Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Iñigo]

Back to Crimea.

Otto von Bismarck wanted unification with Bavaria, Baden and Württemberg. France did not want it, and wanted to avoid it, and felt strongly after the war in Crimea.

Treaty of Paris (1856) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

And the succession in Spain is the fuse that triggers the crisis.

 

[Ich]

Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian President, has admitted that an audacious drone attack damaged a Russian spy plane at an airbase in his country.
It is the first time that a senior Russian or Belarusian leader has commented on the attack, which was claimed by Belarusian partisans.
Belarus's Belta news agency on Tuesday quoted the President as saying that the aircraft had sustained light damage in the attack.

Do you have a link? All i found there if searched for "A-50" or "spy plane" was this

 

[Vergennes]

@Ich The whole frontline a part from small advances made by Wagner in Bakhmut remain unchanged. Russia's elite forces and cannon fodder mobiks weren't able to break Ukrainian defenses around the Svatove-Kreminna, Kupyansk, Marinka, Zaporijia, Vuhledar and Avdiivka areas. Telegram offensives aren't enough it seems.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633013001040044033

 

[Iñigo]

Crimean War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

France and the UK had been mortal enemies. Rivalry that culminated in Waterloo (1815) where the British imperial power was born.

In the middle of the XIX century they united their efforts to encourage the Ottomans to declare war on Russia.

And surprisingly, the old Crimean War continues to this day.

 

[Ich]

Otto von Bismarck wanted unification with Bavaria, Baden and Württemberg. France did not want it, and wanted to avoid it, and felt strongly after the war in Crimea.

No. Look for "Deutscher Bund".

 

[Iñigo]

OK

---

Russo-Turkish War (1568–1570) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

And following the historical thread of the Crimean War, we come to ...

the first of twelve Russo-Turkish wars ending with World War I in 1914-18

 

[Iñigo]

Thanks

Thanks for the reminder, even I forget how biased European historiography is.

It is evident we forget the German point of view.

Deutscher Bund – Wikipedia

de.m.wikipedia.org

So, seen in this light, Prussia and Austria fought over the Bund, and Prussia's victory over Austria was not to France's liking.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633084712712302594

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633055836707725312

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633081128553795584

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633082183656112128

 

[Iñigo]

key words are "tension - distension", "equilibrium - imbalance", "stability - instability".


Even George Kennan jumped (1997) at the coming madness.

 And

In 2007 it is clear that 'the good old days of the drunken Yeltsin' are over, and in 2008 London and Washington dig up the hatchet and invite Bolshevik Ukraine-1954 to join NATO.

The rest are details.

 

[Ich]

@Ich The whole frontline a part from small advances made by Wagner in Bakhmut remain unchanged. Russia's elite forces and cannon fodder mobiks weren't able to break Ukrainian defenses around the Svatove-Kreminna, Kupyansk, Marinka, Zaporijia, Vuhledar and Avdiivka areas. Telegram offensives aren't enough it seems.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633013001040044033

Hm? In Kreminna direction there is advance. The forests near Kreminna are partly even harder fortified as Bakhmut. In Bakhmut area you can fire ATGM ect. over lots of kilometers, whereas in the Kreminna forest there are trees (really!) what stop atgm after hundred meters or so. So nearly all in the Kreminna forest is close combat. But also under such conditions the RuAF made gains, thin out the Ukro lines bit by bit. Heavy RU guys there.

In the Kupiansk direction RU also made gaines, are at the outskirts. Here the Ukro high command did some "wrong" decisions to take away some troops from Kupiansk region and sent them to Bakhmut. So now RU has more troops and advances around Kupiansk, but me think will first not directly go on Kupiansk, but go around Kupiansk in the north and then in the back of Kupiansk.

Marinka and Avdiivka are also advances for RU. The attacks there are now more flexible, adapted a lot from the Bakhmut going. And has results/advances with it. As i remember we had a short talk about advances of RU passing Avdiivka at the right and make gains in the north of it. And later we saw that there where RU gains cause they filmed a FAB-bombing in Avdiivka on the coal plant from a position what was somewhere near "Becene Vesele" (or what name it has). I posted the vid here.

