Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[ZeGerman]

I will say, it has been Russian aim to garner domestic support to continue on with this war, not the Ukrainian. Not saying the Ukrainian can get away with more destruction on their own city, but there are "Allowed" to devastate their own city in a way that it will not get their own population riled up. So if they need to quickly move into a place, they can afford to level it and move in, they can't do it many times but there are leeway there.

Russian on the other hand, needs every support they can get to keep this war going, it's one thing they are attacking and they can shield their civilian from the horror of war but they can't cover the fact that their soldier is not coming home, family member are going to know and they can't really suffer 50k death a year, which mean if the war drag on, the propaganda side in Russia is a lot more concerning than the Ukrainian.

Russia would therefore need to focus on how this war is clean, doing humanitarian works, things that justify the number of losses to a point, what Ukrainian did to their own don't really sell to the Russian people, it has less of a value to domestic propaganda. Ukrainian on the other hand, can spin what happen on their own soil to whatever they want, they were attacked, Ukrainian want the Russian gone, want the war to end, and how it ends does not really concern Ukrainian that much, plus I don't think Ukrainian would digest Russian propaganda that much anyway.

But main sell of the russian side is how they are “protecting russians” in donbass/luhansk and now kherson/zaphirizhia areas.

Ukranians leveling kherson and donbass city will provide perfect propaganda for the russians. Showing the destruction and civilian casualties.

I think ukraine is taking this (what effect their action would have on russian war fatigue) into account. Showing restraint striking into russia, and showing restraint with collateral damage. Which is strategically sound.

 

[Broccoli]

I'm not Russia supporter, you're insane.

I live in West Europe.

And obviously I dont want a nuke falling over my head.



If you want to be brave against a nuclear state and you dont have nukes, it's ok, go ahead.

But I'm not so brave like you.

Apparently Ukrainians are brave enough as Russia is retreating despite being a nuclear state.

 

[jhungary]

But main sell of the russian side is how they are “protecting russians” in donbass/luhansk and now kherson/zaphirizhia areas.

Ukranians leveling kherson and donbass city will provide perfect propaganda for the russians. Showing the destruction and civilian casualties.

I think ukraine is taking this (what effect their action would have on russian war fatigue) into account. Showing restraint striking into russia, and showing restraint with collateral damage. Which is strategically sound.

That probably be true in March, April or May.....

The war is losing support quick, Russian don't really care about their sons are send to protect Russian. They care about their own Russian, if you know what I mean.

Also, I didn't say there are no value of making propaganda, I am just saying their focus has change, it may not work now.

 

[zectech]

Zelensky asks for more and more weapons to crush Putin.

Germans have the foresight to build up to prevent a further European War, to make Europe an undesirable target.

 

[Viet]

The Russian are getting slaughtered at the river crossings. They may lose so many men in the next 48-72 hours that Putin will do something rash, to prevent being overthrown.

If it’s to protect his head, I don’t think anything is off the table.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590844444349124608

That will become very ugly.

40,000 men, hungry and desperate, rushing to narrow escape doors. Putin is waiting too long before he agrees to retreat. The evacuation with men and materials will take a week. Dumb.

Ukraine artillery will turn the river in red.

Ukrainian servicemen fire from a position on a frontline in Kherson. Reuters.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590989265399582721

Part of the bridge was blown up (By Russians ? Ukrainians?)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590988620499918849

 

[Ali_Baba]

That will become very ugly.

40,000 men, hungry and desperate, rushing to narrow escape doors. Putin is waiting too long before he agrees to retreat. The evacuation with men and materials will take a week. Dumb.

Ukraine artillery will turn the river in red.

Ukrainian servicemen fire from a position on a frontline in Kherson. Reuters.

It would be interesting to know what priority is being given to the withdrawl - esp over heavy weaponary.

Ukraine should show no mercy at the crossing. Russians have shown no mercy in their tactics - levelling entire cities and towns ..

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591000520126509056

So much for the so called "controlled and planned withdrawal taking days of weeks". Russians as in Kharkiv ran away faster than the speed of light. If probably a good part of the personnel made it to the other side,they had most likely to abandon large part of their heavy weaponry.... we shall see in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591011541071335430

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591013666820083712

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591018407037906945

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591019141062098944

 

[jhungary]

It would be interesting to know what priority is being given to the withdrawl - esp over heavy weaponary.

