Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638908348467748865

 

[Ich]

Medwedew, nick name “Putin’s mad dog”, is just a big mouth.
Russia production rate is 20 T90 per month.
With now Westen sanctions in place on chips, semiconductor, microcontrollers, etc. they will produce 10 per month.

But....but....they have all the Ukrain washing mashines!!!1!!

 

[kingQamaR]

If such Depleted or chemical weapons are used in a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it will be disastrous.



.

Ukraine clearly gives permission for the use of these shells on its territory. Not sure what it's got to do with russia, they just need to get out of the way, no one is stopping them!

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Ukraine clearly gives permission for the use of these shells on its territory. Not sure what it's got to do with russia, they just need to get out of the way, no one is stopping them!

Chemical weapons?? If so, Ukraine is moving into a dangerous war that will be paid for by its citizens' in the future.

 

[ZeGerman]

Chemical weapons?? If so, Ukraine is moving into a dangerous war that will be paid for by its citizens' in the future.

I guess they prefer that low risk from a few shells compared to having their cities bombed to rubble, the countryside mined and themselves having to go through “bucha” massacres and having their children abducted to siberia??

 

[kingQamaR]

Chemical weapons?? If so, Ukraine is moving into a dangerous war that will be paid for by its citizens' in the future.

Russia use it in all their main battle tanks since the late 70's, as does China Germany,Britain USA and France etc. It's been standard issue for 30 plus so maybe do some research before making silly comments!

 

[Ich]

Russia use it in all their main battle tanks since the late 70's, as does China Germany,Britain USA and France etc. It's been standard issue for 30 plus so maybe do some research before making silly comments!

Oh man, do a search at google...

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638836846258995200

some russian complaining about getting himarsed

 

[Viet]

But....but....they have all the Ukrain washing mashines!!!1!!

Why the Russians don’t self produce washing machines? Why they steal from others? The largest country on earth as the largest thief on earth.

 

[The SC]

ISW updates. The Russians entered Verkhnokamianske..​

Urgent. The fortified area in Marinka is in the hands of the Russian army and Wagner has entered a new phase of the Battle of Bakhmut ..

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638962537516367872

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638967565702553601

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638984674767667202

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638985483429588993

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638866021988565000

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638959148845989888

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638989230302023692

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638967108024270848

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638948949703770112

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638936911975677952

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638928947252527109

 

[F-22Raptor]

Russia can fight in Ukraine for two more years at current intensity, Lithuania says

The chief of Lithuania's military intelligence said Russia has enough resources to continue the war in Ukraine for two more years at the current intensity.

www.reuters.com

I previously stood on the estimate of 2 years, and 6 months, of which 2 have passed already. Even a tiny state like Lithuania will have more intel analysts working on Russian losses than this entire forum, so lets believe them as all of out estimates now span around the same 2 to 3 more years at around current level of attrition rate.

However, nobody can predict eventual flareups, and how much will Ukraine will be able to attrite during major counterattacks. It might be few percents above Russian monthly casualties, or they can lose double digit of their force in one month, or it can be a localised, or front-wide collapse, which will advance that date much faster.

Russian resupply ability is finite on:

1. PGMs — built with now unavailable Western parts
2. Planes — built with now unavailable Western parts
3. Tanks with post-nineties level optics, and targeting — built with now unavailable Western parts
4. Artillery tubes — Russia has sold mind boggling amounts of its artillery to African countries in nineties, so they are at most at 1/3-1/4 of what USSR had.
5. Engineering vehicles — not manufactured in Russia
6. Comm systems — they will inevitably run out of USSR era command vehicles, but they can always switch to near inexhaustible civilian comm gear
7. EW systems — built with now unavailable Western parts

Russian resupply ability is limited in:

1. Skilled soldiers — some portion of reservists will be invariably better fighters than other, and be suitable for non-disposable infantry units
2. Artillery ammo — limited by production facilities available, and rate of acquisition from NK/Iran/China
3. Old tanks — limited by tank repair plants available, but total amount available is in thousands.

Russian resupply ability is not limited in:

1. Food — sanctions, nor the sabotage operation has touched that yet
2. Fuel — Russia has few large refineries, and unlimited oil. Things may change if the West will freeze catalyst supplies, or something happen to refineries
3. Small arms
4. Civilian vehicles
5. Reserve infantry — for as long as Russians don't arm them with anything more than small arms, and mortars, they can mobilise millions more

Russia is looking at 80%+ decimation of its Army in 2-3 years at current loss rates. Russia is seriously going to be hurting a year from now.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638889293740376069

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638809561045037057

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638801706459734018

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638808120892747776