And Vuhledar, i dont know. Well i know but i dont know why RU think its important. Its a littel thing, has no influence of nearby battlefields. Its just sitting there in the nowhere but heavy fortified. If me would be in charge there i would ignore it. Not "ignore it" in the meaning of "it does not exist", but military. Maybe i would set up a lottery over the whole RU front and the winner gets tasty borschtsch and then get a fly in a Mi-8 over Vuhledar and get filmed shitting on Vuhledar and bring it in the russia news or something like that. Ha! Or let build the arty guys a Trebuchet what can fire these blue 100 liter bins filled with "latrine-soup" into Vuhledar and so on. Just having some fun there. But millitary...do some fortification around and let them sit in their own shit while do some more interesting things in the region.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Do you have a link? All i found there if searched for "A-50" or "spy plane" was this

View attachment 919186View attachment 919187

Here is a link at from ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk ) ->>>> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...ussia-war-latest-news-bakhmut-zelensky-putin/


And here is the screenshot of the article from the same link. I have no idea where you are looking ...

 

[Vergennes]

Hm? In Kreminna direction there is advance. The forests near Kreminna are partly even harder fortified as Bakhmut. In Bakhmut area you can fire ATGM ect. over lots of kilometers, whereas in the Kreminna forest there are trees (really!) what stop atgm after hundred meters or so. So nearly all in the Kreminna forest is close combat. But also under such conditions the RuAF made gains, thin out the Ukro lines bit by bit. Heavy RU guys there.

In the Kupiansk direction RU also made gaines, are at the outskirts. Here the Ukro high command did some "wrong" decisions to take away some troops from Kupiansk region and sent them to Bakhmut. So now RU has more troops and advances around Kupiansk, but me think will first not directly go on Kupiansk, but go around Kupiansk in the north and then in the back of Kupiansk.

Marinka and Avdiivka are also advances for RU. The attacks there are now more flexible, adapted a lot from the Bakhmut going. And has results/advances with it. As i remember we had a short talk about advances of RU passing Avdiivka at the right and make gains in the north of it. And later we saw that there where RU gains cause they filmed a FAB-bombing in Avdiivka on the coal plant from a position what was somewhere near "Becene Vesele" (or what name it has). I posted the vid here.

And Vuhledar, i dont know. Well i know but i dont know why RU think its important. Its a littel thing, has no influence of nearby battlefields. Its just sitting there in the nowhere but heavy fortified. If me would be in charge there i would ignore it. Not "ignore it" in the meaning of "it does not exist", but military. Maybe i would set up a lottery over the whole RU front and the winner gets tasty borschtsch and then get a fly in a Mi-8 over Vuhledar and get filmed shitting on Vuhledar and bring it in the russia news or something like that. Ha! Or let build the arty guys a Trebuchet what can fire these blue 100 liter bins filled with "latrine-soup" into Vuhledar and so on. Just having some fun there. But millitary...do some fortification around and let them sit in their own shit while do some more interesting things in the region.

There's literally no proofs of Russian advances on all those axis (A part from some testosterone telegram posts) a part Bakhmut as every attacks, shown by Ukrainian video/photo evidence showed all previous assault attempts as repelled.

 

[Ich]

There's literally no proofs of Russian advances on all those axis (A part from some testosterone telegram posts) a part Bakhmut as every attacks, shown by Ukrainian video/photo evidence showed all previous assault attempts as repelled.

Well, thats your view. The topic Avdiivka alone, what we were shortly discussed days ago, shows that the Ukrain maping isnt trustwothy. Here is the vid. Fom where is it filmed?

Hmmm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631377729328128010

Maybe you have connections to the france military reconnaissance what you can ask. They have this nice 3D-maping tool with what they analyze the war-vids from the internet.

 

[Paul2]

Bakhmut, not Bakhmut, but I think it's an easy guess what's on Russian GHQ's mind. They failed their originally planned offensive with numerous troop losses, and equipment losses significant enough to say they have no more chances to mount it again. Yet, they take whatever they have left, and are trying to at least pain UAF in a few select places of importance.

Even with 1:5 loss ratio, this can threaten UAF counteroffensive goals. Most importantly, attriting so many cannon fodder left UAF low on ammo for offensive.

Just as I predicted, Russians decided to use their significant cannon fodder resource to make UAF waste much more valuable resource, and tackle them in Bakhmut/Wuhledar/Avdiivka.

Equipment losses are much more painful for Ukraine that to Russia even when Russia is seriously depleted on ground equipment. And ammo losses are even more painful.

Russian capacity for fires have reached the floor, and doesn't seem to be going down now. Ukrainian capacity been limited by number of tubes, and now by ammo again.