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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

NATO can smell Russian blood and are going to lead the hunt?
More likely to prepare for Alpha Strike if shit really got real.

Are so crappy Russian radars that they can't track NATO airplanes without ADS-B transponders?

It seems more a psychological measure than a real useful thing.
You forget that NATO have a lot of Electronic Warfare Asset in the area. It's one thing to pinpoint NATO airbase and see plane takes off and land on Primary Radar, another issue whether or not Russia can see them airborne with EW asset like EC-130H, EG-18G and E-8A do the work.

And judging from their ability to seek and destroy Ukrainian Air/Ground asset. I will say the probably of them picking NATO task group up is more or less zero.
 
Russia will take weeks to take the first Phase line (North of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv down to South Central) and then get stuck on the way to Kyiv on a 3-pronged strike. From Chernobyl Power Plant, From Lutsk to Zhytomyr, and from Chernihiv) The assessment was they can get to Kyiv but can't take the city. And they will lose a lot of people doing it.

They are maybe able to take the approach up to Dnieper River, and maybe surrounding Kyiv, but they cannot take the entire Ukraine.


Why am I telling you what we already know? Look at the date of that video. It was made on February 19, 2022. 5 Days before the invasion.

Malcome Nance is a military intel guy, and he is right on all counts (except Russia did not come from Lutsk but chose a closer route to Zhytomyr.) And that's what a real Military Intel guy is like. Not the like of Scott Ritter.

And in fact, he is probably one of more optimistic analyst there are, even I have a more Pessimistic view if you had followed my post since the war.

@Viet @patero @F-22Raptor @Vergennes @aviator_fan @Wood @RoadAmerica @RescueRanger @nahtanbob @sammuel @Broccoli @ZeGerman @Paul2 @KAL-EL @James David @FuturePAF @MeFishToo
 
even after China's help?
China would help Russia in building a domestic automobile industry? Ok, we will see. I don’t think chinese are dumb, but if they do it they will face secondary sanctions.

Europe is gaining independence from Russia gas.
Russia gas just makes up 8 percent, 92 percent from other countries. Putin has destroyed the source of revenue he needs it.
 
That's quite foreseeable when we know they are going in alone. At the beginning people thought Belarus would be at least indulge into this, but no. And with Belarus out, Ukraine is too big for Russia to swallow. And it only leads to Ukrainian is swallowing Russia back. And this is pretty much the case now.

But yes, while I do expect Russia will fail in this adventure, I did not expect they fail this miserably....
Belarus?? Lol what?
 
Are so crappy Russian radars that they can't track NATO airplanes without ADS-B transponders?

It seems more a psychological measure than a real useful thing.
IFF and ADS-B are identical in theory but different in application.

In theory, both IFF and ADS-B can, and usually does, works in conjunction with radar scanning. Basically, the radar scan pick up a target and at the same time transmits a unique query that essentially asks 'Who/what are you?'. The target then respond 'American Airline 123', or something similar.

In application is where they differ and will mean the difference between life and death. Assume that I am an F-16. If you query me with that question 'Who/what are you?', I can tell if that query came from an IFF or ADS-B interrogator. If YOU are an IFF interrogator, I will respond. But if YOU are an ADS-B interrogator, I will not respond.


ADS-B allows equipped aircraft and ground vehicles to broadcast their identification, position, altitude and velocity to other aircraft and ATC. This is called ADS-B Out. Being able to receive this information is known as ADS-B In.​

ADS-B Out is when I broadcast 'Who/what' to everybody. I do not care if there is anyone to receive that broadcast.

ADS-B In is when I am able to receive any/all 'Who/what' broadcast from anyone, and what I do with that info is my business.

ADS-B In or Out is not IFF.

The IFF hardware does not recognize the ADS-B interrogator signal. The IFF transponder does not ignore that query, it simply does recognize it. You cannot ignore something that you do not know, in other words, you have to know me in order to ignore me. Get it?

The IFF transponder recognize certain unique signal characteristics. It can tell if the interrogator is 'Friend' or 'Foe'. If the interrogator is 'Friend', then it will respond. But if the interrogator is unknown, the default assumption will be 'Foe' and the transponder will remain silent.

So the issue is not how 'crappy' are the Russian radars. They can be first class for all we know. But all a radar does is make skin contact, nothing more. It requires COOPERATION from the target to give that 'Who/what' info. That is why ADS-B is called a cooperative air traffic control system.

So if NATO flyers are in 'dark' mode, they are known to each other, but not to the outside world. Any radar belonging to anyone can see a bunch of 'blips' all over the scope but that will be it. Nothing more. Each 'blip' will have the minimum of heading, airspeed, and altitude info. Nothing more. On the other hand, a NATO AWACS, for example, would have more identifying markers for all those 'blips', as to which country the target belongs to and what are their purposes.
 
