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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

You seem to talk from ignorance not knowledge..
The US was was a top oil producer .. but not anymore..it is a fact.. it is tapping in its strategic reserve..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danebe...e-despite-tight-oil-supplies/?sh=6830291a6456

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/us-oil-imports-by-country

You can bring your own sources and I will bring mine. US produced almost same mount of oil per day as Russia and Saudi Arabia put together. https://investingnews.com/daily/res...nd-gas-investing/top-oil-producing-countries/

Only 20% of its oil is imported from OPEC+ countries. Its insignificant. Oil is is maintained at a global price level. Releasing of strategic reserves is not a sign of oil shortage but the theory is that if you offset a bit of the 2m/day loss the spike won't be as high.
 
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why do you lie?


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lol he didn't even know US open the Strategic Reserve because what they drilled went to other country to balance supplies instead of back in US, which is what they normally do. That does not mean US stop drilling and producing oil......
 
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There's talk of Kherson falling to Ukraine soliders in the next week. If that happens the war now is completely unwinnable for Russia unless they use nuclear weapons. Crimea will be in range of American HIMARS rocket systems!!
 
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Two points I have been pondering:
1. US released as a statement that the assassination (via car bomb) in Moscow was sanctioned by Ukraine. I am not sure what the value of releasing that statement was other than a deliberate measure to be in a position to at least tell Ukraine a month from now to settle and that its aid is not unlimited.

2. All this myth about Russia's ability to wage a cyber war in a full scale battle turned out to be hollow. Seems like Russians cyber ops are good as common criminals but they weren't able to overwhelm Ukrainians. Granted Ukranians are smart in that department and got help from US military and Microsoft to where Russian's weren't even able to disrupt the train system (despite multiple attempts). Looks like Russia cyber forces were as incompetent as its air and ground forces. My sympathy is with the families of the young men that went and did this out of duty for their country.
naaaaah you're just switching sides.
 
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There's talk of Kherson falling to Ukraine soliders in the next week. If that happens the war now is completely unwinnable for Russia unless they use nuclear weapons. Crimea will be in range of American HIMARS rocket systems!!
lol, next week is next to impossible. Unless Russian line buckled on the entire front. I don't see that likely.

Probably next month, the Ukrainian may take or at least threaten Nova Kakovhka tho. After that, in about 2 or 3 weeks, they can start threatening Kherson.
 
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lol, next week is next to impossible. Unless Russian line buckled on the entire front. I don't see that likely.

Probably next month, the Ukrainian may take or at least threaten Nova Kakovhka tho. After that, in about 2 or 3 weeks, they can start threatening Kherson.
Winter will soon and both sides will be bogged down until next spring. You may get winter units battling it out but won't achieve much. Russia will try and buy until more soldiers can be trained and more equipment manufactured.
 
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Again, bear in mind, this is not individual personnel, nor individual equipment failure, but a systematic failure of the entire system
The Soviet doctrine, as far as I know, is: First to suppress the enemy with superior firepower and then to destroy it by encircling it with low-trained but large numbers of soldiers. The operation of this system depends entirely on the very good functioning of the army logistics.

Their disdain for guided munitions and finding them both mostly unnecessary and excessively expensive prepared the end for the Russians.

First, their logistics collapsed. Because they relied so much on unguided shells, they needed an excessive amount of unguided shells. This put an enormous strain on the logistics system. Ukraine's actions were the spice of the matter.

Second, the Russian artillery was destroyed without a fight because of the NATO systems, which have longer ranges than the Russian artillery systems and which make precise shots.

The fact that they considered guided munitions mostly unnecessary also showed that they were an immoral society that didn't care about the lives of civilians!
 
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India got a request to press the Russians...which we did: S Jaishankar on Ukraine war​

India Today Web Desk - 15h ago
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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Thursday said that India, acting on a "request", pressed Russia on the safety of a nuclear power plant which was near the fighting zone during the country's ongoing war with Ukraine.
India got a request to press the Russians...which we did: S Jaishankar on Ukraine war
India got a request to press the Russians...which we did: S Jaishankar on Ukraine war
Jaishankar, who is on his first visit to New Zealand, said India is willing to do whatever it can to facilitate a solution to the Ukraine crisis.
"When I was in the United Nations, the big concern at that time was the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant because there was some fighting going on in the very proximity to it," said Jaishankar at an event with business leaders in Aukland.


"There was a request to us to press the Russians on that issue which we did. There have been other concerns at various points of time -- either different countries have raised with us or the UN has raised with us. I think at this time whatever we can do, we will be willing to do," PTI quoted Jaishankar as saying.

Also Read | India is on the side of peace: Jaishankar on Russia-Ukraine war at UNGA
Maintaining India's neutral stand on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Jaishankar said it is natural that different countries would react a little differently.
"To me, the diversities of the world which are quite evident will also naturally lead to a differential response and I would not disrespect the position of other countries as I can see that many of them are coming from their threat perception, their anxiety, their equities in Ukraine," he said.
In this situation, Mr Jaishnakar said he would see what India can do, "which obviously would be in the Indian interest, but also in the best interest of the world".
Since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, India has called for peace and the need to end the war through diplomacy.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephonic conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. PM Modi conveyed India's readiness to contribute to peace efforts and asserted that there cannot be any military solution to the conflict.
(With inputs from PTI)
Also Read | Zelenskyy thanks PM Modi for support amid Russia-Ukraine war
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Winter will soon and both sides will be bogged down until next spring. You may get winter units battling it out but won't achieve much. Russia will try and buy until more soldiers can be trained and more equipment manufactured.
Winter in the South and Winter in the North is quite different, being coastal, Winter will be mild at the beginning in the South than Winter coming in the North. It will give Troop in the south a few more weeks to fight before everything frozen over near December, Average temperature in Kherson is 2 to 9 degree C in Kherson during November

Ukraine will have at least up to Mid-November before temperature drop below a point thing don't work anymore, which give Ukraine at least 5 more weeks before both sides have to dig in.
 
