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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

(Another) big defeat for Russia that is hard to digest.

In the first pages of this topic(first thread), I have repeatedly written about the corruption and structural problems in the Russian army, and I wrote that this adventure will seriously damage Russia's 'mighty land force' image. And that a country with a diplomatic tradition like Russia should not fall into such a simple trap. Maybe regulars of the thread will remember. At that time, many pro-Russian friends made fun of what I wrote.

Russia had to provide the appropriate political way in order to turn the conditions in its favor over time with a solution that would 'save its face' asap. Because as the war progresses on the field, the staff of the army will continue to blush the state. At this point, a U-turn is no longer possible. Either complete defeat has to be digested( I think it is out of question with current Kremlin) or Russia has to become even more aggressive.

I am happy for Ukraine. However, conditions will become much more risky for our region, and this should be taken into account. There is both Russian military incompetence and political folly, which can be manipulated by the western bloc, the kind of combination that could create a dangerous reaction for a country with Russia's capabilities.
You have good points.

I also predicted in the first week of invasion Russia economy would collapse, Russia living standard get lowering, Putin making Russia to a chinese colony. However I never imagined such low scale of Russia army incompetence.

The worst of all is constant cheap propaganda by Moscow that tries to camouflage everything. Lies and deceptions prevail over everything.
 
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They are going to lose chunk of occupied territories East of Izyum, without Kupiansk unless Russia can build a Railway network from Rostov before winter (In a month or so time), they can't really supply the Russian force at the far east of Luhansk. They would need to once again depends on the road network and we all saw how that ends the last time.

Whatever supplies they have in Luchansk will be it for a while, depends on how much logistic effort the Russian can speed up from Crimea, the Russian force in the East may not have enough supply to last thru winters......

They are going to lose chunk of occupied territories East of Izyum, without Kupiansk unless Russia can build a Railway network from Rostov before winter (In a month or so time), they can't really supply the Russian force at the far east of Luhansk. They would need to once again depends on the road network and we all saw how that ends the last time.

Whatever supplies they have in Luchansk will be it for a while, depends on how much logistic

North front is probably lost for russians at the moment, UAF made sucessfull bridghead over severnodoneck river, so they will probably conitnue towards border instead to donbas.
 
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If you want to see how of a shitshow the russian army retreat was look no further. This is what the chinese want as an ally against the west btw.
In the last 3-4 months, I think at least 20-30 more events like this have been caught on UAV cameras. And even worse, these events are not individual incidents actually, reflecting a part of big picture.

Social psychology adapts easily to the conditions and so quickly adopts the new normal. The image of the Russian ground army was shattered in less than 6 months.

Staff incompetence, even incompetence at the commanding levels of the army, cowardly soldiers who are not willing to fight, technical impossibilities, logistic failures, looting and desertion incidents, fronts where the chain of command is destroyed... Even in PSYOPs, where the Russian military has traditionally been strong, we see it lagging behind.

Russia lost its 'military power epaulettes' on Ukrainian soil, mostly. Russian policy makers will feel the consequences of the radical change in the psychological impact of their country on different parts of the world and in all areas. It's a big country with nuclear deterrence, but there's a big void as the conventional sense.

It have nuclear deterrent but struggling with numerous problems in production and supply chains in all other conventional systems... As the war progresses, Russia's leverages will weaken more and more. (Europe is about to get through the worst, they just need 1-2 years.) All this, I fear, could lead Russia into a dangerous game.
 
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Maybe a major russian defeat is humiliating, and it does pose a risk of some major russian respons in Ukraine or somewhere else, in order for Putins regime to save face. Its a threat the world has been living with since the 50s. It is what it is.
Ukraine has every right to defend itself, and the rest of the world has the moral responsibility to support them. Russia has to be contained while they, by themself, figure out how to get rid of Putin and his regime.
 
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With the siege of Kyiv ending in a fiasco (I think it was the second or third week of the war), anyone capable of strategic thinking could see how Russia got stuck in a quagmire and how this business turned into a counter-factor that would wear Russia out tremendously. Russian propaganda accounts have held up well to this day. But failure on the field (and at the table) cannot be covered up for long with just social media.
 
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With the siege of Kyiv ending in a fiasco (I think it was the second or third week of the war), anyone capable of strategic thinking could see how Russia got stuck in a quagmire and how this business turned into a counter-factor that would wear Russia out tremendously. Russian propaganda accounts have held up well to this day. But failure on the field (and at the table) cannot be covered up for long with just social media.
They didn't even know what they wanted to do. It's as if they had no clear target. What's the point of declaring DPR and LPR independent 2 days before you invade the entire country to annex them and grab more land. They sent their men with bad logistics,they fought here and there without having a clear target,retreating here,going there,trying to get that place,then going to another place,then going east,it's stupid.
 
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They didn't even know what they wanted to do. It's as if they had no clear target. What's the point of declaring DPR and LPR independent 2 days before you invade the entire country to annex them and grab more land. They sent their men with bad logistics,they fought here and there without having a clear target,retreating here,going there,trying to get that place,then going to another place,then going east,it's stupid.

Russia's main objectives were a "shock" attack and invasion which main goal was to make Ukrainian armed forces collapse to achieve quick victory (which failed),they hoped to rally support of Russian speaking Ukrainians (which failed),a rapid attack on Kyiv to decapitate Zelensky government and quickly install a puppet government (which failed).

After that they totally got lost,always revising their objectives down coupled with the total incompetence of their armed forces.


 
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They didn't even know what they wanted to do. It's as if they had no clear target. What's the point of declaring DPR and LPR independent 2 days before you invade the entire country to annex them and grab more land. They sent their men with bad logistics,they fought here and there without having a clear target,retreating here,going there,trying to get that place,then going to another place,then going east,it's stupid.
The Russian military has a number of problems that it is trying to deal with. However worst of all was the corruption in the command. Putin did not see this until the war began.
 
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