more and more into this chaos.

Suppose Putin don't care but Russian do care they will through away Putin but before it could happen Putin would do best to bring Russia as a winner and for that he would not mind to use nukes.

 

[Wood]

Instead of being snarky you should be rational.

Instead of telling people on the internet what to do, you should give us your opinions. We'll decide to take it or not based on our rational

 

[jhungary]

Exactly, thats why it would never happen. The oil trade would be done in a RUB:RMB trade by oil buyer and oil seller who are professionals and the bread seller wold not be involved.

Then how the Russian get the bread? If the bread makers are not involved,.

And you can't balance RUB:RMB because it's one side who pay the money, and the other side pay with oil...The same equation applies, where do the Chinese get the extra money to pay for the Russian oil to begin with?