15-30% depends on items.

Electricity went up the lowest around 9%, otherwise everyday supermarket item went up ~15% and luxury item was the worse.
I think Russia inflation is higher. Much higher. Europe’s energy cost rises by 10 folds. There is no reason why Russia increase of cost of living is not the same level. Not all but at least 10 folds in major items. Russia can’t import or export anything from and to the West. Look at Iran, venezuela, Cuba, inflation rate is about 1,000 percent.
 
Putin can't "declare peace", because he didn't have physical ownership of those 4 territories or Oblast.

I mean, what stop Ukraine from doing their own referendum on those 4 Oblast and come out with 96% favourable to remain in Ukraine? That didn't do much. On either side.

Most people speculate that Putin did this so he can claim "Oh these provinces are now Russia, my mission is complete" that would be an off road for him. But then, it wouldn't do much because Ukrainian would keep fighting either out in the open or using irregular. That mean nothing has change on the situation on the ground.

On the other hand, Western Support will not stop in a short while, it all depends on US, if US keep supporting Ukraine, the rest will follow (plus the fact that US dwarf all EU members combine anyway). And there is no change at least until 2024 during Biden Presidency.
Ukraine does not need to do a referendum.
They can simply announce that they have annexed the territories…
 
More likely to prepare for Alpha Strike if shit really got real.


You forget that NATO have a lot of Electronic Warfare Asset in the area. It's one thing to pinpoint NATO airbase and see plane takes off and land on Primary Radar, another issue whether or not Russia can see them airborne with EW asset like EC-130H, EG-18G and E-8A do the work.

And judging from their ability to seek and destroy Ukrainian Air/Ground asset. I will say the probably of them picking NATO task group up is more or less zero.
You can't be serious? What game is being played?

Alpha strike (United States Navy)​

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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Alpha strike is a term used by the United States Navy to denote a large air attack by an aircraft carrier air wing, first coined during the Vietnam War.[1] It is the Navy's version of the more widely used term "strike package."
An Alpha strike is typically a large strike representing a "deck load" of aircraft, i.e. the number of aircraft that can be brought to the flight deck, armed and launched against a high-value target. This will generally amount to about half of the aircraft aboard and will comprise aircraft from all squadrons on board and are also referred to as airwing-size strikes. The other half will normally have been recently recovered aircraft and will be parked and prepared for their next mission on the hangar deck below the flight deck. During an Alpha strike the carrier will remain into the wind and at General Quarters with a "ready deck" to recover any aircraft returning to the ship with battle damage. During the Vietnam War an Alpha strike also meant the target of a strike was specifically taken from a target list maintained by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and as such required JCS authorization.
The alternate form of carrier operations are "cyclic operations" during which a carrier will launch and recover aircraft (a launch and recovery is a complete cycle) on a prescribed schedule. Several factors will contribute to the length of a cycle depending on the type of aircraft, the time and distance to the target and the mission. With virtually all fast moving, jet aircraft aboard, carriers during the Vietnam War would launch and recover every 90 minutes and complete nine cycles daily over typically a 12- to 13-hour period. These carriers were generally assigned to Yankee Station located about 100 miles from the target area. When a carrier stood down after flight quarters another carrier would commence flight operations. Typically three and on rare occasions four carriers operated on Yankee Station and provided continuous fleet air operations around the clock. A carrier would typically be on the line for a "line period" of 30 to 35 days and then leave the line for six to eight days of rest and recreation. A deployment to the Western Pacific usually amounted to six line periods and typically lasted about 10 1/2 months including transit from and to the continental United States.
During the peak of the war a carrier typically launched 9,000 - 13,000 sorties. If a sortie may be used as a measure of activity, the periods from 1966 to early 1968 and 1970 to 1973 probably amounted to the most intensive level of combat flying in the history of naval warfare. Sometimes some very large air raids were staged by coordinating aircraft from three US Navy carriers in the Gulf of Tonkin and the US Air Force flying from airfields in Thailand. This could amount to 90 to 100 Navy aircraft and a similar number from the Air Force. During these very large raids either the Navy or the Air Force would strike first and the other service would re-strike the target 15 minutes later. The planning for these strikes was extensive, and typically a strike would remain over target no longer than two minutes in an effort to minimize losses in what was also the most intensive air defense system composed of fighters, anti-aircraft guns and missiles ever enco
 
You can't be serious? What game is being played?

