Not exactly, Russians cannot sustain an indefinite war. Invaded country will always be at an advantage as long as it can fight back. Sure Ukraine can't fight conventional war indefinitely, but it can mount low intensity guerilla warfare as long as necessary. The same forced Soviets to leave Afghan lands. Ukrainians are much better fighters than Afghans and have a professional military plus superior weaponry for guerilla warfare.
This hype of Russians having Soviet warmachine capable of outstripping others in defense production is just false rhetoric. USSR war production was powerful because the West secretly helped them against Nazis and to continue the threat to feed their industrial complex. If the Russians did have this unstoppable defense production, we wouldn't be seeing WWII tanks in Ukraine right now.
@jhungary
Russia can't outstrip losses with production, that's pretty clear, otherwise they won't be resorted to using reserve tanks such as T-64 and you know the situation of equipment regeneration is particularly bad when they think using T-55 en-masse was a good idea. I mean, that's just common sense, if their production of new tank is able to catch up with losses, they will never dip into reserve stock. Unless they don't want to win this war.
Ukraine can, and probably already did start asymmetric warfare behind the line, all kind of story from Kherson partisan group has surfaced once Kherson has been liberated, while we haven't heard anything when they are still occupied. so we can probably assume the same effort was created, mor at least in place for Ukrainian partisan group when those territories felt to Russia, we just didn't hear about those stories like we never did on Kherson while it still under occupation.
"If a year ago somebody had told me I'd become a partisan or kill somebody, I'd have laughed at them. But here we are," says Vladyslav Nedostup, a sociology graduate and car-parts dealer who sought "bloody revenge" after a former classmate and her daughter were killed by a Russian missile.
www.rferl.org
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, underground resistance movements found ways to fight back. Some locals sent information about Russian troop movements to the Ukrainian military. Others painted the Ukrainian flag on buildings and monuments.
www.rferl.org
The issue here for the Russian is that, like in WW2. Whether or not the Russian can curb the insurgency and start a defensive conventional war, because we have to expect there are going to be pro-Ukrainian element left inside these territories to provide Ukraine with information and even as an active participant for the defensive measure, this is what Germany failed to do back in WW2, and I don't really see Russian work is better than Germany in any parameter I can find. Which mean this is going to be tough for the Russian. Because you can't really fight a defensive war when you are also attacked from the inside.
That's why in my previous post, I gave them 30% chance that the Russian can hold the line intact in the next 2 months. I don't see any evidence suggest the Russian can deal with the insurgency activities as it ramp up, which if we assume there are insurgent element inside, then it is naturally we have to assume they will ramp up partisan activities to aid the counter offensive.
Oh yeah the same about Makarivka where it went from "we retreated to allow them in and bomb them hard" "we recaptured the settlement" to "our counter attacks failed, the Ukrainians are still in".
That's what they said all the time.
When the Russian retreat from Kharkiv, these people say "Oh we retreat to bomb them from across Russia"
When the Russian retreat from Kherson, they say "We are going to use nuke, so we withdraw."
Did you remember this post being circulated here around the time those places being liberated??
What funny is that it is the same people who said "Russian is fighting the war with kids gloves so not to damage the country and population much."
LOL
Indians are clearly pro russian, understandable given their historical strategic relationship.
