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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

They can travel almost anywhere - with bodyguards.
Putin can travel to Russian occupied territory, and will be an embarrassment everywhere else.

Putin arrest warrant flouts international law – Medvedev​

The order cannot be executed and highlights the deficiencies of the International Criminal Court, the ex-Russian president said

Read full article here
 
Rollin', rollin', rollin'
Though the streams are swollen
Keep them doggies rollin'
Rawhiiiide...


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Its an established narrative that one with offensive posture has to lose more then the one who is defender. Your narrative is also right we can only discuss the possibilities.

I will try to explain it further. Russians have more losses. To reduce that, instead of going rapidly into bakhmut they are using siege tactics to draw out Ukrainians. While Ukrainians have high zeal and no doubt they are getting the support or partial(Although there are reports that there is very limited support). This also explains that Ukrainians also want bakhmut to be the main focus for Russians to plan their offensive. Better to have full killing war at one side then at multiple fronts. So the Russians and Ukrainian are playing game of chess. Once the mysterious goal is achieved we will see either Russians entirely capturing it or leaving it withdrawing there troops which would only mean it was used as bait or they lost miserably.
......It just won't happen the way you say. And let me explain why.

Ukraine is the one that is defending the city, set aside the casualty ratio. defender enjoy every advantage except for one. That's the attacker enjoy the latitude of deployment, because the deployment area for the attacker is ALWAYS bigger than the defender, for example, Russia can deploy their force 100 meters away from Bakhmut and use those troop to attack, it would be pointless for Ukraine to deploy troop 100 meters away from Bakhmut trying to defend it. Which mean Attacker ALWAYS enjoy numerical superiority if they choose to, because there are more deployment area the attacker have than the defender.

Which mean Ukrainian garrison is going to be smaller. The thing with smaller garrison, you always suffer less casualty because you cannot put a lot of people on the frontline. On the other hand, as long as the road to retreat is not cut off, if Ukraine suffer extreme casualty and playbook dictate they withdraw from Bakhmut and not continue with ts casualty. Which mean the option were there, if Ukraine suffer catastrophic loss, they would rather withdraw to preserve their force and put it elsewhere, then to reinforce the garrison.

Which translate to once the Ukrainian suffer unacceptable losses. They will simply withdraw from Bakhmut and hold on to the next town or defensive line. There are no tangible asset ties into Bakhmut, the reason to stay is not as much as the reason to withdraw. Which mean if Ukraine stay and fight, it would be with their leisure. They can afford to do so and hence they stay, unlike Russia, Russia have to attack to keep the momentum as an invader, Ukraine can defend anywhere, for Ukraine, Bakhmut is probably the same value than as Chariv Yar or Ivanivske Because Russia is not pressing against Ukraine against the wall, it's not like the Russia is on Kyiv doorstep like they did last year, This give Ukraine choice to trade ground with time.
 
https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive...threads/ukraine-russia-conflict.4490/page-789
 

Putin arrest warrant flouts international law – Medvedev​

The order cannot be executed and highlights the deficiencies of the International Criminal Court, the ex-Russian president said

Read full article here

ICC issues a warrant, and this can be executed in several ways.
The normal way would be for Russia to prosecute and convict its own war criminals. If Russia is not doing so, they are committing a crime.

All states and international courts have jurisdiction over war crimes.
It is customary law.
 

Sen. Mark Kelly flew with Russian pilots as a US Navy combat pilot and as a NASA astronaut.​
He said the incident last week where a Russian fighter jet dumped fuel on and then clipped the propeller of a US military drone shows how "reckless" and "incompetent" they are.
"I'm not surprised by this. I mean, I flew with Russian pilots, fighter pilots who couldn't fly formation. And I watched this video, and it's pretty obvious what happened. He lost sight of it, and he crashed into it," Kelly told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" Sunday.​
Kelly compared the fighter jet incident to the "incompetence that we see on the battle field every day in Ukraine."​

Now...What Kelly said goes beyond what happened with the Russian interception/collision with the US MQ UAV. The standard four-ship formation is proven from decades of combat aviation, from air-air to air-ground. If you cannot fly disciplined in two-ship, the four-ship WILL BE ineffective no matter what kind of plane you fly and how much ordnance you carry. In fact, the shiddy four-ship attack force will end up wasting ordnance. No air superiority and no CAS. Undisciplined and/or poorly trained pilots always end up putting onerous workload on the element lead, whether it is two- or four-ship. In a four-ship, the flight leader should have situational awareness (SA) of all planes and that SA comes from what each pilot tells the leader. Undisciplined and/or poorly trained pilots cannot inform with certain what altitude, speed, and heading, making the flight leader guess of where his pilots are, and guesses (hope) is not a viable combat tactic, especially in the air. For Kelly to said that FROM MEMORY that he flew with Russian pilots who could not maintain formation is an indictment of epic proportion against the VKS.
 

......It just won't happen the way you say. And let me explain why.

Ukraine is the one that is defending the city, set aside the casualty ratio. defender enjoy every advantage except for one. That's the attacker enjoy the latitude of deployment, because the deployment area for the attacker is ALWAYS bigger than the defender, for example, Russia can deploy their force 100 meters away from Bakhmut and use those troop to attack, it would be pointless for Ukraine to deploy troop 100 meters away from Bakhmut trying to defend it. Which mean Attacker ALWAYS enjoy numerical superiority if they choose to, because there are more deployment area the attacker have than the defender.

Which mean Ukrainian garrison is going to be smaller. The thing with smaller garrison, you always suffer less casualty because you cannot put a lot of people on the frontline. On the other hand, as long as the road to retreat is not cut off, if Ukraine suffer extreme casualty and playbook dictate they withdraw from Bakhmut and not continue with ts casualty. Which mean the option were there, if Ukraine suffer catastrophic loss, they would rather withdraw to preserve their force and put it elsewhere, then to reinforce the garrison.

Which translate to once the Ukrainian suffer unacceptable losses. They will simply withdraw from Bakhmut and hold on to the next town or defensive line. There are no tangible asset ties into Bakhmut, the reason to stay is not as much as the reason to withdraw. Which mean if Ukraine stay and fight, it would be with their leisure. They can afford to do so and hence they stay, unlike Russia, Russia have to attack to keep the momentum as an invader, Ukraine can defend anywhere, for Ukraine, Bakhmut is probably the same value than as Chariv Yar or Ivanivske Because Russia is not pressing against Ukraine against the wall, it's not like the Russia is on Kyiv doorstep like they did last year, This give Ukraine choice to trade ground with time.
When you shell the city for 6 months, soften up the targets and outshell ukriane 5:1 things are different
 
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