simply the best unbiased western analysis of Russian operations in the Donbass you will find
Colonol Markus Eisner PHD, head of the Austrian army's research and development
Major points:
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beginning of the war there were
93 Russian battalions (BTGS) vs. 81 UA battalions. Today its 103 vs. 60 as the Russians re-inforced theirs while the UA is suffering heavy attrition and many of their battalions lost their well trained professionals. Ukraine is rapidly losing battle capability.
- Popasnaya Breakthrough caused a massive cauldron. That the Russian deliberately did not fully close (massive idle forces in the north currently on standby and never used). Instead deliberately waited for UA to predictably send in heavy re-inforcements to get slaughtered
- Eventual UA retreat was chaotic and disorganized, with many troops running away on their own. (Russia is still picking up stragglers today)
-Himars system mainly attacks donbass militia who have less air defense. And expected to decrease in effectiveness with Russian adjustments (destroying them)
-m777 are garbage. Ukrainian general on record saying they have to constantly take them back to poland for shrapnel repairs as they are extremely prone to counter-battery fire.
- about half of UA equipment destroyed (Admitted by ukies, probably far higher)
-Heavy strategic attrition waged by precision Russian strikes (2800 missiles alone , with non-existant UA airforce
- Ukraine has 4 core strategic problems that Russia can exploit
- Generally extremely pessimistic, apologizes for being unbias as its his duty to be honest, and pays a tribute to a KIA ukrainian officer he personally served with.
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