Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Oldman1]

One thing I don't understand is Why Ukraine still have regular Brigade posted near Kyiv. I have counted 6 TDF/National Guard Brigade from Ratne to Chernihiv. 4 facing the Belarussian border and 2 National Guard and Special Brigade in Kyiv itself. And they still have 2 Mechanised brigades in reserve SE of Kyiv and SW of Zhytomyr (62 Mech and 110 Mech) .

There were only a few Belarussian unit facing them and no Russian unit in sight, it would be quite stupid to cross the line as per situation now. Why not just deploy the 2 Mechanised Brigade south to take Kherson? I don't think they are there to R&R as they have been in their position for more than 3 months. Are the Ukrainian expecting something in the Belarussian border?

Think it was mentioned there were possible 20k Russian troops going to be deployed in Belarus. Don't know if its the reservists or professional. But could be a distraction since 20k is not enough for any renewed offensive even with Belarusian troops combined. Having 8 brigades is alot to keep in the north by the Ukrainians for sure. Another reason why I mentioned about the defenses I put out earlier so something like this won't happen and allows Ukrainians to divert some forces to south or east knowing the defenses are pretty strong in the north. Also once the Ukrainians take norther Luhansk, they should also prepared defenses as well as destroy a few miles of rail lines leading from Russia to Ukraine especially for long term to make any renewed invasion and reoccupied Luhansk untenable and elsewhere.

Depends on whether or not Ukraine take Kreminna and Svatove. Both town runs supply line into Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk, and if either or both towns felt. There is no way to supply Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk can hold. The problem rather is will Ukrainian take them? There is no strategic value for both town other than being one of the towns in Luhansk, Russia see it as the last town they need to take to complete Luhansk conquest. Ukraine don't see it so, they may simply by-pass them and attack Starbolisk instead and really try to crack Luhanksk city itself.

And current intel suggest Kreminna is going to fall in the next 72 to 108 hours, Ukrainian are already fighting in the outskirt of Kreminna, and Savtove can probably last a week or so, but Russian don't have enough troop to guard the entire line.

View attachment 884232

This is the OSINT Map on Kreminna-Lysychans front. Every Square with a X on top is a Brigade. and there are 10 Brigade stack in between Lyman and Kreminna at this moment. 10 Brigade = 40,000 men.

Last intel Briefing I have access to claim Russia have 2 divisional strengths in the area or 5 regiment in total, 2 of them were just retreat from Lyman, so their loss is uncertain, and even if those 2 divisional strength are at full strength, you are talking about less than 25,000 men.

I pushed in the north as well.

 

[jhungary]

Think it was mentioned there were possible 20k Russian troops going to be deployed in Belarus. Don't know if its the reservists or professional. But could be a distraction since 20k is not enough for any renewed offensive even with Belarusian troops combined. Having 8 brigades is alot to keep in the north by the Ukrainians for sure. Another reason why I mentioned about the defenses I put out earlier so something like this won't happen and allows Ukrainians to divert some forces to south or east knowing the defenses are pretty strong in the north. Also once the Ukrainians take norther Luhansk, they should also prepared defenses as well as destroy a few miles of rail lines leading from Russia to Ukraine especially for long term to make any renewed invasion and reoccupied Luhansk untenable and elsewhere.

Well, Russian can't mask troop movement, they failed to do so in the last 7 months, I don't think they can suddenly clean up the act and become a master of disguise and materialise an offensive out of nowhere. Even so 6 Brigades are more than enough to deter or even blunt any Russian advance from the North. They don't really need the 2 Mech Brigades to be held in reserve, or they at least held all 6 TDF/National Guard Brigade on the line.

While it's unwise to send TDF/National Guard Brigade to take on the offensive in the East, they can replace Regular Brigade and act as reserve and relief force to consolidate hold once the regular retook those land. On the other hand, Ukraine are making 2 Brigade every month, they can spare 2 or even 4 and deploy them elsewhere, they are going to get incoming troop soon anyway, and if they were redeployed south, they can be moved back again if and when Russia try something in the North, they will know because US SATCOM would tell them Russia is building up force again, there are more than enough time to move those Capital Brigade back to defend the North if they have to.

I pushed in the north as well.

Well, that's a no brainer decision.

There are nothing to gain from taking Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk, they are just one town in an Oblast for the Ukrainian. As long as they hold the Lyman and Southern Approach, they can take those city any time. For the Ukrainian, their price is Starobilsk, always has been, without taking Starobilsk, the entire Northern Luhansk are protected, you need to take starobilsk to have a crack on Luhansk city itself. And once that is done, that's the entire Donbas because UKraine would just able to roll up the entire flank along Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia on their flank.

