Both Merkel and Fr.Hollande admitted live that Minsk 2 was a trick to gain time and prepare Ukraine against Russia.
I feel this is taken somewhat out of context.
The goal clearly was to pump up ukranian defence but more as to avoid any military ambitions from Russia then “starting a war down the line”.
Why? Cause at the same time germany and france massively invested in trade and diplomacy with russia. Germany even invested many billions in this. Sometimes directly opposing USA.
One problem is what would happen to minorities after Ukraine gets those areas back. It should be bound to a new agreement. Minsk 2 is cancelled and Belarus is not neutral so lets call the new agreement Beijing 1. It would protect the minority rights after Ukraine takes back those lands. Otherwise no one can guarantee a revenge slaughter wont happen there.
This should be overseen. Perhaps by UN.
Though to join EU there are minority rights to maintain as well.
I think this fear is partly overblown.
Civilian casualties were very very low last years before russian invasion.
And we have also not seen much revenge killing in the 50% territory ukraine retook.
It also should involve demilitarised zones as Russia pulls back troops Ukraine will also pull back its military in neighboring regions and wont start building new fortifications(as in Minsk 2). For example contact regions Kharkiv Dnipro , Zaporijia-Kherson(Ukr controlled parts) should be demilitarised in parallel with Russian controlled regions. It cant happen with one move but sequentially. First step Zpr Kherson regions gradually should become demilitarised from both fighting sides as Zaporijia and Kherson is integrated back to Ukraine with Beijing agreement protecting the minorities. Then if this goes well after some years of positive feedback from both sides it can continue with demilitarising other two regions Donetsk ,Luhansk and Ukraine demilitarising Dnipro Kharkiv regions and integration back to Ukraine.
This seems reasonable in case of a stalemate.
but russia ripped apart many guarantees and treaties and is not to be trusted.
Seeing how ukraine is readying a counteroffensive i would first continue to see if “kick out russia” is absolutely not a viable option.
Crimea is another issue which should be handled away from other 4 regions. It belongs to context of 2014. It should be evaluated in context of 2014 coup instead of 2022 operation. Russia also protected its Black Sea fleet as well as blocks nato accession of Ukraine with the Crimean referandum. Usa made similar referandums in Kosovo and South Sudan as well. Unless the situation goes back to pre 2014 which is highly unlikely and unrealistic I doubt any concessions would be given by Russia about Crimea. Also Ukraine cant be forced to recognise this area but has to accept current realities. Nato nonmembership issue can be added to peace initiative with all those conflicted regions it is unapplicable. It is worse than Russia taking Cuba and Venezuella to Csto and mounting mrbms or Zircons there since those two are not at directly conflict with Usa.
Ukraine was offering Nato nonmembership right before invasion.
Might be on table but do not forget ukraine had security guarantees from russia for giving away its nukes.
In place of nato there would have to be heavy security promises (usa/china).
Also..nato just armed and trained ukraine close to nato standard.
Incorporating it into nato would be very attractive for the alliance.
Russian allies like China and Iran are also important. Firstly they know that now this issue turned as a trap to take down Russia and they feel threatened as well if Russia falls the next would be them. Also if Russia feels isolated it will be no holds barred fight for Russia using anything without restricting itself. Allies can convince Russia to fight a bit more lightly focusing on indirect targets like supply lines, bridges, ammo depots and air defenses to degrade Ukraine offensive capabilities and stop the counterattack instead of high casualty strategies to deescalate the situation as well as convincing Russia to not advance further other than the current ongoing areas. Especially China can convince Russia about reintegration of Zaporijia and Kherson regions and demilitarisation plan as a first step. After several years if peace holds(no con business like Minsk 2) a new leadership or even Putin himself can continue with Donetsk and Luhansk with some more amendments than Kherson region as these are the main Russian speaking areas.In return sanctions can be gradually lifted as 4 regions are integrated sequentially.
That is at least my take on this issue. We cant go anywhere saying destroy the Russian invaders or destroy the Ukr banderists.
Kicking out russia and rebuilding ukraine with its frozen assets seems a more fair solution.
russia itself will not be invaded/disbanded and as such i do not see China move in either. They benefit from a weak little communist brother selling them discount oil/gas and weapon tech.
Your points are well thought out. But more for a situation of a long stalemate…not at the eve of an ukranian counterattack.
amp.dw.com