Alpha strike (United States Navy)​

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to navigationJump to search
Alpha strike is a term used by the United States Navy to denote a large air attack by an aircraft carrier air wing, first coined during the Vietnam War.[1] It is the Navy's version of the more widely used term "strike package."
An Alpha strike is typically a large strike representing a "deck load" of aircraft, i.e. the number of aircraft that can be brought to the flight deck, armed and launched against a high-value target. This will generally amount to about half of the aircraft aboard and will comprise aircraft from all squadrons on board and are also referred to as airwing-size strikes. The other half will normally have been recently recovered aircraft and will be parked and prepared for their next mission on the hangar deck below the flight deck. During an Alpha strike the carrier will remain into the wind and at General Quarters with a "ready deck" to recover any aircraft returning to the ship with battle damage. During the Vietnam War an Alpha strike also meant the target of a strike was specifically taken from a target list maintained by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and as such required JCS authorization.
The alternate form of carrier operations are "cyclic operations" during which a carrier will launch and recover aircraft (a launch and recovery is a complete cycle) on a prescribed schedule. Several factors will contribute to the length of a cycle depending on the type of aircraft, the time and distance to the target and the mission. With virtually all fast moving, jet aircraft aboard, carriers during the Vietnam War would launch and recover every 90 minutes and complete nine cycles daily over typically a 12- to 13-hour period. These carriers were generally assigned to Yankee Station located about 100 miles from the target area. When a carrier stood down after flight quarters another carrier would commence flight operations. Typically three and on rare occasions four carriers operated on Yankee Station and provided continuous fleet air operations around the clock. A carrier would typically be on the line for a "line period" of 30 to 35 days and then leave the line for six to eight days of rest and recreation. A deployment to the Western Pacific usually amounted to six line periods and typically lasted about 10 1/2 months including transit from and to the continental United States.
During the peak of the war a carrier typically launched 9,000 - 13,000 sorties. If a sortie may be used as a measure of activity, the periods from 1966 to early 1968 and 1970 to 1973 probably amounted to the most intensive level of combat flying in the history of naval warfare. Sometimes some very large air raids were staged by coordinating aircraft from three US Navy carriers in the Gulf of Tonkin and the US Air Force flying from airfields in Thailand. This could amount to 90 to 100 Navy aircraft and a similar number from the Air Force. During these very large raids either the Navy or the Air Force would strike first and the other service would re-strike the target 15 minutes later. The planning for these strikes was extensive, and typically a strike would remain over target no longer than two minutes in an effort to minimize losses in what was also the most intensive air defense system composed of fighters, anti-aircraft guns and missiles ever enco
Well, preparation......again, I have already stated, US will NOT sit by idle and wait for Russia to do first launch, most likely this is a response to increased tension to the region.

You are talking about 100 to 200 sorties a day all of them gone dark, now, either it's just fun for these aviators to turn off their transponder, or they are making ready on something. And unlike Russia, NATO don't like to advertise what they are doing by repeatedly saying out loud, and I am guessing Russia should have known all NATO air asset in Eastern Europe has gone dark.

Ukraine does not need to do a referendum.
They can simply announce that they have annexed the territories…
lol.....

I think Russia inflation is higher. Much higher. Europe’s energy cost rises by 10 folds. There is no reason why Russia increase of cost of living is not the same level. Not all but at least 10 folds in major items. Russia can’t import or export anything from and to the West. Look at Iran, venezuela, Cuba, inflation rate is about 1,000 percent.
I don't know, that's what my friend told me before he left Russia.
 
The tweet is from 21st Sept - what are you implying.
Well, they are still dark as of a few days ago, and I am implying what I am implying.

Belarus?? Lol what?
Well, set aside training and how Ukrainian fought, because that we know after the war had happened. Belarus has 70,000 Active Troop and 300,000 reported reserves with conscript. That's a good chunk of manpower there. Let's say on war footing, Belarus mobilises 1/3 of those reserve, you are talking about 150,000 men on one flank.

Imagine it was Belarus troop that attack Ukraine from the North, maybe couple with some Russian unit like VDV or Spetsnaz, that will free up 2 or even 3 army to attack somewhere, can Ukraine handle that seismic shift? I don't know, but numerically, that will bring the troop number in Ukraine to roughly 400,000, that's more than enough on table to overwhelm the Ukrainian defender if Russia fought smart.
 
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How has Russia not yet blocked exit of males leaving the country? Incompetence or compassion? Doesn't make sense: if you arrest journalists or protestors, why not go all in and prevent 20-40 year old males from leaving

Russia never accepted Kosovo referendum as legit, calling it a big farce orchestrated by Americans.

Russia's plan is to therefore kill off every Ukrainian by war and take Kiev. Russia has 4 times the population of Ukrainian. Even if every Ukrainian dies from war, Russia still have 100+ million people left
Brainless argument you cut and paste so you have a negative score. It makes you sound uninformed. Japan took over eastern china with 1/10th of the population.
 

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