Ukraine should show no mercy at the crossing. Russians have shown no mercy in their tactics - levelling entire cities and towns ..

What we are witnessing is another collapse in Russian defence.

A lot of report showing Russian Troop retreat across the river in panic, there are some picture and video show Russian try to row a rowboat cross the Dnieper.

They probably won't be able to bring anything over 20 tons across with the makeshift bridge and ferry, which mean ay tank and APC will be left behind.

After this. Ukraine have two choices. They can either

1.) Try to cross the Dnieper from Kherson and attack the Russian line.
2.) Hold at Kherson and put majority of the troop toward East of Zaporizhya

The first one is quite straight forward; you ride on the momentum of Russian retreat and advance. That line is freshly made, which mean it is the weakest point. But the river itself present the challenge, because that would be a bottleneck for Ukrainian to go across the river.

The second one is more tradition; you don't need to cross the Dnieper if you attack southward from Zaporizhya. But that line has been made since Feb/March, that line is going to be probably as tough, if not tougher than the one the Ukrainian try to crack Northeast of Kherson.

Or the Ukrainian do choice number 3, which is do both...

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591023484859482112

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591025225084571649

 

[Viet]

It would be interesting to know what priority is being given to the withdrawl - esp over heavy weaponary.

Ukraine should show no mercy at the crossing. Russians have shown no mercy in their tactics - levelling entire cities and towns ..

Depending on what Putin’s generals think what are priorities? What’s more worth?
If they believe tanks as T90 are more worth than foot soldiers then they bring tanks to safety as first before soldiers. Russia has many people. That’s why Russian soldiers run away leaving heavy equipment behind as seen at Kharkiv.

 

[Ali_Baba]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590985130579234816

>> Russians blew up the remaining parts of the Antonivskyi bridge... Looks like Russia is not planning to come back to "Russian" Kherson anytime soon.

What we are witnessing is another collapse in Russian defence.

A lot of report showing Russian Troop retreat across the river in panic, there are some picture and video show Russian try to row a rowboat cross the Dnieper.

They probably won't be able to bring anything over 20 tons across with the makeshift bridge and ferry, which mean ay tank and APC will be left behind.

After this. Ukraine have two choices. They can either

1.) Try to cross the Dnieper from Kherson and attack the Russian line.
2.) Hold at Kherson and put majority of the troop toward East of Zaporizhya

The first one is quite straight forward; you ride on the momentum of Russian retreat and advance. That line is freshly made, which mean it is the weakest point. But the river itself present the challenge, because that would be a bottleneck for Ukrainian to go across the river.

The second one is more tradition; you don't need to cross the Dnieper if you attack southward from Zaporizhya. But that line has been made since Feb/March, that line is going to be probably as tough, if not tougher than the one the Ukrainian try to crack Northeast of Kherson.

Or the Ukrainian do choice number 3, which is do both...

Agree - the next move for Ukraine is to launch an attack from Zaporizhya and drive the landbridge between the eastern and western zones in half.

The Dnieper does pose a problem for the Ukranian Armed forces now and the allies will need to provide alot of pontoons capable of transiting tanks to allow the Ukranian Army to cross the Dnieper and go for areas

Russia may want to try and go after all bridges that cross the Dnieper now with of slowing down Ukranian logistics and resupply but from what we have seen so far, their standoff weapons and systems do seem to lack the precision required to pull this off.

The reason question is if they do launch from Zaporizhya, do they head towards Mariupol first, or go for Melitopol. Mariupol has become a logistics hub for the Russian operations, ever since the Crimea bridge was blown up.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Ukrainian flag raised in Kherson as troops enter city

Ukraine is now in full control of the city of Kherson, with soldiers greeted in the main square by flag-waving locals who kissed, hugged, wept and chanted victory slogans after seeing them arrive.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Russia's defence ministry said: 'At 05:00 Moscow time today, the redeployment of Russian units to the (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River was completed. During the redeployment, not a single piece of military hardware or weaponry was left behind. All Russian service personnel were moved across, there were no losses.'

Russians are claiming that the withdrawl is complete and that they did not leave anything behind.. lets see. They have had plenty of time to organise this retreat with the Russian Army wanting to do it many weeks ago.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591041723949797381

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591042494103683073