Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen · Oct 12, 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579740996845572096

RoadAmerica · Oct 12, 2022

Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1580180721821683713

B-2 is obsolete. It cannot carry long range missile.

Obsolete my butt, why is China developing their own version of it if it’s obsolete??
Yes the jASSM and JASSM-ER are carried by the B2

Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen · Oct 12, 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580220549334470658

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580218527738306561

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580218154240053248

Meengla said:
I am going to just about skip this whole 'Part 2' of this topic and cut to the chase! I expect pretty much what was said before in not only Part 1 but also in Part 2. Basically, the same old, same old. I have been mostly away from this forum for several months due to some career reasons but I have tried to follow the course of this latest pivotal war in human history and, as of now, here is what I think the overall situation is, along with my personal observations:

Americans are not going to stop destroying Russia EVEN IF Russia totally abandons the recently captured areas and retreats. And a dictator like Putin can't be seen to have 'lost' so Russia won't retreat. If someone takes out Putin to stop this war then I have no issues; humanity is more important than the Donbas region or someone's pride in a former glory. Russia, as I have often said in the Part 1 of this topic, is 'The Sick Man of Europe'. It has no future unless it shrinks to the west of the Urals, (and with minus the Caucasus regions, which are very different from Russia). In that scenario, a big victory for the American-led neocons might be 'unfair' but that world will still be better than what the Russian political system can ever produce. I know I am saying controversial things here.

I will expound on my views later....

The world is safer if the US breaks up into 50 states.

RoadAmerica said:
Obsolete my butt, why is China developing their own version of it if it’s obsolete??
Yes the jASSM and JASSM-ER are carried by the B2

JASSM-ER doesn't have good range. Only 500 miles. By comparison, Kh-101 has range 2000 miles. B-2 doesn't have a large weapons bay.

Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen · Oct 12, 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580150079230312448

Paul2 · Oct 12, 2022

Something is happening in Tokmak... A third prong opening? Or another ruse to lure more RUAF to the south?

jhungary · Oct 12, 2022

Hack-Hook said:
you see there is no onboard camera there , but wasn't there a report from some ukrainian commanders that some of their tanks and cannons were destroyed?
beside that , i don't think you can use cruise missiles to target mobile target. the drone was not designed to hit mobile target it was built for stationary targets like fuel storage , ammunition depot , Powe plant , telecommunication center , command center , barracks , even some people claim its capable of hitting school , kindergarten and parks

There will still be optical feed from the operator ends. Either real time or delay.

If there is guidance system on board, which is a pre-requisite for hitting moving target, then there WILL be real-time or delay input, which mean some dude in a container somewhere (Well, doesn't have to be in a container) have to be watching the drone via a monitor and direct the drone to hit that moving target once they are launch, the drone itself cannot distinguish what is a moving military target and what is a moving civilian target.

I mean, that is not some kind of magic that Russia need to hold back, I am pretty sure if there is a successful hit, there will be operator video like the one I show being released by the Russian.

And no, there are no official report about Artillery Destroyed and APC, official report means officially reported by the Ukrainian chain of command, which is literally a report written by commander somewhere or official statement released somewhere. There are none. What it has I can find is someone quote the commander of 92 Brigade and said Shahed Drone destroy 4 artillery piece and 2 BMP. But there are no official reference anywhere, not even on the 92 Brigade commander social media account.

And finally, if they are designed to hit static target, as I explained, it wouldn't make a different on the field, because you won't be able to hit the field command structure and logistical base for Ukrainian Military does not exist, because weapon and munition came directly from the West.

Hack-Hook said:
Ukraine can move as much as it like , when there is no supply and logistic is broken you have lost . a question for you do you think this new offensive of Ukraine would have been successful if in last two month Ukraine didn't ran a campaign of hitting Russia supplies and fuel storage ? that's the basic of warfare , destroy enemy supply route , let their tanks ran out of fuel , let they go low on ammunition

How? Weapon will not be stored because it came straight from the west to the frontline. It's not like when Ukraine receive 4 HIMARS launcher and they say "Hey, let's store it somewhere for future use"

Same with ammunition and fuel, there are no fuel and ammunition produced by Ukraine, or they can only have limited capacity for that, most of those also come from the west, you may be able to hit field depot but majority of those would have been on the move.

In fact, military runs on a "Just In Time" logistic model, you don't usually store stuff if you are talking about food, ammunition and fuel (or in the military we called 1,3,5 logistic) because those things are in high demand in the field, you would have to move it almost immediately the time you received it. In most western military (not sure about Ukraine, but I think they have the same logistic system) If you need 1 bullet in the field, they will send you 3, 1 for you to use, 1 for backup, and 1 for "Just in case" the triplicate system. Which mean at any time, 3 times the logistic needed are on the move to where you need it in the field, and you can't hit those with the Shahed Drone, as they are in a truck somewhere going to the frontline.

If you are talking about country like US or UK, yes, there will be strategic reserve that you can hit because they have excessive supplies, but as they say, if they dump it somewhere, which mean those things aren't needed anywhere.

Hack-Hook said:
what himras achieved for Ukraine but cheaper .

Lol, no.

HIMARS is a GUIDED missile, you can guide HIMARS rocket to your target, that's why you keep seeing video of HIMARS rocket attack just about anything. Hard and Soft Target, they can hit tank on the field, APC, SPG, Artillery, they can hit Ammo Depot, they can hit command center, they can just about hit anything you need if you can see it. While Shahed can only hit static target.

On the other hand, was Shahed cheaper than an individual M30A1 rocket? Maybe cheaper, but should not be by a lot, each Shahed Drone is equal to 1 single M30A1 rocket, it's estimating that rocket cost anywhere around 70,000 to 100,000 depends on country that buys them, but it would be cheaper for Ukraine because they will be using US Stock, and US would almost certainly get them for cheaper from LM. If we say Shahed is 10,000 per (Well, considering a civilian DJI drone cost around 3000), that mean HIMARS rocket is about 5 to 7 times more expensive than a Shahed.

But if this article is anything to go by (It's pretty pro-Iran by the way)

https://min.news/en/military/55826f15f6fb083852b74a8a3325c6fe.html

It said each Shahed cost not more than $50,000 which is the same price for a M30A1 rocket at low end.

Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen · Oct 12, 2022

jhungary said:
It said each Shahed cost not more than $50,000 which is the same price for a M30A1 rocket at low end.

M30 costs 200 grand a piece. Drone is about 30 grand a piece. However the Archilles heel of HIMARS is it needs fuel to move. No power plant. No electricity. No electricity. No oil refining. No oil refining. No fuel.

jhungary · Oct 12, 2022

Paul2 said:
Something is happening in Tokmak... A third prong opening? Or another ruse to lure more RUAF to the south?

View attachment 886445

I have been saying for the last couple of days the Ukranian are massing force around Orikhiv......and predicted a move South to Melitopol when I talked to @Oldman1 a few days ago.

I am not surprised at all if they are making a move now, I mean first they stretch the Russian supply line in East Kherson, then they attack the Kerch Bridge, that's aim to strain supply line from Russia to Crimea and to Kherson, if they attacked toward Melitopol, that will cut off Kherson GLOC....

That's what we will do, and that's what I said a couple of days ago.