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The Soviet doctrine, as far as I know, is: First to suppress the enemy with superior firepower and then to destroy it by encircling it with low-trained but large numbers of soldiers. The operation of this system depends entirely on the very good functioning of the army logistics.

Their disdain for guided munitions and finding them both mostly unnecessary and excessively expensive prepared the end for the Russians.

First, their logistics collapsed. Because they relied so much on unguided shells, they needed an excessive amount of unguided shells. This put an enormous strain on the logistics system. Ukraine's actions were the spice of the matter.

Second, the Russian artillery was destroyed without a fight because of the NATO systems, which have longer ranges than the Russian artillery systems and which make precise shots.

The fact that they considered guided munitions mostly unnecessary also showed that they were an immoral society that didn't care about the lives of civilians!
The entire Soviet Doctrine was built based on what DOD describe as Area Targeting. They use their troop and resource to saturate an area of target, instead of what we do in the west and what the Ukrainian is currently doing, which is to seek weak point and attack your enemy center of gravity. All their unit are build based on that, and all our unit are build base on our own doctrine. That's why they deploy their troop in a bloc of Battalion, we deploy in companies and sometime even platoons.

I wouldn't say they disdain PGM, rather they don't really trust it or use it according to their doctrine, because you need to take down the entire area, and swamp your troop in, it's really pointless to seek weak point because you are going to attack all of them anyway, which mean they really don't need PGM that much the way they operate.

The thing is, Russia military knows their school of thought were out of date. They were desperate to change and that what 2008 Military reform (or 2015, I don't remember which one) is for. But then that mean you will need to change the entire structure, which mean cutting force that you don't use and changing or redirecting contract to new supplier which is going to hurt the upper echelon because they are all in bed with the supplier in Russia.

So when one thing fail, it all started to fall apart, and that started from Russia trying to bite more than they can chew. They started 3 lines of axis for general attack when they are trying to take every town and every city in between, This mean they would need to constantly supply their military for that month they are trying to do that, which they can't because that's impossible in military term, and they aren't used to splitting their force up like that, Bear in mind almost all war Russia fought before Ukraine was one directional, and with local support. Unlike in Ukraine.

Even US when we attacked Iraq using a 3 pronged approach (Marine from South, 3rd ID go around and attack Baghdad direct and Airborne taking Northern Iraq) we don't try to take every town because we know we can't as you will depleted your force and strain your supply line because once you used up your supply, your truck will need to go back all the way to staging point, and nobody can have a "Wagon" that big and that long.

The reason why NATO system works is because we pin point their C&C and pin point target with high priority (communication hub, staging point, ammo depot) all those would affect how the enemy fight, and it will compound the problem simply because the size of Russian unit.
 
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lol, next week is next to impossible. Unless Russian line buckled on the entire front. I don't see that likely.

Probably next month, the Ukrainian may take or at least threaten Nova Kakovhka tho. After that, in about 2 or 3 weeks, they can start threatening Kherson.

Remember when I mentioned about M1117s should be sent? Exactly for that reason. And I think the Ukrainians are capable of operating them and using them for scouting or recon quite well.

lol, next week is next to impossible. Unless Russian line buckled on the entire front. I don't see that likely.

Probably next month, the Ukrainian may take or at least threaten Nova Kakovhka tho. After that, in about 2 or 3 weeks, they can start threatening Kherson.
Saw satellite pictures of them setting up trenches around Nova Kakovhka, not impressed. Easily to shred them in the trenches with accurate artillery fire and HIMARS as well as drones with grenades, even use drones at night while attacking them simultaneously with vehicles and infantry.
 
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Retaking Crimea is probably not possible until Ukraine have the same ratio of men and equipment than Russia.

Bear in mind the Russian line is currently stretch thin, but when they keep losing territories, they will increase their troop density in the remining stronghold.

On the other hand, Russia still have advantage at sea, it's one thing for Ukraine to defend against Russian offensive naval operation. but another to fight off a defending Russian navy.

And finally, there are two access point from Ukrainian mainland to Crimea, and that would favor the Defender because you limited your approach, and Ukraine does not have a good airborne or air assault force that can take objective inside Crimea and hold it. Which mean the defence would be heavily favourited.

That said, I would say Ukraine does not need to actually take Crimea. Once Ukraine roll over the land bridge and destroy the kerch bridge, and put AD/A2 asset in and around Crimea. And shut off electricity and water flow into Crimea, they would have to surrender eventually or basically starve the entire garrison, along with the entire Crimea population with it.
If the Ukrainians can get close to Crimea with HIMARS, the Russian Navy will have to pull back because of also threats by Harpoons and other missiles. Something to think of providing Ukrainians with ability to hit ships in every part of the Black Sea since they can never match ton for ton with ship production, but large long range missiles would be enough to compensate. If the Ukrainians can whittle down their defenses and push them back from defending the narrow strip of road from the mainland to Crimea even with the Russian artillery, they have a good chance. No air assault, remember I mentioned about providing helos?
 
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