 

[Viet]

Christine Lambrecht in Ukraine
She brings good news.
Ukraine will receive the most modern air defense system from Germany: IrisT in a few days.
Ukraine will receive 7 systems.
1 system can provide aerial protection over a medium sized city.
Big city as Kiev requires 2.

Verteidigungsministerin Christine Lambrecht (SPD, 2.v.r) besichtigt mit ihrem ukrainischen Amtskollegen Olexij Resnikow (r.) im Getreidehafen von Odessa Flugabwehrpanzer vom Typ Gepard. Bild: DPA

Foto: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa

 

[Viet]

Annexation who?

Ukraine army continues the offensives at the north, center and southern front. Latest it breaking thru Russia defense line at Cherson.

Attribution: Ukraine Ministry of Defense
Ukrainian artillery gun goes "boom," somewhere in the Kharkiv front

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576729596674060288

 

[Viet]

Worthless sacrifices

First batches of Russian soldiers from mobilization sent to the fronts in Ukraine are dead.


“When asked how many of the 300,000 new Russian soldiers have been trained and will survive, Arestovich says: "None. They are poorly equipped, have no medicine and are armed with rusty rifles. They have no training at all. They don't even have a bad one, they don't have any – it's awful. It's like a professional boxer fighting against a schoolboy."

Russland beruft Zehntausende neuer Rekruten ein, die Berichten zufolge.

Kiew: Erste frisch einberufene Russen schon tot

Es sei, "als würde ein Profiboxer gegen einen Schuljungen kämpfen", sagt der ukrainische Präsidentenberater Arestowitsch zum Kampf der Ukrainer gegen frisch rekrutierte Russen. "Sie sind schlecht ausgerüstet, haben keine Medikamente und sind mit rostigen Gewehren bewaffnet." Es sei schrecklich.

amp.n-tv.de

 

[1ndy]

I'm not much of a fan of Russians but I support Russia in this war we want a multipolar world not unipolar world where usa shut down ur swift and u go broke , western sanctions destroyed economies when it didn't meet their expectations, we are over that and Russia and china are final nail in coffin to western black mails


Hi altitude bombers

Hi dear,

If you want multi polar world then join the russian mobilisation and fight the evil Ukraine. Stop posting here.

 

[1ndy]

East only hope a swift end to this war with Russia being able to export food and gas/oil.

We don't care who the winner is..

But reality is more ukraine wins on battlefield the more likely the war is going to be prolonged..Russia simply can't give back the annex territories.. ultimately Russians will escalate and it won't look good

Russia only has one thing left amd that is Nuclear if they work unlike other Russian systems.

 

[Paul2]

One thing I don't understand is Why Ukraine still have regular Brigade posted near Kyiv. I have counted 6 TDF/National Guard Brigade from Ratne to Chernihiv. 4 facing the Belarussian border and 2 National Guard and Special Brigade in Kyiv itself. And they still have 2 Mechanised brigades in reserve SE of Kyiv and SW of Zhytomyr (62 Mech and 110 Mech) .

There were only a few Belarussian unit facing them and no Russian unit in sight, it would be quite stupid to cross the line as per situation now. Why not just deploy the 2 Mechanised Brigade south to take Kherson? I don't think they are there to R&R as they have been in their position for more than 3 months. Are the Ukrainian expecting something in the Belarussian border?

Their force distribution is counterintuitive for sure.

I myself completely missed how they assembled forces for the Kharkiv offensive out of the blue.

The 93rd was doing something west of Izyum forest for 2 months, and then bang, they move north in an instant with units I completely lost track of 3 month ago, and here is an offensive.

 

[Paul2]

About the crowd in Putin's annexation party

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576254991160860673

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576255843896434688

Essentially like China, I would say Russia is even more Chinese politically than China itself.

I guess, this is what CPC will turn into in 5-10 years

 

[jhungary]

Their force distribution is counterintuitive for sure.

I myself completely missed how they assembled forces for the Kharkiv offensive out of the blue.

The 93rd was doing something west of Izyum forest for 2 months, and then bang, they move north in an instant with units I completely lost track of 3 month ago, and here is an offensive.

Well, they posted their troop in the Northern Border like they are going to be attack by the Russian anytime soon. That's what the Ukrainian is doing, either than or they are saving troop up for something other than Kharkiv and Kherson. I don't know.

Yes, the Kharkiv Offensive is a surprise. they didn't really let the Russian know any troop movement before H Hour D Day, even then it still has the Russian guessing. If I have to guess, the Ukrainian manage to use 93rd and 81st as smoke screen South West of Izyum, Russian thinking if the Ukrainian are going to try anything, it would have been from that direction. Instead, they amass troop and equipment North of them and when they attack Balakyela (Think I spell that wrong but whatever, you know what I meant). Further north, that's what got the Russian routed.

But I could be wrong. That's just my thought.

 

[Paul2]

The Russian mobilization force will reach the frontlines by mid-October and early november there will come in new waves creating another meat-grinder on the collision line.

I forsee or predict Russia taking off the gloves and things getting spicy from here on out but the Ukrainians will not fold but Russia will have to take it from them literally they give no charities ukrainians.

The Russians are also good at winning back wars when they are pushed to a corner just like the WW2 Russia came back from the brink of defeat but in this case Ukraine may win this conflict if Russia was to fail to take off it's gloves.

But the Ukrianians have proven to be solid so far and performed better then most assumed all tho they got territories annexed from them but still fighting for these territories to get them back

Russia simply has no armour to put that meat into.

They literally have as little as 430 tanks left in the entire theatre by one account. Staffed by adhoc crews, and made of assorted hardware, from T55s to T90s. I bet there is literally nobody younger than 60 today who trained on T55s. And most reservists have certainly only trained on T72s, not 64s, or 80s — which russia has pulled from storage at last, since they are low on 72s.

Ukraine must have at least 600 in running condition, and veteran crews. Their losses are lower, and they can put armour to use in meaningful ways.

The bloodbath is Hostomel is what a tank battalion can do, when put to proper use. 40 tanks shooting HE with autoloader every 6 seconds, until they empty their ammo stock. And they themselves are immune to their own shrapnel, and allied artillery landing in front of them.

 

[Paul2]

Well, they posted their troop in the Northern Border like they are going to be attack by the Russian anytime soon. That's what the Ukrainian is doing, either than or they are saving troop up for something other than Kharkiv and Kherson. I don't know.

Yes, the Kharkiv Offensive is a surprise. they didn't really let the Russian know any troop movement before H Hour D Day, even then it still has the Russian guessing. If I have to guess, the Ukrainian manage to use 93rd and 81st as smoke screen South West of Izyum, Russian thinking if the Ukrainian are going to try anything, it would have been from that direction. Instead, they amass troop and equipment North of them and when they attack Balakyela (Think I spell that wrong but whatever, you know what I meant). Further north, that's what got the Russian routed.

But I could be wrong. That's just my thought.

My guess is also that they held on at much more intense push on Kherson because they plan on repeating the same here after few inconclusive pushes made russians believe UAF staging for frontal assault.

Some part of that massive force blob staying in Mykolaiv is very likely jumping rocades to join the push from north-east

 

[jhungary]

My guess is also that they held on at much more intense push on Kherson because they plan on repeating the same here after few inconclusive pushes.

Some part of that massive force blob staying in Mykolaiv is very likely jumping rocades to join the push from north-east

Well, those are inconclusive mostly because the Ukrainian don't really devote their artillery and rocket artillery in Kherson, I said this like the 8th time now, had they done what Russian did, level the city and then move in with troop, they could have waltz into Kherson by now. Was thinking they are going to do that when they move 3 Artillery Brigade in the area. But no, they are all standing fast instead.

Evacuate the city, and then level it, anything can rebuild, it would not have waited this long if they had done that. I don't think putting more men into the area would do anything. They can, and they are, trying to strave the Russian out from what I am seeing.

 

[Viet]

Well, they posted their troop in the Northern Border like they are going to be attack by the Russian anytime soon. That's what the Ukrainian is doing, either than or they are saving troop up for something other than Kharkiv and Kherson. I don't know.

Yes, the Kharkiv Offensive is a surprise. they didn't really let the Russian know any troop movement before H Hour D Day, even then it still has the Russian guessing. If I have to guess, the Ukrainian manage to use 93rd and 81st as smoke screen South West of Izyum, Russian thinking if the Ukrainian are going to try anything, it would have been from that direction. Instead, they amass troop and equipment North of them and when they attack Balakyela (Think I spell that wrong but whatever, you know what I meant). Further north, that's what got the Russian routed.

But I could be wrong. That's just my thought.

I read the report by German army.
Balakhia. a small town, where two Russia army groups linked up, and the major weak point at Russia defense at Kharkiv.
Ukraine army initiated the assault, then amassed the troop Balakhia, additional 3 brigades in secret were brought in, overwhelming the Russians 4:1. The Russians were caught by surprise and fled in panic.
Russian army at Kharkiv were positioned as northern flank of attack. They were not prepared for center assault by Ukraine army.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576845139502596096

Mykhailivka(Kherson) under control of the Ukrainian armed forces.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576852910276689921

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576856501645324289

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576845139502596096

Mykhailivka(Kherson) under control of the Ukrainian armed forces.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576852910276689921

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576856501645324289

Borova and Shyikivka under control of the AFU

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1576847081091698688?s=20&t=nTiArALG-j9eYjZjtG9tJQ

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1576860529590558720?s=20&t=nTiArALG-j9eYjZjtG9tJQ

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1576858483663962112?s=20&t=nTiArALG-j9eYjZjtG9tJQ